Trump and the pressing rate cut

[DeathAngel]

By all accounts it looks like Powell will finally buckle & lower by 25bps in September. It’s probably good risk risk assets but not necessarily good medium term for the economy as rates are usually only lowered when something is breaking. Rate cutting cycles are usually a result of problems but take advantage, Bitcoin & Altcoins should pump soon.

[fillippone]

Two Fed’s board members, Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman voted against keeping the interest rate steady in the last meeting. Which shows that they are on Trump's side. With the unexpected resignation of a member Adriana Kugler, Trump will appoint his loyalist thereby controlling almost half of Fed’s board membership. With one more member on his side, he would assume full control of an important board that is established to be independent.

Having the board of the Central Bank, an institution deemed to be independent, targeting its own mandate, without intrusion from fiscal authorities, is of paramount importance when looking at the long-term sustainability of the US economy, through the sustainability of its debt.
If Trump sabotages this, it will be very difficult to revert and offset the negative effect.
Bad for the USD, good for bitcoin.

There is not a single thing or institution that is independent anymore, everything is political and biased. Wake up, you are living in a fantasy that does not exist anymore for decades.

I know, Trump is the last episode of this. I also remember when Powell cut rates 50 basis points last September, just to boost the economy before the election in November.
This doesn't affect the fact that an independent FED is by far the most important aspect for the Dollar in the future.
Otherwise, welcome to Zimbabwe.

[EarnOnVictor]

There is not a single thing or institution that is independent anymore, everything is political and biased. Wake up, you are living in a fantasy that does not exist anymore for decades.

You think this is the best way to go? Agreed, politics is everywhere, but some of what the world still holds in high esteem, seen as truly autonomous and followed and respected, is the Federal Reserve. Take this away, and the US will further be ridiculed.

That's because he is a psychopath, which I believe is the reason why he has raped little girls in the past. It is not just pedophilia with him, it is his need to feel dominant. Something we can see in all his behaviors (the main reason why I use the term "emperor wannabe" for him).

And he keeps getting away from these, which is the most annoying part.

Trump's behaviour has been exactly the opposite of sanity and right order. I wonder how this guy gets to be the president of the most powerful nation in the world, if not for the division that is at an extreme among the people.

Some people can't help themselves from being stupid! Those U.S. soldiers were adjusting the red carpet at the stairs of Putin's plane, getting it ready for when he disembarked his plane.

I don't blame the soldiers, but the "power that be," they do not have a choice. I am sure they would be ashamed of themselves doing that. Frankly, this is appalling and so shameful that Putin, a murderer, is being given such a warm welcome on US soil.

[SUPERSAIAN]

I mostly support Trump but I don’t understand why he is in a hurry. I mean the stock market is at its ATH, crypto is at ATH (bitcoin at least is, but the others are doing quite alright as well), then why is he so impatient with the rate cuts? I feel like some is about to snap soon. Statistically, it often happens right after the first rate cut. Yes, recession. Check the rate hike/cut chart if you don’t believe me. That also means the markets are about to crash if Powell follows Trump’s word. I think Trump knows this better than anyone. Then why would he want it? It is like he wants to crash the markets. I mean, if the economy is doing good and markets are breaking records, why even cut rates because everything looks good on paper. We’ll find out soon enough.

Stock markets and cryptocurrencies are at their highest levels. If interest rates fall, they'll reach their highest levels. The economy isn't doing very well. There's a massive wave of inflation in America and globally. If interest rates fall, at least the temporary artificial relief in the markets will pass, and the real economy will emerge.

High interest rates are only delaying this devastation, but Trump is a hasty man who wants to completely overhaul and fix the economy, so I understand that. Interest rate expectations were high in September due to the decline, but I heard they've been decreasing in the coming days, they're saying it's due to negative signals from the producer price index.

[Agbe]

This is trump for you my concern is the aftermath effect of these policies that is been in backed by the trump administration because there will be also consequences of what trump is doing right now in the Americans economy Powell should not give in to the pressure of cutting down any rate further if need be he should resign and let trump appoint someone that will do what ever that he says because the fact is what trump is doing is executive rascality

[pooya87]

And whose fault would that be? The President that is in office less than 12 months?

