Trump and the pressing rate cut

[Ambatman]

To me, this is the point.
A 25 cut is a policy error, in my humble opinion, but this cut or even a 50 bps one, aren’t going to change anything in the big scheme of events.

I am trying to say is a bit different. Even if it is an error, it is not going to destroy the economy. Do the cut, observe what happens and let's see if it is a mistake or not.

And would a rate cut save the economy? No I highly doubt that
The recent Tariff drama is one major variable that is making them try the wait and see approach
What impact is it going to have on inflation and the extent
It would definitely push inflation and a rate cut would also do same.
The US is in a tricky situation they might be heading into a recession (which could encourage the rate cut).

[coyhasmon]

The fed has a dual mandate. Job market is at historical high. Unemployment is at a level consistent with full employment. Wage are growing, slower, but growing.
Inflation is still above target, with a potential effect from tariffs that has still to materialise, given the most increase comes from services and housing markets.
The risk is to cut to soon, and when tariffs come into play, being forced to raise rates too violently.

I understand what you are trying to say, but I am trying to say that the risk is much less than it is perceived because the cuts are so small. A single 25 point cut is not gonna crash the economy.   Now if they were to make a major cut right away after a long break, say 50 points or even 100 then I would be concerned. In the case of a too early 25 point cut, the negative effects are going to be mild but noticeable enough to create a pause on the next cut. I am not concerned with this at all.

And would a rate cut save the economy? No I highly doubt that

Maybe, who knows. Let them cut it and stop fighting what is inevitably coming. We will find out after a cut who was right.

The US is in a tricky situation they might be heading into a recession (which could encourage the rate cut).

The US economy is doing better than the economy of Canada, the UK, and any EU country. Don't worry about recession under Trump if you didn't worry about it under Biden, when there was actually a recession they just changed its definition to hide it.  

[Hamza2424]

Now, I took my time to check the US inflation figure to judge if this pressure is worth it, and honestly, it is not, at least arguably not, except that Trump always wants things done his way, regardless of whether or not it follows due process/economics. If at all, the uncertainty ignited by Trump's tariff war is a good reason to wait for the cut.

Again, from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US core inflation rate looks upward to me, which was rekindled in March 2025. Is this the right time to cut the rate?

If tariff war goes in the favor of USA then Trump wins and still Trump is winning because they are using crypto money of the crypto people to pay their debts the debts on USA are exceeding and with that they won't be able to win the wars either tariff or political so to win the hearts of the Americans they are using some type of manipulationg and playing the insider game with the crypto people to force them to buy Bounds and they are making money while chilling and here we are suffering and giving away our money in parts.

Those who trade regularly are real victim of this but those who hold and don't give any f to the world and what is happening and they are just accumulating BTC for the big pumps they are making money only and most of the people are in trading, they don't invest and hold for years because they think that's not the way fastest way to make money.

Anyway bro, Trump wants to be the news of everyday, and he is now, he wants attention and things to do on his own way he is doing now, let's see the outcomes at the end.

[punk.zink]

The fed has a dual mandate. Job market is at historical high. Unemployment is at a level consistent with full employment. Wage are growing, slower, but growing.
Inflation is still above target, with a potential effect from tariffs that has still to materialise, given the most increase comes from services and housing markets.
The risk is to cut to soon, and when tariffs come into play, being forced to raise rates too violently.

Got your point. The key is for the Fed to maintain its traditional independence. This means working and making decisions based on data, not political pressure. Under current conditions, the most appropriate policy, in my opinion, is to hold interest rates longer, while waiting for evidence that inflation is truly approaching the target, rather than bowing to Trump's political pressure. Because the labor market is healthy, inflation remains above target, with the added risk of import tariffs. Therefore, urgent interest rate cuts are counterproductive and could trigger inflation, weaken the Fed's credibility, and ultimately lead to more drastic interest rate hikes in the future. Trump's policy is a short-term political calculation, but it has the potential to cause medium-term macroeconomic instability, as global investors are always watching to see whether the Fed is independent or merely a political tool for Trump.

