Would people pour their cash into bitcoin given a stock market crash?

[pizza_lord]

Reason I ask is that some are speculating that we are 37 days away from such an event

http://www.blacklistednews.com/USA_Today:_Is_a_1987-type_Market_Crash_37_Days_Away%3F/34232/0/38/38/Y/M.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

[1715446798]

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[1715446798]

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[Joshuar]

Reason I ask is that some are speculating that we are 37 days away from such an event

http://www.blacklistednews.com/USA_Today:_Is_a_1987-type_Market_Crash_37_Days_Away%3F/34232/0/38/38/Y/M.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

I don't think they'd pour money into something else right after losing money from the stock market crashing..especially with Bitcoin's price fluctuating dramatically weekly...so No.

[jockular]

no

[twiifm]

No. More like bonds, gold or real estate

[amspir]

Probably not.   Bitcoin's future growth depends on companies that invest in innovation, and an economy where people are buying things beyond necessities.

[Zimbabwecoin]

When the stock market crashes people will have less money for bitcoin. Hopefully a bunch of people will invest in Bitcoin BECAUSE they fear that the stock market will crash.

As there are more bitcoin investment opportunities hopefully more mainstream investors will start to join in the fun.

[Bit_Happy]

When the stock market crashes people will have less money for bitcoin. Hopefully a bunch of people will invest in Bitcoin BECAUSE they fear that the stock market will crash.

As there are more bitcoin investment opportunities hopefully more mainstream investors will start to join in the fun.

My idea exactly.
People need to sell stocks near the high (like now), and buy BTC at/near the current low prices.

[BBmodBB]

~small caps explode when the big market crashes...hopefully my bitcoin pennystocks like $SOCR(Bitcoin collect) will begin to take flight? =) weeeeeee

[BitOnyx]

Such idea is probably even beyond speculation .

[romang]

sell stocks at the high and buy bitcoins at 50% discount

[anonuser777]

Everything gets sold off in a market crash. Even profitable investments. People liquidate their winners to pay for losses on other investments.

[Beliathon]

You should probably not look to USA today for your business news. Or any news, really.

[TrueAccess]

I guess 1987 get very popular now thanks to Wolf of wallstreet

[notbatman]

The two graphs are dissimilar; two bubbles are clearly visible in the 1982 line before it dipped back to pre-bubble levels. A crash would be sub-bear market levels.

However, Bitcoin actually does resemble the nasdaq composite only repeated many times over, each iteration 10 times bigger than the last. A terrace effect if you will.

The market hit 420 USD/BTC and the bears wondered off in search of food and sleep.

10k USD/BTC (~1/10th of a % of the global currency cap.) in August without the USD crashing is my bullish prediction.

Then, a horrendous "crash" "the end of Bitcoin" they'll say as it dips back to 4.5K USD/BTC.

Edit 10 April 2014:

Looks like I fail at predicting the market

BTC @ $350 and continuing fall. The bears are out in force today.

[jamesc760]

If you regularly predict something's going to crash , you are bound to be correct sometimes.

[beatljuice]

I think there would be some people that would buy bitcoin in a stock market crash assuming it's not crashing also. This would bring the price up, which might excite people bringing the price even higher.

This brings up the more relevant question - will bitcoin follow the stock market, or act as a commodity similar to gold and go in the opposite direction?

[aminorex]

My present strategy is to short IWM, and roll the gains into BTC.
It's working well so far, and I expect it work incredibly well in the future.

SF Fed report tells me that PEs go to 8 by 2024.
BTC ETPs go live in 2015.

[IIOII]

These crash predictions based on hypothetical chart analogy are plain BS. I'm not saying there won't be a crash - indeed stock valuations are high - but this has nothing to do with selectively picking a single time period (out of a ton of periods that would fit equally well) just to justify a crash prediction. Every uptrend will end someday.

So will people pour their cash into bitcoin if there is a stock market crash? I'd say it's possible, but most of them will do it after they already have lost most of their investment so it won't matter much.

[jamesc760]

If the stock market crashes, gold and US$ will be king. There will be massive rush to convert everything into gold and cash. Cryptocurrency won't survive.

[IIOII]

gold [ ] will be king

This is reasonable.

US$ will be king

This is reasonable - at least temporarily, because stocks are sold against cash. Longer term I'm not so sure because of inflationary monetary policy.

Cryptocurrency won't survive.

This seems not reasonable. I mean, why? Cryptocurrencies will not die without a reason that affects them. A stock market crash does not affect them, because cryptocurrencies are a totally different asset class.

A stock market crash is not the end of the world (only for some people that lose more funds than they can cope with).

[bitcoinforhelp]

pobably yes, same as gold price crash

[Bit_Happy]

If the stock market crashes, gold and US$ will be king. There will be massive rush to convert everything into gold and cash. Cryptocurrency won't survive.

Could you offer a bit more "proof?"
Cryptocurrency won't survive.
Why not?

[amspir]

If the stock market crashes, gold and US$ will be king. There will be massive rush to convert everything into gold and cash. Cryptocurrency won't survive.

I'd agree with that, but saying cryptocurrency wouldn't "survive" is an overstatement.   Cryptocurrency's value depends on utility in commerce, and it would suffer during an economic downturn, but to assume that the need for it would disappear entirely doesn't seem probable.

[marcus_of_augustus]

"Stockmarket crash" is a nice tidy term that public can fathom but doesn't even scratch the surface when describing most financial crises.

Autumn 2007 was when the market for MBS, CDO's and other exotic housing derivatives froze up (remember the "credit crunch" is well contained propaganda ~ H. Paulson?). That precipitated a general crisis of confidence in all money markets that felled Bear Stearns in Spring '08 and crisis festered on until the stockmarkets finally collapsed, money markets funds stopped paying $1-$1 and ATM's were rumoured to have been hours away from shutting down in Autumn '08 ... whilst Lehman Brothers bellied up and all the major banks were basically shown to be trading whilst insolvent (they changed the laws around GAAP to stop them being criminally prosecuted for doing so).

Long story short, the next crisis will not be just a simple "stock market" crash. The entire global monetary system is so intertwined now with the risk being more concentrated, with centralisation of debt and leverage on the central bank balance sheets and consolidation of assets into fewer mega trading banks, that the monetary system as a whole will just freeze up in its entirety. The state of the stock market will be an addendum to the whole sorry saga. It may take a few days, weeks or maybe it will struggle on for a month or so, but if this puppy goes down now, it is not getting back up. The Martingale game being played out by the banksters since Greenspan begun the run by doubling down in 1987 has reached the ultimate conclusion ... the next bet is for all the marbles, the global monetary system has been bet on red, and it is only a matter of time before fate throws up a black.

[BBmodBB]

"Stockmarket crash" is a nice tidy term that public can fathom but doesn't even scratch the surface when describing most financial crises.

Autumn 2007 was when the market for MBS, CDO's and other exotic housing derivatives froze up (remember the "credit crunch" is well contained propaganda ~ H. Paulson?). That precipitated a general crisis of confidence in all money markets that felled Bear Stearns in Spring '08 and crisis festered on until the stockmarkets finally collapsed, money markets funds stopped paying $1-$1 and ATM's were rumoured to have been hours away from shutting down in Autumn '08 ... whilst Lehman Brothers bellied up and all the major banks were basically shown to be trading whilst insolvent (they changed the laws around GAAP to stop them being criminally prosecuted for doing so).

