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Author Topic: J. Lopp's Post-Quantum Migration BIP  (Read 2929 times)
kTimesG
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March 31, 2026, 05:00:46 PM
 #141

Key words to that is "Estimate" and "Projected". No mention of the fact no one has yet to actually build a QC that has even a tenth of the number of qubits and gates required.

Have you read the paper? It sounds to me, that they built a sort-of invertible EC point addition circuit, which sounds crazy. They have a ZK proof of it working.

So the advancements are not simply on the hardware side (which evolves exponentially anyway if you check the timelines) but also on the algo side. Maybe pretending that we're not there yet doesn't end well if we simply count down from 1 million to zero, in bigger and bigger decrements.

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March 31, 2026, 06:12:59 PM
Merited by Pmalek (3)
 #142

Key words to that is "Estimate" and "Projected". No mention of the fact no one has yet to actually build a QC that has even a tenth of the number of qubits and gates required.

The FUD is always way over blown. If/when a QC powerful enough is a reality, stealing Bitcoin is going to be way down the list of priorities for whoever possesses the QC power.

If it’s Google or some Government body they will not decide to start stealing Bitcoin. It’d likely be used to hack other countries classified info/documents. There would be a desire to get other countries nuke codes and stuff like that.

Bitcoin is not even a 2T marketcap, it’s a tiny market. A QC breakthrough would be huge, whoever has the power will not be rushing to do anything with Bitcoin.

 

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April 01, 2026, 06:10:35 AM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (3)
 #143

Key words to that is "Estimate" and "Projected". No mention of the fact no one has yet to actually build a QC that has even a tenth of the number of qubits and gates required.

Edit: Fact is, no one has yet to build a physical, working, QC that can do anything more than act as very limited-scope testbeds to verify how the quantum circuits actually work and what areas need improvement. There's still a long way to go before anything resembling a fully functional QC is built that can even begin to address the problems that will be thrown at it.


OK, but what did Google currently discover that they shortened their "estimated" and "projected" Quantum Timeline? It's probably a suggestion that we as a community should also start having some awareness towards the Quantum Threat, no? Ignoring the situation, because "estimated and projected" won't make it go away.

Key words to that is "Estimate" and "Projected". No mention of the fact no one has yet to actually build a QC that has even a tenth of the number of qubits and gates required.

The FUD is always way over blown. If/when a QC powerful enough is a reality, stealing Bitcoin is going to be way down the list of priorities for whoever possesses the QC power.

If it’s Google or some Government body they will not decide to start stealing Bitcoin. It’d likely be used to hack other countries classified info/documents. There would be a desire to get other countries nuke codes and stuff like that.

Bitcoin is not even a 2T marketcap, it’s a tiny market. A QC breakthrough would be huge, whoever has the power will not be rushing to do anything with Bitcoin.


I used to believe that Bitcoin should be the least of our worries if the Quantum Threat arrives, but Satoshi's wallet could be the first testbed for early Quantum Computers.

If you're a Core Developer, would you merely allow that threat not to be mitigated?

The point is awareness, which leads to a discussion, then a solution.

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LFC_Bitcoin
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April 01, 2026, 02:08:51 PM
 #144

I used to believe that Bitcoin should be the least of our worries if the Quantum Threat arrives, but Satoshi's wallet could be the first testbed for early Quantum Computers.

If you're a Core Developer, would you merely allow that threat not to be mitigated?

The point is awareness, which leads to a discussion, then a solution.

I am happy to move my coins to Quantum Resistant addresses if/when the need is required.

I actually got a bit paranoid last year (reading about QC) and moved all the remaining coins in Legacy Addresses that I HODL from back in the day.


