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Author Topic: USD WEAKNESS: EUR/USD Hits 1.15 — What’s Next?  (Read 154 times)
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June 23, 2025, 08:52:29 AM
 #1

Noticed something lately? The dollar's losing ground fast. EUR/USD just touched 1.15 -  and that’s not just a chart blip.

Markets are reacting to the Fed's recent shift in tone, growing debt concerns, and rising talk of de-dollarization across global trade. While inflation might look tame on paper, underlying confidence in the USD isn’t what it used to be.

This has serious implications-  not just for forex traders, but for global asset flows, commodity pricing, and of course… Bitcoin.

If the dollar continues to slide, do we see more capital rotate into BTC as a hedge? Or will macro uncertainty push people toward traditional safe havens?

any thoughts  Huh
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June 23, 2025, 09:48:18 AM
 #2

Markets seem to mostly react to erratic US leadership, especially given that trade relations have become unreliable. Personally I believe we'll see more capital rotate into BTC as a hedge, however further decline of the EUR/USD exchange rate and loss of purchasing power will likely minimize a lot of the gains in practical terms (short of the mother of all spikes coming up, which may or may not occur).
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June 23, 2025, 11:23:57 AM
 #3

The exchange rates don't exactly show weakness or strength though. The purchasing power does.

Markets are reacting to the Fed's recent shift in tone, growing debt concerns, and rising talk of de-dollarization across global trade. While inflation might look tame on paper, underlying confidence in the USD isn’t what it used to be.
That's true. But another thing to consider is energy price which directly affects the global economy.

If the dollar continues to slide, do we see more capital rotate into BTC as a hedge? Or will macro uncertainty push people toward traditional safe havens?
If history is any indication (COVID19 pandemic, Russia/NATO war) when global economy is collapsing, bitcoin tends to crash as well. And gold is going to thrive instead.

About 10 days ago Trump regime went rogue and declared war on Iran but has been at war with the country using a proxy until yesterday when they made it public.
Oil is already reaching $80 from $65-ish so far.

But now that Trump has admitted to being behind the terrorist attacks against Iranian people, we may start entering a new phase where Iran starts retaliating by directly destroying all US assets globally starting by those located in oil and gas rich dictatorships around Persian Gulf. If that happens, we will see a surge in energy price which if escalated can lead to a global economic catastrophe.

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June 23, 2025, 06:14:41 PM
 #4

any thoughts  Huh
There are many War which are influencing the price of dollar . Israel and Palestine war had bad effects on economy and many markets collapse after that because we saw big destruction in the Palestine. America want to establish their economy by doing attack on Iran but Iran country will not give up and Trump will not get anything in this War because Iran is strong nation . Pakistan could be involve after that because America could attack on Pakistan and Dollar value will go down and down after that . We saw oil prices globally which increased due to Iran War and America could not get lesson after losing War in Afghanistan and dollar is going to weak in this year.

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June 23, 2025, 07:07:48 PM
 #5

The dollar's losing ground fast. EUR/USD just touched 1.15 -  and that’s not just a chart blip.

One way or another D Trump wanted to lower the value of the $. If the Feds won't lower their rates the tariffs will do as fine.
Together with the erosion of trust: Such as the inquiry about if the USA is capable of shutting down f35s?   
JD Vance's speech did contribute to the erosion.

Next Nato Session is about will the US come to and stand by the EU once Russia goes against Poland, Georgia or the Baltikum?

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June 25, 2025, 09:35:19 PM
 #6

Noticed something lately? The dollar's losing ground fast. EUR/USD just touched 1.15 -  and that’s not just a chart blip.

Markets are reacting to the Fed's recent shift in tone, growing debt concerns, and rising talk of de-dollarization across global trade. While inflation might look tame on paper, underlying confidence in the USD isn’t what it used to be.

This has serious implications-  not just for forex traders, but for global asset flows, commodity pricing, and of course… Bitcoin.

