I'm bored, let's debunk another martingale gambling strategy! New experiment 🏇!

[stompix]

Update over the weekend, if you're wondering why so few bets, there weren't many favorites as usual

Saturday

Lady Iman  8/15 $1 Lost Archivist 4/6 $3 Win - profit $1.00
Angel Of Anfield 8/13  $1 Lost  Amorim  4/9 $4Win - profit $0.78
Flushing Meadows  2/9  $1 Lost  Circios 8/13 $3 Lost  Tenability 4/5 $6 Win - profit $0.80
Trustyourinstinct 4/9 Win - profit 0.44
Westridge 5/4  $1 Lost  Kalpana 5/6 $2 Lost Lequinto 4/7 $5 Win - profit $0.90
Laser Focus  6/4 $1 Lost  Fareedhat El Izz  11/10 $2 Win - profit $1.20

Day 8: 13 bets, max bet $6, $10 max bankroll needed,  $5.12 profit

Sunday

Mississippi River 6/4 $1 Lost Tenzi  4/5  $2 Lost Laravie 5/6 $5 Win - profit $1.00
Dickens 6/4 Win - profit  $1.50
Song Brocade 4/7  Win - profit  $0.60

Day 9: 5 bets, max bet $5, $8 max bankroll needed,  $3.10 profit

Monday

Try Storm Cat  10/11 Win - profit  $0.90
Wujjood 6/4 - profit  $1.50
Queen Of Steel 11/10 Win - profit  1.10
Rose Of Spain 4/11 $1 Lost  Irish Fighter 10/11 $3 Win - profit $1.70

Day 10: 5 bets, max bet $3, $4 max bankroll needed,  $5.20 profit

Total 119 bets, max bet $80, $130 max bankroll needed,  $54.28 profit

[KTChampions]

Wow, why did I miss this thread (apparently there are few ups, so it rarely appears on the first pages).
Subscribe. And now I will try to answer the questions:

~
Now, obvious questions before the first day
- Loss or profit?  
- How long do you think it will take to reach either?
- And of course, the most important, if this s^&% turns out in profit, would you try it yourself?

-Loss  
- I can calculate the exact number of bets, but I will answer empirically: no, I will not answer, maybe I will write when I find the formula (which describes the length of the segment needed to obtain a series of a certain size), I have it saved somewhere haha.
- I think not, because there are a lot of bets and losing is almost guaranteed. If you double, it will be as cool as winning the lottery with negligible odds.

[stompix]

Wow, why did I miss this thread (apparently there are few ups, so it rarely appears on the first pages).
Subscribe.

I don't want to update it with everyday result, it will look like spam...

- I can calculate the exact number of bets, but I will answer empirically: no, I will not answer, maybe I will write when I find the formula (which describes the length of the segment needed to obtain a series of a certain size), I have it saved somewhere haha.

I have two models ranging from 100 to 2400....so god knows, as one is already wrong!


So here we go :
I will stop adding the odds on wins and ony on 5 chain osses, it's a pain in the ass to copy paste and just adds clog

Tuesday

Runcok  5/4 Win - profit  $1.25
Big Fun 1/6  Win - profit  $0.15
Made All 1/1  Loss -  May Call You Back 4/6 Win - profit  $1.0
Gaoth Chuil 11/10 Loss -  Chourmo 6/5  Loss - Sound Bite 2/5 -   Loss  St Cuthbert's Cave 8/11 -   Loss  - Beyond Dreams  1/1 Win - profit  $1.25
Starford 6/5 Win - profit  $1.20
Pixie Diva 4/6  Loss -  Purple Lily 11/10 - profit  $1.25

Day 11: 12 bets,   $6.10 profit

Wednesday
Well, this one I f&&^ up, I bet on the wrong horse not once but twice..
So no point in showing the runs, just the result (no 5 loss in a row unless you count my stupidity)
Day 12: 16 bets,   $8.5 profit

Thursday

Western Clouds 11/10 Win - profit $1.10
Starshiba 6/5 Loss --   Radiance 5/6 Win - profit $ 1.50
America Queen 11/8  Win - profit $ 1.38
Eclipser  5/4  Loss -  Front Line Fury  4/7 f Win - profit $ 0.71
Palm Beach  5/4 Loss -High Approval 8/11 Loss  Wheresmemoneygone 10/11  Win - profit  $1.20
Inquisition  6/5 Win - profit $1.20
Elly Bay 5/6  Loss -   Jack The Tooth 11/8 Loss - Lequinto 10/11 Loss -  Parkside Lad 1/1 Win - profit $ 1.00
Dictal 10/11 Loss -  Goldwork 4/7 Loss -  Lark In The Mornin 4 /11  Win - profit $ 0.60

Day 13: 17 bets,  $7.49 profit

Friday, trying a new format....sucks , won't use it again after those two days !