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April 01, 2026, 04:35:54 PM
Last edit: April 01, 2026, 06:03:05 PM by Satofan44
Merited by NotFuzzyWarm (1)
 #145

Today, Google claims it will soon be possible to break in-transit (mempool) TXs in 9 minutes.
This seems quite a suspicious number because the block time is 10 minutes, it seems to me that someone manipulated the outcome of this paper in order to tailor to a result. When extremely complex stuff ends up coincidentally on favorable numbers like this, it indicates that something is fishy even if the whole thing may be valid. I would have believed it even if they said something extremely low such as 1 minute, but this number is fraudulent. Perhaps a researcher biased or bribed in order to tip the data a little bit. Happens almost daily, even in medicine but most people here wouldn't know that.  Wink

Quote
→ q-day: My confidence in q-day by 2032 has shot up significantly. IMO there's at least a 10% chance that by 2032 a quantum computer recovers a secp256k1 ECDSA private key from an exposed public key.
https://x.com/drakefjustin/status/2038847732152996108
This is nothing compared to the in-transit claim, and for previously exposed keys we do not have a solution. They may stay as they are or get merely slowed down with the hourglass proposal or something similar.

Maybe pretending that we're not there yet doesn't end well if we simply count down from 1 million to zero, in bigger and bigger decrements.
You seem to misunderstand this space entirely. Let's all pretend that we are already there. What now? Nothing. We do not know what the right solution is, there is no assured solution yet. There are many bad solutions to this, so stop believing that people don't want to do something about this because that is not accurate -- the problem lies in what exactly should be done and how. Many things are still in their maturation process.

OK, but what did Google currently discover that they shortened their "estimated" and "projected" Quantum Timeline? It's probably a suggestion that we as a community should also start having some awareness towards the Quantum Threat, no? Ignoring the situation, because "estimated and projected" won't make it go away.
Other than educating people to not resuse addresses, "community members" should not do shit about this. When "community members" start getting intensely involved in topics that go way beyond their head, we get another misinformation shitstorm like we did with OP_RETURN. Let cryptographers do their jobs, developers will implement solutions when they are available. If randoms start getting emotionally invested in individual quantum-proof signatures or other solution methods, it will just lead to useless bickering over false claims.

Assuming that there is a good candidate, deploying a new address type with quantum safe signatures is easy. The issue with old coins, reused addresses and that will remain open. Still people forget how this world works. It is not going to be some random hacker in the world that will be able to steal money using this as he can from various shitcoins and their Defi protocols. Google is not legally able to steal any of these coins so even once they succeed it will remain merely a demonstration of what can be done by an extremely well funded and state of the art actor (not by everyone, not by random small or medium entities). What do you actually think a public company is able to steal digital property from others legally, including other legal entities from the USA?  Roll Eyes

I actually got a bit paranoid last year (reading about QC) and moved all the remaining coins in Legacy Addresses that I HODL from back in the day.
Unless you are referring to P2PK addresses (and taproot but this is less of an issue for the network as a whole as of today), this did not do anything. Only unused P2PK addresses are vulnerable. When it comes to resused addresses, all types are vulnerable. Most people have never seen a P2PK address in their wallet.



There is this terrible negative side effects from technology and social media that pushes normies and average people into getting involved in every topic that exists. Sit the fuck down, know your place and don't do anything. The illusion of knowledge is the greatest danger that exists in this context.

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April 01, 2026, 05:49:22 PM
Merited by Satofan44 (1)
 #146

Unless you are referring to P2PK addresses, this did not do anything. Only unused P2PK addresses are vulnerable. When it comes to resused addresses, all types are vulnerable. Most people have never seen a P2PK address in their wallet.

What about TapRoot? Even if it's the "new and shiny format" it is vulnerable to QC because it exposes the tweaked public key, which, if broken, makes the UTXO spendable. What I did, after seeing TR listed as quantum vulnerable at rest was to promptly transfer the funds I kept in TR to a P2PKH address.

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April 01, 2026, 08:31:44 PM
 #147

A very intersting post today:




I know QR signatures were heavier, but I didn't suspect that was the scale of the problem.
Wondering if this would allow for bigger blocks to allow for the same TPS as today.

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