⚽ Sportsbet.io ⚽ Bundesliga ⚽ Football Pool Discussion Thread 2025/2026

[cygan]

in less than 9 hours the 12th matchday in the bundesliga starts with the game mönchengladbach vs. leipzig and the battle for the top ranks begins again
to make sure that all pool participants submit their picks in time, here is a reminder for all those who are missing out:

Code: Kanapka buwaytress el che Saint-loup B1g4udge morvillz7z Unknown01 Trofo cryptofrka

as i unfortunately heard from jeremypwr, there will be no more free bets on sportsbet.io - even the one from the last matchday was unfortunately not credited to Kanapka

[mv1986]

@Unknown01 did you already sent your appreciation to Fábio Vieira for scoring that goal against Stuttgart in minute 94' while being one man down, thereby stealing the overall win for this weekend from me? If I understand this correctly, there will be no more free bets anyway, is that right? But for my ego as someone who thinks of himself to have an idea about the German Bundesliga, it would have been nice to have a small moment of success, of superiority

[cygan]

matchday #12 goes to Unknown01 – congratulations!
with 14 points, he secures his next yellow cap and climbs three places in the rankings
Harkorede is the new leader, who can also draw level with KTChampions on points but has more yellow caps victories to his name
it was a matchday with very late goals, which cost some players a few points, while others were able to pick up some important points as a result – like in the werder and hoffenheim games...

[Harkorede]

Harkorede is the new leader, who can also draw level with KTChampions on points but has more yellow caps victories to his name
it was a matchday with very late goals, which cost some players a few points, while others were able to pick up some important points as a result – like in the werder and hoffenheim games...

Oh, wow! Definitely not a bad one, I had no idea whatsoever how I was doing in the rankings and was paying zero to it too, I was just pretty sure to keep making my best predictions without any sentiments and I wasn't being cautious either, I sincerely hope that figuring out that I'm currently leading the pack doesn't make me try to play every pick safe and second guessing myself, as I'd like to keep it going and give everyone a run for their money in this pool.

[KTChampions]

matchday #12 goes to Unknown01 – congratulations!
with 14 points, he secures his next yellow cap and climbs three places in the rankings
Harkorede is the new leader, who can also draw level with KTChampions on points but has more yellow caps victories to his name
it was a matchday with very late goals, which cost some players a few points, while others were able to pick up some important points as a result – like in the werder and hoffenheim games...

These damn 1-1 draws are a pain in my ass, I've already written about it. When I choose the result 1-1, the game ends 2-1 and everyone gets 4 points, when I choose 2-1, the result 1-1 happens much more often 
In any case, the results are very close and in fact the distribution of places from 6th to 1st depends on literally one game. If this situation continues until the last round, then free adrenaline is guaranteed for everyone 

[buwaytress]

matchday #11 goes to Kanapka!
with an impressive 22 points, he secures the yellow cap and a free bet on sportsbet.io
this strong performance (scoring at least 2 points in 8 out of 9 games) boosts him up 7 places in the rankings!

That is really impressive Kanapka, well bloody done. I'm loosening my grip on top spots, and it's a tight pool but I can only hope for one or two decent rounds to get back up there.

Like KTChampions said, every round promises a close contest, so at least this pool can deliver on competitiveness. At least for December, before the break.

[cygan]

in less than 10.5 hours the 13th matchday in the bundesliga starts with the game mainz 05 vs. mönchengladbach and the battle for the top ranks begins again
to make sure that all pool participants submit their picks in time, here is a reminder for all those who are missing out:

Code: KTChampions Kanapka buwaytress Etiquette.exe el che Saint-loup slackovic B1g4udge Unknown01 Renato297 morvillz7z Trofo cryptofrka

[buwaytress]

Thanks for the reminder. Sent my Friday picks, will do the rest of them a bit later, always better to be at computer so I don't get what happened to me 2 GWs ago... Bottom table team but strong at home, hard to back Mainz and Gladbach cup exit will be pushing them to make things right methinks.

[darxiaomi]

I know we only played a few rounds of this competition and season of the Bundesliga, but im the only one who thinks we are much more compact this time in the leaderboard? I mean im in the 12º position and im ""only""  15 points far from the actual leader.

This doesnt mean i still have a good chance, but at least a chance is there.

[KTChampions]

I know we only played a few rounds of this competition and season of the Bundesliga, but im the only one who thinks we are much more compact this time in the leaderboard? I mean im in the 12º position and im ""only""  15 points far from the actual leader.

This doesnt mean i still have a good chance, but at least a chance is there.

From season to season, the core of participants is approximately the same, and in the end, most come to a reliable bet of 2-1 on the favorite. Not only because it is mathematically justified, but also so that you don’t have to rack your brains when you need to make predictions for several pools. Therefore, the tournament table is quite tight, but I still think it could be worse 
But there are advantages in this - you always know which pick to play against if you want to beat the crowd/take a risk.

