Bitcoin market bubble pop

[OgNasty]

I love that the Bitcoin price dropping to $115K is now considered the bubble popping. We were just at $77K a few months ago and at $17K a few years ago. I think a lot of folks need to zoom out and understand what is happening. The Dollar is falling apart and melting into a pool of tears in slow motion for the world to see.

[sunsilk]

Been hearing about this since I've entered newly to the market. Many did said that bitcoin's a bubble and when it bursts, it will never get back again.

Did it bursts? is it a bubble? these people will never stop in saying that and they'll have hard time to accept that it's growing naturally and isn't in a bubble. The house and real estate is.

That's it and it will be a sad moment for them if they will witness that day when Bitcoin reaches that price and, they'll finally say that they give up.

I am imagining that this is going to be the reaction when that time and price come.



They cannot say that again when it's proven and Bitcoin speaks for itself at that time.

[philipma1957]

It appears there are still people who have not understood what is the definition of a market bubble and also arguing that because bitcoin has reached some acceptance from the government and from traditional finance then it will not die. I am sorry, however, on a very long time horizon our society including bitcoin might not exist and it might be studied as another bubble, the other definition, similar to the South Sea bubble on 1720.

It is very headshaking that humans are very arrogant and have forgotten the realities of life. In any case, the definition of bubble I am using is a market bubble only where they form on bull markers causing prices to be unsustainable. But according to this article it might not occur this year.



Bitcoin price has long followed a familiar rhythm: every four years, a halving slashes the new supply of coins, setting off a bull run. Then, when the price gets too frothy and sentiment a pinch too euphoric, traders take profit and the price nosedives into a bear market.

That playbook is now dead, according to Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise.

“The forces that have created prior four-year cycles are weaker,” Hougan said on X on Friday. “The halving is half as important every four years, the interest rate cycle is positive for crypto, and blow-up risk has attenuated.”

For Hougan, the structural forces behind Bitcoin’s classic boom-and-bust cycles — like the halving’s impact on supply — are weakening. Meanwhile, a new macro and regulatory environment is working in Bitcoin’s favour.

Read in full https://www.dlnews.com/articles/markets/experts-explain-how-bitcoin-price-cycle-is-changing/

language matters

it will retreat a lot from the peak

I 100% believe that.

My definition is when a bubble burst it is done kaput and over with.


You are saying a bursting bubble is the down point in the 4 year cycle

btw so far if you go out ten years it is ever upward

so using a 10 year viewpoint their is no 4 year cycle.




below  from my other posting in a different section

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5551668.msg65628133#msg65628133

<snip>

the 10 year prediction model has been up up up

do not count 2009

Using July 1 numbers for each year

2010 to 2020 up 8 cents to $ 29,200
2011 to 2021 up $13.50 to $33,572
2012 to 2022 up     7.50 to $19,000
2013 to 2023 up $ 100   to $30,000

2014 to 2024 up $ 634   to $62,857       100x is the lowest gain

2015 to 2025 up $ 258   to $105,657

a ten year hodl prediction of any time from July 1 2010  was easy

huge gain.

I start with July 1 2010 as I have clear prices to Start from

but any day from block 2 a 10 year hodl means huge gain

and frankly this may remain true forever unless of course someone finds a way to crack sha-256

"every 10 year viewpoint the gains are huge."

so based on a 10 year viewpoint BTC has always been in a bull market

find me any day since day one that ten years later BTC has not whaled or bulled

[irhact]

These other companies that have followed Michael Saylor's strategy that are also beginning to buy bitcoin to hold in their treasury to cause a pump on their company's stock, what does everyone speculate on this? Will this create another overinflated bubble that will pop and cause bitcoin to dump similar to the bubble pops before?

It depends on how they're all going about buying Bitcoin, are they also buying it in accumulation stages or are they buying to pump the market with their big purchase because I think time will come when this companies will begin to make their purchase more publicly because they want to affect the market. Not everybody is going to come with a genuine mindset to the market and that's why what they're doing might become a problem later. The institutional investors are gaining lots of market shares and soon they'll be having more control than they should be having because the market still has lots of influencing from public images like companies and individuals.

