Implied probability and True probability.

[Darker45]

I can't remember whether I've encountered these terms especially in betting, but it's possible I've encountered them in my Statistics class in high school and college.

Anyway, for me, it's just the difference between implied and true. True is what's real. Implied is a mere estimate. Although estimates are analyzed and computed in a such way that they're closer to what's true, it can't be accurate, such that odds suggesting as high as 95% winning probability sometimes lose.

At the end of the day, can we really measure true probability? Is there a formula for that?

[maydna]

That is just probability that can change anytime based on the match situation. So you should not just rely on probability to choose the team. You can use that as your analysis, more to be additional data so you will know which team can win. All things will come from your analysis so you can pick the right team that can win.

But there is nothing wrong with using this probability because it will depend on you. You will decide what method you use to analyze the match so you will know which team you will pick.

[Frankolala]

It's difficult to know the true probability outcome of a match, because there are a lot of factors that can affect the performance of a team in that match unknown to you. This is why, the bookmakers always win. Implied probability is for real, because a lot of people came together to make the odds even though, there are still flaws in the bookmakers predictions.

[_act_]

It's difficult to know the true probability outcome of a match, because there are a lot of factors that can affect the performance of a team in that match unknown to you. This is why, the bookmakers always win. Implied probability is for real, because a lot of people came together to make the odds even though, there are still flaws in the bookmakers predictions.

They call it true probability but the so called good people that know how to analyze like the prediction sites are not 70% accurate. The so called gamblers are losing, including me. Betting is fun, especially sport betting while also watching the matches, but I do not believe in what they are called the true probability.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

Bettors may not use the terms always but we already know it's something that is practiced every day of betting when you get to decide the chance that your selected team has to win the match for your bet to play out or lose it. An experienced player should know that their skills in making analysis will help them figure out the true probability of a game but if the bookies also has same prediction, you are going to be seeing a small odd but when you don't, you will have opposite of what they assumed.

[aylabadia05]

Based on experience so far in choosing a team for betting in the game played is not always in a winning position, I think it's more to the implied probalty. This is because the small odds that are expected to get a high chance of winning are also not necessarily true.
Relying on assistance from other parties to eventually become my choice in making bets not and I will not use because sports betting is a type of bet that is motivated by a hobby of the type of sport. Usually in football.

[Russlenat]

<<>>but I do not believe in what they are called the true probability.

You just need to understand what “true probability” means in this context. Of course, it doesn’t guarantee the outcome of the game since it’s only based on our own analysis. To put it simply, implied probability (you can check the formula I shared on the previous page) is what the odds suggest, while true probability is how you personally think the betting line or odds should actually be.

[danherbias07]

I've bumped into it but never really understood it. Plus, I am too lazy to do the calculation and see the result of the implied probability. Better just play the game, place the bets, and use your own head and experience to seek the results.

If it's professional sports, even with the probabilities calculated, the game could end up on the underdogs' side because those who play the game are still pro players who can have a good day or a bad day.

[Sandra_hakeem]

As a sports bettor, does anyone here even know what this really means?

Do you see gamblers as though they're dumb people?

I’m not gonna copy-paste the definition from Wiki since I don’t want to sound like a dictionary. I just want to have an honest discussion, do sports bettors here actually consider this when placing their bets?

I mean some do, but others don't really care. They call it the "casino shenanigans" and they don't think they should be considering any factor around it. Probability is not a casino thing IMO; infact, to some extent, they also depend on/ obey the same rule to stay in profit. We often see most options getting locked by the casinos, and the only reason for that is because they feel like the probability is high for the gamblers, as a result putting them at the risk of losing much.

For those who’ve been betting for a while, is this the first time you’ve have heard of it?

No. I knew what it was and how it affected the chance of an event happening, even before I started gambling.

[DaNNy001]

As a sports bettor, does anyone here even know what this really means? I’m not gonna copy-paste the definition from Wiki since I don’t want to sound like a dictionary. I just want to have an honest discussion, do sports bettors here actually consider this when placing their bets?

For those who’ve been betting for a while, is this the first time you’ve heard of it? Or have you come across it before but didn’t fully understand it, so you never really factored it into your bets?

This is my first time of hearing about those terms as it relates to sports betting and it would have been better you add the definitions from wherever you saw them and add link to source, this will make the discussion better for people like us who are just getting to know.about those words. It's possible they are what I do or incorporate in my betting without knowing their technical name.

This is my first time hearing this as well, I didn't know terms like this exists in sports betting...it seems betting is broad after all because I always see words see terms that I'm not familiar with and learn new things from the discussion board.. I'm reading people's explanations on this but I'm yet to fully comprehend...like you said it's better he posts the source where he got the words from so others can do research

[yahoo62278]

I have heard of implied odds when it comes to poker and making a decision on whether to call a bet or not, but never heard it referred to as implied probability. Seems like it's pretty much the same thing though. If you hit your draw or bet you'll make x amount of money.

