Holy Cow Shit! I am now too scared to trade Bitcoin, short or long.

[MatTheCat]

Talk about a bull trap bear trap bull trap.

Am in Madrid so was not watching market when the tumble came otherwise I would have got the fuck out my long position a lot sooner. Yesterday, I was sitting on a leveraged short position, which would have been a blisteringly good trade....but I got whipsawed about a bit too much my TA 101 A 'skills' told me that market was looking much more likely to break up for a counter trend rally than break down, so I left my short and went unleveraged long. I get off the plane and I find that I am on the end of a 15% haircut. Since I believe that Bitcoin is headed to $200 range, I dumped my coins right away as I refuse to take the risk of hanging back to limit my losses in this nasty shark market. Since then I could have gotten out my long at a whole $12 more than what I sold it, with volume now in sub $450 range that spells out just one thing. Much more downside yet to come.

Let's face it, Bitcoin is looking fucking ugly right now and Bitcoin right now, right at this point in time, is probably the most manipulated market on the face of the planet. I sat yesterday and watched the buying and selling like a hawk and I will tell you, I am quite convinced that the lionshare of the buy/sell pressure during that 470-490 consolidation period is coming from the same source. Was it all just a big fkn short squeeze job? The 510 top Bitfinex inspired top was certainly some shorters foolish enough to leave stop loss orders on the blatantly corrupt Bitfinex, getting robbed fkn blind.

Although I am a believer in $200 range Bitcoins, I am at the point where I daren't take a short position. The market is so hard for a trader to predict, because there are powerful hands at play that have the ability to squeeze every last drop of blood out of this market, whether you are bull or bear. Is this Chinese Bitcoin bandits? Is this Wall St getting in?  They are fattening the chicken for its plucking, setting up the market for a fucking.

Does anyone feel the same way I do that Bitcoin is getting too hot to handle no matter what side of the trade you favour? Or am I just a twitchy reactionary cunt who repeatedly deprives himself of making some excellent trades due to jumping around like a bitch to the least little bit of TA 101 or price action that suggests I might be on the wrong side of the trade all along?

Bitcoin right now is looking ugly as fuck. No way is $380 gonna hold over the course of time.... naturally, should too many shorters join the market and we can expect a short squeezing rally right back up to the long term trend line, bringing all the suckers back into long positions that will invariably blow up in their faces. But I don't care, I am out until Bitcoin has taken the kicking that is coming its way and is truly lying in the gutter beaten, battered and dejected. No matter what happens to get bull hopes up, The big take down is still to come. Anyone who genuinely thinks that this is the bottom is someone I can't reason with.

Bitcoin is a market for transferring value out of many pockets into a few and always was. Might be fun when it is expanding and you are getting a slice of the action. Not so great when it is going the other way.

[podyx]

If bitcoin is manipulated in any way, it is manipulated to be cheaper

I hope to see $300 because I got fresh fiat coming in but I do believe this is the bottom

I've seen permabulls gone bears. sub $450 coins is not a joke

[fonzie]

This is exactly my feeling. Right now Bitcoin is only a ping pong game where short and long traders will get squeezed if they enter the market with a position now. Mid-term we are heading to 200$ , probably even lower for quite some time.

[serenitys]

Do you have this attitude when you break up with a girl, too?

Are cops usually involved?

It's exciting times...don't sweat it.

[MatTheCat]

This is exactly my feeling. Right now Bitcoin is only a ping pong game where short and long traders will get squeezed if they enter the market with a position now. Mid-term we are heading to 200$ , probably even lower for quite some time.

Agreed. Very few, but very powerful hands wringing all the blood they can get out of the market. Well, they have scared me off, they aint getting any more of my beans. If I had the nerve and the mental stability to hold to my market outlook, then I would have made a fkn killing. But the facts is that I don't. Even if I know to the pit of my gut what way the prevailing weather system is going, first little sign of a gust from opposite direction and I am out, chopping n changing my position, raping my profits and on this occasion, taking a fkn kicking. Yesterday, I was leveraged short at $486. This morning I had a little look at 'bullish' ascending triangle, 'managed to break even' on my short, and got in long at $480....a good trade, for 60 minutes or something, a fkn awful trade after 240 minutes. I am inclined to believe that actual non whale volume is so light, that whales can and are imbuing the market with their own brand of synthetic market psychology, which is of course designed to deceive us with deceptive signals and deprive traders of their capital.

I might be pretty damn good at sitting on an armchair and knowing which way the wind is blowing, but put me in the heat of the action with anything significant at stake, and I am complete fannyflapper. Same could probs be said for many Bitcoin traders and novice traders in general. Joe Blow needs to keep his fiat firmly in his pockets as far as Bitcoin is concerned right now. Fuck catching the bottom. Let the sharks who are manipulating this market decide where the bottom is (when the max amount of blood as been squeezed out of the market as possible) and come back in when/if the gravy train starts moving once again.

[Nicholas-Carraway]

Hey MatTheCat,

You are the WB Yeats of BTC, you should keep posting here like your blog!

Nick

[Ibian]

And just think, if you had held onto your single digit coins you could now have enough coke to last a lifetime. No wonder you seem high strung all the time.

[Dalmar]

The lower the market cap gets, the easier it is to manipulate bitcoin. Expect the fuckery to get even worse.

[psybits]

No one knows for sure what's going to happen - but I'm thoroughly enjoying your colorful analysis

[MatTheCat]

And just think, if you had held onto your single digit coins you could now have enough coke to last a lifetime. No wonder you seem high strung all the time.

never had an investment mindset back when i was spending literally hundreds of single digit btc on silk road....but if i did, i would have only gone and sold them all when they hit double figures anyhow.

u see....i am a bit of a fkn pussy when it comes down to it otherwise i would have made a killing on the bear market that i have been calling all the way down and am still calling. No doubt the same mentality would hinder me on the way up......although much easier to take positive trade than negative.

[seleme]

Mat, get ready to rrrrrrrrumble 

[seleme]

i am a bit of a fkn pussy when it comes down to it

First par of the cure is to recognize the problem

Mat, Bitcoin gives so many options to recover it's so pussy to be the pussy trading it

Yesterday I went to bed with 482 big long position (after making few nice fast trades) hoping to sell it in 490-510 range. I got my alarm for 500 and first time in weeks haven't got out of the bed to take a piss, and woke up hour after 495 top and start of the dump. Lost 1300$ potential profit and at least that much in taking a loss on a trade when I saw it's dumping time.

Few hours later made 800-900$ on BTC-e in 30 minutes. There's just no reason to be mad more than 15 minutes with Bitcoin, the opportunity to recover will come rather sooner than later.

[podyx]

Behold the manipulator! For he will take all your money

[HeliKopterBen]

There are times where it pays to do nothing.  Now is one of those times. 

[Bit_Happy]

.... too scared to trade Bitcoin
Don't be afraid.
We have some yummy BTC for you . 

• Fear will lead to regrets.

[bassclef]

The thread title shows why you shouldn't be trading at all.

[lightfoot]

I'm more concerned with the damn difficulty. What the hell is going on with all the new miners?

C

[uhoh]

The appearance of threads like these means the bottom is in sight...

[Bit_Happy]

The appearance of threads like these means the bottom is in sight...

Getting closer every day 
At the bottom the vast majority of traders will be convinced it is going even lower.

[uhoh]

The appearance of threads like these means the bottom is in sight...

Getting closer every day 
At the bottom the vast majority of traders will be convinced it is going even lower.

Today has been a crazy ride