Implied probability and True probability.

[Ziskinberg]

As a sports bettor, does anyone here even know what this really means? I’m not gonna copy-paste the definition from Wiki since I don’t want to sound like a dictionary. I just want to have an honest discussion, do sports bettors here actually consider this when placing their bets?

For those who’ve been betting for a while, is this the first time you’ve heard of it? Or have you come across it before but didn’t fully understand it, so you never really factored it into your bets?

[mcdouglasx]

I have never relied on statistics from any site to bet on sports, I simply analyze the matches in detail, their last encounters, players who will not participate, and based on that analysis I make the bets, the only case in which I look at the statistics of betting sites is when there is no other option, such as betting on the number of points scored, that is, I draw my own conclusions and if there is a bias I attribute it to myself, so I consider my choice "the true probability" since it is not biased by the market.

[blomen]

for those who don't understand or haven't heard of it before, let me explain it in my own words:

1. implied probability:
this is the probability derived from the betting odds. i.e. it shows how likely an outcome is to happen according to the odds given by a betting site. “1/odd” gives us this result.

for example, if a bet has an odd of 2.00, the implicit probability of this event at 1/2 is 50%.

2. true probability:

this is the probability that an event will actually happen. for example, if you roll a die at random, the probability of getting a 4 is 1/6.


why is all this important?

because if you are going to take the risk of placing a bet, it makes sense that the true probability is higher than the implied probability. so it is worth taking that risk to make money.

[Moreno233]

As a sports bettor, does anyone here even know what this really means? I’m not gonna copy-paste the definition from Wiki since I don’t want to sound like a dictionary. I just want to have an honest discussion, do sports bettors here actually consider this when placing their bets?

For those who’ve been betting for a while, is this the first time you’ve heard of it? Or have you come across it before but didn’t fully understand it, so you never really factored it into your bets?

This is my first time of hearing about those terms as it relates to sports betting and it would have been better you add the definitions from wherever you saw them and add link to source, this will make the discussion better for people like us who are just getting to know.about those words. It's possible they are what I do or incorporate in my betting without knowing their technical name.

[Charles-Tim]

Can you know the true probability that the team you selected would win? I still think that sport betting is about implied probabilities. Also a match that you think might end as won for a team might end as draw or loss. Another thing is that if you know the true probability of a match, let us assume you won but what if the odd is not more than 1.1. The betting site still always have edge with how they set their odds.

[Agbamoni]

This is my first time of hearing about those terms as it relates to sports betting and it would have been better you add the definitions from wherever you saw them and add link to source, this will make the discussion better for people like us who are just getting to know.about those words. It's possible they are what I do or incorporate in my betting without knowing their technical name.

The terminology sound complex but its what an everyday sport bettor use to make decision when choosing odds. The implied probability has to do with the odds giving by the bookmakers, most people believe that by mere looking at the odds set by the bookmaker you will know the outcome of the game. But as for me, I prefer true probability. Considering statistics including head2head, past event and current form is what I priorities when choosing my odds on any game. Eventually, none of the probabilities guarantees a win.

[freedomgo]

Can you know the true probability that the team you selected would win? I still think that sport betting is about implied probabilities. Also a match that you think might end as won for a team might end as draw or loss. Another thing is that if you know the true probability of a match, let us assume you won but what if the odd is not more than 1.1. The betting site still always have edge with how they set their odds.

It’s our job as bettors to figure out the true probability, which is why we do our own research. Bookmakers aren’t always perfect, some betting lines can be overvalued or undervalued. If we really take this seriously, we shouldn’t just bet on every game available. We need to be selective and only place bets where the true probability is significantly different from the implied probability, that’s where value betting comes in.

[Odohu]

I understand that sports betting and gambling in general is game of probability be it implied or actual probability which should be after the outcome have been decided, I don't know what we should do with such information. Is there anyway such information can help a gambler make better decision that will improve his probability of winning?

[EluguHcman]

I have not come across this term in gambling but if I must say, the "implied probability" is the state where a better have to source and applies their betting strategies while it may be uncertainty to bring success.

"True probability" might mean the destination that proves the uncertainty of gambling which means.... Nomatter the strategy and confidence of bettors as their strategies may be implied, winning will always be relied on luck.

My guess though!

[Charles-Tim]

It’s our job as bettors to figure out the true probability, which is why we do our own research. Bookmakers aren’t always perfect, some betting lines can be overvalued or undervalued.

Has this happened to you before. You will think the bookmakers are not perfect, went for an opportunity, think the team will win but the team lost. Has it happened to you before? It has happened to me before.

I was trying to draw out the true probability but I lost.

Although, I have won many 2 odds before which are single matches

But yet in total, I am in loss.

I do not believe in true probability in sport betting.

[Zigabel]

Honestly this is the first time in gambling I'm coming across such bit I will try to make an attempt at saying Iwhat I think it is, going by a literal interpretation,  an implied probability could be for someone who dis something or place a bet such that their pick may not sound directly with what we may be familiar with but their intentions

But for the true probability,  it could be one that it comes with obvious possibilities due to their history and records about their performance much before that time.

[Russlenat]

Honestly this is the first time in gambling I'm coming across such bit I will try to make an attempt at saying Iwhat I think it is, going by a literal interpretation,  an implied probability could be for someone who dis something or place a bet such that their pick may not sound directly with what we may be familiar with but their intentions

But for the true probability,  it could be one that it comes with obvious possibilities due to their history and records about their performance much before that time.