So, going forward, let's see whether the classic recipe for inflation—high fiscal deficits + import tariffs + interest rate cuts—is realized, or whether energy stability, successful trade negotiations, and technological productivity will suppress prices.

[justdimin]

The key is for the Fed to maintain its traditional independence. This means working and making decisions based on data, not political pressure. Under current conditions, the most appropriate policy, in my opinion, is to hold interest rates longer, while waiting for evidence that inflation is truly approaching the target, rather than bowing to Trump's political pressure. Because the labor market is healthy, inflation remains above target, with the added risk of import tariffs. Therefore, urgent interest rate cuts are counterproductive and could trigger inflation, weaken the Fed's credibility, and ultimately lead to more drastic interest rate hikes in the future. Trump's policy is a short-term political calculation, but it has the potential to cause medium-term macroeconomic instability, as global investors are always watching to see whether the Fed is independent or merely a political tool for Trump.

So, going forward, let's see whether the classic recipe for inflation—high fiscal deficits + import tariffs + interest rate cuts—is realized, or whether energy stability, successful trade negotiations, and technological productivity will suppress prices.

To be fair, it's about creating more jobs as well. When the interest is high, there is no incentive to invest your money elsewhere, there is no reason to look for anything else. If you really want to, you could just simply end up with investing that money into interest and get good return. But when the interest is low, then that means you can use that to invest into starting yet another factory or something, or another shop, and that way hire more people.

Do you know how many people are fed just with one big Walmart? All those workers and their families get to live and feed. So yeah, lower rate would equal to lower unemployment, more spending, and then it would lower the inflation and make the economy go bigger.

[fillippone]

At the moment a cut is weighted 98% by the market.
25 bps is 100%.
There is quite big size of forecast going for more dovish, but as someone told in the Fed is not going to impact with so little effort.

[EarnOnVictor]

-snip-

Nah, there is no evidence that governors are being forced to resign through blackmail.  With effect from Aug 8, Adriana Kugler resigned voluntarily, the majority of the coverage attributes this to professional reasons rather than coercion.

Blackmailers don't do it in the open, it's political. However, those who can read between the lines will surely suspect, at least, this is obvious. Many headlines captured it as "strange," while other says it's "usual." And Trump, as we know, likes to have his way one way or another, and even the harassments of the members is enough to know that something are going on underground.

Look at it this way: If Trump doesn't have an interest there, I am sure that Adriana Kugler will still be active.

At the moment a cut is weighted 98% by the market.
25 bps is 100%.
There is quite big size of forecast going for more dovish, but as someone told in the Fed is not going to impact with so little effort.

The rate cut is imminent, with 89% forecast last week. Perhaps it has grown higher, and indeed, I read a news which quoted "nearly 100%" forecast on the cut. These are big!

The 25bps is the popular prediction, and my main focus is on how the market will react in case of a higher or lower than rexpected release. I expect a tsunami-like market reaction in this case. While 25bps will have a little effect, holding the rate will be disappointing and might send the USD lower.

[free-bit.co.in]

At the moment a cut is weighted 98% by the market.
25 bps is 100%.
There is quite big size of forecast going for more dovish, but as someone told in the Fed is not going to impact with so little effort.

With the non-farm payrolls report just released and coming in much lower than expected, it shows that the US job market is clearly weakening. With this signal, the prediction of the Fed cutting interest rates on September 17 on CME has reached 100%. Of these, 88% predict that the Fed will cut 25 basis points, while 12% believe that the Fed will cut 50 basis points.

It can be said that a Fed rate cut is almost certain, but let's wait and see if there are any surprises. It would be a big boost for the market if they suddenly cut 50 basis points instead of 25  .

[dezoel]

The rate cut is imminent, with 89% forecast last week. Perhaps it has grown higher, and indeed, I read a news which quoted "nearly 100%" forecast on the cut. These are big!

The 25bps is the popular prediction, and my main focus is on how the market will react in case of a higher or lower than rexpected release. I expect a tsunami-like market reaction in this case. While 25bps will have a little effect, holding the rate will be disappointing and might send the USD lower.