[bbc.reporter]

I love that the Bitcoin price dropping to $115K is now considered the bubble popping. We were just at $77K a few months ago and at $17K a few years ago. I think a lot of folks need to zoom out and understand what is happening. The Dollar is falling apart and melting into a pool of tears in slow motion for the world to see.

Hehehee if you read my original post, there was no declaration or argument that the present price is a market bubble already. I was only asking for everyone's speculations and thoughts that because there are more companies from traditional finance that are following Michael Saylor's strategy, I only asked will this cause much hype on bitcoin and the cryptospace which will also cause a big pump creating an overinflated bubble? My other question was will this be the cause of another big dump similar to what we have witnessed before on 2021 and on 2017?

This was the original post. Everyone should read this before getting triggered hehe.



These other companies that have followed Michael Saylor's strategy that are also beginning to buy bitcoin to hold in their treasury to cause a pump on their company's stock, what does everyone speculate on this? Will this create another overinflated bubble that will pop and cause bitcoin to dump similar to the bubble pops before?

There is a hedgefund manager who has lost money from his hedgefund's investments who is presently creating a treasury company. I am very much aware that this is for an altcoin, however, this can also be created for bitcoin and the argument is similar. Will this be the next big bubble pop?

[philipma1957]

I love that the Bitcoin price dropping to $115K is now considered the bubble popping. We were just at $77K a few months ago and at $17K a few years ago. I think a lot of folks need to zoom out and understand what is happening. The Dollar is falling apart and melting into a pool of tears in slow motion for the world to see.

Hehehee if you read my original post, there was no declaration or argument that the present price is a market bubble already. I was only asking for everyone's speculations and thoughts that because there are more companies from traditional finance that are following Michael Saylor's strategy, I only asked will this cause much hype on bitcoin and the cryptospace which will also cause a big pump creating an overinflated bubble? My other question was will this be the cause of another big dump similar to what we have witnessed before on 2021 and on 2017?

This was the original post. Everyone should read this before getting triggered hehe.



These other companies that have followed Michael Saylor's strategy that are also beginning to buy bitcoin to hold in their treasury to cause a pump on their company's stock, what does everyone speculate on this? Will this create another overinflated bubble that will pop and cause bitcoin to dump similar to the bubble pops before?

There is a hedgefund manager who has lost money from his hedgefund's investments who is presently creating a treasury company. I am very much aware that this is for an altcoin, however, this can also be created for bitcoin and the argument is similar. Will this be the next big bubble pop?

Bubble is a shit term that attracts a lot of attention.

For me and many bubble means the tulip craze and once burst it never recovered.

So using bubble as a title will certainly trigger me.

My question to you is will Bitcoin beat the dow jones ten year hodl always turns profit.

The dow jones industrial index had a fifty year streak of ten year hodl always makes money.

So far Btc has a streak of 2009 to 2025 july  every day you buy tens year later a profit was made.

It is a six year win streak can we reach 50:years like the dow did.

[justinlamode]

These other companies that have followed Michael Saylor's strategy that are also beginning to buy bitcoin to hold in their treasury to cause a pump on their company's stock, what does everyone speculate on this? Will this create another overinflated bubble that will pop and cause bitcoin to dump similar to the bubble pops before?

What was the precious bubble that popped? Don't get me wrong but your post may be perceived as saying that Bitcoin is a bubble which I don't think is right. Obviously, you are saying that companies leverage on Bitcoin for the growth of their shares, if that be the case, has there been any company that ran into problem through this approach thereby justifying your use of the word bubble?

[philipma1957]

These other companies that have followed Michael Saylor's strategy that are also beginning to buy bitcoin to hold in their treasury to cause a pump on their company's stock, what does everyone speculate on this? Will this create another overinflated bubble that will pop and cause bitcoin to dump similar to the bubble pops before?