Long story short, the next crisis will not be just a simple "stock market" crash. The entire global monetary system is so intertwined now with the risk being more concentrated, with centralisation of debt and leverage on the central bank balance sheets and consolidation of assets into fewer mega trading banks, that the monetary system as a whole will just freeze up in its entirety. The state of the stock market will be an addendum to the whole sorry saga. It may take a few days, weeks or maybe it will struggle on for a month or so, but if this puppy goes down now, it is not getting back up. The Martingale game being played out by the banksters since Greenspan begun the run by doubling down in 1987 has reached the ultimate conclusion ... the next bet is for all the marbles, the global monetary system has been bet on red, and it is only a matter of time before fate throws up a black.

^martingale the dog jones! LOLOLOLLL =)

[IIOII]

Long story short, the next crisis will not be just a simple "stock market" crash. The entire global monetary system is so intertwined now with the risk being more concentrated, with centralisation of debt and leverage on the central bank balance sheets and consolidation of assets into fewer mega trading banks, that the monetary system as a whole will just freeze up in its entirety. The state of the stock market will be an addendum to the whole sorry saga. It may take a few days, weeks or maybe it will struggle on for a month or so, but if this puppy goes down now, it is not getting back up. The Martingale game being played out by the banksters since Greenspan begun the run by doubling down in 1987 has reached the ultimate conclusion ... the next bet is for all the marbles, the global monetary system has been bet on red, and it is only a matter of time before fate throws up a black.

Your're writing like a witness of the apocalypse...

But I couldn't agree more. The next crash will be of epic proportions. But I still think life will go on after the dust has settled (years or decades).

[jamesc760]

Next crash won't be epic. It will be a minor dip. And then the market will recover and go on its merry way again. There's too much money, too much liquidity being put into reserves in the banks, at least in the US. Where the US goes, the world will follow. You can't deny it.

[jbrnt]

Stock market crash will drive investors into gold, bonds, debentures... because they want a safe and liquid investment. Bitcoin is too volatile to qualify as a save investment. Besides they are so many other global equities to choose from, even if they would consider bitcoin, it is way down the list.

[boumalo]

Next crash won't be epic. It will be a minor dip. And then the market will recover and go on its merry way again. There's too much money, too much liquidity being put into reserves in the banks, at least in the US. Where the US goes, the world will follow. You can't deny it.

In nominal values yes the us stocks will go up and some us companies are going to do well in the new world but the USD will collapse, Yellen is going to increase QE when it gets tough

[BBmodBB]

Next crash won't be epic. It will be a minor dip. And then the market will recover and go on its merry way again. There's too much money, too much liquidity being put into reserves in the banks, at least in the US. Where the US goes, the world will follow. You can't deny it.

+1 right? Obama is wayyyy too entrenched with Wall Street to let an epic crash happen! ;-) *jmho*

[nicked]

Obama is counting on a collapse.  Collapse = civil unrest = martial law = elections suspended = POTUS indefinately.

[Onar]

Not a chance. traders do not go from one volatile market to another. Iff big losses they search for safe harbours...

[jdun]

#1, people have been predicting a stock market crash for years, and just like apocalypse predictions, or predictions about the return of Jesus, they are all bullshit.
#2, if people really lost a lot of money in the stock market, the last thing they would want to do is re-invest the little they have left in something they know little about. Their faith is investments will be waivering, and likely they will be more inclined to invest conservatively, except for the gambling addicts (which are probably the small minority).

[frobley]

we've been converting paper to assets for some time...
some money will go into crypto via the last ones out I'm sure.

[tabnloz]

#2, if people really lost a lot of money in the stock market, the last thing they would want to do is re-invest the little they have left in something they know little about. Their faith is investments will be waivering, and likely they will be more inclined to invest conservatively, except for the gambling addicts (which are probably the small minority).

Not so, this is one of the side effects of ZIRP & QE

People in cash or who are trying to regain lost wealth have no incentive to stay in cash as they are losing money (inflation higher than rate of return in bank). This is not a mistake, it is designed to re-inflate the bubbles. People feel good when their assets are rising and there are only two mainstream games in town; stocks and RE. The Fed herds people into this market & market participants know the Fed can't stop printing and can't raise rates, so big banks and many regular joes are incentivized to throw all they have at it, effectively double down. If shit hits the fan they figure they'll be getting another handout anyway.

And a stockmarket crash is not bullshit, it's just a matter of time. The US doesn't want a crash and will print til they can't print anymore. Whether that is next week or in twenty years is up for debate. The US is using Japans minor leagues playbook and taking it to the majors. Who knows how or when it'll blow up good and proper, but when it does, its sayonara USD.

[boumalo]

#2, if people really lost a lot of money in the stock market, the last thing they would want to do is re-invest the little they have left in something they know little about. Their faith is investments will be waivering, and likely they will be more inclined to invest conservatively, except for the gambling addicts (which are probably the small minority).

Not so, this is one of the side effects of ZIRP & QE

People in cash or who are trying to regain lost wealth have no incentive to stay in cash as they are losing money (inflation higher than rate of return in bank). This is not a mistake, it is designed to re-inflate the bubbles. People feel good when their assets are rising and there are only two mainstream games in town; stocks and RE. The Fed herds people into this market & market participants know the Fed can't stop printing and can't raise rates, so big banks and many regular joes are incentivized to throw all they have at it, effectively double down. If shit hits the fan they figure they'll be getting another handout anyway.

And a stockmarket crash is not bullshit, it's just a matter of time. The US doesn't want a crash and will print til they can't print anymore. Whether that is next week or in twenty years is up for debate. The US is using Japans minor leagues playbook and taking it to the majors. Who knows how or when it'll blow up good and proper, but when it does, its sayonara USD.

The USD will crash it is just a matter a time bc when it gets worse, the FED will print like there is no tomorrow

A lot of US companies are great and have oversea revenues and their revenue is still going to be strong when the US kind of collapse

[aminorex]

deflation typically precedes hyperinflation.  in that scenario, expect bitcoin to decline during the early deflationary phase, and rise in anticipation of the hyperinflationary phase.

[boumalo]

deflation typically precedes hyperinflation.  in that scenario, expect bitcoin to decline during the early deflationary phase, and rise in anticipation of the hyperinflationary phase.

I don't see any deflation, we should have some and having 2% of official inflation is huge compared to having -3 or -4% but I agree that the price will rise as soon as we enter in the hyper inflationary phase that should start within 2-3years

[waldox]

bitcoin will explode just like what happened in cyprus
so will physical gold/silver

[boumalo]

bitcoin will explode just like what happened in cyprus
so will physical gold/silver

explode in the sense the price will go up tremendously?

[counter]

intersting question but there would be so much chaos if that happened I'm not so sure it would work out that way right away. 

[aminorex]

Either bitcoin itself or an IMF crypto is likely to be used for international settlements and primary reserves 5 to 10 years from now.  It would be foolish to create a novel crypto, with an untested codebase and protocol, and place it in such a central role in the global economy.  Therefore, I expect bitcoin to fulfill that role.

[boumalo]

Either bitcoin itself or an IMF crypto is likely to be used for international settlements and primary reserves 5 to 10 years from now.  It would be foolish to create a novel crypto, with an untested codebase and protocol, and place it in such a central role in the global economy.  Therefore, I expect bitcoin to fulfill that role.

We are hoping for that but there is some potential for money transfer or as a currency as well

[STT]

Your answer is on Exter's triangle and where can you place btc as speculative or utility I guess.    In a pullback or recession, people stick to the essentials.  Gold is only one of them as it is a solid asset, btc is a pretty flightly high velocity medium

[bryant.coleman]

In case of a stock market crash, people are likely to divert their investments to safe assets. With Bitcoin being considered as one of the most unsafe assets, I do't expect it to have a net gain in the likely event of a financial and economic crisis. So we will see the reduction in the USD vs BTC exchange rate, although with higher than average volumes.

