Ron~Popeil
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June 11, 2014, 08:34:20 AM |
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People said I was nuts last year when I told them DJIA would hit 18K this year. It's really looking that way. I think 20K is the final tipping point.
In Gold or Bitcoin the Dow has been going down since 2000 Wait until the fed starts raising interest rates. It is going to get ugly. This is the problem with QE, it is creating artificial asset price increases. When QE is finished and short term rates start to increase asset prices will start to decrease at a frightening pace. That definitely does happen, the housing crisis was a good example of that bad loans given out to people with bad credit combined with a economic circumstance led to that crisis. Another area worth looking at is the student loans market and if their is a collapse coming in that area. The student loan crisis will probably not cause a massive quick economic crash. A student loan crisis will cause loan term economic damage. The financial crisis was as bad as it was because people did not know how bad off the banks were so they would take out their deposits and other banks would not lend to them. The question was how much were the investments that banks owned (mortgage backed securities) are worth. Student loans are mostly owned by the federal government. They can also be collected on in many more ways then mortgages can be. As a result borrowers (of student loans) will face lifetimes of economic hardship and a lower rate of consumption causing lower economic growth. It isn't so much the actual debt, but the psychological impact of yet another crisis. There are a lot of banks that will get stiffed when the government can't back up the guarantees. This one like most of the other "crises" was government manufactured.
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Unluckyduck
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June 11, 2014, 10:01:20 AM |
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If another stock market crash occurs and it is severe enough I doubt most people would be able to even afford a computer because it would be the depression v2.0
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percocet
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June 11, 2014, 11:07:15 AM |
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I think a stock market crash would cause the price of Bitcoin to plummet, at first, as would gold and silver. The panic would cause people to start to liquidate everything in sight.
After the dust settles, Bitcoin and precious metals would rise drastically as people would realize that it is better to have assets outside of the control of traditional finance.
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Erdogan
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June 11, 2014, 11:17:32 AM |
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We need a reversed debt clock, one which counts the days to the global reset downwards.
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STT
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June 12, 2014, 02:27:48 AM |
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Nobody knows that date, its more a question of odds. What are the odds of china buying 100% of usa debt, seems low but its possible and so this can go on forever I think a stock market crash would cause the price of Bitcoin to plummet, at first, as would gold and silver. The panic would cause people to start to liquidate everything in sight. When people sell stock, they are buying currency. A sale must include a purchase also. So somebody is asking could bitcoin be that currency. I own some BTC stock, I exchanged BTC to buy that share. When BTC price goes up it tends to put pressure on that stock price as people are more willing to sell and take profit. So its already true when this stock crashes, its owners are changing to bitcoin. Thats not fiat though. More relevant is if dollar crashes in value, would people buy bitcoin and they probably would. If only to transport it abroad, some would use it. Most stocks give out their dividends in dollars, so by selling they are also giving up those future dollars. If dollar is going down, then changing to btc would make some sense. But theres many currencies so its very confusing who is best but its usually the most productive nation with a trade surplus. As an enterprise, btc has less transaction fees then it gives out in block rewards. So I will guess and call this a virtual nation with a trade deficit still, the btc nation needs to do more work and capture more fees to say its self confirming not reliant on outside influence?
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lihuajkl
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June 12, 2014, 08:31:23 AM |
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wouldn't. Bitcoin is not recognized currency yet, still new technology and the price fluctuates a lot. People is not confident with it yet. people would pour there cash into more traditional safe assets, such as bond, gold, saving, definitely bitcoin.
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Ron~Popeil
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June 12, 2014, 08:37:11 AM |
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wouldn't. Bitcoin is not recognized currency yet, still new technology and the price fluctuates a lot. People is not confident with it yet. people would pour there cash into more traditional safe assets, such as bond, gold, saving, definitely bitcoin.
Some would others not so much. It depends on how savvy each investor is.
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tooil
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June 12, 2014, 09:21:49 AM |
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Investors would have been burn so badly they will be not likely to trust someone else with their money.
Hard asset and cash on hand would be more likely asset investors want to hang onto.
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ajareselde
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Satoshi is rolling in his grave. #bitcoin
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June 12, 2014, 10:06:23 AM |
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u cant realy know for sure, all it takes is a certaing percentage of them moveing to bitcoin, and others will follow. alot of you say that , if they get burned there , they wont try bitcoin and risk getting burned again, but i think you dont understand traders phylosophy. noone is willing to finish with a loss, you will rather loose everything trying , than to settle with a loss
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GigaBit
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June 12, 2014, 11:28:01 AM |
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I'm a Gold miner and dealer, I came to Bitcoin, why?
Go back to November 2013 - The SCARE of a US Government shutdown is what was the main catalyst in that price rise. There's actually some hedge funds that work on the same level as Gold and many IRA sellers now offer Bitcoin to their client's portfolio. The death of the USD will affect the USA first and foremost. The Chinese Yuan or Euro which will likely replace the USD as world reserve is also one of the currencies most traded in Bitcoin; this means that if the USD loses its status, Bitcoin will use the next world reserve to price itself and related assets.
I sell gold and Bitcoin is more wanted than Gold because it can't be seized and large amounts can easily be hidden. One ton of gold is about 14 inches cubed but weighs about 1 ton (2,000 LBS). Yeah, try dragging that around with you. Even if Gold is a physical store of value, it's not efficient if you keep it at home because Gold is VERY heavy, one of the heaviest elements on the table (19.2x heavier than water). Even that ton is a mere $40M... Not necessarily a whole lot of money today. You can hide that same amount of money in your shoe on a SD card with bitcoin if you want.