[mv1986]

I know we only played a few rounds of this competition and season of the Bundesliga, but im the only one who thinks we are much more compact this time in the leaderboard? I mean im in the 12º position and im ""only""  15 points far from the actual leader.

This doesnt mean i still have a good chance, but at least a chance is there.

From season to season, the core of participants is approximately the same, and in the end, most come to a reliable bet of 2-1 on the favorite. Not only because it is mathematically justified, but also so that you don’t have to rack your brains when you need to make predictions for several pools. Therefore, the tournament table is quite tight, but I still think it could be worse 
But there are advantages in this - you always know which pick to play against if you want to beat the crowd/take a risk.

That's what I thought too, but I did a quick google search and this is what I found:



This table is said to aggregate results across all major leagues, but I have no idea how reliable this source is. However, if this table is true, it's actually the 1-1 draw that is the most common result. Now the numbers of games gathered are huge. The variance on any given match day can therefore be quite big.

But as you said, if you identify a favorite, most people go with a 2-1 result. What does pay off though is when you get draws correctly. That's when it is quite likely you are one of very few who take home the full 4 points while everybody else goes empty.

In relative terms it feels like the 0-0 draw happens quite often. Mathematically it is about every 14th game, which I think makes sense again.

[KTChampions]

That's what I thought too, but I did a quick google search and this is what I found:



This table is said to aggregate results across all major leagues, but I have no idea how reliable this source is. However, if this table is true, it's actually the 1-1 draw that is the most common result. Now the numbers of games gathered are huge. The variance on any given match day can therefore be quite big.

But as you said, if you identify a favorite, most people go with a 2-1 result. What does pay off though is when you get draws correctly. That's when it is quite likely you are one of very few who take home the full 4 points while everybody else goes empty.

In relative terms it feels like the 0-0 draw happens quite often. Mathematically it is about every 14th game, which I think makes sense again.

Interesting statistics, but I would conclude that draws don't pay off at all.
0-0 = 7.1%
1-1 = 10.1%
2-2 = 4.5%

21.7% in total, lets say 25% with exotic results like 3-3 or 4-4. The advantage is that you always get at least 3 points according to the latest regulations. Can a mathematical expectation of 25% * 3 beat picks on favorites which will win with at least 50% probability, even with a smaller minimum (2 points)? I think not.
So, choosing the favorite is probably more profitable, even considering that everyone else is doing it. But 25% is not a bad choice for betting against all other participants as you noted.

[mv1986]

That's what I thought too, but I did a quick google search and this is what I found:



This table is said to aggregate results across all major leagues, but I have no idea how reliable this source is. However, if this table is true, it's actually the 1-1 draw that is the most common result. Now the numbers of games gathered are huge. The variance on any given match day can therefore be quite big.

But as you said, if you identify a favorite, most people go with a 2-1 result. What does pay off though is when you get draws correctly. That's when it is quite likely you are one of very few who take home the full 4 points while everybody else goes empty.

In relative terms it feels like the 0-0 draw happens quite often. Mathematically it is about every 14th game, which I think makes sense again.

Interesting statistics, but I would conclude that draws don't pay off at all.
0-0 = 7.1%
1-1 = 10.1%
2-2 = 4.5%

21.7% in total, lets say 25% with exotic results like 3-3 or 4-4. The advantage is that you always get at least 3 points according to the latest regulations. Can a mathematical expectation of 25% * 3 beat picks on favorites which will win with at least 50% probability, even with a smaller minimum (2 points)? I think not.
So, choosing the favorite is probably more profitable, even considering that everyone else is doing it. But 25% is not a bad choice for betting against all other participants as you noted.

Well yes choosing the favorite is definitely giving you higher chances, but whether there is a favorite or not can sometimes be subjective. That is where the whole problem starts for everyone Sure if it Bayern at home against Heidenheim, no discussion needed. But what these statistics suggest is that there is less often a favorite than one would think.

I thought 2-1 is probably the most frequent result, but interestingly it is not. From the last Bundesliga match day, there were several difficult games.

Mainz - Gladbach, since Gladbach had momentum, going with Gladbach winning did at least make some sense.
 
Augsburg - Leverkusen, no.

Heidenheim - Freiburg, no.

Wolfsburg - Union Berlin, not really, kind of a coin flip and picking a draw made sense in my opinion.

So the real problem is to choose a favorite when there actually is a favorite, but it is not always that obvious. It is the same in other leagues, for example Aston Villa - Arsenal.

In general, however, I agree with you that going against the favorite wouldn't make sense in the long run (assuming you know who the favorite really is). Variance in sports is much higher than people think, I believe.

[Unknown01]

Never give up! After a few strong weeks, I am now only half as many points behind the top 3 as I was a few weeks ago. To be more precise, it is now about 15 points, and I think anything is still possible until the end of the season!

This week the teams also surprised in the Bundesliga us a little and my risky predictions paid off.