Something at least a bit small, is a must and there is no way back. I mean it is not about trump, I hate trump personally for example, but even I think rates should be cut, it is not really about republicans or democrats anymore, literally the whole nation believes it should be done.

The only people who may not think this way, should be people who have high amounts at banks getting great returns on their interest. Otherwise the whole nation is expecting the rate to go down, because it is not helping inflation anymore, it is what it is, might as well we drop the unemployment rate. Right now, there are more unemployed people in the USA than job openings, meaning even if you put all unemployed people into a job, then there won't be enough. Which we all know, not all unemployed people fill all the roles anyways.

[EarnOnVictor]

At the moment a cut is weighted 98% by the market.
25 bps is 100%.
There is quite big size of forecast going for more dovish, but as someone told in the Fed is not going to impact with so little effort.

With the non-farm payrolls report just released and coming in much lower than expected, it shows that the US job market is clearly weakening. With this signal, the prediction of the Fed cutting interest rates on September 17 on CME has reached 100%. Of these, 88% predict that the Fed will cut 25 basis points, while 12% believe that the Fed will cut 50 basis points.

Well said, and to buttress that, the PPI released yesterday is another pointer that Powell will cut the rate this month, no matter how little, amid Trump's pressure and insults. This is not a certainty though, they are only pointers. As you can see below, the PPI, despite being predicted by experts to be at 0.3% was released lower yesterday at -0.1%, which is a huge gap.



All eyes are on the CPI today. Experts have majorly predicted a rise, but let's see what the outcome will be.

[coyhasmon]

At the moment a cut is weighted 98% by the market.
25 bps is 100%.
There is quite big size of forecast going for more dovish, but as someone told in the Fed is not going to impact with so little effort.

Let's see if I was right. One must remember that numbers under Biden were very manipulated and highly skewed to show his performance much better than it was. This is partially the aftermath of that.

Well said, and to buttress that, the PPI released yesterday is another pointer that Powell will cut the rate this month, no matter how little, amid Trump's pressure and insults. This is not a certainty though, they are only pointers. As you can see below, the PPI, despite being predicted by experts to be at 0.3% was released lower yesterday at -0.1%, which is a huge gap.



All eyes are on the CPI today. Experts have majorly predicted a rise, but let's see what the outcome will be.

It doesn't matter. The FED has a dual mandate and people tend to forget about the former because of the latter, jobs and inflation. Jobs need the rate cut, it has been clear with the recent slowdowns and number revisions. It is happening for sure. Not even the 25 cut is enough, a 50 cut would be welcome.

[fillippone]

It doesn't matter. The FED has a dual mandate and people tend to forget about the former because of the latter, jobs and inflation. Jobs need the rate cut, it has been clear with the recent slowdowns and number revisions. It is happening for sure. Not even the 25 cut is enough, a 50 cut would be welcome.

The market is pricing three cuts by year's end.
PPI and CPI came in softer than expected.
I personally don't think in a 50 bps move, even if I do agree with your position: 25 bps are going to have little effect in the big scheme of things, yet, I can't see the FED cutting by 50 bps.
50 bps aren't priced in at the moment, so hugely bullish or crypto.

[darewaller]

It's the risky part. Because we already know that the rates will be cut and there is no question about it, but that means shouldn't the market be already priced in? I mean if we all know that it will happen, then why would it happen a sudden move when the cuts are official? That should be the most important part, and that is why we are not going to get the results that we want. I can see that it is going to be a tough one but it is going to be not impossible at all.

We are going to see how rates will impact but I would be shocked if any big move happens on the day of it, because it should be priced in already and not have anything different. We will make it happen one way or another, but buying already is a good move.

[fillippone]

So we had the first rate cut.
It was largely anticipated, and now the market is pricing two more cuts before Endof the year.
Interesting development on Miran: as CEA chair he penciled in 3% GDP; now he’s the basement dot on the Fed dot plot—a decidedly dovish plot twist.

