Kalshi, polymarket's rival?

[Botnake]

It's a betting market valued at $2 billion, so it's actually a big deal. Since it's US-based, it's most likely regulated.

So is this the one that could take down traditional sportsbooks, or is it just an alternative?
Has anyone here tried betting using this platform or at least on Polymarket?

I believe Polymarket isn’t licensed, but this one is.

Kalshi valued at $2 billion in latest funding round, CEO says

Kalshi has raised $185 million in a funding round that values the prediction marketplace at $2 billion, its CEO Tarek Mansour said in a post on X on Wednesday.
The round was led by crypto-focused investor Paradigm, Mansour said. Investment firms Sequoia, Multicoin, Neo and Bond Capital, and Citadel Securities CEO Peng Zhao also participated.

[_act_]

I believe Polymarket isn’t licensed, but this one is.

Polymarket has good reputation and not just about license. I understand that scammers can easily get a site and have their own gambling products and services to scam people but Polymarket is not like that. Also no site is dominating Polymarket as of now in the prediction market. They get good reputation from their past services.

[TastyChillySauce00]

Kalshi is a licensed prediction market in US. That's why majority of US people used it instead of Polymarket, which is not available in US.
It is Polymarket's major rival. it has pretty good interface, and quite big volume. The negative is that KYC is a mandatory unlike Polymarket.

For people who has privacy concern, Polymarket seems better. The problem is that it has so many scam market created by the insiders kinda different with Kalshi, which is strictly monitored by CFTC.

[Cointxz]

Kalshi is a licensed prediction market in US. That's why majority of US people used it instead of Polymarket, which is not available in US.
It is Polymarket's major rival. it has pretty good interface, and quite big volume. The negative is that KYC is a mandatory unlike Polymarket.

For people who has privacy concern, Polymarket seems better. The problem is that it has so many scam market created by the insiders kinda different with Kalshi, which is strictly monitored by CFTC.

Correct. It’s Polymarket main rival for US customers since there’s still some US citizens that secretly using polymarket due to anonymous feature.

I believe it’s existence is not a big threat to current bookie since they are the same with polymarket while the existence of polymarket itself doesn’t even affect the operations of traditional sportsbook.

[Agbamoni]

So is this the one that could take down traditional sportsbooks, or is it just an alternative?

Do we really need to go back to this discussion? Polymarket have been making wave, since its origination but I've never replaced traditional sportsbook, I done see how Kalshi plans to do it, even if it is licensed. The license can also be the reason why people will prefer the Polymarket over them. Traditional sportsbooks will always remain the lead.

I believe Polymarket isn’t licensed, but this one is.

I understand the problem they are trying to solve which is why they got licensed. But the disadvantage here is, they could be shit down or restricted by regulators at any time.

[Wapfika]

I believe Polymarket isn’t licensed, but this one is.

I understand the problem they are trying to solve which is why they got licensed. But the disadvantage here is, they could be shit down or restricted by regulators at any time.

They will not get the license if they will not comply with regulators in regular basis.

US license is the most strict and hardest to acquire that’s why only few international services wants to operate on US. There’s no way they will not comply to US requirements once they already have the license.

And also there’s no way for regulators to shutdown this business if they are compliant with the guidelines.

[DPHOR]

Can't say for sure but as I know and believe the market that anything is possible, I can't assumed it would dominate the Polymarket but it is with time, I could remembered when I started hearing about cryptocurrency exchange Binance was least to mention but as time keeps going they improve on their operations which includes; security, the type of currency/token, coin they do list on their platform. Today you can't talk about exchange without at least mentioning Binance as top 1 or top 2 global leading trading platform, so I believe that is what would happened on both sites you comparing with. Currently Polymarket has gained trust on the globe than any other predictions market and even though we don't know much other predictions market but currently they more much in people's hearts.

[cabron]

When is this prediction market up and running?  Never heard of it til now.

If its for US citizens then its going to be for them only. Poly is a lot popular though, though it had gone to investigation I think its working alright still. What could be listed in Kalshi may also be in Poly so there might be the need to calculate the average for the betting percentage in these platforms already.

[sokani]

I'm just hearing the name "Kalshi" for the first time. It's good to have some sort of competition in the space, but I do not see it dethroning Polymarket anytime soon. Polymaket is also US-based and has made quite a reputation for itself.

Also, I do not think they're going to rival traditional sportsbooks because their markets are quite different. These platforms offer predictions based on future events, while sportsbooks offer predictions based on sporting events.

[rdluffy]

To tell you the truth, I'd never heard of this new service, but I went to the website and it's very similar to Polymarket
The website is: https://kalshi.com/

I believe they will get a good slice of the market, since Polymarket has blocked access to users in the United States, and Kalshi will take exactly that market

Even on their own website they reinforce this part of the regulation:

Before Kalshi, markets that allowed you to trade on economically relevant events were illegal or unregulated. From day 1, we decided to take the harder path: build a fully regulated exchange with a deep commitment to compliance.

[Hispo]

I believe Polymarket isn’t licensed, but this one is.

Polymarket has good reputation and not just about license. I understand that scammers can easily get a site and have their own gambling products and services to scam people but Polymarket is not like that. Also no site is dominating Polymarket as of now in the prediction market. They get good reputation from their past services.