Friday

13.35 Win   Kamikaz Du Plessis 11/8
13.58 Win                 Isle Of Sark 4/9
14.15 Loss     Brave Nation 6/4
14.25 loss    Key Of Magic  5/4
14:33 Win                  Keel Strand5/4
15.00 Win                  Staya 5/4
15.15 Win    Stay Gold 1/1
15.43 Win                  Shillanavogy 6/5
16.10 Win                   Windlord  6/4
16.18 Loss               Seeyouinmydreams 5/6
16.46 Loss                   Term Of Endearment 5/6
17.00 Loss    May Call You Back 10/11
17:20 Loss                   Pendragon  4/11
17.30 Win                   Cotai Belle 5/4
18.05 Loss    Kingmaker  11/8
18.30 Loss    Herja  4/9
19.15 Loss    Evolutionist  11/8
19.50 Win    Indian Springs 1/4

Day 14: 18 bets,  $8.20  profit

Saturday

14.30 Loss   The Piper's Call  10/11
14.40 Win   Estrange 2/7
14.48 Win   Mo Of Cairo 1/1
15.48 Loss   Karmology 5/6
16.03 Win   Davvy 6/4
16.17 Win   Daytona 4/5
16.33 Win   Take A Breath 6/4
16.38 Loss   Nardra 1/3
17.20 Win   Storm Piece 10/11
17.30 Loss   Mick Collins 11/10
17.37 Loss   A Mere Bagatelle 6/4
18.00 Loss    De Temps En Temps 5.4
18.18 Loss   Optimatum 8/13
18.23 Win    Silent Applause 1.4
18.30 Loss   Ballysax Hank
18.53 Loss   Elemental Eye 11/10
19.12 Win   Top Gun Tina 6/4

Day 15: 17 bets  $6.35  profit

Total after 15 days!

Total 199 bets, max bet $80, $130 max bankroll needed,  $90.92 profit

[KTChampions]

- I can calculate the exact number of bets, but I will answer empirically: no, I will not answer, maybe I will write when I find the formula (which describes the length of the segment needed to obtain a series of a certain size), I have it saved somewhere haha.

I have two models ranging from 100 to 2400....so god knows, as one is already wrong!
~

Fractional odds are breaking my head. Am I right in assuming that the average odds you bet on are 2.0 (in decimal format)?

This is a version of Martingale with stop loss then doubling the chain so it goes
1/2/4/8/16 loss, you stop -31
2/4/8/16/32  but only 16 times to recover the previous lost bets 2*16>31, if it happens again
4/8/16/32/64 again
8/16/32/64  wipeout will happen in 6 consecutive losses so a least 6 days, far more likely at least 12!

It is quite difficult to calculate the probability of losing even for one day, since it is unknown how many bets you will make on this day. As I understand it, this is a random value. But I can calculate the probability of getting 5 losses in an infinite game: 2⁽⁵⁺¹⁾-2 = 62 bets. This is provided that we have averaged your odds to 2.

So, if you get a loss (5 in a row) every 62 bets, then the minimum value of the total loss will be 62x6=372 bets. But we need to take into account that you can "return" to the previous day. Hmmm... how to do it?
To get back you need 16 wins, so 32 bets on average? So (if I'm not mistaken haha) 32/62 is the probability of your return (looks good, but we don't take into account the bookmaker's margin, let's continue like this for now).
Then everything is simple: the probability that you will not return is the inverse of the probability that you will return. That is, 1 - 32/62 = 30/62. To lose, you need to not return 5 times (from the first doubling to the base, from the second doubling to the first doubling, etc.), so (30/62)⁵ =~ 0.0265 Like 2.65% Oops, no, this is a random walk problem, there are different calculations, because if you return from the 4th day to the 3rd, you start trying to lose from the 3rd day and not from the very beginning.
Thank God 5 is a small number and the solution is known = 1/63
So, if the bookmaker did not take a margin, you would lose approximately in 63 tries with 62 bets, i.e. 3906 bets.

