Is it luck or just an hidden strategy?

[Olamidetechie]

With $10, someone can build their portfolio to a good amount, and with $2k, someone can destroy their portfolio with any little mistake in a trade. The real question I've been wanting to ask is how someone can fall into the first category. I've seen numerous friends make good profits from onchain projects with little money. For clarification, I'll surely share some of their profit details on new projects like $BNKR, $CLIPPY, $ZYRA, and many others that I can't count. Are they just lucky, or is it about the exchanges listing solid projects?

[markm]

A simple strategy that increases your "sphere of opportunity", in other words your likelihood of actually benefiting from lucky events.

For example look at Diamond DMD last 24 hours https://www.bitmart.com/trade/en-US?layout=pro&theme=dark&symbol=DMD_BTC

In the DMD telegram channel t.me/DMDcoin I explained how I failed by having failed to have my downwards column of buy offers in place when the dump happened and how thus I was out of the game unless price went back up to where I had been placing my sell offers column and had only sold a little thus hadn't started very far downward with my buy offers column when the dump happened and consumed all my buy offers and fell far far off the bottom of my column of buy offers thus the dump did not provide me with replenishment all the way down so I would be out of the game until price managed to start consuming my sell offers again.

Then I slept, and now having woken I found yay already price did go back up far enough to consume nine of my sell 100 DMD ascending sell offers thus now I have been able to build my buy offers column a decent way downward.

But still not far enough downward that I would have gotten sold to all the way down in that lightning dump-and-recover nor will if it happens again right now to dump that deep.

This time like last time I did have a little bit of bitcoin left loose there, basically waiting to have enough for a full offer to buy 100 DMD, so like last time if such a dump happens again I will be able to buy a little bit if it is still low when I notice and react, but having offers already in place BEFORE something happens is IMPORTANT.

When that lightning dump happened I was away from keyboard for a few TV-show episodes worth of time and already by time I was back at keyboard the price had recovered back up to 1440 satoshis which was as cheap as I was in time to use my loose bitcoin to buy up 24 or so DMD; had I instead put that loose bitcoin into a "just in case" buy offer that had been far down yet by sheer luck not so far down that the dump didn't quite reach it, I could have gotten more than just 24 DMD for it.

So the thing with the "build columns of offers upward and downward" strategy is you really really so very very much do want to make as darn sure as possible that price never climbs up far above your column of sell offers and never falls far below your column of buy offers.

On the low side of course the exchange provides a minimum price you are allowed to offer, such as one satoshi in bitcoin's case, so your downwards column has a built in limit/target for how low it needs to go to be absolutely sure price can never fall far below it. (Though witness FreiExchange having to move BTC/DVC over to FreiXlite as LTC/DVC to realise that supposed limit is somewhat cosmetic.)

So, starting small, you get to choose just how lucky a lucky event you are in place ready to benefit from.

Let us assume that your $10 is in the form of bitcoin; in any pair I assume you mean the buy-side, the side you buy in from when coming ultimately from fiat and the side you cash out toward fiat when taking profit on the fiat-facing or fiat-leaning side.

In pairs where both sides are decent buy-side coins, like the BTC/XLM pair, well nice thing about Stellar is you get to display the order-books either way around, both side are both a sell side and a buy side, all buys are sells to someone afterall and all sells buys by someone.

So you can hang back with your $10 until you see a lightning dump and maybe miss most of it like I did (notice the DMD dump seems to have gone down to 580 or 480 or somesuch satoshis; by being away from keyboard without having placed a "just in case" buy offer far downward I missed most of that, it was already back up to 1440 by the time I got back from watching a few TV-show episodes).

Or you can pick a just in case spot to place a lowball offer just in case a dump happens while you are away from keyboard.

Or maybe you can place ten offers descending downward offering to buy a buck or less worth (with my approach of making each offer the same amount of the sell side, the DMD in this case, ten "equal" offers would mean if highest offer is offering to spend one buck the lower ones would be less and less bucks each time).

The sphere of availability phrase comes from Ophiel's art and practice of gaining material things through creative visualisation, not sure if Dale Carnegie's or Norman Vincent Peale's power of positive thinking also mentions some similar idea, but it is basically the idea of increasing the sphere of possible events that some lucky event could appear in.

