While common people are investing into stock market, smart people are getting into cryptos. And really smart people are diversifying into commodities and precious metals. That's how smart people can stay ahead even during a recession because they add assets that protects their capital.
But 155 billion USD in 6 months, is a big number. This kind of optimism may be fueled by global broking companies that are advising their retail clients to invest heavily. A lot of US people think that Trump tariff is going to serve them great return. So there may be multiple triggers to create such optimism.
Every cycle, the “smart money” rotates somewhere else first. Crypto last time, now maybe metals or even cash. The people who spread out their bets (stocks, bitcoin, gold, real assets) tend to sleep best, no matter what happens
And you nailed something important about the optimism: it is not just natural confidence, but maybe a bit manufactured. Big brokers want trading volume, and the more people pile in, the higher things go… until someone calls “last one out, turn off the lights”. There is also this weird belief that politics or a single policy will make everyone rich, like the tariffs will magically protect the people, even when the numbers say the risks are real
People are getting more savvy, inflation is running wild, currencies are being devalued consistently. People are trying to set themselves up financially because life is getting more & more expensive. This stat does not surprise me, I think more & more money will pour into stocks as people try to improve their lives.
The real story behind the surge is just survival mode. People know the game is changing: prices up, currency down, so everyone is hunting for something that will not lose value overnight. Even if stocks can be risky, at least they feel like a way to keep up. If we all pile into stocks just to keep pace with inflation, are we actually getting ahead, or just running faster on the same treadmill? What happens if markets stumble and there is nowhere else to run?
Well Nasdaq started the year at 19280, at 20410, so not really "that much" of an increase, it was already at 20k, but had a huge crash (thanks to trump and tariff war stuff in between) to 15k and now it's 20k. So if you think 19k to 20k is big, look at how we moved from 20k to 15k to 20k in like a month or two, market is volatile, so this small increase is nothing. SP500 was also about 5900 and became 6200, once again very small increase.
Market is healthy in the sense that if Trump doesn't touch it and doesn't do anything bad, then we are not going to end up with any trouble at all. But we just need to make sure that we are seeing how it could move differently. If we can do it, and can stop Trump from making stupid moves, then yeah we can see it grow more.
Those moves are not huge when you zoom out, especially after seeing wild swings down to 15k and back in just weeks. It really does feel like “normal” does not exist anymore. Every few months we’re either celebrating or bracing for another headline shock. The market’s health now depends more on what one person tweets or decides, than on any classic business stuff. Tariffs or even just the threat of new policy can send everything spinning, and then a week later, people are back to buying as if nothing happened