If we take into account the margin, then 1.9⁽⁵⁺¹⁾-2 = 45 bets to get day lost (5 lost bets in a row).
To lose completely you need 63x45 = 2865 bets.

And this is not the final figure yet, in theory it will be even worse. I have to think about how to correctly estimate the probability of wandering - returning to the previous level/doubling the base rate, obviously it is not 50/50 (all the same because of the bookmaker's margin).

I need to rest 

[stompix]

It is quite difficult to calculate the probability of losing even for one day, since it is unknown how many bets you will make on this day. As I understand it, this is a random value. But I can calculate the probability of getting 5 losses in an infinite game: 2⁽⁵⁺¹⁾-2 = 62 bets. This is provided that we have averaged your odds to 2.

So, if you get a loss (5 in a row) every 62 bets, then the minimum value of the total loss will be 62x6=372 bets. But we need to take into account that you can "return" to the previous day.

The minimal value for the lowest model I got is lower, as you need to cut down the timing between them to the average also so it boils down to n=6/(0.5)⁽⁵⁾+5, each chain is not waiting for the average to finish tossing, the worst scenario assumes evey single one of those happens in the middle so half of the bets are voided as they happen after the chain is restarted, what you have is the middle average.

If we take into account the margin, then 1.9⁽⁵⁺¹⁾-2 = 45 bets to get day lost (5 lost bets in a row).
To lose completely you need 63x45 = 2865 bets.

Yup, I got the same on this model, this is the average with average spreads between chain of 5 losses.

I need to rest 

You need to rest a ton because
- When a day has only 4 bets left, there is no betting as no cain would happen
- only two horses starting at 1.10 and losing mean 1+10+100+200+400...
and..
Horse racing is not coin tossing,  , if two horses from the same yard, same sire are going to a claimer race and they are both at 2.2 odds for their races, the first flops , the second will be 3-4x. If a stable has three winners, the odds for their 4th racing horse will go down, if a yard is losing 4 times, the odds will double, a bit like the hand is getting more accurate at tossing over the day.

Anyhow, Sunday was a nearly empty day, Monday and Tuesday as I type, there were no losing chains, I will update this somewhere Thursday or Friday.

[adaseb]

This seems extremely complicated and I’m pretty sure in a long enough timeline you will end up going bust. There is no martingale strategy, which is profitable when time goes to infinity. Trust me. I played dice for a very long time and I tried everything I would use a bot and I would roll 10 reds in a row and then I would go all in on the 11th or the 12th roll and as luck would have it eventually I ended up going bust.

You need to realize that the way betting works, especially for dice is that each bet is completely independent so statistically yes if you have 10 losses in a row, the next roll should be the opposite however, each roll is completely independent of the last roll and this is what most people don’t understand and people have all these strategies and then one day they end up going bust.

I’ve seen way too many people who do Martingale on a small bet such as one dollar and eventually they have 10 losses in a row and they end up blowing $1000 on the last bet losing all their bitcoin.

[Mia Chloe]

~snip

~snip

You're actually right to see the difficulty in calculating daily loss probabilities however it's kinda like a moving target when you don't even know how many bets you'll place. Actually your math on the 5 loss streak (62 bets for 2.00 odds 45 for 1.90) makes sense as a theoretical average for those chains to actually pop up.

But, and this is the big 'but' horse racing doesn't really play like a coin toss. The idea of no chain if there aren't enough bets left in a day or how one stable's results influence subsequent odds kinda proves that actual betting is far more dynamic than simple statistics.

This is because you're actually not just flipping a coin but you're playing a game where the odds and probabilities are constantly shifting based on actual events which is why those losing chains don't just appear on calculation. luck can't really be predicted.

[Jaycoinz]

I still have doubts on martingale theory and principles as it never works for me, and of course I can't waste such funds to keep having that patient to double my bet whenever I lose till I get the right winnings, to me it makes someone's looks so stupid because what if luck aren't on their side to win win as they budgeted or what if they ran out of funds would they still continue gambling till they hit their winning as they initially planned?