During the $1,000 times people were flocking to Bitcoin because it was more readily available than anything else. Gold requires shipping and in times like those, vaults run dry quickly. During that same time, Gold was losing in value, Gold went up and went back down as fast as the government re-opened its doors but Bitcoin remained high until the Gox incident.
I own little Gold anymore (I have a claim anyways) other than a few nice nuggets but everything else I have is in Bitcoin. I know it will be easier to sell Bitcoin than it will be to sell gold; Bitcoin doesn't require shipping and is traded within an hour. When the Dollar dies, it will mean the big break for bitcoin because it will be the only readily available form of value transfer. There is too many "virtual" gold that if everyone cashed out at once, there would be a crash in the price of Gold itself... because if your gold is in a vault that won't ship it to you or you need to wait months, it's not worth anything.
There's a saying in Gold mining: If your Gold isn't in your pocket, your Gold is worthless.
The world isn't going to end when the dollar dies. People will find the most accessible way to exchange money. Bitcoin will be that readily available source of exchange because Gold reserves will be dry within an hour, cash withdrawals will either come to a halt or be shutdown.
What's you're looking at is a much harder to digest Cyprus, mostly for Americans who live the USD because most of the world no longer uses the USD to trade.... Pretty much, it's gonna suck for you if you live breath and sleep the USD and are unprepared. I'd be willing to bet the rest of the world will barely break a sweat. Most of the ASD death fear out there is driven from large Gold dealers. America is heading for a re-birth --> #Kondratiev Wave
Save your coin!
PS: During the last US governmental Gold confiscation, it wasn't even forced, only a few schmucks willingly surrendered their gold. For those who want to make sure, coins minted prior to 1933 cannot be confiscated but tyrants don't follow the rules to begin with.
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GigaBit
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June 12, 2014, 01:31:19 PM |
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After a crash, it is too late, you've lost everything. Whist a crash is happening though, it's possible but still not easy. If you have no money in an exchange that sell bitcoin, the price point would be rather high. I still think people would trust bitcoin more than a dead fiat or a dead stock even if bitcoin was $10 a piece, 100 years ago, $10 could buy you everything in a grocery store
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ljudotina
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June 12, 2014, 02:52:06 PM |
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It prett ymuch depends on how many stock owners know and understand bitcoin. If they all would understand it, than yes i think they would flock to bitcoin. But i really doubdt.
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Gyfts
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June 12, 2014, 03:46:45 PM |
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not at all. They would invest in gold if anything rather than Bitcoin. It's a better alt.
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boumalo
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June 12, 2014, 05:36:37 PM |
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not at all. They would invest in gold if anything rather than Bitcoin. It's a better alt.
An asset going up doesn't mean an other one won't go up as well for similar reasons or other reasons Bitcoin will look pretty good when the USD tanks and the US&UE debt are totally unstainable
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ShakyhandsBTCer
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It's Money 2.0| It’s gold for nerds | It's Bitcoin
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June 13, 2014, 02:58:12 AM |
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Investors would have been burn so badly they will be not likely to trust someone else with their money.
Hard asset and cash on hand would be more likely asset investors want to hang onto.
Exactly! After a stock market crash, investors will be very risk adverse and would not want to risk what funds they have left in something that is more risky then stocks.
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Harley997
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June 16, 2014, 02:33:08 AM |
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not at all. They would invest in gold if anything rather than Bitcoin. It's a better alt.
Bitcoin would likely suffer in the event of a stock market crash. Maybe in 10 years when bitcoin is less risky will it's price rise when markets crash
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boumalo
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June 16, 2014, 11:33:13 AM |
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Investors would have been burn so badly they will be not likely to trust someone else with their money.
Hard asset and cash on hand would be more likely asset investors want to hang onto.
Exactly! After a stock market crash, investors will be very risk adverse and would not want to risk what funds they have left in something that is more risky then stocks. People who will buy bitcoins or hold to them bitcoins would be people already interested by bitcoins Gold is risky and volatile but in case of market crash or hyper inflation it is a safer asset for some so the price raises
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ShakyhandsBTCer
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It's Money 2.0| It’s gold for nerds | It's Bitcoin
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June 16, 2014, 05:53:08 PM |
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Investors would have been burn so badly they will be not likely to trust someone else with their money.
Hard asset and cash on hand would be more likely asset investors want to hang onto.
Exactly! After a stock market crash, investors will be very risk adverse and would not want to risk what funds they have left in something that is more risky then stocks. People who will buy bitcoins or hold to them bitcoins would be people already interested by bitcoins Gold is risky and volatile but in case of market crash or hyper inflation it is a safer asset for some so the price raises People who buy bitcoin sometimes see it's potential as a possible currency but may have little interest in it. Gold has long been a vehicle to hedge against inflation of any kind.
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counter
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June 18, 2014, 12:13:47 AM |
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I think it's more likely that the cash would pour into bitcoin then people pouring all their money into Bitcoin. If things get that bad the average person will not have Bitcoin on the mine at all. Most likely will be looking for the bear necessitates I suppose.
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Harley997
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June 18, 2014, 02:07:31 AM |
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I think it's more likely that the cash would pour into bitcoin then people pouring all their money into Bitcoin. If things get that bad the average person will not have Bitcoin on the mine at all. Most likely will be looking for the bear necessitates I suppose.
Can you please clarify your post? It sounds like that you said two opposite things in terms of what would happen in the event of a stock market crash.
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