If the dollar continues to slide, do we see more capital rotate into BTC as a hedge? Or will macro uncertainty push people toward traditional safe havens?

any thoughts  Huh

It has drifting down for a while now and almost in correlation with the election of Donald Trump. He definitely has a desire to see it drop because he wants to build up a manufacturing base that will perform best when the currency is weaker. I have no idea how much further it will fall but he is definitely undermining it at every turn, especially his attacks on the central bank governor (who he elected) - that sort of instability is definitely going to depress the dollar even more. Personally as someone who is outside the US it looks like a buying opportunity when comparing historical trends of currencies, as the USD as generally been gaining ground on all other currencies up until this point. Trump is a blip that will evaporate, but he can do a lot of damage in his remaining 3.5 years so it is a fine balancing act when it comes to investing more in American businesses.

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June 25, 2025, 09:57:19 PM
 #7

Ive heard Euro vs Yen as a better signal for market direction but my normal reaction to weakness of one side is to expect the Euro or ECB attempt to rebase themselves lower vs dollar.
   That would be normally but if Trump continues to attempt to restrict normal lines of commerce it would reduce the incentive towards a weaker currency by which to export to USA and benefits from encouraging trade now blocked.

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June 26, 2025, 05:41:58 AM
 #8

Noticed something lately? The dollar's losing ground fast. EUR/USD just touched 1.15 -  and that’s not just a chart blip.

Markets are reacting to the Fed's recent shift in tone, growing debt concerns, and rising talk of de-dollarization across global trade. While inflation might look tame on paper, underlying confidence in the USD isn’t what it used to be.

This has serious implications-  not just for forex traders, but for global asset flows, commodity pricing, and of course… Bitcoin.

If the dollar continues to slide, do we see more capital rotate into BTC as a hedge? Or will macro uncertainty push people toward traditional safe havens?

any thoughts  Huh
You're right to notice the shift — but let’s put it in context.

EUR/USD is still trading 50–60% below its historical highs, so this "dollar weakness" isn’t unprecedented. We've seen this movie before. Every few years, traders pile into the euro thinking the U.S. economy is finally cracking — usually on the back of inflation fears, Fed dovishness, or structural debt concerns.

This time it's inflation again, and the Fed’s soft pivot has clearly spooked dollar bulls. But let’s not forget: Europe has its own structural problems — sluggish growth, political fragmentation, and a dependency on global trade.

As for Bitcoin? If the dollar keeps sliding and real yields drop further, we might see more rotation into BTC. But during high macro uncertainty, capital still leans toward traditional safety: Treasuries, gold, and the dollar itself in liquidity crunches. BTC usually catches the bid after the panic phase — not during it.

So yeah, weakness in the dollar matters — but let’s not jump the gun on BTC becoming the automatic hedge just yet.
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June 26, 2025, 07:18:10 AM
 #9

When USD/EUR bleeds 0.86 (EUR/USD is 1.17 now), it is not noise more, it is a signal. Dollars allay is more than just Fed policy trunnion, it is tectonic. Global debt is ballooning, BRICS is pushing other possibilities, and the treasury is urging a decrease. That pop band hits confidence hard.

From younger capital, yep, Bitcoin might get love as a digital hard asset. But you can not deny still Gold got muscle for oldschool crowd. It feels like a carfax moment, if DXY dips below 100, we could see real spinning into non USD stores of value.

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June 26, 2025, 07:04:07 PM
 #10

From younger capital, yep, Bitcoin might get love as a digital hard asset. But you can not deny still Gold got muscle for oldschool crowd. It feels like a carfax moment, if DXY dips below 100, we could see real spinning into non USD stores of value.

So far nothing extraordinary, Extraordinary is the average age of Bitcoin Holders:
https://stilt.com/data/vast-majority-crypto-buyers-millennials-gen-z/

18 to 40. Which is nice to see.

