Will transaction fees remain low?

[Maslate]

Starting last year until now, transaction fees have improved compared to the previous bullish period. Right now, fees are still cheap compared to the past, where sometimes they even reached $100 or more during a bull run. So, what changed? Will these low fees continue in the long term, or might we see another spike in fees when the price of Bitcoin surges again?

[_act_]

So, what changed?

No more Ordinals NFTs and BRC20 spamming the mempool is the reason. They made the mempool become very congested than it should be and now people have dumped the tokens.

Will these low fees continue in the long term, or might we see another spike in fees when the price of Bitcoin surges again?

When you are talking about was not the first time bitcoin mempool was congested, it can not be the last time that it will be congested but know that it will later become less congested again if it happens.

Nobody can know when the mempool will become very congested again, but if it happens, the mempool will become less congested later as usual.

[BitMaxz]

I don't think we would see the huge fees again this year. Like the above said, it is because of ordinals, NFTs, and BRC20 that makes fees surged to $100 before.
We might see high transaction fees again after the next block halving because they want to be part of the history. So I believe before, near, or after block halving, we might experience the same case again.

There's no solution yet for this issue on the Bitcoin network; that's why if you don't want to pay high fees, I always recommend consolidating your transaction outputs into a single one to avoid huge fees in the future.

[DPHOR]

Starting last year until now, transaction fees have improved compared to the previous bullish period. Right now, fees are still cheap compared to the past, where sometimes they even reached $100 or more during a bull run. So, what changed? Will these low fees continue in the long term, or might we see another spike in fees when the price of Bitcoin surges again?

Transaction fee are not usually predictable or static but when there are higher transaction in the blockchain and there are no enough miners then you would automatically see the transaction fee are getting higher because there are lesser miners, but when there are lot of miners then you would see that the fee will remain the way it's or a bit lesser (depends). Most times higher demand of transaction could triggered the fee to increase unexpectedly but if we know that there are lot of miners then there is no need to worry about the market because transaction fee would be far way more cheaper.

[PX-Z]

Starting last year until now, transaction fees have improved compared to the previous bullish period. Right now, fees are still cheap compared to the past, where sometimes they even reached $100 or more during a bull run. So, what changed? Will these low fees continue in the long term, or might we see another spike in fees when the price of Bitcoin surges again?

That's because on the previous bullrun there are organization or group of people who keep spamming the network with dust transactions. The very last is due to Ordinals.
We could experience a lower fees bull run as long as there's no thousands of spam transaction that lead to network congestion. So for your question, it's not permanent, we will soon again experience it, if it happens again.

[adaseb]

Starting last year until now, transaction fees have improved compared to the previous bullish period. Right now, fees are still cheap compared to the past, where sometimes they even reached $100 or more during a bull run. So, what changed? Will these low fees continue in the long term, or might we see another spike in fees when the price of Bitcoin surges again?

That's because on the previous bullrun there are organization or group of people who keep spamming the network with dust transactions. The very last is due to Ordinals.
We could experience a lower fees bull run as long as there's no thousands of spam transaction that lead to network congestion. So for your question, it's not permanent, we will soon again experience it, if it happens again.

Yeah I was around then. I think it was rumor that BSV was doing it. I remember paying like 500sats/btye for a transaction. And sometimes if your UTXO was small then there was no point in sending it anyways. Eventually they returned to normal.

A year later same thing happened on ETH due to dex and NFTs. Also I remember paying $50 just to send a single USDT transaction. And it was like this for a whole, a few years until second layers like Arbitrium became popular on ETH.

[logfiles]

The network was being spammed by the ordinals brigade, and they would fill up the mempool with high fee transactions, but since the madness for the NFTs has died down, the optimal fees have gone back to normal.

Of course every once in a while, except the fees to spike due to different even, but everything eventually goes back to normal after some time.

[BenCodie]

Layer2 networks have tremendously taken the load off of Bitcoin and Ethereum since the last period where fees were sky high. It's been almost 2 years since then and scalability solutions have only improved across the board. Unless a unique kind of attack spikes fees in a way that can't be mitigated, I'd say it's unlikely that fees will ever become as unbearable as they have been in some periods of the past.

[X-ray]

Starting last year until now, transaction fees have improved compared to the previous bullish period. Right now, fees are still cheap compared to the past, where sometimes they even reached $100 or more during a bull run. So, what changed? Will these low fees continue in the long term, or might we see another spike in fees when the price of Bitcoin surges again?

As others have mentioned, less spam coming from ordinals, it was so expensive back then because people are racing to mint ordinals etc and willing to increase their fee to put themselves ahead of the crowd, imagine thousands of people doing exactly that and you'd find the fee sky rocket.

Right now no such thing happening and the fee is totally bearable. This is why many people also complained with the existence of ordinals and consider it as just a nonsense spam. Such thing should've been settled on L2.

[GreatArkansas]

So, what changed?

No more Ordinals NFTs and BRC20 spamming the mempool is the reason. They made the mempool become very congested than it should be and now people have dumped the tokens.

That makes sense. The mempool was definitely more jammed when BRC20 tokens and Ordinals NFTs were everywhere.
Now that the hype has cooled off, things feel a lot smoother. I agree that fewer of those transactions help keep fees low. Hopefully, it stays that way even during the next bull run.

It just shows every hype happening, especially in the Bitcoin chain, is just temporary - now we will just worry about what's next hype will happen that will make the mempool congested.

[Churchillvv]

Starting last year until now, transaction fees have improved compared to the previous bullish period. Right now, fees are still cheap compared to the past, where sometimes they even reached $100 or more during a bull run. So, what changed? Will these low fees continue in the long term, or might we see another spike in fees when the price of Bitcoin surges again?