Like if the lucky event you hope for is inheriting a fortune from some relative, increasing your number of relatives increases your "sphere of availability" thus increasing the chance that particular category of luck could benefit you.

Once you get your column of buy offers far far down, in this latest DMD case that would have meant way down below 580 satoshis, and far far up, you decrease the chance that price is ever going to exit the range covered by your columns of offers thus lower the chance that some lucky event whether a lucky dump or a lucky skyrocket, will leave you "out in the cold" without having just moments ago having either sold some at darn near the highest the skyrocket reached or bought some at darn near the lowest the dump ever went.

So choose whether to spread your $10 out to catch more possibilities spreading it thinner or put it all into one hope of one lucky event, but as your capital grows you can spread a wider net aka build taller sell columns and deeper buy columns...


-MarkM-

[JeromeTash]

When it comes to those meme coins, if you are an honest trader like I have been, I would say it's mostly luck (More like gambling) and to have higher chances, make sure the major altcoins are trending like right now when ETH is making headlines. Very soon, the likes of Solana will follow suit, and that will be a very good time to gamble with the shitcoins.

In the recent campaign, I have managed to turn the invested funds just around 10 times and I stopped because I was being too cautious 
In the past, I managed to go buy 40x the initial capital. I must admit that at that time, I risked and didn't really care about what I put in there. I know this no where close to what you are talking about but just trying to show you how it's just a game of chance

Other times, people are just insider traders. They buy right before the price explodes.

[cabron]

Sometimes its about you getting into a coin that didn't died after a long bear market. If it kept surviving, chances are it will make a big move up when the bull season comes. All you need however is to be very patient and has just to keep on waiting. Meanwhile you just forget the small investment for awhile.

The cycle is still very alive although some of us already believe it doesn't exist anymore. Strategy on memecoin is to just be buying it if there is a big community behind, I see some memecoins are also climbing up.

[markm]

Sometimes its about you getting into a coin that didn't died after a long bear market. If it kept surviving, chances are it will make a big move up when the bull season comes. All you need however is to be very patient and has just to keep on waiting. Meanwhile you just forget the small investment for awhile.

Long term even better might be to help keep it alive through bear market after bear market after bear market.

A stubborn core of makers-not-takers that sticks with it through bear and bull and sets right back up on another venue when its last remaining exchange pulls its "oops we got hacked" exit-strategy.

Three or four times already over the last more than a decade (since 2011 I think?) we have gotten IXCoin and I0Coin up to a dollar or so per coin by the time the venue did whatever exit strategy running off with all the coins or simply de-listing us due to not having the patience to wait through periods of "doldrums" and have moved on to another venue starting from scratch again at the lowest price the new venue supported.

This time not only are we hoping the current CEX venue, FreiXchange, has been around long enough it might not just take both the buy side and the sell side asset and fly by night but we are also set up on the HORIZON and Stellar platforms where our buy-side assets (HZ on HORIZON, XLM on Stellar) are native to the platform thus stay in our own non-custodial wallets even while deployed as buy offers.

There are other coins we work with but those two are the classic ancient ones we have proven the strategy with over and over again on CEXs coming out far far ahead despite the fly by night nature of CEXs.


-MarkM-

[BlockchainWizard]

Honestly, it’s probably a mix of both – a bit of luck and being in the right place at the right time.
With small amounts like $10, people can take higher risks without worrying too much about losing it, so they jump into new projects early. If one of them moons, the percentage gains look huge.

The tricky part is that for every $BNKR or $CLIPPY that takes off, there are dozens that go nowhere or rug. The friends you’re mentioning might just have hit a few good ones, but that doesn’t mean the same strategy will keep working forever.

Exchanges listing solid projects definitely helps, but by the time most people see it on a major exchange, the early gains are often already gone. The real skill (or luck) is spotting those gems before the crowd does – and that’s way easier said than done.

[passwordnow]

Honestly, it’s probably a mix of both – a bit of luck and being in the right place at the right time.

I agree, with strategies and a stroke of luck makes a good combination. While the exchange listing "good" projects, this is subjective and depending on how we look at them. They're only good if we make some profits on it but someone who's enthusiastic about it is a different thing and short profits won't be an important matter to that person. I think that many think about saying that listing such "solid" project is overrated. If you have come early to that coin and you're able to still make some profit while the volume is high, that's on you.