[Erdogan]

deflation typically precedes hyperinflation.  in that scenario, expect bitcoin to decline during the early deflationary phase, and rise in anticipation of the hyperinflationary phase.

I agree. Just to add something: The reason for a price deflation is a loss of trust in debt, that leads to debt clearing and hence reduction of the money supply.

The next step is desperate literal printing of notes, and of course the government will still loan in open and covert ways. The same goes for privileged businesses.

When the tide turns, we will have excess money supply, and probably some years of high inflation (20 % p.a.)

In the process, the production structure will be distroyed (capital allocated to the wrong things) and lower wealth for everyone. That means stagflation.

[STT]

we will see the reduction in the USD vs BTC exchange rate

The thing is there is a point where the jelly mould gets turned upside down and the impossible happens, the liquid has become a solid and everything is reversed.   It is possible, as unlikely as it seems for BTC to rise in an extreme case of instability.

People say if deflation they will print money, well they already have done that.  That liquidity is mostly stored in bonds now and the USA has one of the lowest average turnovers in its debt in the world.  I think its about 4 years. Why would that be?  well its cheaper.
  If you fix a rate for many years, it rises to account for unknown and short term to borrow we know the rate goes as low as zero almost.  So its been policy to hold 17 trillion or so on very tight turnaround.  

   The other people who did this were the banks in 2008, including Lehmans; if they had financed 20 year even 10 year bonds as their debt they'd operating now I think.  But gov is special right?  no not in the end.
So the question is flawed, not stock sell off, bond sell off.    Forex > Bond > Shares > BTC   Thats the order and trillions are held in bonds and you know its trillions because that debt is a populations burden, not nearly as much is held as shares and its mostly private debt.  They just go broke, a stock crash is not the dam breaking you might think it is

 The big deal is  and afaik always has been debt financing and interest rates, if that breaks down as well it might then BTC  can rise substantially and personally I think it will  ( so long as the network stays true till then)


If you look at the triangle, diamonds are quite high up.  Would BTC rise if diamonds had a price crash ?  Not really a comparable substitute or necessary with other levels stable.   But each level you go lower it gets more serious if it fails and the possibility for BTC to come of age and prove itself becomes greater, can it be useful and reliable or not
The chart was made by the Fed before they joined the dark side :p

[BBmodBB]

we will see the reduction in the USD vs BTC exchange rate

The thing is there is a point where the jelly mould gets turned upside down and the impossible happens, the liquid has become a solid and everything is reversed.   It is possible, as unlikely as it seems for BTC to rise in an extreme case of instability.

People say if deflation they will print money, well they already have done that.  That liquidity is mostly stored in bonds now and the USA has one of the lowest average turnovers in its debt in the world.  I think its about 4 years. Why would that be?  well its cheaper.
  If you fix a rate for many years, it rises to account for unknown and short term to borrow we know the rate goes as low as zero almost.  So its been policy to hold 17 trillion or so on very tight turnaround.  

   The other people who did this were the banks in 2008, including Lehmans; if they had financed 20 year even 10 year bonds as their debt they'd operating now I think.  But gov is special right?  no not in the end.
So the question is flawed, not stock sell off, bond sell off.    Forex > Bond > Shares > BTC   Thats the order and trillions are held in bonds and you know its trillions because that debt is a populations burden, not nearly as much is held as shares and its mostly private debt.  They just go broke, a stock crash is not the dam breaking you might think it is

 The big deal is  and afaik always has been debt financing and interest rates, if that breaks down as well it might then BTC  can rise substantially and personally I think it will  ( so long as the network stays true till then)


If you look at the triangle, diamonds are quite high up.  Would BTC rise if diamonds had a price crash ?  Not really a comparable substitute or necessary with other levels stable.   But each level you go lower it gets more serious if it fails and the possibility for BTC to come of age and prove itself becomes greater, can it be useful and reliable or not
The chart was made by the Fed before they joined the dark side :p

i'm still hodling lehman bro bonds lmao!!!=O

[tooil]

When people lose trust, they will hang out to what they can hold in their hand.

Gold is still the insurance of last resort.

[STT]

i'm still hodling lehman bro bonds lmao!!!=O

I hope they are paying you back then.  I read recently some Leh bonds sold for 100, bought at 20 cents on the dollar after bankruptcy have no returned more then the original 100.   Ie. there was nothing wrong with the debt, it was viable.   This mostly applies to the european side of the business apparently, that was dragged under.   Even the USA based bonds should return money in many cases apparently, it just might take ten or twenty years

Sub prime Im not sure what the deal is, did it really all goto zero.  Except I read about demo groups like the wallstreet protesters buying housing debt and then releasing the home owners from the debt, or distributing the assets to the community.  Obviously that is charity as the bond has returned zero in that case

[redwhitenblue]

People would probably not pour their money into BTC after a stock market crash.

They would likely put money into ultrasafe investments.

The price of BTC and stocks (very risky investments) are correlated at least in the short term, and in the absence of other BTC related news.

[Ron~Popeil]

At this stage I don't think they would trust bit coin yet. I prefer they stay out as I would rather have solid growth than panic buying followed by profit taking etc.

[boumalo]

I think people will put their fiat into bitcoins when the inflation will get huge even measured by the official numbers and when the financial system will vibrate

[kerafym]

I think people will put their fiat into bitcoins when the inflation will get huge even measured by the official numbers and when the financial system will vibrate

Real estate is a less risky way to hedge inflation.

[alani123]

One can profit from bitcoin trading. Many believe that bitcoin trading is the future of trading because of the big potential profit it has thanks to the big price shifts. This bares some certain risk as well though. But when it comes to storing value, I don't thik that bitcoin would be the most reasonable way to do it. Through the ages, gold was used as a store of value. It's been proven that it can be used as a store of value for milleniums. However, in today's world bitcoin has a bigger potential to be used as an actual currency.

So it really depends on someone's needs.

[nickenburg]

Always when the stockmarket crash, there is so much panic in the media.
I just hope they wont take bitcoin down with them when that happens.
I know stocks and bitcoin are not related at all, but it can certainly happen people just pulling all there investment money back, to there wallets just to be safe.
Another scenario will indeed be people putting money in bitcoins because the stockmarket will be a bad place to invest for a while.
We will have to see what happens if there will be another stockmarket crash.

[efreeti]

Always when the stockmarket crash, there is so much panic in the media.
I just hope they wont take bitcoin down with them when that happens.
I know stocks and bitcoin are not related at all, but it can certainly happen people just pulling all there investment money back, to there wallets just to be safe.
Another scenario will indeed be people putting money in bitcoins because the stockmarket will be a bad place to invest for a while.
We will have to see what happens if there will be another stockmarket crash.

Stock market crashes will affect bitcoin price negatively.

A shortage of liquidity will mean high interest rate. People who borrow to speculate on bitcoin need to sell at any price to pay back loan. A higher interest rate also means money is better park at high yield bond than using it to hold bitcoin.

[zimmah]

Eventually bitcoin may even cause a stock market crash

and after the fiat price has tanked a lot, smart bitcoin holders may re-invest in bitcoin-friendly and future-proof companies extremely cheap. Of course not their entire bitcoin stash, but a moderate amount of it.

[marcus_of_augustus]

I think people will put their fiat into bitcoins when the inflation will get huge even measured by the official numbers and when the financial system will vibrate

Real estate is a less risky way to hedge inflation.

You should tell that to all the MBS holders from the Aug 2007 credit market seizures ... they turned illiquid (i.e. worthless) overnight.