The chart you quoted answers your question if you look at the horizontal axis. It's the system that's corrupt, replacing the renter of Oval Office every 4 years can not fix that, replacing the regime does.

people who have never even read some basic economics book
Increase rates to stop a recession and lose the race even more

I haven't read a single economics book in my life and I never claimed to be an expert but AFAIK it is "basic economics" that increasing rates would increase recession not stop it.

This would also explain why they are getting more desperate to cut the rates. Recession is killing production and they wish that by cutting rates they can help it improve...
This desperation is palpable in all of other Trump's actions as well. For example the recent meeting with Putin in Alaska. 2 psychos met and Trump basically sold Ukraine and Europe out just so he can focus elsewhere (specifically Asia, working from West toward East).

Ukraine is a corrupted shithole, that is not part of this topic. You can go in the politics board.

You want to discuss politics, my post is clearly about economics. What you call "corrupted shithole" has been sucking billions of dollars of American taxpayers money for years because of a proxy war the US regime started with Russia.

It's all about money. Basically the US regime wants to have its cake and eat it too. They want all the proxy wars they keep starting in multiple continents to continue without paying a price themselves whilst filling their own pockets. How? Look at what Europeans are saying after Alaska meeting.
Who is EU going to purchase weapons from? The American arms dealers.
Who will make millions? The US regime who is on the payroll of the arms dealers like Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, ...
Who will be hurt? The regular people. Whether those who are being blown up because of these proxy wars or the European people who have funding cut for various sectors like healthcare and education to purchase weapons or the American people who have to endure inflation and recession, as the regime keeps printing more dollars and creating more inflation whilst also isolating USA more and more as a pariah.

Ukrainians' reactions in their social media were funny when they saw US military (red circle) do this for Putin:

They just made fun on the situation knowing that vast majority of Ukrainians hate Putin and they just made fun on the situation for thinking that US soldier is kneeling on Putin while the fact they are just fixing the carpet as part if diplomatic respect for Russian leader.

Here's the story about this if other people want to read about that situation https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/us-soldiers-kneeling-for-putin-viral-red-carpet-photo-triggers-backlash-california-gov-newsom-calls-it-disgusting/articleshow/123328337.cms

But for sure US soldier won't do that as they are loyal to their flag and obey their leader.

The problem isn't that US soldiers knelt in front of Putin. That's just the funny thing that went viral on the social media.

The problem is that on paper Ukraine is at war with Russia but Russia and US meet to discuss end of that war and decide on what Ukraine must do (eg. giving up its eastern territory). Something that proves that unlike on paper, in reality this war was a proxy war from the beginning between Russia and US and not a regular war between Russia and Ukraine.

Of course there are other reasons why Ukrainians are outraged apart from the fact that US just demanded they give up their territory; things like the fact that US is throwing a red carpet to receive the invader of their country who also has an arrest warrant out issued by Western organizations (the international court thing). Something the US regime doesn't care about at all.
Things such as the fact that simultaneously the US regime is demanding that Ukraine give up its natural resources to US (the mineral deal thing) which is also another indication of how desperate US is economically after the tariff war they started specifically with China (that controls global supply of some of those minerals).

[Die_empty]

Of course there are other reasons why Ukrainians are outraged apart from the fact that US just demanded they give up their territory; things like the fact that US is throwing a red carpet to receive the invader of their country who also has an arrest warrant out issued by Western organizations (the international court thing). Something the US regime doesn't care about at all.
Things such as the fact that simultaneously the US regime is demanding that Ukraine give up its natural resources to US (the mineral deal thing) which is also another indication of how desperate US is economically after the tariff war they started specifically with China (that controls global supply of some of those minerals).

Ukraine is becoming the biggest loser. They lost thousands of young soldiers and civilians. They were forced to sign a deal giving out some expensive, rare earth minerals. The invader and their main supporter are discussing the terms of peace without them. From the look of things, they might lose some part of their territory.