Implied probability has a simple calculation, and it’s based on the betting odds.

For example, if you see odds of 1.90, the formula would be:

1 ÷ 1.90 × 100% = 52.63%

That means your chance of winning (according to the odds) is 52.63%. But when you win, you only get 90% extra on your bet since the odds are 1.90.. meaning you’re paying the 10% juice.

So to break even in the long run, you’d need to maintain at least a 52.63% win rate, assuming you manage your bankroll properly.

In short, it’s not really a 50-50 game,  you need around 53% wins to actually profit. (Now, can you consistently do that?)

[Botnake]

I do not believe in true probability in sport betting.

It really comes down to personal judgment because it’s about how you see the line being offered. For example, if you see odds at 2.00 but you believe the true probability should be 1.90, of course, you’d take it since it’s higher value. But you’ll only know if you’re right or wrong after the game, once the result is in.

So, there’s still a guessing element, but at least we’re not betting blindly, we’re using data and analysis to make smarter decisions.

Isn’t that what makes sports betting interesting in the first place?

[Davidvictorson]

For those who’ve been betting for a while, is this the first time you’ve heard of it? Or have you come across it before but didn’t fully understand it, so you never really factored it into your bets?

I have been a sports bettor for long but I have been inconsistent with sports betting although not gambling. The terms, I haven't come across them specifically and directly. I may have known them under a different name which I think I would have even used several times. And no, I don't factor them specifically in my bets.

[AbuBhakar]

As a sports bettor, does anyone here even know what this really means? I’m not gonna copy-paste the definition from Wiki since I don’t want to sound like a dictionary. I just want to have an honest discussion, do sports bettors here actually consider this when placing their bets?

For those who’ve been betting for a while, is this the first time you’ve heard of it? Or have you come across it before but didn’t fully understand it, so you never really factored it into your bets?

Actually, both probability just varies depending on the one giving an analysis on a certain match. Implied probability is simply by checking on the odds given by the sportsbook while the other one is your own take on the game.

I always consider true probability when placing bet on sportsbook since that’s the essence of having fun on this type of game that based on analysis skills.

Relying solely on implied probability is just like playing based on the odds. This way, you will only bet on low odds and follow bookie odds setup on your bet.

[GreatArkansas]

For sports, I really don't rely on probability when I do sports betting because sometimes I bet on a sports team that I support (sometimes even they don't have a chance to win  , not good)
But sometimes, especially if the odds is fair and almost the same, I just bet randomly and that's the time I can apply and trust probability.

[stadus]

For those who’ve been betting for a while, is this the first time you’ve heard of it? Or have you come across it before but didn’t fully understand it, so you never really factored it into your bets?

I have been a sports bettor for long but I have been inconsistent with sports betting although not gambling. The terms, I haven't come across them specifically and directly. I may have known them under a different name which I think I would have even used several times. And no, I don't factor them specifically in my bets.

Usually, the ones who do this are professional sports bettors or those trying to go pro, which is why they dig deeper to improve their knowledge. Aside from checking the true probability, there’s also a term called “line shopping,” where bettors keep accounts on different sportsbooks to compare lines and take the best possible odds.

Sometimes, this even opens up opportunities for arbitrage, risk-free bets where you can guarantee a profit no matter the outcome.

[terrific]

For those who’ve been betting for a while, is this the first time you’ve heard of it? Or have you come across it before but didn’t fully understand it, so you never really factored it into your bets?

First time to hear that there are two classifications of probability. But the actual word of probability, I have an idea of it already.
So, I haven't come across the two of them and I have no idea until you have brought it up here. I don't rely on these two probabilities.
Because if I bet, then I bet and I only watch on the odds that are shown in the bookies and let alone the results whichever it comes out.
I don't think that most of us are considered these two when we bet. It's like a win or lose and a 50/50 chance of winning at most times.
It's too conservative if someone does that to be honest and looks at both of it every time they bet.

[JiiBs]

I thought you were to cop-paste a definition from Wikipedia but somehow skipped that! Really wanted to get the direction you were following aside from the topic sentence. I take it to be implied and true probability then.

Implied probability: I’ll put it as hypothesis calculated by book markers on how likely an event would occur.

True possibility: Would refer to those possible risk, the likely effects that could happen in the events of a failed attempt, be it predictions or some test.

If we are to bring this into betting:
You can’t predict a coach being sent off with a red card (implied probability)
Predicting a defender getting to score is (true probability) but highly probable.

[freedomgo]

It’s our job as bettors to figure out the true probability, which is why we do our own research. Bookmakers aren’t always perfect, some betting lines can be overvalued or undervalued.

Has this happened to you before. You will think the bookmakers are not perfect, went for an opportunity, think the team will win but the team lost. Has it happened to you before? It has happened to me before.

Yes, many times...

I was trying to draw out the true probability but I lost.

Although, I have won many 2 odds before which are single matches

But yet in total, I am in loss.

I do not believe in true probability in sport betting.

I noticed this in the recently concluded PBA finals. One team was really undermanned with several injured players, so they should’ve been a heavy underdog. But throughout the series, I saw some lines making that undermanned team only a slight underdog. it felt like the bookies were trying to lure people into betting on them, making us think they’d bounce back after a loss.

Since I believed the true probability showed a bigger spread, I took the low spread bet and won. That’s just one example I can remember. But honestly, this doesn’t guarantee I’ll always be right, hard to admit, but I’m not profitable yet.