[BBmodBB]

BUY BUY BUYYY BTCITCOIN STOCKS!!!!!! $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$



WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

[Slingshot]

 LOL, these clowns are so transparent. What losers...

 What next? More bailouts for Losers?

 And maybe Bonuses too, all for Failures?


 These same types would have one believe that Government Bonds and debt based fiat are sound, strong stores of value. But it's not true.

  NO more bailouts for LOSERS. No more bonuses for failure and to keep their key employee dummies quiet so as to not turn states evidence.

 No more debt-based fiat. It's mid-evil.

[BBmodBB]

LOL, these clowns are so transparent. What losers...

 What next? More bailouts for Losers?

 And maybe Bonuses too, all for Failures?


 These same types would have one believe that Government Bonds and debt based fiat are sound, strong stores of value. But it's not true.

  NO more bailouts for LOSERS. No more bonuses for failure and to keep their key employee dummies quiet so as to not turn states evidence.

 No more debt-based fiat. It's mid-evil.

did i see you at the Occupy rally? lmfao =)

[beetcoin]

LOL, these clowns are so transparent. What losers...

 What next? More bailouts for Losers?

 And maybe Bonuses too, all for Failures?


 These same types would have one believe that Government Bonds and debt based fiat are sound, strong stores of value. But it's not true.

  NO more bailouts for LOSERS. No more bonuses for failure and to keep their key employee dummies quiet so as to not turn states evidence.

 No more debt-based fiat. It's mid-evil.

did i see you at the Occupy rally? lmfao =)

i side with the occupy people a lot more than i do wall street.

[Ron~Popeil]

LOL, these clowns are so transparent. What losers...

 What next? More bailouts for Losers?

 And maybe Bonuses too, all for Failures?


 These same types would have one believe that Government Bonds and debt based fiat are sound, strong stores of value. But it's not true.

  NO more bailouts for LOSERS. No more bonuses for failure and to keep their key employee dummies quiet so as to not turn states evidence.

 No more debt-based fiat. It's mid-evil.

did i see you at the Occupy rally? lmfao =)

i side with the occupy people a lot more than i do wall street.

They had some valid points but got a little extreme with some of their demands. They also failed to turn it into a political movement unfortunately.

[BBmodBB]

LOL, these clowns are so transparent. What losers...

 What next? More bailouts for Losers?

 And maybe Bonuses too, all for Failures?


 These same types would have one believe that Government Bonds and debt based fiat are sound, strong stores of value. But it's not true.

  NO more bailouts for LOSERS. No more bonuses for failure and to keep their key employee dummies quiet so as to not turn states evidence.

 No more debt-based fiat. It's mid-evil.

did i see you at the Occupy rally? lmfao =)

i side with the occupy people a lot more than i do wall street.

good one!~ so wise where do you think the movement started?   

[beetcoin]

LOL, these clowns are so transparent. What losers...

 What next? More bailouts for Losers?

 And maybe Bonuses too, all for Failures?


 These same types would have one believe that Government Bonds and debt based fiat are sound, strong stores of value. But it's not true.

  NO more bailouts for LOSERS. No more bonuses for failure and to keep their key employee dummies quiet so as to not turn states evidence.

 No more debt-based fiat. It's mid-evil.

did i see you at the Occupy rally? lmfao =)

i side with the occupy people a lot more than i do wall street.

They had some valid points but got a little extreme with some of their demands. They also failed to turn it into a political movement unfortunately.

i think they were stupid enough to not organize. they probably thought that organizing leads to corruption, but you can't really get anything done when everybody is swinging in different directions.

[Swordsoffreedom]

Possibly, the reason I say this is that they would require a bit more technical knowledge on the aspects of Bitcoin to invest in it
That said Bitcoin happens to be one of the best and worst performing assets depending on when you bought your Bitcoins and also one of the largest return profits.
It might have changed with the rise of altcoins but the risk return may be higher than a traditional stock investment.

[Harley997]

That article is nothing more then speculation. No one really knows then there will be a stock market crash. If they did not certainly would not advertise it, they would simply sell stocks short and buy put options.

To answer your question, a stock market crash would cause the price of BTC to fall as stock market crashes cause people to become more risk adverse and BTC carries a lot of risk.

[boumalo]

That article is nothing more then speculation. No one really knows then there will be a stock market crash. If they did not certainly would not advertise it, they would simply sell stocks short and buy put options.

To answer your question, a stock market crash would cause the price of BTC to fall as stock market crashes cause people to become more risk adverse and BTC carries a lot of risk.

We are likely to keep seeing a nominale increase in the price of stocks as the FED prints more USD and the USA goes into more debt to buy some growth and some time
Companies that are natural ressources related or sell in the so called developing work will fare greatly but a market crash or two and a few big wars will happen before the developing countries become richer than most the western world

[cbeast]

People said I was nuts last year when I told them DJIA would hit 18K this year. It's really looking that way. I think 20K is the final tipping point.

[boumalo]

People said I was nuts last year when I told them DJIA would hit 18K this year. It's really looking that way. I think 20K is the final tipping point.

In Gold or Bitcoin the Dow  has been going down since 2000

[Ron~Popeil]

People said I was nuts last year when I told them DJIA would hit 18K this year. It's really looking that way. I think 20K is the final tipping point.

In Gold or Bitcoin the Dow  has been going down since 2000

Wait until the fed starts raising interest rates. It is going to get ugly.

[boumalo]

People said I was nuts last year when I told them DJIA would hit 18K this year. It's really looking that way. I think 20K is the final tipping point.

In Gold or Bitcoin the Dow  has been going down since 2000

Wait until the fed starts raising interest rates. It is going to get ugly.

They should raise them and stop manipulating the markets and it would get utterly ugly but the easiest solution for them will be to print USD until USD looses most its value

[Erdogan]

People said I was nuts last year when I told them DJIA would hit 18K this year. It's really looking that way. I think 20K is the final tipping point.

In Gold or Bitcoin the Dow  has been going down since 2000

Wait until the fed starts raising interest rates. It is going to get ugly.

They should raise them and stop manipulating the markets and it would get utterly ugly but the easiest solution for them will be to print USD until USD looses most its value

The market will raise the interest rate, eventually.

[Harley997]

People said I was nuts last year when I told them DJIA would hit 18K this year. It's really looking that way. I think 20K is the final tipping point.

In Gold or Bitcoin the Dow  has been going down since 2000

Wait until the fed starts raising interest rates. It is going to get ugly.

This is the problem with QE, it is creating artificial asset price increases. When QE is finished and short term rates start to increase asset prices will start to decrease at a frightening pace.

[Swordsoffreedom]

People said I was nuts last year when I told them DJIA would hit 18K this year. It's really looking that way. I think 20K is the final tipping point.

In Gold or Bitcoin the Dow  has been going down since 2000

Wait until the fed starts raising interest rates. It is going to get ugly.

This is the problem with QE, it is creating artificial asset price increases. When QE is finished and short term rates start to increase asset prices will start to decrease at a frightening pace.

That definitely does happen, the housing crisis was a good example of that bad loans given out to people with bad credit combined with a economic circumstance led to that crisis.
Another area worth looking at is the student loans market and if their is a collapse coming in that area.

[boumalo]

People said I was nuts last year when I told them DJIA would hit 18K this year. It's really looking that way. I think 20K is the final tipping point.

In Gold or Bitcoin the Dow  has been going down since 2000

Wait until the fed starts raising interest rates. It is going to get ugly.

This is the problem with QE, it is creating artificial asset price increases. When QE is finished and short term rates start to increase asset prices will start to decrease at a frightening pace.

That definitely does happen, the housing crisis was a good example of that bad loans given out to people with bad credit combined with a economic circumstance led to that crisis.
Another area worth looking at is the student loans market and if their is a collapse coming in that area.