What was the precious bubble that popped? Don't get me wrong but your post may be perceived as saying that Bitcoin is a bubble which I don't think is right. Obviously, you are saying that companies leverage on Bitcoin for the growth of their shares, if that be the case, has there been any company that ran into problem through this approach thereby justifying your use of the word bubble?

well 2013 Nov peak it offloaded and took months to down way down to under 200
and  2017 Dec peak if offloaded and took months to go under 4000
and 2021 double peak it then off loaded and took a long Time to go under 16,000


the tulip bubble https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania

1 bulb may have sold for


Basket of goods allegedly exchanged for a single bulb of the Viceroy

all of the below
Item   Value


Two lasts of wheat   448ƒ
Four lasts of rye   558ƒ
Four fat oxen   480ƒ
Eight fat swine   240ƒ
Twelve fat sheep   120ƒ
Two hogsheads of wine   70ƒ
Four tuns of beer   32ƒ
Two tuns of butter   192ƒ
1,000 lbs. of cheese   120ƒ
A complete bed   100ƒ
A suit of clothes   80ƒ
A silver drinking cup   60ƒ


Total   2500ƒ

above from wiki


this is a maybe and if it did happen this price never recovered to that height


anyone comparing BTC 'bubble' to tulip bubble should have "I am a moron" tattooed all over their body

BTC is a tool used to distribute power use world wide via mining.

So what is that worth ?

Well electric power has value.

And moving it around and making sure it is nowtshunted into nothing has value.

Think water fall power
Think solar power
Think wind power
Think nuclear reactor power

all of them you do not shut down when no one needs a/c

and btc allows that excess power to be used.


what is it worth to the world well right now over 117k a btc.

Tulips never had that use so tulips never recovered in price.


Now do you want to argue BTC is over valued in terms of its true value maybe maybe not.

Do you want to say BTC has more used value than a power switch that makes money okay.

[STT]

Calling it a bubble is well over used, its slang and misattributed because the analogy does not fit.  Very common, far more maybe a decade ago was constant mentions of ponzi scheme and it has to be this or pyramid was a trigger word again its basically slang that people get stuck on.

[bbc.reporter]

I love that the Bitcoin price dropping to $115K is now considered the bubble popping. We were just at $77K a few months ago and at $17K a few years ago. I think a lot of folks need to zoom out and understand what is happening. The Dollar is falling apart and melting into a pool of tears in slow motion for the world to see.

Hehehee if you read my original post, there was no declaration or argument that the present price is a market bubble already. I was only asking for everyone's speculations and thoughts that because there are more companies from traditional finance that are following Michael Saylor's strategy, I only asked will this cause much hype on bitcoin and the cryptospace which will also cause a big pump creating an overinflated bubble? My other question was will this be the cause of another big dump similar to what we have witnessed before on 2021 and on 2017?

This was the original post. Everyone should read this before getting triggered hehe.



These other companies that have followed Michael Saylor's strategy that are also beginning to buy bitcoin to hold in their treasury to cause a pump on their company's stock, what does everyone speculate on this? Will this create another overinflated bubble that will pop and cause bitcoin to dump similar to the bubble pops before?

There is a hedgefund manager who has lost money from his hedgefund's investments who is presently creating a treasury company. I am very much aware that this is for an altcoin, however, this can also be created for bitcoin and the argument is similar. Will this be the next big bubble pop?

Bubble is a shit term that attracts a lot of attention.

For me and many bubble means the tulip craze and once burst it never recovered.

So using bubble as a title will certainly trigger me.

My question to you is will Bitcoin beat the dow jones ten year hodl always turns profit.

The dow jones industrial index had a fifty year streak of ten year hodl always makes money.

So far Btc has a streak of 2009 to 2025 july  every day you buy tens year later a profit was made.

It is a six year win streak can we reach 50:years like the dow did.

It appears that my mistake on this is not making it very much clear that I am implying a market bubble only. I never said bitcoin is worthless.

I will change the title hehehhe.

Also, the question I want to ask everyone is will these new digital asset treasuries that we are presently witnessing become the next much hyped storyline that will cause a market bubble where the people will be caught again buying during a market bubble pop?

[philipma1957]

Calling it a bubble is well over used, its slang and misattributed because the analogy does not fit.  Very common, far more maybe a decade ago was constant mentions of ponzi scheme and it has to be this or pyramid was a trigger word again its basically slang that people get stuck on.

its a trigger word. as was shown in this thread.


BTC 10 year hodl method still perfect and always up

frankly the question we all could use an answer to is:  how long does the 10 year hodl = always make profit = true?

[Perfectbaby]

These other companies that have followed Michael Saylor's strategy that are also beginning to buy bitcoin to hold in their treasury to cause a pump on their company's stock, what does everyone speculate on this? Will this create another overinflated bubble that will pop and cause bitcoin to dump similar to the bubble pops before?