I'm not sure that there's someone out there that can confidently say that the martingale strategy works and is profitable. I believe that the system was designed to take from gamblers that use the martingale strategy because it's the fastest way to lose. It's indeed a stupid thing to keep staking after each loss not knowing if you are going to win or lose in the next round. This is for people that have inexhaustible bankroll and no has such

[KTChampions]

It is quite difficult to calculate the probability of losing even for one day, since it is unknown how many bets you will make on this day. As I understand it, this is a random value. But I can calculate the probability of getting 5 losses in an infinite game: 2⁽⁵⁺¹⁾-2 = 62 bets. This is provided that we have averaged your odds to 2.

So, if you get a loss (5 in a row) every 62 bets, then the minimum value of the total loss will be 62x6=372 bets. But we need to take into account that you can "return" to the previous day.

The minimal value for the lowest model I got is lower, as you need to cut down the timing between them to the average also so it boils down to n=6/(0.5)⁽⁵⁾+5, each chain is not waiting for the average to finish tossing, the worst scenario assumes evey single one of those happens in the middle so half of the bets are voided as they happen after the chain is restarted, what you have is the middle average.

Yes, it is logical that the worst case scenario is very different from the average. But we hope that you will not lose earlier than the average and will make at least a small return of the loss with the help of wagering bonuses, hehe.

I need to rest 

You need to rest a ton because
- When a day has only 4 bets left, there is no betting as no cain would happen 1
- only two horses starting at 1.10 and losing mean 1+10+100+200+400... 2
and..
Horse racing is not coin tossing,  , if two horses from the same yard, same sire are going to a claimer race and they are both at 2.2 odds for their races, the first flops , the second will be 3-4x. If a stable has three winners, the odds for their 4th racing horse will go down, if a yard is losing 4 times, the odds will double, a bit like the hand is getting more accurate at tossing over the day. 3

Anyhow, Sunday was a nearly empty day, Monday and Tuesday as I type, there were no losing chains, I will update this somewhere Thursday or Friday.

I'm starting to doubt my understanding of English  I hope this is just a misunderstanding of horse racing (I am not familiar with this topic at all). I understand 1 and 2, as for 3, this is a description of how the odds on horses change depending on the results? Well, like if a boxer loses his first fight to an underdog, then his odds for the next fight change and he himself can become an underdog. Right?

[mindrust]

House edge ensures your loss in the long term. You don’t really need to think that hard to figure this out. Whether you use martingale, reverse martingale, modified martingale, random martingale, martingale’s boyfriend… It doesn’t matter… the house doesn’t care. As long as you are playing, the math works.

Don’t get me wrong thoe, I ain’t saying don’t play at all. You can play occasionally, get lucky and leave. That’s how I do it. As long as you don’t chase your losses, you can’t do no wrong. Be a responsible gambler.

[Haunebu]

Fun little experiment as usual op. I wouldn't really have the patience to place so many bets just to see if this version of Martingale would work or not, but I must admit that I am genuinely curious about the final result.

This strategy would be even better if you placed these bets on less volatile markets which you are extremely familiar with(Totals etc) and similar odds.

[stompix]

I'm starting to doubt my understanding of English   I hope this is just a misunderstanding of horse racing (I am not familiar with this topic at all). I understand 1 and 2, as for 3, this is a description of how the odds on horses change depending on the results? Well, like if a boxer loses his first fight to an underdog, then his odds for the next fight change and he himself can become an underdog. Right?

Yes, but they change even if it's not the same boxer
So you have two horses with the same pedigree, same trainer, same jockey, same odds, in two consecutive races, if the first horse is a flop and a total failure, the second one will jump in odds a ton.

Now if you want to hear somethign funny, there was a race in which the fences were damaged in the previous race, the sun was at a bad angle so instead of 12 or 14 fences they had to jump only 2, the rest would be bypaseds, a horse that was 4x to 5x in the morning became favorite because he was speedy but he was bad at jumping, and, yeah, it won!!!! despite nearly falling at one of the only two fences he had to jump  

House edge ensures your loss in the long term.

House edge is the least of my concerns, this is how betting volatility looks 15 minutes before a race
https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/racecards/2025-07-09/fairyhouse/live-show/867123/irish-stallion-farms-ebf-c-and-g-maiden
Charles Fort   7/4, 13/8, 6/4, 11/8, 5/4, 6/5 5/4
From 2.75 to 2.25, more than any house edge can take!