[TastyChillySauce00]

Depends, if the onchain dex built in to the exchange have some degree of project review then maybe it influences your trade.
If it just list the coin that's in dex then maybe you're lucky.

I've never used bitget onchain but from my experience with binance alpha, it's just full of dump, maybe because they don't list early alpha like memes and just list some defi projects which usually going down at TGE.

[Frankolala]

Buying meme coins and making good profits out of it is luck and not by any strategy because you don't know the right coin that will survive in the long run and give you profits. What I do is that, whenever, I see little profits, I sell instantly without thinking of bigger profits in the future because I have learned a hard lesson from holding meme coins for long. The coin dump and lost almost 99% of its value.

[asriloni]

With $10, someone can build their portfolio to a good amount, and with $2k, someone can destroy their portfolio with any little mistake in a trade. The real question I've been wanting to ask is how someone can fall into the first category. I've seen numerous friends make good profits from onchain projects with little money. For clarification, I'll surely share some of their profit details on new projects like $BNKR, $CLIPPY, $ZYRA, and many others that I can't count. Are they just lucky, or is it about the exchanges listing solid projects?

As long as some who have enough knowledge about how to trade. He can also place limit in the correct support combined with huge leverage ie.500x or 1000x. I'm sure that guy will able to made a lot of money from his small money. The problem is that you would be rarely seeing someone like this.

As for investing in the on chain project, that's obvious those pictures you mentioned above were meme token. Those who got decent profit from investing in those memes are betting their money on it. A meme token can made 100000000000% gain in a night, and that's it.

[cryptotact11]

It is almost exclusively luck, don't mistake gambling in the shitcoin casino for skill. For every winner there are thousands and thousands of losers. Just because someone happened to be the winner that does not mean they knew what they were doing. They just happened to be that one winner by chance, it could have been anyone. It is usually this confusion of skill and luck that leads to massive losses later down the road.

[Akbarkoe]

With $10, someone can build their portfolio to a good amount, and with $2k, someone can destroy their portfolio with any little mistake in a trade. The real question I've been wanting to ask is how someone can fall into the first category. I've seen numerous friends make good profits from onchain projects with little money. For clarification, I'll surely share some of their profit details on new projects like $BNKR, $CLIPPY, $ZYRA, and many others that I can't count. Are they just lucky, or is it about the exchanges listing solid projects?

You need to see it on-chain, look at the trader's smart contract, see how many coins they're buying and their strategy. On-chain trading, especially with memecoins or small-cap coins that are only available on Dex, is very difficult, even more so, to capture potential or find alpha that can drive price increases.

See how many of the coins they buy become worthless. Some try their luck with coins they choose based on their analysis. If they have $100, they'll split it into 10 coins, if the target potential is thousands of percent, and hope someone makes history with this method. This kind of capital distribution strategy isn't easy, but it's possible to implement and generate profits. However, there's still no guarantee. It's like relying on luck to see your chosen coin enter a major exchange after you buy it.

[Josefjix]

With $10, someone can build their portfolio to a good amount, and with $2k, someone can destroy their portfolio with any little mistake in a trade. The real question I've been wanting to ask is how someone can fall into the first category. I've seen numerous friends make good profits from onchain projects with little money. For clarification, I'll surely share some of their profit details on new projects like $BNKR, $CLIPPY, $ZYRA, and many others that I can't count. Are they just lucky, or is it about the exchanges listing solid projects?

Your friends that profits this amount are basically buying early on a project that got listed on the first exchange for example Bitget before expanding it's listing at high price on other exchange. To benefit from this, you have to target a coin to be listed on Bitget first and purchase it directly from there, leave it for 48 hours and see the results thereafter.

Be sure to take profit within that timeframe and don't ever view it as a long term investments, you can consider it long term only when you've sold it, waits for it another periodic cycle after heavy dump, buy back for long term.

[markm]

 as a long term investments, you can consider it long term only when you've sold it, waits for it another periodic cycle after heavy dump, buy back for long term.

That is it seems to me one of the big differences between gambling and investing.