There is a hedgefund manager who has lost money from his hedgefund's investments who is presently creating a treasury company. I am very much aware that this is for an altcoin, however, this can also be created for bitcoin and the argument is similar.

It seems unbelievable that you have been a member of this forum for so long. There would be a bubble if bitcoin were worthless. You think bitcoin is worthless? On the other hand you don't seem to understand how bitcoin treasury companies work.

Sincerely for decades now bitcoin is never worthless and if this comments is going directly to altcoin then that could have been a separate talk altogether than referring to bitcoin as something worthless, of course it's so shameful for a member of this forum who has spent years over here to still believe and have the fate that bitcoin is worthless. Check from historical data they would understand that bitcoin is never worthless has proven beyond every reasonable doubt about other investment when comparing ROI to others such as Gold many more.

[jaberwock]

These other companies that have followed Michael Saylor's strategy that are also beginning to buy bitcoin to hold in their treasury to cause a pump on their company's stock, what does everyone speculate on this? Will this create another overinflated bubble that will pop and cause bitcoin to dump similar to the bubble pops before?

It depends on how they're all going about buying Bitcoin, are they also buying it in accumulation stages or are they buying to pump the market with their big purchase because I think time will come when this companies will begin to make their purchase more publicly because they want to affect the market. Not everybody is going to come with a genuine mindset to the market and that's why what they're doing might become a problem later. The institutional investors are gaining lots of market shares and soon they'll be having more control than they should be having because the market still has lots of influencing from public images like companies and individuals.

I think the type of accumulation doesn't matter but it should be about the type of sell-offs. If it is in gradual process only then the it won't cause like a bubble that has been popped off but it is only if the sell-off is instant. We always see it in the headlines when a big company buys or sells but if according only on what is written above by @bbc.reporter, then market is not their priority. Their actions can still affect the market.

There is no rule on how much BTC one can own and we must not worry about them having more, I mean they surely can struggle because the more they buy, the more the price also increases. Also not all are willing to sell their BTC's to them easily.

[bbc.reporter]

Calling it a bubble is well over used, its slang and misattributed because the analogy does not fit.  Very common, far more maybe a decade ago was constant mentions of ponzi scheme and it has to be this or pyramid was a trigger word again its basically slang that people get stuck on.

its a trigger word. as was shown in this thread.


BTC 10 year hodl method still perfect and always up

frankly the question we all could use an answer to is:  how long does the 10 year hodl = always make profit = true?

I reckon another reason for people being triggered by bubble pop might be because they might have begun using much leverage on their trades and the pump has not been very much similar to the pumps on 2017 and 2021 as I have argued with @pooya87 before.

The aggregate open interest can be observed on Coinalyze. It is presently in an all time high. It can be speculated that the market is beginning to be overleveraged.

https://coinalyze.net/bitcoin/open-interest/

[₿itcoin]

These other companies that have followed Michael Saylor's strategy that are also beginning to buy bitcoin to hold in their treasury to cause a pump on their company's stock, what does everyone speculate on this? Will this create another overinflated bubble that will pop and cause bitcoin to dump similar to the bubble pops before?

What was the precious bubble that popped? Don't get me wrong but your post may be perceived as saying that Bitcoin is a bubble which I don't think is right. Obviously, you are saying that companies leverage on Bitcoin for the growth of their shares, if that be the case, has there been any company that ran into problem through this approach thereby justifying your use of the word bubble?

well 2013 Nov peak it offloaded and took months to down way down to under 200
and  2017 Dec peak if offloaded and took months to go under 4000
and 2021 double peak it then off loaded and took a long Time to go under 16,000


the tulip bubble https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania

1 bulb may have sold for


Basket of goods allegedly exchanged for a single bulb of the Viceroy

all of the below
Item   Value


Two lasts of wheat   448ƒ
Four lasts of rye   558ƒ
Four fat oxen   480ƒ
Eight fat swine   240ƒ
Twelve fat sheep   120ƒ
Two hogsheads of wine   70ƒ
Four tuns of beer   32ƒ
Two tuns of butter   192ƒ
1,000 lbs. of cheese   120ƒ
A complete bed   100ƒ
A suit of clothes   80ƒ
A silver drinking cup   60ƒ


Total   2500ƒ

above from wiki


this is a maybe and if it did happen this price never recovered to that height


anyone comparing BTC 'bubble' to tulip bubble should have "I am a moron" tattooed all over their body

BTC is a tool used to distribute power use world wide via mining.