I wouldn't really have the patience to place so many bets just to see if this version of Martingale would work or not, but I must admit that I am genuinely curious about the final result..

I'm running out of patience myself because things like this happen:
I was planning on betting $1 on the favorite for the experiments and my own bet for my personal enjoyment $20 for a 123 placing on another horse, you can guess what happened:

[KTChampions]

I'm starting to doubt my understanding of English   I hope this is just a misunderstanding of horse racing (I am not familiar with this topic at all). I understand 1 and 2, as for 3, this is a description of how the odds on horses change depending on the results? Well, like if a boxer loses his first fight to an underdog, then his odds for the next fight change and he himself can become an underdog. Right?

Yes, but they change even if it's not the same boxer
So you have two horses with the same pedigree, same trainer, same jockey, same odds, in two consecutive races, if the first horse is a flop and a total failure, the second one will jump in odds a ton.

Now if you want to hear somethign funny, there was a race in which the fences were damaged in the previous race, the sun was at a bad angle so instead of 12 or 14 fences they had to jump only 2, the rest would be bypaseds, a horse that was 4x to 5x in the morning became favorite because he was speedy but he was bad at jumping, and, yeah, it won!!!! despite nearly falling at one of the only two fences he had to jump  

LMAO 
That day was made especially for that horse 

Overall, quite interesting information, as I already said, I am not familiar with horse racing and betting on it at all. Now it is clear why this sport has its own stable audience of fans.
In your opinion, does increased volatility in odds give betters a chance to use it somehow? Or do bookmakers take a big margin because of this? I remember checking men's and women's tennis and in women's (where volatility is always higher) the bookmaker's margin was on average 8% (a couple of percent higher than in men's).

[stompix]

Monday

Penelope's Sister 11/8  Stumps Or Slips 4/7 Win
Handlethekettle  6/4  Win
Janworth 11/8  Vicar Street 1/1 Win
Day 16: 5 bets,   $3.25 profit

Tuesday

Penn Avenue 5/6 Win
Silk And Steel  11/10 Analogical 6/4  Win
Magnetic North  10/11  Seo Linn  8/13 Hope Rising  5/4  Win
Ballytechno  10/11 Win
Day 17: 7 bets,   $4.20 profit

Wednesday

Zighy  4/7 Stardinia  11/8
Majaz 2/9 Wonderfulwonderful  11/10 Cosmic Soul  11/10
Crown's Lady  11/8 Charles Fort 5/4  Granite Bay 11/8 Goodie Two Shoes  11/8
Sunset Strip 6/5 Shakazia  4/6
Gaga Mate  11/8  Skimmer 6/5
Day 18: 13 bets,   $5.30 profit

Thursday

Scandinavia (USA) 11/8
Hey Tru Blue 10/11
Maximized 6/4 Mystical Storm 5/6
Nivelle's Magic 11/10 Khafiz  1/4
Special Thanks  4/7 Opera Ballo  11/8
Amelia Earhart  11/8 Timeforshowcasing 6/5
Beaming Light 6/4  Bonus Time  5/6 Vera's Secret  11/8
Day 19: 13 bets,   $6.90 profit

Friday

Venetian Sun  2/5
Front Line Fury  8/11  Aylin  8/11 January  6/4  Classic Encounter  11/8  Distant Storm 5/6
Luker's Tipple  5/6 Sunny South West  5/4
Calico Blue 4/6
Brave By reflection 10/11
Reiki Revolution  5/4 Miss Herschel  8/11 Happy Jacky  1/1
Day 20: 13 bets,   $6.10 profit

Saturday

Haatem  11/10 Sidney Reilly  5/4
Angelight  6/4 More Thunder  6/5
Chiringita 6/4
Al Qareem  4/7
Italy 4/6 Game Point  8/11 Mount Atlas 5/4
Spring Dance 8/13
Woodshaw Whisper  5/4 F Marvelman  6/4 A Bit Of Spirit  4/11
Utmost Respect  1/4
Latynina 11/8
Day 21: 15 bets,   $8.35 profit

Sunday

Star Of Sapphire  4/5
Killeaney Bear  5/6
Cinammon Roll  4/9
Cj's Darling  6/5
Nautical Force 1/4    Arduis Invicta  11/8 Slievegar 11/8 Wasdell Dundalk  11/10 One Horse Town  4/11
Whatyouwaitingfor  4/11 Therapist 5/4
Miss Justice 8/13
Day 22: 12 bets,   $5.75 profit


Total 277 bets, max bet $80, $130 max bankroll needed,  $130.77 profit

In your opinion, does increased volatility in odds give betters a chance to use it somehow? Or do bookmakers take a big margin because of this? I remember checking men's and women's tennis and in women's (where volatility is always higher) the bookmaker's margin was on average 8% (a couple of percent higher than in men's).