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June 27, 2025, 04:21:33 AM
 #11

I prefer to monitor the DXY to get a better idea of how the dollar is doing in the world, and we are seeing a steady downtrend since the peak of January where it $110. The exact explanation of this isn't clear to me, but the most immediate would be the one linked to the US10Y. The long term debt is still not being bought and it's stuck at 4%+ yield, so people are dumping the dollar because the market isn't buying US's debt. The good side to this is that typically BTC pumps on DXY weakness, even if sometimes BTC dumps on DXY weakness (as it did on Q1) but now it has decoupled and DXY continues to dump as BTC pumps.
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June 27, 2025, 04:31:27 AM
 #12

Noticed something lately? The dollar's losing ground fast. EUR/USD just touched 1.15 -  and that’s not just a chart blip.

Markets are reacting to the Fed's recent shift in tone, growing debt concerns, and rising talk of de-dollarization across global trade. While inflation might look tame on paper, underlying confidence in the USD isn’t what it used to be.

This has serious implications-  not just for forex traders, but for global asset flows, commodity pricing, and of course… Bitcoin.

If the dollar continues to slide, do we see more capital rotate into BTC as a hedge? Or will macro uncertainty push people toward traditional safe havens?

any thoughts  Huh

It's great to see that an unreliable country is slowly getting pushed out of the game. It wouldn't happen overnight. But US leaders are being immature in many aspects starting from tariff and shadow war etc. Also it is not good for the world to have one country ruling over the rest. So I see it as a hugely positive sign for the world economy.

Bitcoin should be impacted by this considering we always calculate it's market price on the basis of dollars. But as the fundamental strength isn't changing for Bitcoin, the impact will be temporary. More and more people will start showing interest in Bitcoin as a hedge.
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June 27, 2025, 04:45:26 AM
 #13

There are many War which are influencing the price of dollar . Israel and Palestine war had bad effects on economy and many markets collapse after that because we saw big destruction in the Palestine. America want to establish their economy by doing attack on Iran but Iran country will not give up and Trump will not get anything in this War because Iran is strong nation . Pakistan could be involve after that because America could attack on Pakistan and Dollar value will go down and down after that . We saw oil prices globally which increased due to Iran War and America could not get lesson after losing War in Afghanistan and dollar is going to weak in this year.
Keep in mind that wars and uprisings between Iran and Israel can have a negative economic impact but they never have a positive impact, so in that case the dollar may fall in value. But currently we are seeing that the dollar is falling in the global market and the euro is rising, and this complication is mainly due to uncertainty about the independence of the US Federal Reserve. Also I understand that Trump's statement could create significant uncertainty in the direction of US interest rates. Even at present a significant fact is that since the value of the dollar, i.e. the weakness of the stable currency USD, therefore in this conflict many may prefer Bitcoin as a hedge.

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Pakar11220
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June 27, 2025, 05:25:47 AM
 #14

As the US dollar's value continues to decline, it's likely that we will see increased volatility in the global assest flows, espacially in commodities and cryptocurrencies like BTC. This situation may lead to diverging monetary policies, economic growth differentials and shifting market sentiment. In this environment, investors may increasingly seek safe-haven assets like Bitcoin, which could potencially benefit from the dollar's decline. It's crucial to monitor the changing economic landscape and adjust investment strategies accordingly.
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June 27, 2025, 11:52:47 AM
 #15

I prefer to monitor the DXY to get a better idea of how the dollar is doing in the world, and we are seeing a steady downtrend since the peak of January where it $110. The exact explanation of this isn't clear to me, but the most immediate would be the one linked to the US10Y. The long term debt is still not being bought and it's stuck at 4%+ yield, so people are dumping the dollar because the market isn't buying US's debt. The good side to this is that typically BTC pumps on DXY weakness, even if sometimes BTC dumps on DXY weakness (as it did on Q1) but now it has decoupled and DXY continues to dump as BTC pumps.

We are living in times where 4% is a catastrophe.

Quote from:  Wikipedia
...before Black Tuesday. Further action failed to halt the fall, which continued until July 8, 1932; by then, the stock market had lost some 90% of its pre-crash value

Seen in: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_Street_crash_of_1929

Sure the people/companies holding x amount of millions/billions in US $ are close to a heart attack.  

While a weak $ benefits the goods you export in US$: that is the strategy DT is looking for,

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