The problem started during the dotcom bubble in 2000 and the low interests rates that follow, the housing crisis was due to the interest rates raise but the rates are lower than ever now and the bad debt and bad companies have not been flushed out because the politicians want to avoid a crisis during their watch at all costs

[Ron~Popeil]

People said I was nuts last year when I told them DJIA would hit 18K this year. It's really looking that way. I think 20K is the final tipping point.

In Gold or Bitcoin the Dow  has been going down since 2000

Wait until the fed starts raising interest rates. It is going to get ugly.

This is the problem with QE, it is creating artificial asset price increases. When QE is finished and short term rates start to increase asset prices will start to decrease at a frightening pace.

That definitely does happen, the housing crisis was a good example of that bad loans given out to people with bad credit combined with a economic circumstance led to that crisis.
Another area worth looking at is the student loans market and if their is a collapse coming in that area.

The student loan meltdown will be really big. The government and banks have been shoveling money into that pit for a few decades now.

[Harley997]

People said I was nuts last year when I told them DJIA would hit 18K this year. It's really looking that way. I think 20K is the final tipping point.

In Gold or Bitcoin the Dow  has been going down since 2000

Wait until the fed starts raising interest rates. It is going to get ugly.

This is the problem with QE, it is creating artificial asset price increases. When QE is finished and short term rates start to increase asset prices will start to decrease at a frightening pace.

That definitely does happen, the housing crisis was a good example of that bad loans given out to people with bad credit combined with a economic circumstance led to that crisis.
Another area worth looking at is the student loans market and if their is a collapse coming in that area.

The student loan crisis will probably not cause a massive quick economic crash. A student loan crisis will cause loan term economic damage.

The financial crisis was as bad as it was because people did not know how bad off the banks were so they would take out their deposits and other banks would not lend to them. The question was how much were the investments that banks owned (mortgage backed securities) are worth.

Student loans are mostly owned by the federal government. They can also be collected on in many more ways then mortgages can be. As a result borrowers (of student loans) will face lifetimes of economic hardship and a lower rate of consumption causing lower economic growth.

[jeffersonairplane]

I would not give that site any credibility. It seems as it they are just posting it for the hell of it with no statistical or factual based evidence.

[Ron~Popeil]

People said I was nuts last year when I told them DJIA would hit 18K this year. It's really looking that way. I think 20K is the final tipping point.

In Gold or Bitcoin the Dow  has been going down since 2000

Wait until the fed starts raising interest rates. It is going to get ugly.

This is the problem with QE, it is creating artificial asset price increases. When QE is finished and short term rates start to increase asset prices will start to decrease at a frightening pace.

That definitely does happen, the housing crisis was a good example of that bad loans given out to people with bad credit combined with a economic circumstance led to that crisis.
Another area worth looking at is the student loans market and if their is a collapse coming in that area.

The student loan crisis will probably not cause a massive quick economic crash. A student loan crisis will cause loan term economic damage.

The financial crisis was as bad as it was because people did not know how bad off the banks were so they would take out their deposits and other banks would not lend to them. The question was how much were the investments that banks owned (mortgage backed securities) are worth.

Student loans are mostly owned by the federal government. They can also be collected on in many more ways then mortgages can be. As a result borrowers (of student loans) will face lifetimes of economic hardship and a lower rate of consumption causing lower economic growth.

It isn't so much the actual debt, but the psychological impact of yet another crisis. There are a lot of banks that will get stiffed when the government can't back up the guarantees. This one like most of the other "crises" was government manufactured.

[Unluckyduck]

If another stock market crash occurs and it is severe enough I doubt most people would be able to even afford a computer because it would be the depression v2.0

[percocet]

I think a stock market crash would cause the price of Bitcoin to plummet, at first, as would gold and silver. The panic would cause people to start to liquidate everything in sight.

After the dust settles, Bitcoin and precious metals would rise drastically as people would realize that it is better to have assets outside of the control of traditional finance.

[Erdogan]

We need a reversed debt clock, one which counts the days to the global reset downwards.

[STT]

Nobody knows that date, its more a question of odds.   What are the odds of china buying 100% of usa debt, seems low but its possible and so this can go on forever

I think a stock market crash would cause the price of Bitcoin to plummet, at first, as would gold and silver. The panic would cause people to start to liquidate everything in sight.

When people sell stock, they are buying currency.  A sale must include a purchase also.    So somebody is asking could bitcoin be that currency.

I own some BTC stock, I exchanged BTC to buy that share.    When BTC price goes up it tends to put pressure on that stock price as people are more willing to sell and take profit.    So its already true when this stock crashes, its owners are changing to bitcoin.   

Thats not fiat though.    More relevant is if dollar crashes in value, would people buy bitcoin and they probably would.   If only to transport it abroad, some would use it.    Most stocks give out their dividends in dollars, so by selling they are also giving up those future dollars.   If dollar is going down, then changing to btc would make some sense.  But theres many currencies so its very confusing who is best but its usually the most productive nation with a trade surplus. 

As an enterprise, btc has less transaction fees then it gives out in block rewards.   So I will guess and call this a virtual nation with a trade deficit still, the btc nation needs to do more work and capture more fees to say its self confirming not reliant on outside influence?

[lihuajkl]

wouldn't. Bitcoin is not recognized currency yet, still new technology and the price fluctuates a lot. People is not confident with it yet. people would pour there cash into more traditional safe assets, such as bond, gold, saving, definitely bitcoin.

[Ron~Popeil]

wouldn't. Bitcoin is not recognized currency yet, still new technology and the price fluctuates a lot. People is not confident with it yet. people would pour there cash into more traditional safe assets, such as bond, gold, saving, definitely bitcoin.

Some would others not so much. It depends on how savvy each investor is.

[tooil]

Investors would have been burn so badly they will be not likely to trust someone else with their money.

Hard asset and cash on hand would be more likely asset investors want to hang onto.

[ajareselde]

u cant realy know for sure, all it takes is a certaing percentage of them moveing to bitcoin, and others will follow.
alot of you say that , if they get burned there , they wont try bitcoin and risk getting burned again, but i think you dont understand traders phylosophy.
noone is willing to finish with a loss, you will rather loose everything trying , than to settle with a loss

[GigaBit]

I'm a Gold miner and dealer, I came to Bitcoin, why?

Go back to November 2013 - The SCARE of a US Government shutdown is what was the main catalyst in that price rise.  There's actually some hedge funds that work on the same level as Gold and many IRA sellers now offer Bitcoin to their client's portfolio.  The death of the USD will affect the USA first and foremost.  The Chinese Yuan or Euro which will likely replace the USD as world reserve is also one of the currencies most traded in Bitcoin; this means that if the USD loses its status, Bitcoin will use the next world reserve to price itself and related assets.

I sell gold and Bitcoin is more wanted than Gold because it can't be seized and large amounts can easily be hidden.  One ton of gold is about 14 inches cubed but weighs about 1 ton (2,000 LBS).  Yeah, try dragging that around with you.  Even if Gold is a physical store of value, it's not efficient if you keep it at home because Gold is VERY heavy, one of the heaviest elements on the table (19.2x heavier than water).  Even that ton is a mere $40M...  Not necessarily a whole lot of money today.  You can hide that same amount of money in your shoe on a SD card with bitcoin if you want.

During the $1,000 times people were flocking to Bitcoin because it was more readily available than anything else.  Gold requires shipping and in times like those, vaults run dry quickly.  During that same time, Gold was losing in value, Gold went up and went back down as fast as the government re-opened its doors but Bitcoin remained high until the Gox incident.