The US's desperation to acquire lithium, graphite, manganese, titanium and others was because China has established itself as a major player in the rare earth mineral industry. Australia and Chile might be the major producers of lithium but China controls the market. Thereby giving them an edge in the global lithium battery sector.

This should be a lesson to nations that depend on others to fight wars.       

[abhiseshakana]

Ukraine is becoming the biggest loser. They lost thousands of young soldiers and civilians. They were forced to sign a deal giving out some expensive, rare earth minerals. The invader and their main supporter are discussing the terms of peace without them. From the look of things, they might lose some part of their territory.

The US's desperation to acquire lithium, graphite, manganese, titanium and others was because China has established itself as a major player in the rare earth mineral industry. Australia and Chile might be the major producers of lithium but China controls the market. Thereby giving them an edge in the global lithium battery sector.

This should be a lesson to nations that depend on others to fight wars.       

A ceasefire was difficult to achieve because Ukraine insisted on NATO membership. If Zelinski had not insisted on joining NATO, Russia would not have attacked Ukraine. There is no free lunch. When America helped Ukraine fight Russia, the bill eventually emerged with an agreement on Ukraine's rare earth deposits. However, after further investigation, it was discovered that there are only a few rare earths in Ukraine, especially since the mining and extraction process takes a long time and requires funds that are difficult to calculate and certainly not necessarily profitable. At this time, Ukraine has no bargaining position (a dead card). The lesson learned from the case of Ukraine and the United States is not to negotiate if you have no bargaining chips. If you have no bargaining chips, the only options left are to rely on developed countries and foreign debt.

[Fortify]

Let me first put the question to you: Is Trump right to pressure Jerome Powell to cut the Federal Funds Rate?

Trump! Trump!! Trump!!! This soul looks unspeakable, to be honest. Trump likes to control everything and likes everyone to bend the knee. If you prove too stubborn, you will either be sanctioned, tariffed or blackmailed. It's no news that Jerome Powell is now in the black book of Trump, simply because he refused to cut the interest rate. More pressure has been mounted in recent weeks, which includes verbal harassment, threats of replacement and blackmail. The recent blackmail is the lawsuit threatened regarding the Fed's building renovation fund, something Trump wouldn't have thought of if Powell had done his bidding. Mehnnn, Trump will always be Trump.

Now, I took my time to check the US inflation figure to judge if this pressure is worth it, and honestly, it is not, at least arguably not, except that Trump always wants things done his way, regardless of whether or not it follows due process/economics. If at all, the uncertainty ignited by Trump's tariff war is a good reason to wait for the cut.

Again, from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US core inflation rate looks upward to me, which was rekindled in March 2025. Is this the right time to cut the rate?

One of the main problems that you overlook is that Trump is the root cause of inflation being pushed back up - his unfriendly stance to business and other countries has generated unnecessary extra costs, plus made it much harder for them to plan for the longer term and they are currently in bunker down mode which will stifle growth. He recently fired the head of the statistics agency, which is dictator like behavior, simply because he did not like the bad numbers he had caused and wanted someone that would fake new ones in future. Finally there are tariffs, which are simply a tax on American consumers and trade policy is meant to be decided by Congress yet he has short circuited the protections and democratic processes that have existed for centuries, it is very bad for the average American's future rights.

[justdimin]

I know, Trump is the last episode of this. I also remember when Powell cut rates 50 basis points last September, just to boost the economy before the election in November.
This doesn't affect the fact that an independent FED is by far the most important aspect for the Dollar in the future.
Otherwise, welcome to Zimbabwe.

Independent FED is definitely important, but independent doesn't mean without any agenda. Sure, no president has any power over FED, that is an awesome thing, and every FED in the whole world should be independent like that.

But, just because some are not independent, doesn't mean they turn into Zimbabwe. Look at China, they have a dictator in charge, who has enough power to do whatever he wants, he is like a god to them, party leader is always like that. Are they really looking into becoming Zimbabwe? No, they are not. So you have two possibilities, independent FED, who has its own agenda, making the economy worse, or dependent FED, who does a good job, and keeps the economy strong. That means, it is not the independence that makes FED great, it should be independent for sure, I am in favour of that, but it also should do the right thing.