I don't think bookies really take advantage of this, with such volatility, you're most of the time concerned with market fluctuations rather than the house edge, and if they do use these fluctuations to cover a bigger share it's hard to look into, it's easy when you ahve a 1x2 result, it's almsot impossible without a script to check what the house edge is in when you have 10 horses with odds going up and down like crazy.
So, no I have no clue! 

[stompix]

So update! We had a loss !

I also got a script for the odds, I won't be needing to make the math before each bet, the script will automatically calculate the bet needed for a +1 win based on the values I put in the and the current odds, so no more .37, or 1.76 in winning
Basically the whole week was just recovering from a terrible loss at very bad odds

Monday

Sophia Rose /  Centara 10/11
Penelope's Sister 1 /1
Jazz De Cotte 6/5
Queen Kate 1/8
Betty Dutton  / Elemental Eye / Benvenuto Cellini 6/4
Our Zebo /Tribal Nation / India Love / Hayynah / Displaying  LOSS
Competizione 1/7
This one hurt because of the odds  $72 LOSS
Day 23: 14bets,   $- 67 !

Tuesday, double bets

Dunkeld Dreamer 6/4
Persian Daughter 1/2
Pearl Fortune 8/15
Daretobedifferent / Kamikaz Du Plessis 8/13
Charging Thunder  / Spendmore Lane / Miss Gitana /  Shania 8/15
Closutton 6/4
Day 24: 10 bets,    $12 Profit,  left to cover -$55 !


Wednesday

Rajak  4/9
Made All 6/5
Dark Alley 4/6
Gillali Lass / Joueuse Royale  / Miss Yechance 4/6
Dial Me In / Iron Fist 5/4
First Time / Schrodinger's Cat / Red Letter 8/11
Day 25: 11 bets,   $12 Profit ,  left to cover  -$43!

Thursday

Rogue Supremacy 8/11
Noble Horizon 2/9
Guiteau /  Silent City / Polygram / Sallaal 4/6
Fairy Oak 10/11
Jubilant 5/4
Emily Love 6/4
Victorious One / Unwanted Attention / Jiff's Army 6/4
Kopa Kilana / Purview / Giselles Defence 5/4
Betty's Tiara / Galileo Sand 8/11
Walk The Highline / Crimson Spirit 8/11
Palpatate 11/10
Day 26: 20 bets,   $22 Profit ,  left to cover -$21!

Friday

Ruby's Angel / Novello Lad11/10
Sing The Blues   / Nurburgring 8/13
Wise Approach 11/10
Headmaster 2/5
Quadrillion / Beir Bua / Ascending Star / Scoville 1/8
Double Rush / Angelo Pio / Nahraan 10/11
Day 27: 13 bets,   $12 Profit ,  left to cover -$9!

Saturday

True Love  1/2
Goyard 30/100
Havana Hurricane / Minnie Hauk 2/11
Al Riffa 4/5
Bumpy Evans 11/10
Egoli 6/4
Spirited Style 5/4
Day 28: 8 bets,   $14 Profit ,  Overall recovered +5$ profit

Total 353 bets, max bet $80, $130 max bankroll needed,  $135.77 profit

[KTChampions]

~
Total 353 bets, max bet $80, $130 max bankroll needed,  $135.77 profit

So you're back to level one and the bet is $1 again? Nice  

In your opinion, does increased volatility in odds give betters a chance to use it somehow? Or do bookmakers take a big margin because of this? I remember checking men's and women's tennis and in women's (where volatility is always higher) the bookmaker's margin was on average 8% (a couple of percent higher than in men's).

I don't think bookies really take advantage of this, with such volatility, you're most of the time concerned with market fluctuations rather than the house edge, and if they do use these fluctuations to cover a bigger share it's hard to look into, it's easy when you ahve a 1x2 result, it's almsot impossible without a script to check what the house edge is in when you have 10 horses with odds going up and down like crazy.
So, no I have no clue!  

