The Fallacy Of The Maturity Of Chances

[lovesmayfamilis]

I completely agree with you most sport followers especially football fans think that history is always repeating itself especially this season where smaller teams where winning the big and favorite teams sport is a game of how better prepared an athlete is or a team is for the team sports so those thinking and using passed record to compare and predicting the future events are doing mistakes because it doesn't always come true if the present form of the team is bad it's not going to do any magic

Here you rely on the human factor. A football team that has bad results sooner or later flies out of the championship to the lower league, but to prevent this from happening, the management tries one way or another not only to train in some other ways, improving the results but also to change players and sometimes coaches. But in the case of the OP example, I think superstition works. Signs when you believe that under a certain scenario, something can change, for me, it is just a coincidence. But when changing the game in football and using other tactics, you are unlikely to see random results.

[Peanutswar]

Coin flip game is a probability game depends on the number of the flips occurs with the game setted and its a half percent base to win the game but again there's a chance to lose even though its a 50 percent imagine you face a three or five consecutive tails on the game, so if you are a well player you know the risk why not taking this risk to play with others seek for the fun but others seeing other opportunity than this such as sports base game and card games which has a higher chance to win.

[Wapfika]

The Fallacy of the maturity of chances is a common mistake among gamblers.

Some gamblers always think past events affects future outcomes.
For example, if a coin is lands heads up several times, some people
Think it's more likely to land tails up next.

But each coin flip is independent and the probability of heads or tails is always 50/50

I agree on this common mistake but I don’t blame them since you have nothing to lose by following pattern based on previous result.

Playing coin flip, dice game and other game of chance game doesn’t have any reference on each rather than just betting blindly on hat side to win.

So using previous results makes the game more exciting and organized since your following a pattern which is much better than bet randomly.

[Dunamisx]

The Fallacy of the maturity of chances is a common mistake among gamblers.

Some gamblers always think past events affects future outcomes.
For example, if a coin is lands heads up several times, some people
Think it's more likely to land tails up next.

But each coin flip is independent and the probability of heads or tails is always 50/50

This is exactly how we should also treat gambling, a 50x50 chance of winning or losing, if we are playing a bet, irrespective of the game, it can come as a win or lose attempt and we should be able to take it as it is, gambling at the end is for fun and nothing should stops us, so if you're on this same approach , then your expectations with gambling are going to be aligned with the normal norms in gambling.

[stompix]

This depends on if you're playing on casino games or sports. You shouldn't rely on past events on casino games, but sport is a real life event and odds are calculated based on different factors including head-to-head, home advantage and other recurring factors, like important stats. I check all of these before deciding on the team I want to bet on, if a team has not conceded a goal at home for several matches, I'll be inclined to bet on them to not concede a goal again.

Casino games are mostly random

Exactly, people need to understand the difference in sports and casinos!

You toss a coin, it lands 4 times on tails, it means nothing!
You have a team like Napoli beating Inter, Juventus, Roma and Atalanta, of course, you're not going to bet they will lose against Monza (rip), it's the complete opposite!
The same is also true for the opposite, if you have a team like has been beaten by Monza, Empoli and Venezia no way you're going on bet on them when they are facing Inter next!

Sport betting has nothing to do with this, plus there are odds in place that make this thing even more different.
A team that has had 5 consecutive defeats will never start favorite at 2.0 odds, in any championship, unless they played all those games against the top 5 teams and they're facing the last one in the standings!

 

[dimonstration]

The Fallacy of the maturity of chances is a common mistake among gamblers.

Some gamblers always think past events affects future outcomes.
For example, if a coin is lands heads up several times, some people
Think it's more likely to land tails up next.

But each coin flip is independent and the probability of heads or tails is always 50/50

This is exactly how we should also treat gambling, a 50x50 chance of winning or losing, if we are playing a bet, irrespective of the game, it can come as a win or lose attempt and we should be able to take it as it is, gambling at the end is for fun and nothing should stops us, so if you're on this same approach , then your expectations with gambling are going to be aligned with the normal norms in gambling.