I own little Gold anymore (I have a claim anyways) other than a few nice nuggets but everything else I have is in Bitcoin.  I know it will be easier to sell Bitcoin than it will be to sell gold; Bitcoin doesn't require shipping and is traded within an hour.  When the Dollar dies, it will mean the big break for bitcoin because it will be the only readily available form of value transfer.  There is too many "virtual" gold that if everyone cashed out at once, there would be a crash in the price of Gold itself... because if your gold is in a vault that won't ship it to you or you need to wait months, it's not worth anything.

There's a saying in Gold mining: If your Gold isn't in your pocket, your Gold is worthless.

The world isn't going to end when the dollar dies.  People will find the most accessible way to exchange money.  Bitcoin will be that readily available source of exchange because Gold reserves will be dry within an hour, cash withdrawals will either come to a halt or be shutdown.

What's you're looking at is a much harder to digest Cyprus, mostly for Americans who live the USD because most of the world no longer uses the USD to trade....  Pretty much, it's gonna suck for you if you live breath and sleep the USD and are unprepared.  I'd be willing to bet the rest of the world will barely break a sweat.  Most of the ASD death fear out there is driven from large Gold dealers.  America is heading for a re-birth --> #Kondratiev Wave

Save your coin!

PS: During the last US governmental Gold confiscation, it wasn't even forced, only a few schmucks willingly surrendered their gold.  For those who want to make sure, coins minted prior to 1933 cannot be confiscated but tyrants don't follow the rules to begin with.

[GigaBit]

After a crash, it is too late, you've lost everything.

Whist a crash is happening though, it's possible but still not easy.

If you have no money in an exchange that sell bitcoin, the price point would be rather high.

I still think people would trust bitcoin more than a dead fiat or a dead stock even if bitcoin was $10 a piece, 100 years ago, $10 could buy you everything in a grocery store

[ljudotina]

It prett ymuch depends on how many stock owners know and understand bitcoin. If they all would understand it, than yes i think they would flock to bitcoin. But i really doubdt.

[Gyfts]

not at all. They would invest in gold if anything rather than Bitcoin. It's a better alt.

[boumalo]

not at all. They would invest in gold if anything rather than Bitcoin. It's a better alt.

An asset going up doesn't mean an other one won't go up as well for similar reasons or other reasons

Bitcoin will look pretty good when the USD tanks and the US&UE debt are totally unstainable

[ShakyhandsBTCer]

Investors would have been burn so badly they will be not likely to trust someone else with their money.

Hard asset and cash on hand would be more likely asset investors want to hang onto.

Exactly!

After a stock market crash, investors will be very risk adverse and would not want to risk what funds they have left in something that is more risky then stocks.

[Harley997]

not at all. They would invest in gold if anything rather than Bitcoin. It's a better alt.

Bitcoin would likely suffer in the event of a stock market crash.

Maybe in 10 years when bitcoin is less risky will it's price rise when markets crash

[boumalo]

Investors would have been burn so badly they will be not likely to trust someone else with their money.

Hard asset and cash on hand would be more likely asset investors want to hang onto.

Exactly!

After a stock market crash, investors will be very risk adverse and would not want to risk what funds they have left in something that is more risky then stocks.

People who will buy bitcoins or hold to them bitcoins would be people already interested by bitcoins

Gold is risky and volatile but in case of market crash or hyper inflation it is a safer asset for some so the price raises

[ShakyhandsBTCer]

Investors would have been burn so badly they will be not likely to trust someone else with their money.

Hard asset and cash on hand would be more likely asset investors want to hang onto.

Exactly!

After a stock market crash, investors will be very risk adverse and would not want to risk what funds they have left in something that is more risky then stocks.

People who will buy bitcoins or hold to them bitcoins would be people already interested by bitcoins

Gold is risky and volatile but in case of market crash or hyper inflation it is a safer asset for some so the price raises

People who buy bitcoin sometimes see it's potential as a possible currency but may have little interest in it.

Gold has long been a vehicle to hedge against inflation of any kind.

[counter]

I think it's more likely that the cash would pour into bitcoin then people pouring all their money into Bitcoin.  If things get that bad the average person will not have Bitcoin on the mine at all.  Most likely will be looking for the bear necessitates I suppose.

[Harley997]

I think it's more likely that the cash would pour into bitcoin then people pouring all their money into Bitcoin.  If things get that bad the average person will not have Bitcoin on the mine at all.  Most likely will be looking for the bear necessitates I suppose.

Can you please clarify your post? It sounds like that you said two opposite things in terms of what would happen in the event of a stock market crash.

[boumalo]

I think it's more likely that the cash would pour into bitcoin then people pouring all their money into Bitcoin.  If things get that bad the average person will not have Bitcoin on the mine at all.  Most likely will be looking for the bear necessitates I suppose.

Can you please clarify your post? It sounds like that you said two opposite things in terms of what would happen in the event of a stock market crash.

He wanted to say : I think it's more likely that the cash would pour into (OTHER THING THAN BITCOIN=exemple food) then people pouring all their money into Bitcoin.  If things get that bad the average person will not have Bitcoin on the mine at all.  Most likely will be looking for the bear necessitates I suppose.

[Harley997]

I think it's more likely that the cash would pour into bitcoin then people pouring all their money into Bitcoin.  If things get that bad the average person will not have Bitcoin on the mine at all.  Most likely will be looking for the bear necessitates I suppose.

Can you please clarify your post? It sounds like that you said two opposite things in terms of what would happen in the event of a stock market crash.

He wanted to say : I think it's more likely that the cash would pour into (OTHER THING THAN BITCOIN=exemple food) then people pouring all their money into Bitcoin.  If things get that bad the average person will not have Bitcoin on the mine at all.  Most likely will be looking for the bear necessitates I suppose.

I guess that would be true. People would likely not wish to take additional risks when they just lot a lot from taking risks

[CurbsideProphet]

A market crash is a destruction of wealth.  In those times, most assets, especially volatile ones, will see a net outflow.

[cbeast]

A market crash is a destruction of wealth.  In those times, most assets, especially volatile ones, will see a net outflow.

I keep hearing that term "destruction of wealth" like it's a real thing. It's more like a realization of actual wealth.

[STT]

Deflation is not destruction anymore then creating inflation makes a nation richer.   IF you really believe that you should have framed picture of Bernake and greenspan on your desk because they believe its real, they are the saviours of country just by expanding the monetary base.


A stock market crash unwinds values, mostly its a reflection of slower growth and possible earnings returns in future.   Often you may find a company selling for 20 or 40 years earnings not because its expensive but they believe in just a few years the company might double its production so the real PE extrapolated out to five years might actually be 10PE.  
If that process of estimation is incorrect then share prices come down but the value was never destroyed nor was it there created already, its an investment with multiple outcomes


The answer to the OP is yes.   Share prices could over estimate company growth, bitcoin price could underestimate the worth of an online transaction system so on balance money could flow from one to the other.
Dollars themselves are the usual result of a share trade however with interest rates on trillions of debt nearing zero already, with the Federal reserve the main holder and returning that interest right back to government then dollar is easily overvalued possibly.   Again on balance we can expect over-valuation to unwind, the sum total could be crash and a boom for bitcoin - if its useful

[DannyElfman]

A market crash is a destruction of wealth.  In those times, most assets, especially volatile ones, will see a net outflow.

I keep hearing that term "destruction of wealth" like it's a real thing. It's more like a realization of actual wealth.

The actual amount of wealth is the amount that the market says it is. If the market is willing to pay $2.5 for a widget then the widget is worth $2.5 no matter what anyone else says it is worth

[negafen]

A market crash is a destruction of wealth.  In those times, most assets, especially volatile ones, will see a net outflow.