[Theupdude]

The cut was priced in though so no real surprise there but the interesting part is how quickly the market jumped to expecting more. The dot plot has now a clear dovish tilt, and the position of Miran shows just how broad the range of views inside the Fed has become. In practise this means liquidity will likely remain loose into year end, which historically has been good for both equities and Bitcoin.

Still, rate cuts alone aren't the guarantee of a straight line-up. If growth is weakening more quickly than anticipated, risk sentiment can be quick to reverse. I think for Bitcoin holders the bigger takeaway is that the Fed is signalling it would rather err on the side of easing, and that in the long run bodes well for the case for hard assets.

[fillippone]

The cut was priced in though so no real surprise there but the interesting part is how quickly the market jumped to expecting more. The dot plot has now a clear dovish tilt, and the position of Miran shows just how broad the range of views inside the Fed has become. In practise this means liquidity will likely remain loose into year end, which historically has been good for both equities and Bitcoin.

Still, rate cuts alone aren't the guarantee of a straight line-up. If growth is weakening more quickly than anticipated, risk sentiment can be quick to reverse. I think for Bitcoin holders the bigger takeaway is that the Fed is signalling it would rather err on the side of easing, and that in the long run bodes well for the case for hard assets.

The market is always very keen on pricing excessive reaction by the FED. Also, I think Miran signaled that the President, "always late JPow", is becoming more isolated in his rightful, in my opinion, opposition to Trump.
We will see. I guess the end of the dual mandate at the FED is nearing.

[WillyAp]

Tarifs are backfiring and it hits farmers who depend on China to buy their harvests.
Mostly running on credit they rely on those sales.
Farmers should start emailing Latin American countries and offer the good prices.

[fillippone]

Tarifs are backfiring and it hits farmers who depend on China to buy their harvests.
Mostly running on credit they rely on those sales.
Farmers should start emailing Latin American countries and offer the good prices.

This is the biggest misunderstanding about the tariffs: who is going to pay for those? The reality is that the american consumer are paying those, not the foreign corporations. This is why there is an inflation wall coming.

[dezoel]

The cut was priced in though so no real surprise there but the interesting part is how quickly the market jumped to expecting more. The dot plot has now a clear dovish tilt, and the position of Miran shows just how broad the range of views inside the Fed has become. In practise this means liquidity will likely remain loose into year end, which historically has been good for both equities and Bitcoin.

Still, rate cuts alone aren't the guarantee of a straight line-up. If growth is weakening more quickly than anticipated, risk sentiment can be quick to reverse. I think for Bitcoin holders the bigger takeaway is that the Fed is signalling it would rather err on the side of easing, and that in the long run bodes well for the case for hard assets.

I mean it still went up a bit, but yeah mostly it was priced in because everyone expected it. And when something everyone expects happens, it is not going to end up being that crazy in the price neither. It's clear that we are reaching a point where this will not matter.

However, it's also true that we may reach a new bull run and we could get a greater return, because bull run hasn't really happened yet at the level we expect it to happen, so it's clear that we are going to get a better return. We should be hoping that it happens soon, but I guess there could be about another month left. If we can do that, then it's going to get great, it's going to reach a great level and we could make this work one way or another if we hold.

[pooya87]

I mean it still went up a bit, but yeah mostly it was priced in because everyone expected it.

I don't think so because we didn't have any unusual rises prior to this to be considered a reaction to this expectation. Not to mention that rate cut itself has absolutely no effect on bitcoin price, the effects of it on the economy could have an effect on bitcoin price after a while. Considering how US economy is getting worse for the average American, I doubt any positive effect rate cut may have will have any effect on bitcoin.

Another problem is that we can no longer trust the states released officially because most of them are fake. We all know all governments fake their stats to look better, but at this point Trump is getting more ruthless silencing everyone and lying to get his way. For example 2 days ago he banned the official reports on hunger in US and poverty rate, before that he shut down a popular show and banned everyone from saying anything negative about him,...
The censorship is at an all time high in the US which only means a worsening situation economical and otherwise...

This can also explain why there is no major bitcoin price rise these days with price stuck below $120k despite everyone expecting a bull run.