[_act_]

I have heard of implied odds when it comes to poker and making a decision on whether to call a bet or not, but never heard it referred to as implied probability. Seems like it's pretty much the same thing though. If you hit your draw or bet you'll make x amount of money.

Yes, this is the meaning of implied probability. I have not heard of total probability before in gambling but I have heard and read about implied probability before and it is related to how gamblers can make some calculations and analyses to determine if the odd of a bet is worth it or not so that the gambler will determine to either go for the bet or not.

[KTChampions]

As a sports bettor, does anyone here even know what this really means? I’m not gonna copy-paste the definition from Wiki since I don’t want to sound like a dictionary. I just want to have an honest discussion, do sports bettors here actually consider this when placing their bets?

For those who’ve been betting for a while, is this the first time you’ve heard of it? Or have you come across it before but didn’t fully understand it, so you never really factored it into your bets?

It would be very strange to place bets and not understand the difference. The essence of betting is precisely this - to find an outcome that the bookmaker quotes incorrectly, i.e. the implied probability is very different from the true one. The problem with betting is that every event is unique so you can't know what the true odds were even after the event has happened. So both you and the bookmaker are competing using implied probability.

[DPHOR]

A gambler should be that technical enough to understand the games they are playing and of course statistics also help to increase the chances of winning for the said gambler, when a gambler goes through those matches back history you would know that statistic or historical data actually means a lots, thus it depends on the type of game they are gambling and for sports betting they wouldn't be much concerned about how to go through statistics and if that said gambler is that smart enough or and are watching football frequently should be able to understand the team to win or lose. We can't be sure when we place such bet but at least they have close range of winning the game but such person wouldn't be that dip staking with higher amount and starts hoping to win something huge without them knowing that things doesn't work as planned.

[|MINER|]

I have never actually tested this before, so I don't have a deep knowledge about it. However, I can say that everything in gambling depends on luck and no matter how we divide the odds, there is no guarantee that we will always win when we apply them to gambling.
And when we discuss these issues, I think we are taking gambling too seriously, which is no longer for the purpose of entertainment, but rather it is a kind of hidden investment roleplay. Which of course I don't think would be a wise thing to do.

[Churchillvv]

What i think it means in my opinion is, the possibility of winning in implied is your own discretion of the game while true probability is, what others including your thinks will be the outcome in a normal circumstance l, the implied has to do with once personal perception of a game in gambling because he or she believes they have added advantage in terms of knowledge to the game while true probability is what the out come is likely to be with or without your personal opinion.

[kotajikikox]

As a sports bettor, does anyone here even know what this really means? I’m not gonna copy-paste the definition from Wiki since I don’t want to sound like a dictionary. I just want to have an honest discussion, do sports bettors here actually consider this when placing their bets?

For those who’ve been betting for a while, is this the first time you’ve heard of it? Or have you come across it before but didn’t fully understand it, so you never really factored it into your bets?

Honestly I don’t think a lot of gamblers use this nor they even know what it is. They just probably know one kind of probability and that is based on the odds. That would what we call implied probability since it’s implied by the odds considering gamblers, chances, and the actual profit.

While true probability suggests the real chances based on different kinds of analysis.

[Pi-network314159]

As a sports bettor, does anyone here even know what this really means? I’m not gonna copy-paste the definition from Wiki since I don’t want to sound like a dictionary. I just want to have an honest discussion, do sports bettors here actually consider this when placing their bets?

Well j don't know what and how you define a sport bettor, but sport bettor definition is not far from the one which everyonw is familiar with, which is the betting of sport games by predicting the possible outcome of such game. Sport bet involve the prediction of match using the previous analysis and past results to predict the possible outcome in the next games. I don't know if this resonate with your idea of sport betting, but this is what I am awear of to be sport betting.

[Russlenat]

What i think it means in my opinion is, the possibility of winning in implied is your own discretion of the game while true probability is, what others including your thinks will be the outcome in a normal circumstance l, the implied has to do with once personal perception of a game in gambling because he or she believes they have added advantage in terms of knowledge to the game while true probability is what the out come is likely to be with or without your personal opinion.

There’s what we call an implied probability calculator that you can use to find the actual win percentage based on the odds, it’s not just guessing—it’s calculated using real figures.

You can try this site: https://www.gamingtoday.com/tools/implied-probability/ – just input the American odds there to see the percentage.

For those who aren’t familiar with American odds, you can first convert them using this site: https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html (this site also has its own implied probability calculator).

[viljy]

Initially, the odds are calculated by the bookmaker based on the true probability. Then, depending on the bettors' betting amounts, the bookmaker moves the line and the odds begin to change. And we see the implied probability already. That is, in essence, this probability that reflects the mood of the crowd. By the way, on Polymarket we always see just the same implied probability. The most interesting thing is that it is not easy for an ordinary bettor to calculate the true probability. He can only do it approximately and semi-intuitively. Therefore, in most cases, when betting, we look at the bookmaker's odds, which means that we are more or less influenced by the mood of the crowd (for or against).