Anything is possible but however last time we faced such challenges was as a result of spams in the mempool which you're aware of but this time who knows what they are cooking to get something out of the bitcoin bullishness.

Of course we can't predict what happens next but I still believe we might have at least one or two occasions of fees increase may not be as high as before when ordinals attacked but the cycle might continue.

[BitGoba]

Starting last year until now, transaction fees have improved compared to the previous bullish period. Right now, fees are still cheap compared to the past, where sometimes they even reached $100 or more during a bull run. So, what changed? Will these low fees continue in the long term, or might we see another spike in fees when the price of Bitcoin surges again?

Majority of everyday monetary Bitcoin transactions has moved to the Lightning Network, where payments are instant and fees are extremely low. On-chain transactions are mainly used for larger transfers, sending BTC to cold storage, or opening and closing Lightning channels. There are also many non-monetary transactions and spam on-chain. As the exchange rate rises against fiat currencies, it attracts more people who want to own Bitcoin, make on-chain transactions, save in Bitcoin, and send BTC to their cold wallets. Every new bull run brings a wave of newcomers, so it’s likely that on-chain transactions will surge again in the bull run expected by the end of the year.

[348Judah]

Starting last year until now, transaction fees have improved compared to the previous bullish period. Right now, fees are still cheap compared to the past, where sometimes they even reached $100 or more during a bull run. So, what changed? Will these low fees continue in the long term, or might we see another spike in fees when the price of Bitcoin surges again?

Nothing changed than we have the mempool being less congested either by the bitcoin transaction volume or the ordinance taking charge to compete the block space with bitcoin transaction.

It is also important that we know that not only the ordinance that can cause the mempool congestion, the bitcoin network also could contribute base on the number of transactions or the volume of awaiting order of unconfirmed transactions in the mempool.

[Taskford]

Starting last year until now, transaction fees have improved compared to the previous bullish period. Right now, fees are still cheap compared to the past, where sometimes they even reached $100 or more during a bull run. So, what changed? Will these low fees continue in the long term, or might we see another spike in fees when the price of Bitcoin surges again?

That's because on the previous bullrun there are organization or group of people who keep spamming the network with dust transactions. The very last is due to Ordinals.
We could experience a lower fees bull run as long as there's no thousands of spam transaction that lead to network congestion. So for your question, it's not permanent, we will soon again experience it, if it happens again.

Yeah I was around then. I think it was rumor that BSV was doing it. I remember paying like 500sats/btye for a transaction. And sometimes if your UTXO was small then there was no point in sending it anyways. Eventually they returned to normal.

Their participation hit really bad on the network and BSV is benefiting on those situation happened. But to bad for them Ordinals fail and didn't do any much effect on the network now.

What good thing happen to that situation is the miners really earn good profit at that time. I didn't do any transaction when that situation happen and manage to use other altcoins to transact with other people or even on exchangers.

There's still a chance that this situation will happen again its just we don't know on when it will occur again.

[Apocollapse]

Surprisingly the fees still low, it's high likely big companies buy Bitcoin in bulk and people who have Bitcoin didn't want to sell it. It's make sense though, we know the peak of Bitcoin after supercycle are on months 10-12, now it's not yet the peak.

I think we would see the fees spike during that three months.

[hero_the_bossman]

Surprisingly the fees still low, it's high likely big companies buy Bitcoin in bulk and people who have Bitcoin didn't want to sell it. It's make sense though, we know the peak of Bitcoin after supercycle are on months 10-12, now it's not yet the peak.

I think we would see the fees spike during that three months.

Where the peak would be is the question - and we may never know exactly where the train would be halted for a bit.

I would say it would be near 150k or so, but let's look at facts in upcoming months

[Darker45]

Layer2 networks have tremendously taken the load off of Bitcoin and Ethereum since the last period where fees were sky high. It's been almost 2 years since then and scalability solutions have only improved across the board. Unless a unique kind of attack spikes fees in a way that can't be mitigated, I'd say it's unlikely that fees will ever become as unbearable as they have been in some periods of the past.

Layer-2 solutions probably play a significant role as far as the Ethereum network is concerned, but probably not that much when it comes to Bitcoin. The Lightning Network only holds a few thousands, right? As to sidechains, Liquid has also a few thousands, if I'm not mistaken.

In other words, I think they're not really the reasons why Bitcoin's network is now free from congestion. For one, it's the absence of spam transactions. Secondly, I think it's the kind of adoption Bitcoin has today. It's institutions, OTC, ETFs, IOUs, paper Bitcoin, centralized exchanges, custodial wallets, and the like that have become the ruling standard.

[Russlenat]

I think we would see the fees spike during that three months.

If the fees stay reasonable, then I think that's totally fine. Right now, the highest in the mempool is around $1, which is already very affordable. But if it goes up to $10, that would be a bit too much especially for those only transacting small amounts. Good thing fees are low at the moment, probably because the network isn't congested and there's no spamming. Hopefully, things remain stable moving forward.

[nemesis_incarnate]

I think we would see the fees spike during that three months.

If the fees stay reasonable, then I think that's totally fine. Right now, the highest in the mempool is around $1, which is already very affordable. But if it goes up to $10, that would be a bit too much especially for those only transacting small amounts. Good thing fees are low at the moment, probably because the network isn't congested and there's no spamming. Hopefully, things remain stable moving forward.

Are there talks about the runes pushing things up? I didn't hear about them for a while

[Ruttoshi]

Bitcoin transaction fee was never made to be high buy due to the spamming on the blockchain by those garbage BRC20 token, Ordinals and Runes made us to experience a high transaction fee.

Nobody knows if another shitcoin will be created on bitcoin blockchain in future, and if such is done, we will definitely see a high transaction fee again but if none is created, transaction fees will remain low.