It’s never a 50-50 chance due to house edge. It’s always <50% our winning chance if we are playing casino games no matter what game and strategy we do.

But I do get the point here that there’s only 2 outcome on our bet and in random basis so it useless at all to use betting pattern on our betting strategy in able to win.

I don’t play this kind of game anymore since I’m weak on complete random game. I always preferred blackjack that give me a decision making that affects my winning percentage.

[Woodie]

With casino games,  its easy to refute that past events dont affects future outcomes and it's kind of true because of other factors like RTP etcetera,  but when it comes to Sports gambling,  history is everything and these head to head information will always guide players and 80% of the time it does help!

Btw that coin flip example also is a perfect example of probability at work and games that give you a 50% chance hence the odds being 1.8 or something,  same thing going for red or black on roulette.

[yahoo62278]

The Fallacy of the maturity of chances is a common mistake among gamblers.

Some gamblers always think past events affects future outcomes.
For example, if a coin is lands heads up several times, some people
Think it's more likely to land tails up next.

But each coin flip is independent and the probability of heads or tails is always 50/50

Any rational person should already know this, other wise people would make a killing using a martingale system when betting. If it was predictable there would basically not be any gamblers as there would be noone taking bets on anything.

[Slow death]

Of course, past events cannot serve as a 100% guarantee that they will be repeated in the present and future, but in sports betting it is very important to have knowledge about past events, because although football teams constantly change players and coaches, they also manage to keep the same squad as in the past, so when analyzing the h2h between teams, we look at the squad they had and the result they had compared to the squad they currently have and the result they have had, this can give an idea of ​​which team to bet on and get the bet right.

[nara1892]

The Fallacy of the maturity of chances is a common mistake among gamblers.

Some gamblers always think past events affects future outcomes.
For example, if a coin is lands heads up several times, some people
Think it's more likely to land tails up next.

But each coin flip is independent and the probability of heads or tails is always 50/50

Basically, everything that runs based on probability can never be linked to the past, when previously you managed to win in a slot game with method A, it does not mean that the next time you will win again even though you play the same type of game and method, also in the type of sports betting, statistics cannot always be fully relied on and it has been proven that not a few stronger teams have lost to weak teams or even those that were almost relegated.

Moreover, if for example the previous results could be used as a benchmark for the next results, then there must have been many casinos or gambling sites that went bankrupt and in fact that did not happen, the point is whatever type of gambling it is, luck is still in control.

[danherbias07]

The same when you play slots. If a losing streak happens, a gambler would probably think that a winning chance is coming up next. Truly, it is a mistake to behave that a winning chance is next because the truth is we will never know what the outcome will be. Expecting too much could lead to frustrations, and it's best if we can just play the game without even thinking of a big win.
I don't know, but I happen to win more when I just play the game. I guess enjoying it makes me think clearly, or it could really just be a coincidence.

[robelneo]

The Fallacy of the maturity of chances is a common mistake among gamblers.

Some gamblers always think past events affects future outcomes.
For example, if a coin is lands heads up several times, some people
Think it's more likely to land tails up next.

But each coin flip is independent and the probability of heads or tails is always 50/50

You are in a better position to win if you treat it 50/50 than assuming what the next probability is. This is where we lose. The more we bet on this idea, the more we are using a martingale strategy, and we all know that a martingale method is a losing approach.
We take the safe side by assuming, because we believe in the probability, and this probability will make us lose more; this is a very common mistake for newbies.

[Z390]

The Fallacy of the maturity of chances is a common mistake among gamblers.

Some gamblers always think past events affects future outcomes.
For example, if a coin is lands heads up several times, some people
Think it's more likely to land tails up next.

But each coin flip is independent and the probability of heads or tails is always 50/50

This is why gamblers don't have stomach for constant losses, that's why they lose their good side and decide to take it out on the casino, when a gambler believes too much in gambling they are set for destruction in the near future.
Past effect can make you feel relax with gambling, for example you win this week and expect to win next week again, you will probably use more money that you are suppose to use on gambling.
Don't even bother finding a way around gambling, just maintain your risk tolerance and have some great time as a responsible gambler, you will win when you don't expect to win and lose most of the time.