I keep hearing that term "destruction of wealth" like it's a real thing. It's more like a realization of actual wealth.

The actual amount of wealth is the amount that the market says it is. If the market is willing to pay $2.5 for a widget then the widget is worth $2.5 no matter what anyone else says it is worth

If the production cost is higher than market price, then the widget will slowly disappear.

[Harley997]

A market crash is a destruction of wealth.  In those times, most assets, especially volatile ones, will see a net outflow.

I keep hearing that term "destruction of wealth" like it's a real thing. It's more like a realization of actual wealth.

Your actual wealth is the amount that the market says your assets are worth at any given time

[abercrombie]

I believe we'd get some percentage of residual money from a stock market crash.

When the stock market goes down, there is a strengthening of the USD which economists call a "flight to quality."

Bitcoin is an alternative to the dollar.

[STT]

Strength of the dollar is a major thing to watch when predicting the prices of commodities.    I agree if stocks crash it usually means stronger dollar, that would also mean greater pressure on the price of Bitcoin.   If it just stays steady then value has risen, its rising with dollar so thats good but there is pressure on any commodity price when a currency is stronger, oil too usually.  

Thats not bad because an economy benefits from lower prices.  If oil rises too much it starts to effect business cost and profitability/viability.   So at the moment I think bitcoin would act like a commodity in that respect.    The bigger deal is will dollars always rise on this sell off or fear type move in markets and its likely not going to always be this way.
   When gov was threatening not to pay its debt, the price and value of that debt rose which is stupid but its from the same effect which is most trade is settled in dollars (including bitcoin)

If the production cost is higher than market price, then the widget will slowly disappear.

Comes back to supply and demand.    The widget might have competitive alternatives but its either a needed item or not, if in demand it'll then rise in price till above production cost

[DannyElfman]

I believe we'd get some percentage of residual money from a stock market crash.

When the stock market goes down, there is a strengthening of the USD which economists call a "flight to quality."

Bitcoin is an alternative to the dollar.

I would say that bitcoin is more of a competitor to the dollar. If the dollar rallies due to the flight to quality (safety) then competitors would fall

[STT]

Dollar index has fallen from 120 in year 2000 to below 80 now.   If it keeps falling like it has, that would seem to favour alternatives.   Thats a rate of 1.9% deprecation compounded so what is bitcoins annual inflation.  I know in theory its capped one day but now

[okthen]

A stock market crash right now wouldn't affect too much bitcoin. There's still not enough infrastructure/awareness to allow stock traders to quickly move to cryptos.
However, if it happens in a year or so, the scenario might be completely different and cause a major buy in into btc.

[twiifm]

If there was a crash like 2008.  I'd buy stocks hand over fist.   Easy money.

[CoinsCoinsEverywhere]

A stock market crash right now wouldn't affect too much bitcoin. There's still not enough infrastructure/awareness to allow stock traders to quickly move to cryptos.
However, if it happens in a year or so, the scenario might be completely different and cause a major buy in into btc.

Yes, there needs to be an easy way to sell stocks and buy bitcoin (or a proxy thereof) on the same platform.  If/when a bitcoin ETF becomes tradable, it will then be possible for average investors to buy into bitcoin easily.

[Swordsoffreedom]

If there was a crash like 2008.  I'd buy stocks hand over fist.   Easy money.

You mean short the stocks hand over fist then buy the stocks back at a giant discount and keep the spare profits
Easy money

[twiifm]

If there was a crash like 2008.  I'd buy stocks hand over fist.   Easy money.

You mean short the stocks hand over fist then buy the stocks back at a giant discount and keep the spare profits
Easy money

Yeah that too.   

I love shorting.   I made a lot shorting TSLA,  AMZN,  TWTR from feb to april.   Now I'm long on those plus DDD.  And recently made killing on GPRO

But its really hard to see the trend though and you need balls of steel to be the contrarian

[Swordsoffreedom]

If there was a crash like 2008.  I'd buy stocks hand over fist.   Easy money.

You mean short the stocks hand over fist then buy the stocks back at a giant discount and keep the spare profits
Easy money

Yeah that too.   

I love shorting.   I made a lot shorting TSLA,  AMZN,  TWTR from feb to april.   Now I'm long on those plus DDD.  And recently made killing on GPRO

But its really hard to see the trend though and you need balls of steel to be the contrarian

True enough it is quite the thrill and also the one that is a bit crazy to use the shorts ^_^
It might work though but its easier to say buy low sell high than it is to say
Sell high short till it gets low then buy low and Hold till its High or their is a nice stable dividend to rely on instead of a share price appreciation.

Then again short and simple is sweet no need to add the rest

Sell High Buy Low and Short if Overvalued

[SaveForrest]

Either bitcoin itself or an IMF crypto is likely to be used for international settlements and primary reserves 5 to 10 years from now.  It would be foolish to create a novel crypto, with an untested codebase and protocol, and place it in such a central role in the global economy.  Therefore, I expect bitcoin to fulfill that role.

but what about other promising altcoins? VeriCoin, Monero or DarkCoin or NXT? I put my money proportionally into 9 cryptos, instead of all into BTC. What if BTC plummets to $150??

[DannyElfman]

Either bitcoin itself or an IMF crypto is likely to be used for international settlements and primary reserves 5 to 10 years from now.  It would be foolish to create a novel crypto, with an untested codebase and protocol, and place it in such a central role in the global economy.  Therefore, I expect bitcoin to fulfill that role.

but what about other promising altcoins? VeriCoin, Monero or DarkCoin or NXT? I put my money proportionally into 9 cryptos, instead of all into BTC. What if BTC plummets to $150??

In general all of the crypto coins trade at a steady rate per BTC. In other words, when priced in fiat when BTC goes up all the other cryptos go up by the same amount.

[InwardContour]

A stock market crash right now wouldn't affect too much bitcoin. There's still not enough infrastructure/awareness to allow stock traders to quickly move to cryptos.
However, if it happens in a year or so, the scenario might be completely different and cause a major buy in into btc.

Yes, there needs to be an easy way to sell stocks and buy bitcoin (or a proxy thereof) on the same platform.  If/when a bitcoin ETF becomes tradable, it will then be possible for average investors to buy into bitcoin easily.

The ETF will also likely increase public awareness of bitcoin, causing more people to adopt bitcoin.

[CoinsCoinsEverywhere]

A stock market crash right now wouldn't affect too much bitcoin. There's still not enough infrastructure/awareness to allow stock traders to quickly move to cryptos.
However, if it happens in a year or so, the scenario might be completely different and cause a major buy in into btc.

Yes, there needs to be an easy way to sell stocks and buy bitcoin (or a proxy thereof) on the same platform.  If/when a bitcoin ETF becomes tradable, it will then be possible for average investors to buy into bitcoin easily.

The ETF will also likely increase public awareness of bitcoin, causing more people to adopt bitcoin.

Probably true, but direct investment will have a much larger effect on bitcoin price than adoption.  Additionally, a bitcoin ETF would grant access to a lot more capital as people could then invest with 401ks and other retirement savings.

[Harley997]

A stock market crash right now wouldn't affect too much bitcoin. There's still not enough infrastructure/awareness to allow stock traders to quickly move to cryptos.
However, if it happens in a year or so, the scenario might be completely different and cause a major buy in into btc.

Yes, there needs to be an easy way to sell stocks and buy bitcoin (or a proxy thereof) on the same platform.  If/when a bitcoin ETF becomes tradable, it will then be possible for average investors to buy into bitcoin easily.

The ETF will also likely increase public awareness of bitcoin, causing more people to adopt bitcoin.