[alegotardo]

Let me first put the question to you: Is Trump right to pressure Jerome Powell to cut the Federal Funds Rate?

I donot think so!

From what I'm seeing in the current outlook for the US economy, inflation are above the 2% target... CPI-U is at 2.7% and Core CPI at approximately 3.1% over the last 12 months. Am I right? Correct me if my sources are lying.
But, In other words... even if its not a chaotic scenario (yet), inflation still persists at a very moderate rate, and to make matters worse, the labor market is also showing signs of slowing job creation... all of this raises great concern about Trump's ability to create economic stability.

I think Jerome Powell's leadership of the Fed is quite prudent amid so much short-term uncertainty, even if it doesn't please Trump because if they cut rates now, I think it would further stimulate an increase in inflation, especially with the delayed effect of the tariffs that are still very present in the US economy.

I'm not american, but my payment here is in fixed U$

[lizarder]

Now, I took my time to check the US inflation figure to judge if this pressure is worth it, and honestly, it is not, at least arguably not, except that Trump always wants things done his way, regardless of whether or not it follows due process/economics. If at all, the uncertainty ignited by Trump's tariff war is a good reason to wait for the cut.

Again, from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US core inflation rate looks upward to me, which was rekindled in March 2025. Is this the right time to cut the rate?

There's no end to the discussion about Trump's policies, and he's perhaps one of the more crazed leaders in his decision-making. Interest rates are being discussed almost worldwide now because the hikes are so high and even beyond the imagination of the leaders who receive them. We never know whether these decisions represent all elements of the decision-making process or not, because what appears to be true doesn't always match what actually happens. Rising inflation requires a successful rate cut, but the long-term process may need to be considered as a quick response option.

How is the performance of the employment sector and whether this sector also influences the foundation for achieving a better life for the community because if the percentage increases, it can actually harm economic growth and that means that interest rate cuts could be interconnected in the process of solving existing problems.

[EarnOnVictor]

I know, Trump is the last episode of this. I also remember when Powell cut rates 50 basis points last September, just to boost the economy before the election in November.
This doesn't affect the fact that an independent FED is by far the most important aspect for the Dollar in the future.
Otherwise, welcome to Zimbabwe.

Independent FED is definitely important, but independent doesn't mean without any agenda. Sure, no president has any power over FED, that is an awesome thing, and every FED in the whole world should be independent like that.

The "agenda" part struck me really big. Both the president and the head of the central bank could have their "agendas," but who cares? So long as it's an autonomous organisation, every party should respect that.

The US is a leader, this is why people are more concerned. We've seen the excesses of nations' presidents against the central bank heads (Governor, President, Chairman, etc., depending on the country/region (Bloc)). An example is in 2021 when the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, sacked the central bank governor,  Naci Agbal for hiking the interest rate against his wish, and replaced him with Şahap Kavcıoğlu, who was known for low-rate advocacy.

You might want to ask: Is the Turkish central bank not autonomous? It is autonomous, but all these overruling presidents do as they like, they believe like a dictator, and nothing will happen. However, the US is a strong exception, a role model for the world, which is why the global market was apprehensive when Trump started his nonsense against the FED.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/3/20/turkeys-erdogan-sacks-central-bank-governor-after-rate-hike

[pooya87]

Independent FED is definitely important, but independent doesn't mean without any agenda. Sure, no president has any power over FED, that is an awesome thing, and every FED in the whole world should be independent like that.

FED is not exactly independent though. The chair of FED is nominated by the US president and is approved by the Senate. Not to mention that the US President has options to remove the chair even if he can't directly fire him. I don't think we can call it independence.

[ultrloa]

Independent FED is definitely important, but independent doesn't mean without any agenda. Sure, no president has any power over FED, that is an awesome thing, and every FED in the whole world should be independent like that.

FED is not exactly independent though. The chair of FED is nominated by the US president and is approved by the Senate. Not to mention that the US President has options to remove the chair even if he can't directly fire him. I don't think we can call it independence.