[rachael9385]

This depends on if you're playing on casino games or sports. You shouldn't rely on past events on casino games, but sport is a real life event and odds are calculated based on different factors including head-to-head, home advantage and other recurring factors, like important stats. I check all of these before deciding on the team I want to bet on, if a team has not conceded a goal at home for several matches, I'll be inclined to bet on them to not concede a goal again.

Casino games are mostly random

You are right about that, casino games are random but even In sports betting the past doesn't always determine the outcome of the future. Even though there are cases where you can actually predict some games based on their historical data this doesn't mean that every game is going to be easy to predict in the same way. Some bettors get too comfortable with this and they end up losing huge amounts of money

[Pandu Geddon]

Some gamblers always think past events affects future outcomes.

What happens is luck, not the maturity of Chances.
Gamblers only try to describe the situation of some past results to make speculations on the next bet. It is just speculation, related to how gamblers arrange their patterns, no one knows. The results are still unpredictable.
Different situation for those who bet on sports. I'm sure most bettors also analyze past results to determine bets. But for the game you gave an example, gamblers may only play with their feelings and instincts.

[YOSHIE]

But each coin flip is independent and the probability of heads or tails is always 50/50

Do you believe that gambling or basic games are always synonymous with luck.

Roullete is one of the similar games such as throwing coins, two x appears yellow, the next appears chocolate and appears again white, brown, chocolate whether such a game can be said 50/50, I don't think so, that's gambling.

Your gambling has a passive fortune where every game you play is greatly influenced by your personality in luck, there is no mistake when you bet, you do on your heart and mind, but luck has not been in favor of you, that's all.

[adultcrypto]

The Fallacy of the maturity of chances is a common mistake among gamblers.

Some gamblers always think past events affects future outcomes.
For example, if a coin is lands heads up several times, some people
Think it's more likely to land tails up next.

But each coin flip is independent and the probability of heads or tails is always 50/50

For casino games, your statement is right because each event are seemingly independent since we don't know or cannot hardly predict the algorithm running the casino but there could actually be cases where the result of the next even will depend on the previous few events or immediate event. For instance, it will be very difficult if not impossible to have two consecutive jackpots (max multiplier) in slot games. I have not seen it before and I have not heard anyone mention it before. On the contrary, in sports betting, previous results can give a clue of how the present event will happen.

[Kagaru]

The Fallacy of the maturity of chances is a common mistake among gamblers.

Some gamblers always think past events affects future outcomes.
For example, if a coin is lands heads up several times, some people
Think it's more likely to land tails up next.

But each coin flip is independent and the probability of heads or tails is always 50/50

Yeah that is one of the most common traps that people do themselves especially when they chase their losses. They begin to think that the next bet has a higher chance of winning simply because they already are losing but the odds do not run so. Spin or flip is a distinct event and it has equal probabilities each time. All of it is just luck, and previous outcomes do not amass any form of invisible momentum. Such type of thinking is what makes a significant number of individuals remain in a losing game without even noticing.

[Dunamisx]

Nothing like maturity in chance because a gambler can be playing for year or over a long time never to have the opportunity of winning something big, except for a minor ones, when  we talk about chance, then there's lot to discuss about it and we can as well think of the probability of winning or losing at the same time, so this is not about the maturity, but the luck we may have upon playing any game.

[sotelorene]

The Fallacy of the maturity of chances is a common mistake among gamblers.

Some gamblers always think past events affects future outcomes.
For example, if a coin is lands heads up several times, some people
Think it's more likely to land tails up next.

But each coin flip is independent and the probability of heads or tails is always 50/50

I don't know about Casinos and some others game but I believe in sport betting it do happen that past events most times can be use to determine future outcome of a particular game. History, do repeat itself most times in sports bet, I have a friend who predict or forecast draw and he always used pass records to analyze this games and sometimes they played exactly and sometimes they  won't though it is not easy to predict game correct all the time. In conclusion yes sometimes past events can be used to determine future outcome of a particular game in sports betting.