If you truly are trying to invest, rather than merely gamble, try to think in terms of yourself being one of those other people whose efforts folk who buy "securities" are relying upon, according to the "Howey test", to increase the value of what they purchase.

Of course if what you are investing in is not, supposedly, a "security" according to the "Howey test" it is all the more important to think in terms of your own determination to see that the thing does actually go up in value being what is going to turn the thing some day into something secure, because you are going to be among those securing it.

Another thought experiment that can be very useful is to think of being a retail coin-dealer at a flea market or wherever, you are thinking of entering the coin business, you want to be a reputable dealer, so think in terms of "money back if not satisfied (minus a small re-stocking fee of course)" by placing buy offers sufficient to buy back all that you sold, minus of course a small "re-stocking fee" known as the "spread"...


-MarkM-

[pawanjain]

I would say both. No matter how good your strategy is, if you don't have some amount of luck then you will lose the money.
Same way, if luck is on your side but you just used a pretty bad strategy then you will end up losing money.
I believe the luck factor is more here because to constantly make profits over the long term we need to be lucky and really good at what we do.

[markm]

Constantly making profits might not be realistic depending on what you think of as profits.

Making profits in the sense of larger quantities of inventory is very simple, but if for example both sides of whatever pair you are in go down, such as for example in a USD/BTC pair both USD and BTC going down (and we know USD, being a fiat, is of course pretty much constantly going down, and definitely over the long term for sure) you can appear down in terms of actual value your inventory amounts to, but as long as your quantities of inventory keep climbing you at least can hold on to some extent to some value even through such bad times.

I avoid using fiats in my pairs, preferring things that are not by-design intended deliberately to lose value...


-MarkM-

[0verseer]

If somehow you got lucky by invested in that project before it hit the market or "being pioneer" then I think it was more than luck. Thousand projects around today, only few survive or at least being listed on exchange, has a value. Put your money on any of them randomly like betting, replied on pure luck will not make it. Oh, I were the same, so sure on some project many years ago, I thought it'll be the next big thing but majority of them failed short. Maybe it was both luck and keen eye on what really the next big thing to trigger it to happened, that "luck".

[Iamcrypticguy]

With $10, someone can build their portfolio to a good amount, and with $2k, someone can destroy their portfolio with any little mistake in a trade. The real question I've been wanting to ask is how someone can fall into the first category. I've seen numerous friends make good profits from onchain projects with little money. For clarification, I'll surely share some of their profit details on new projects like $BNKR, $CLIPPY, $ZYRA, and many others that I can't count. Are they just lucky, or is it about the exchanges listing solid projects?

Your friends that profits this amount are basically buying early on a project that got listed on the first exchange for example Bitget before expanding it's listing at high price on other exchange. To benefit from this, you have to target a coin to be listed on Bitget first and purchase it directly from there, leave it for 48 hours and see the results thereafter.

Be sure to take profit within that timeframe and don't ever view it as a long term investments, you can consider it long term only when you've sold it, waits for it another periodic cycle after heavy dump, buy back for long term.

You've nailed it and most people underestimate this strategy.. I use often times when I get the opportunity and it works 85% of the time imo.. I even shared a thread on this.. what I do is is sell 70% and hold 30% in case it booms. That way I'm still in the game and yes Bitget has a knack for listing quality tokens always earlier then others..

[gunhell16]

That's how it is with meme coins. When you see a new listing on Bitget, and even if you don't know what it is, you take a gamble, and then you happen to time it right and it suddenly goes up, that means you got lucky with meme coins.

So, I could say you got lucky. Or, it could be like gambling, where they entice you with a small win so that you'll hold even more of that specific meme coin.
So, what I said could be both, or it could be that only one of them is true.

[Bigshark77]

Depends, if the onchain dex built in to the exchange have some degree of project review then maybe it influences your trade.
If it just list the coin that's in dex then maybe you're lucky.

I've never used bitget onchain but from my experience with binance alpha, it's just full of dump, maybe because they don't list early alpha like memes and just list some defi projects which usually going down at TGE.

You are actually right in some part of this because i once experience buying overhype project on Binance Alpha thinking i will be able to get 10x out of it, i got a shocker at the end of the day, lot it because the project has already been listed on the likes of Bitget Onchain where other users have been able to enter early. My own will be that every users should always DYOR and not allow overhype to push u.