I will try to do fast check. I see this:


1. Hope And Glory (9) - 4.00

2. Lombardi Lass (1) - 3.80

3. Champ De Mars (3) - 7.50

4. Imabarbiegirl (4) - 6.50

5. Giza (6) - 4.75

6. Back In A Tik (7) - 61.00

7. Commandoro ( - 3.90

8. Consorting One (2) - 51.00

9. Really Satisfies (5) - 151.00

from here https://sportsbet.io/sports/event/thoroughbred/australia/moruya/broulee-brewhouse-class-1-handicap-0010804ee500000000000000

There are a lot of unclear outcomes for me haha, I chose the simplest one - victory.
Hmmmm... I recalculated twice and the bookmaker's margin here is not small at all - almost 24%!  
After football and tennis, I find it hard to perceive such figures. Although in fact, it is very logical and fits into the pattern where the higher the volatility, the higher the bookmaker's margin.

[stompix]

from here https://sportsbet.io/sports/event/thoroughbred/australia/moruya/broulee-brewhouse-class-1-handicap-0010804ee500000000000000

There are a lot of unclear outcomes for me haha, I chose the simplest one - victory.
Hmmmm... I recalculated twice and the bookmaker's margin here is not small at all - almost 24%!  

Yeah, everyone gets surprised a bit by that but I got so used to it as I'm chasing horses that win or place, not single values (unlike in this experiment)

It does look pretty bad on paper, now you're going by implied probability, everything over 20 is cannon fodder, so those would be wiping a bit of % of those, closer to 20%, so closer to what I am used to. Usually, they are around 20% for grade races, including that extra baggage,
https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/results/2025-07-19/newbury/869007/hallgarten-and-novum-wines-hackwood-stakes-group-3
go lower in grade and expect to encounter 30%
https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/results/2025-07-20/redcar/869048/racing-tv-apprentice-handicap
higher volume, festival races, and maybe maybe they will hit 12-15%.

[rachael9385]

House edge ensures your loss in the long term. You don’t really need to think that hard to figure this out. Whether you use martingale, reverse martingale, modified martingale, random martingale, martingale’s boyfriend… It doesn’t matter… the house doesn’t care. As long as you are playing, the math works.

Don’t get me wrong thoe, I ain’t saying don’t play at all. You can play occasionally, get lucky and leave. That’s how I do it. As long as you don’t0 chase your losses, you can’t do no wrong. Be a responsible gambler.

What's this reverse system? From what I'm aware of they said it's a betting system in which the success of the bet being place is determined by the opposite of that prediction. For example if you placed a bet on a multi correct score of 0:1, and 0:0 the outcomes should be opposite of the predictions, if the match turns out to be any of these you have lost the bet. Is this what is known as reverse betting?

[stompix]

House edge ensures your loss in the long term. You don’t really need to think that hard to figure this out. Whether you use martingale, reverse martingale,

What's this reverse system? From what I'm aware of they said it's a betting system in which the success of the bet being place is determined by the opposite of that prediction. For example if you placed a bet on a multi correct score of 0:1, and 0:0 the outcomes should be opposite of the predictions, if the match turns out to be any of these you have lost the bet. Is this what is known as reverse betting?

It has nothig to do with probbality, it's just the betting pattern that is in reverse
So instead of win> return to bet, loss > double the bet, you do the opposite, win> double the bet, loss, return to bet.
It aims at actually taking advantage of huge chains, as you bet with 1, win 2, you bet all your winnings, you win 4, you bet 4 you win 8.....and you set a limit at 1024 or whatever...

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Only two days have passed so I'm not updating the table, not worth it but there was no loss anyhow!

[Haunebu]

Hmmmm... I recalculated twice and the bookmaker's margin here is not small at all - almost 24%! 
After football and tennis, I find it hard to perceive such figures. Although in fact, it is very logical and fits into the pattern where the higher the volatility, the higher the bookmaker's margin.

Yeah. Sportsbet.io margins on several sports markets are ridiculous and laughable frankly speaking. Only some of their sports markets like soccer have low margins baked into them since that sport is their priority.

I tend to find way better odds with way lower juice on almost all sports markets in betting exchanges(Via betting brokers) and Pinnacle. Polymarket provides epic odds too upto a certain liquidity.