Even if they are been chosen by the US president their duty is not to serve their personal interest.

FED duty is to serve the interest of economy in their country and President is out of scope of any administration.

But somehow we cannot deny that their our corrupt officials out there have debt of gratitude towards their appointments gotten from the President. So hopefully the chosen official have right or solid principles and cannot be controlled by anyone.

[gunhell16]

Even if they cut the rate, we can't do anything about it, and many people will still be affected. Whatever the Fed does is surely with Trump's blessing, in my opinion.
It could all be a show, as we know Trump was a businessman before he became president.

Also, the way I see it, Trump is a scammer. Look, they don't have any plans to buy Bitcoin; what they'll do is just look for Bitcoin they can confiscate,
and they'll hold onto it and sell it at the right time.

[Iroh]

But somehow we cannot deny that their our corrupt officials out there have debt of gratitude towards their appointments gotten from the President. So hopefully the chosen official have right or solid principles and cannot be controlled by anyone.

Do you actually believe the official chosen nominated by Trump with the so called right and solid principles won't be controlled by Trump himself? Take a look at his cabinet members. They're all trying to outdo each other on who could praise and flatter the ego of the president more.
Trump now says the Epstein files is a hoax, Pam Bondi who initially said she had the Epstein files on her desk just waiting to be reviewed, now says differently.

[Orpichukwu]

Independent FED is definitely important, but independent doesn't mean without any agenda. Sure, no president has any power over FED, that is an awesome thing, and every FED in the whole world should be independent like that.

FED is not exactly independent though. The chair of FED is nominated by the US president and is approved by the Senate. Not to mention that the US President has options to remove the chair even if he can't directly fire him. I don't think we can call it independence.

That option that the US president has to remove the Fed chair is limited, which means that a man like Trump – if there was much for him to do in his power – could have replaced Jerome Powell long ago instead of badmouthing him long ago, as that one is not on the same economic path. By law, Trump can only take action against him if he has done anything based on his own personal interest or is not effective on duty.

[crwth]

Has anyone correlated this with the historical data that people have? Like past rate cut cycles and their effects, such as the 2008 crisis or those in the 1970s? The long-term impact on the economy could be devastating, and, as others have noted, it could trigger a market crash. I agree that it's better to have something to diversify into, like Bitcoin.

[coyhasmon]

Even if they are been chosen by the US president their duty is not to serve their personal interest.

FED duty is to serve the interest of economy in their country and President is out of scope of any administration.

But somehow we cannot deny that their our corrupt officials out there have debt of gratitude towards their appointments gotten from the President. So hopefully the chosen official have right or solid principles and cannot be controlled by anyone.

Will you stop repeating this average person shit? The FED has not been independent for longer than you have been alive. The first consideration is always political and a power play, economy is secondary. Thinking that Powell has the economy in his heart, how stupid one must be.  

That option that the US president has to remove the Fed chair is limited, which means that a man like Trump – if there was much for him to do in his power – could have replaced Jerome Powell long ago instead of badmouthing him long ago, as that one is not on the same economic path. By law, Trump can only take action against him if he has done anything based on his own personal interest or is not effective on duty.

Wrong, another post by someone who does not live in the US or understand its law. Trump can remove Powell by tomorrow. This would cause a short term negative market reaction, which he does not want. That is the only reason why he does not do it. It has nothing to do with his ability to do it, he has the power to do it.

Has anyone correlated this with the historical data that people have? Like past rate cut cycles and their effects, such as the 2008 crisis or those in the 1970s? The long-term impact on the economy could be devastating, and, as others have noted, it could trigger a market crash. I agree that it's better to have something to diversify into, like Bitcoin.

Nobody in this thread has any data on anything tbh.

Also, the way I see it, Trump is a scammer. Look, they don't have any plans to buy Bitcoin; what they'll do is just look for Bitcoin they can confiscate,
and they'll hold onto it and sell it at the right time.

Doing the things he promised in ways that go along with the methods that he promised to use makes him a scammer? Quite the genius you are sir. Eat some beef for a change, it will positively contribute to your brain.