So what is that worth ?

Well electric power has value.

And moving it around and making sure it is nowtshunted into nothing has value.

Think water fall power
Think solar power
Think wind power
Think nuclear reactor power

all of them you do not shut down when no one needs a/c

and btc allows that excess power to be used.


what is it worth to the world well right now over 117k a btc.

Tulips never had that use so tulips never recovered in price.


Now do you want to argue BTC is over valued in terms of its true value maybe maybe not.

Do you want to say BTC has more used value than a power switch that makes money okay.

Yeah, I completely reject the tulip‑mania comparison. We cant say Bitcoin a flower, it is the global value network that is driven through energy, utility and decentralization. Tulips had null utility,, in Bitcoin, there is both secured digital scarcity, carrier of settlement, and renewable grids get incentivized by devouring surplus power produced through wind, solar, and hydro plants, which would otherwise go to waste. Tulips crumbled where Bitcoin has gone through several cycles of $100 K. When people compare Bitcoin to tulip bulbs, it is easy to see that they neither understand what money is nor about power or innovation, let alone the protocol that will outlast speculative florals.

[bbc.reporter]

@₿itcoin. Agreed on rejecting the Tulip mania comparison, however, who has implied that this thread is about Tulip mania? This thread is about speculating when the present market will become over inflated and when this will begin to dump.

I was making a speculation that this might begin when many of these companies in Wall Street will follow Michael Saylor and make their companies become digital asset treasuries with a different mandate. Michael Saylor's mandate is to buy and never sell bitcoin. However, what are these other companies mandates? We cannot be quite certain if they will be something similar to Michael Saylor and Microstrategy.

There are also other digiital asset treasuries that have spread to begin buying altcoins. This Tom Lee might be the cause of the bubble pop on Ethereum.



Tom Lee reckons investors are overlooking one of the most important trends inside the crypto treasury craze: the aggressiveness with which a handful of companies are buying up Ethereum.

“There’s true scarcity in Ethereum right now,” the Wall Street strategist and chairman of BitMine Immersion Technologies said in an interview with DL News.

But it’s not just the asset — “it’s the velocity at which we’re accumulating it,” he said.

Read in full https://www.dlnews.com/articles/markets/tom-lee-bitmine-chairman-touts-ethereum-scarcity/

[milewilda]

Been hearing about this since I've entered newly to the market. Many did said that bitcoin's a bubble and when it bursts, it will never get back again.

Did it bursts? is it a bubble? these people will never stop in saying that and they'll have hard time to accept that it's growing naturally and isn't in a bubble. The house and real estate is.

That's it and it will be a sad moment for them if they will witness that day when Bitcoin reaches that price and, they'll finally say that they give up.

I am imagining that this is going to be the reaction when that time and price come.



They cannot say that again when it's proven and Bitcoin speaks for itself at that time.

I do always have the same thoughts in mind that these fellas would be keeping on saying about bubble burst or even having those words about being dead then at the time that they've been left out
then this is where they would be having those regrets and telling that bubble will burst soon and everyone would be crying. Come to think that market do have those corrections and whenever it do happens
then for sure they would be having those impressions that they were right but eventually the market do make out those recovery and breaking new all time highs then this is where they would be having in mind "here we go again". For sure there would come a time that they would be that giving up and then suddenly change hearts. 

[bbc.reporter]

This article has very much expressed the purpose on why I have created this thread and begin a discussion on when and how the next big market bubble will form and how the market bubble pop might occur.

I am very much aware that everyone will be triggered again, however, if we are being honest with ourselves, markets have always gone up to form a bubble and it had always gone down after the bubble pop. 



The last ‘traditional’ bubble cryptocurrencies experienced was in Q4 2017, characterised by double or even triple digit % days, an influx of new participants such that exchanges couldn’t keep up with demand, speculative ICOs, record volumes, new paradigms, new heights and first class flights. That was the last, mainstream, traditional retail bubble culminating 9 years after the first “trustless” peer-to-peer currency was created.