[cygan]

the 13th matchday is now over and this time there are two winners!
Unknown01 and Renato297 each scored 15 points and can look forward to receiving the next yellow cap! congratulation guys!
Kanapka is now the new leader, tied with Harkorede and KTChampions

[KTChampions]

the 13th matchday is now over and this time there are two winners!
Unknown01 and Renato297 each scored 15 points and can look forward to receiving the next yellow cap! congratulation guys!
Kanapka is now the new leader, tied with Harkorede and KTChampions

A good round for me, considering the very first game put me at -3 against all my main competitors. Mainz just doesn't want to win another game. The distance to the saving 16th place continues to increase and is already 5 points. Last year's 6th place, this year's relegation. A typical Bundesliga pattern 
Last season, Bayern scored 99 goals in the entire season (only Bundesliga), and this season, in 13 games, they have already scored 49 

[Renato297]

This was the first time I scored high in a round in this pool, even though I shared it with someone else. The free bets have ended, right? I saw that announcement in another pool, so I guess they sadly ended in this one too.
But oh well, that yellow cap is a motivation to keep trying to get closer to the guys at the top.

[cygan]

This was the first time I scored high in a round in this pool, even though I shared it with someone else. The free bets have ended, right?
✂️

unfortunately, that's true, and with sportsbet.io being gone of the forum, it was only a matter of time before it happened...
now we can continue to enjoy ourselves without the free bets, and the battle for the top spots continues also

[buwaytress]

Good look at the stats and discussion from mv1986 and KTChampions. Again, we probably need to dig deeper into the other leagues. 1-1 certainly seems to be far more common in EFL Championship, where they also have a higher volume of games. The top leagues in all the big Europe competitions have less uniformity in team strength, and more consistency (hence why there is a big four or big two in the top divisions, and then nothing below that).

That suggests that the 1-1 and draws are largely derived from secondary, even tertiary leagues. Possibly the best pick for a more balanced league like... the Championship, or maybe even Europa League?

The other point to note is from 0-0 to 3-3, with a favourite, or even in balanced games there are:
4 draw possibilities
6 win possibilities

With 2-1 being the one with the best average points for closeness, as it is close to all the win possibilities in a league where there are often clear favourites. At least, using the Superbru points system, and to a large extent, the kicktipp system. In fact, 3-3 isn't even in that list you put...

Using Flashscore's tracking, and free Google AI, for the past 3 seasons, but using smaller datasets of about 2/3 of the season each, as data too large to copy whole season apparently:

### 📊 Frequency of Final Scores (Bundesliga 2024/25)

| Final Score | Occurrences |
|-------------|-------------|
| 2–1         | 28          |
| 1–1         | 24          |
| 2–0         | 22          |
| 3–1         | 20          |
| 0–0         | 18          |
| 3–2         | 16          |
| 4–2         | 12          |
| 2–2         | 12          |
| 1–0         | 11          |
| 4–0         | 9           |
| 3–0         | 9           |
| 5–1         | 6           |
| 4–1         | 6           |
| 5–2         | 4           |
| 6–0         | 3           |
| Other rare scores (e.g., 6–1, 7–0, 5–3) | 1–2 each |

### 📊 Frequency of Final Scores (Bundesliga 2023/24)

| Final Score | Occurrences |
|-------------|-------------|
| 2–1         | 27          |
| 1–1         | 25          |
| 2–0         | 23          |
| 3–1         | 21          |
| 0–0         | 17          |
| 3–2         | 15          |
| 2–2         | 13          |
| 1–0         | 12          |
| 4–2         | 10          |
| 3–0         | 9           |
| 4–0         | 8           |
| 4–1         | 7           |
| 5–1         | 5           |
| 5–2         | 3           |
| 6–0         | 2           |
| Other rare scores (e.g., 6–1, 7–0, 5–3) | 1 each |

### 📊 Frequency of Final Scores (Bundesliga 2022/23)

| Final Score | Occurrences |
|-------------|-------------|
| 2–1         | 26          |
| 1–1         | 24          |
| 2–0         | 22          |
| 3–1         | 20          |
| 0–0         | 16          |
| 3–2         | 15          |
| 2–2         | 13          |
| 1–0         | 11          |
| 4–2         | 10          |
| 3–0         | 9           |
| 4–0         | 8           |
| 4–1         | 7           |
| 5–1         | 5           |
| 5–2         | 3           |
| 6–0         | 2           |
| Other rare scores (e.g., 6–1, 7–0, 5–3) | 1 each |

===

If anyone has a paid AI, you should try crunch all 304 matches per season for past 10 seasons!

[cygan]

in less than 9 hours the 14th matchday in the bundesliga starts with the game union berlin vs. leipzig and the battle for the top ranks begins again
to make sure that all pool participants submit their picks in time, here is a reminder for all those who are missing out:

Code: Kanapka KTChampions Saint-loup Unknown01 Etiquette.exe el che Renato297 morvillz7z Trofo mv1986 cryptofrka