Probably true, but direct investment will have a much larger effect on bitcoin price than adoption.  Additionally, a bitcoin ETF would grant access to a lot more capital as people could then invest with 401ks and other retirement savings.

A ETF would not be available in most workers' 401(k) accounts as the investment choices are limited by the plan administrator of the accounts.

I would be very interested to see how fungible a BTC EFT is compared to bitcoin. That is how easy it would be to go from a share in the ETF to bitcoin.

[CoinsCoinsEverywhere]

A stock market crash right now wouldn't affect too much bitcoin. There's still not enough infrastructure/awareness to allow stock traders to quickly move to cryptos.
However, if it happens in a year or so, the scenario might be completely different and cause a major buy in into btc.

Yes, there needs to be an easy way to sell stocks and buy bitcoin (or a proxy thereof) on the same platform.  If/when a bitcoin ETF becomes tradable, it will then be possible for average investors to buy into bitcoin easily.

The ETF will also likely increase public awareness of bitcoin, causing more people to adopt bitcoin.

Probably true, but direct investment will have a much larger effect on bitcoin price than adoption.  Additionally, a bitcoin ETF would grant access to a lot more capital as people could then invest with 401ks and other retirement savings.

A ETF would not be available in most workers' 401(k) accounts as the investment choices are limited by the plan administrator of the accounts.

I would be very interested to see how fungible a BTC EFT is compared to bitcoin. That is how easy it would be to go from a share in the ETF to bitcoin.

Really?  Plan administrators restrict the ETFs you can buy in a 401(k)?  I didn't know that as my retirement plan only allows investment in mutual funds.  Maybe I was thinking of IRAs.  In any case, thanks for pointing that out.

[Harley997]

A stock market crash right now wouldn't affect too much bitcoin. There's still not enough infrastructure/awareness to allow stock traders to quickly move to cryptos.
However, if it happens in a year or so, the scenario might be completely different and cause a major buy in into btc.

Yes, there needs to be an easy way to sell stocks and buy bitcoin (or a proxy thereof) on the same platform.  If/when a bitcoin ETF becomes tradable, it will then be possible for average investors to buy into bitcoin easily.

The ETF will also likely increase public awareness of bitcoin, causing more people to adopt bitcoin.

Probably true, but direct investment will have a much larger effect on bitcoin price than adoption.  Additionally, a bitcoin ETF would grant access to a lot more capital as people could then invest with 401ks and other retirement savings.

A ETF would not be available in most workers' 401(k) accounts as the investment choices are limited by the plan administrator of the accounts.

I would be very interested to see how fungible a BTC EFT is compared to bitcoin. That is how easy it would be to go from a share in the ETF to bitcoin.

Really?  Plan administrators restrict the ETFs you can buy in a 401(k)?  I didn't know that as my retirement plan only allows investment in mutual funds.  Maybe I was thinking of IRAs.  In any case, thanks for pointing that out.

You can't actually trade ETFs with a 401k the same way that you can trade them in a normal brokerage account, but you can hold some ETfs if the plan allows it.

You are correct to say that you can hold any ETF in an IRA (as long as it trades on a major exchange) but the value of funds in IRAs is much less then what is held in 401(k)s

[DannyElfman]

A stock market crash right now wouldn't affect too much bitcoin. There's still not enough infrastructure/awareness to allow stock traders to quickly move to cryptos.
However, if it happens in a year or so, the scenario might be completely different and cause a major buy in into btc.

Yes, there needs to be an easy way to sell stocks and buy bitcoin (or a proxy thereof) on the same platform.  If/when a bitcoin ETF becomes tradable, it will then be possible for average investors to buy into bitcoin easily.

The ETF will also likely increase public awareness of bitcoin, causing more people to adopt bitcoin.

Probably true, but direct investment will have a much larger effect on bitcoin price than adoption.  Additionally, a bitcoin ETF would grant access to a lot more capital as people could then invest with 401ks and other retirement savings.

A ETF would not be available in most workers' 401(k) accounts as the investment choices are limited by the plan administrator of the accounts.

I would be very interested to see how fungible a BTC EFT is compared to bitcoin. That is how easy it would be to go from a share in the ETF to bitcoin.

Really?  Plan administrators restrict the ETFs you can buy in a 401(k)?  I didn't know that as my retirement plan only allows investment in mutual funds.  Maybe I was thinking of IRAs.  In any case, thanks for pointing that out.

I wouldn't worry about people pouring their retirement funds into bitcoin when the ETF comes out, I would be excited about large institutions buying into bitcoin. If consumers wanted to invest in bitcoin they could simply buy it via an exchange.

[ShakyhandsBTCer]

A stock market crash right now wouldn't affect too much bitcoin. There's still not enough infrastructure/awareness to allow stock traders to quickly move to cryptos.
However, if it happens in a year or so, the scenario might be completely different and cause a major buy in into btc.

Yes, there needs to be an easy way to sell stocks and buy bitcoin (or a proxy thereof) on the same platform.  If/when a bitcoin ETF becomes tradable, it will then be possible for average investors to buy into bitcoin easily.

The ETF will also likely increase public awareness of bitcoin, causing more people to adopt bitcoin.

Probably true, but direct investment will have a much larger effect on bitcoin price than adoption.  Additionally, a bitcoin ETF would grant access to a lot more capital as people could then invest with 401ks and other retirement savings.

A ETF would not be available in most workers' 401(k) accounts as the investment choices are limited by the plan administrator of the accounts.

I would be very interested to see how fungible a BTC EFT is compared to bitcoin. That is how easy it would be to go from a share in the ETF to bitcoin.

Really?  Plan administrators restrict the ETFs you can buy in a 401(k)?  I didn't know that as my retirement plan only allows investment in mutual funds.  Maybe I was thinking of IRAs.  In any case, thanks for pointing that out.

You can't actually trade ETFs with a 401k the same way that you can trade them in a normal brokerage account, but you can hold some ETfs if the plan allows it.

You are correct to say that you can hold any ETF in an IRA (as long as it trades on a major exchange) but the value of funds in IRAs is much less then what is held in 401(k)s

Maybe once enough people invest in bitcoin in the "mainstream" world then more large, early adopters will sell their holdings, further diversifying the holders of bitcoin in circulation 

[okthen]

A stock market crash right now wouldn't affect too much bitcoin. There's still not enough infrastructure/awareness to allow stock traders to quickly move to cryptos.
However, if it happens in a year or so, the scenario might be completely different and cause a major buy in into btc.

Yes, there needs to be an easy way to sell stocks and buy bitcoin (or a proxy thereof) on the same platform.  If/when a bitcoin ETF becomes tradable, it will then be possible for average investors to buy into bitcoin easily.

The ETF will also likely increase public awareness of bitcoin, causing more people to adopt bitcoin.

So it's set. We need that market crash to come after the Winklevoss eft comes to light.
Hurry up guys!

[ShakyhandsBTCer]

A stock market crash right now wouldn't affect too much bitcoin. There's still not enough infrastructure/awareness to allow stock traders to quickly move to cryptos.
However, if it happens in a year or so, the scenario might be completely different and cause a major buy in into btc.

Yes, there needs to be an easy way to sell stocks and buy bitcoin (or a proxy thereof) on the same platform.  If/when a bitcoin ETF becomes tradable, it will then be possible for average investors to buy into bitcoin easily.

The ETF will also likely increase public awareness of bitcoin, causing more people to adopt bitcoin.

So it's set. We need that market crash to come after the Winklevoss eft comes to light.
Hurry up guys!

I would argue that public adoption would increase regardless of a market crash once the ETF starts trading.