Fast forward 4 years, and crypto’s second major bubble was larger, more complex, layered in a new paradigm of algorithmic stablecoins (Luna Terra), with a sprinkling of re-hypothecation crime (FTX, Alameda). Such was the ‘innovation’ that few really understood how the largest retail Ponzi-esque collapse worked. But as in every new paradigm, participants were convinced this was a new form of financial engineering, a new form of innovation, and if you didn’t get it, no one had time to explain it to you.

Little did we know at the time, that Michael Saylor’s Microstrategy born in 2020 would be the seed that sprouted institutional-grade re-positioning into BTC after its dramatic collapse in 2022 [1]. So much so, in 2025, Saylor’s “financial alchemy” is now at the heart of marginal buyer demand in cryptocurrencies today.

Much akin to 2021, very few truly understand the mechanism behind this new paradigm of financial engineering. Although few understand, a growing number are more wary after previous experiences of what feels and smells dangerous; but how this happens, along with its secondary effects is what makes the difference between knowing something may be wrong, and capitalising on it.

What is a DAT at the base level?

Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) are pretty simple vehicles. They are traditional equity companies whose sole purpose is to purchase digital assets. New DATs simply raise money from investors, selling shares in their company, and using the proceeds to purchase Digital Assets. In some cases, they continue to sell equity, diluting existing shareholders to use the proceeds to continue purchasing Digital Assets.

I don’t see a multitude of different paths for this to play out, it seems clear to me there are only three paths, and one logical conclusion:

DATs continue to trade at premiums to mNAV, the flywheel continues, insatiable demand drives crypto higher. It is simply a new paradigm driven by financial alchemy.

DATs begin to trade at discounts, unwinding until there are forced liquidations and chapter 11’s, total destruction.

DATs begin to trade at discounts, and begin to be forced to sell underlying assets to re-purchase shares/service debt & operating costs. This unwind becomes recursive, until these DATs reduce in size creating DAT ghost companies.

Read in full https://josephayoub.substack.com/p/dats-not-going-to-last

[collecttmaster]

My definition is when a bubble burst it is done kaput and over with.

Bitcoin is not in a bubble so there is nothing to burst. If anything it is extremely undervalued for what it is. If people understood the fiat and inflation scam Bitcoin would be worth tens or even hundreds of millions. Unfortunately, probably less than 1% of the population knows anything about these things.

DATs continue to trade at premiums to mNAV, the flywheel continues, insatiable demand drives crypto higher. It is simply a new paradigm driven by financial alchemy.

DATs begin to trade at discounts, unwinding until there are forced liquidations and chapter 11’s, total destruction.

DATs begin to trade at discounts, and begin to be forced to sell underlying assets to re-purchase shares/service debt & operating costs. This unwind becomes recursive, until these DATs reduce in size creating DAT ghost companies.

There is nothing wrong with any of this, that is healthy market behavior that is called a correction. Overleveraged and non competitive entities should be regularly cleaned out, that is the only way for a market to remain healthy and continue to mature.

I was making a speculation that this might begin when many of these companies in Wall Street will follow Michael Saylor and make their companies become digital asset treasuries with a different mandate. Michael Saylor's mandate is to buy and never sell bitcoin. However, what are these other companies mandates? We cannot be quite certain if they will be something similar to Michael Saylor and Microstrategy.

This is different from individual people doing this when Bitcoin was at a lower price how? It is the same game just using different players and different scale, nothing changed. You can't even comprehend the number of people who were in Bitcoin during the right time and sold for plenty of random and mostly stupid reasons.

[Wind_FURY]

-- SNIP --

https://josephayoub.substack.com/p/dats-not-going-to-last

 

That person probably also forgot that FTX was selling paper-Bitcoin, which was actually what started last cycle's crash because they didn't have their users' Bitcoin when those users started to withdraw in panic.

Plus he didn't consider the FACT the Chad Saylor has been doing Strategy's strategy for FIVE YEARS. Chad Saylor KNOWS what he's doing, don't worry.

Everthing in that "article" may be using some facts, BUT his conclusion in what "might happen" to Strategy is based on opinion, and perhaps, bias.

FUD