Sometimes there are people who under-estimate the value of reputation and history for people, special when comes to gamblers and bettors who are supposed to trust their money to a centralized entity most of the times.
I have known about services and websites which are legally not regulated and following the will and whim of regulators, and yet they have managed to build a spotless reputation and story among their clients. It reminds me the case of mixers like Chipmixer, which was pretty much in a grey area in the eyes of authorities, but even though they did not have any license or documents issued by authorities, they managed to get a good monthly volume in a relatively short period of time.

So, even though this platform have licenses Polymarket already have a good advantage over this new website.

[goldkingcoiner]

I have only recently heard of Polymarket, so I am surprised to hear there is a US-licensed version already. What even are prediction markets? They seem like some kind of soon-to-fade fad to me. How can they possibly predict anything? Sounds like false advertising to me.

They way they work is basically setting up a yes or no poll on whether an event will happen. People vote yes or no and at the same time, make their bet?

Where does the prediction part come in? 

[BABY SHOES]

This is the first time I've heard about the Kalshi betting market like the Polymarket platform... who actually first since this platform Kalshi or Polymarket appeared?

Moreover, Kalsi is based in the US, so other than the US it will usually be difficult to play there, including Polymarket has never bet there.

So far I think more people know Polymarket even though they don't have this license like an anonymous platform, right?
So this might be a tough competitor.

[AmoreJaz]

To tell you the truth, I'd never heard of this new service, but I went to the website and it's very similar to Polymarket
The website is: https://kalshi.com/

I believe they will get a good slice of the market, since Polymarket has blocked access to users in the United States, and Kalshi will take exactly that market

Even on their own website they reinforce this part of the regulation:

Before Kalshi, markets that allowed you to trade on economically relevant events were illegal or unregulated. From day 1, we decided to take the harder path: build a fully regulated exchange with a deep commitment to compliance.

For sure, once bettors of polymarket learned about this new site, they would check this out. As the market is getting big for this kind of betting, they would surely get some part of it. And yes, for those who can't access the Polymarket site, they will try this out. Though I only know this site because of this thread, if they will have nice feedback from users, they would get some bettors because of this publicity.

[cryptoaddictchie]

I believe Polymarket isn’t licensed, but this one is.

Kalshi valued at $2 billion in latest funding round, CEO says

Its my first time hearing this Project or Company and did some research about it.

It seems they are expanding into sports market such as NBA, NFL, and MLB. Since its regulated and got a huge backed funding, I guess they can not only be a threat to Polymarket but gonna be a serious competitor. This might go global as it assure some healthy traction.

[Reatim]

I believe Polymarket isn’t licensed, but this one is.

Polymarket has good reputation and not just about license. I understand that scammers can easily get a site and have their own gambling products and services to scam people but Polymarket is not like that. Also no site is dominating Polymarket as of now in the prediction market. They get good reputation from their past services.

unless the new platform has some crazy or unique feature that polymarket doesn’t have i doubt it will replace polymarket because polymarket is already very famous and well known and it’s hard to take down a platform that’s associated with betting on outrageous evente

[$crypto$]

There is another Polymarket competitor and that is Kalshi? It seems like this kind of betting market will continue to have imitators.

I have seen something similar to the Polymarket betting market before but forgot the name and it is still in development they seem to be launching a token --- but I myself do not follow much about this.

But if Kalshi already has a value of $ 2 billion, then this betting market is quite large.

[OgNasty]

Interesting.  I've never heard of Kalshi, but I have always wondered why Polymarket seems to be the only game in town.  It's crazy that a project stemming from Polygon became so popular while the actual coin/chain has been falling like a rock for years.  Granted, Polymarket has branched out beyond Polygon, but it is still a bit shocking that nothing sprung up to replace it yet.  I guess that shows they do a good job and have a good customer base.  Kalshi definitely has room to grow some market share though and I'm sure some more prediction markets are on the way.

[freedomgo]

That means this is even bigger than Polymarket, which is only valued at $1 billion.

Polymarket nears Founders Fund-led funding at over $1 billion valuation, source says

June 24 (Reuters) - Polymarket is close to raising $200 million in a funding round that values the world's biggest prediction market at more than $1 billion, a person familiar with the matter told Reuters on Tuesday.

Same with Kalshi, they also raised additional capital to grow the business. The fact that they were able to raise that much says a lot about the confidence investors have in their future. It’s a good sign that we now have two major players competing. This kind of competition gives gamblers better options and pushes the space forward.

[rdluffy]

I believe Polymarket isn’t licensed, but this one is.

Polymarket has good reputation and not just about license. I understand that scammers can easily get a site and have their own gambling products and services to scam people but Polymarket is not like that. Also no site is dominating Polymarket as of now in the prediction market. They get good reputation from their past services.

unless the new platform has some crazy or unique feature that polymarket doesn’t have i doubt it will replace polymarket because polymarket is already very famous and well known and it’s hard to take down a platform that’s associated with betting on outrageous evente

Kalshi's biggest advantage is the license to operate in the United States market, and that's a big advantage

The North American market is very large, there is a lot of money and demand for betting
Offering the service legally, without users having to use VPNs and without risk, is already the biggest advantage they have for this market.

For the rest of the world, I doubt they'll change Polymarket as there's no reason to, and they'll probably need to do KYC, so at least from everything I've understood, they're a US-based company.