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Author Topic: Major correction to rally coming...  (Read 10163 times)
BTC_Bear
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December 25, 2011, 01:27:07 AM
 #21

Thank You,

That is speculation, much appreciated.

Do you put more weight on RSI or StochRSI as being a better indicator?

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December 25, 2011, 01:30:12 AM
 #22

My analysis is based on these points:

1. Elliott waves.  I have a feeling that what we just experienced (1 month long rally) might've been II.b.1 (or however you say it).  Of course, Elliott waves are rather unreliable.
2. RSI at 70 for a while.
3. Daily parabolic SAR, a reliable indicator of massive selloffs, is approaching the price.  Last three times this happened:
(a) August selloff.  $13 -> $5.7
(b) Early September selloff.  $8 -> $4.2 low
(c) Mid-November selloff.  $3 -> $2
Yeah, yeah, sample size 3... but it's hard to get a larger sample size in the larger movements of Bitcoin markets Tongue
Also, it changes rarely, but when it changes, it has predicted 33-60% decreases, which is pretty damn interesting, if not completely predictive, in my book.
4. It's gone up, up, up for a month... it's simply time for a correction, which we haven't had on a large scale yet.

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December 25, 2011, 01:44:51 AM
 #23

My analysis is based on these points:

1. Elliott waves.  I have a feeling that what we just experienced (1 month long rally) might've been II.b.1 (or however you say it).  Of course, Elliott waves are rather unreliable.
2. RSI at 70 for a while.
3. Daily parabolic SAR, a reliable indicator of massive selloffs, is approaching the price.  Last three times this happened:
(a) August selloff.  $13 -> $5.7
(b) Early September selloff.  $8 -> $4.2 low
(c) Mid-November selloff.  $3 -> $2
Yeah, yeah, sample size 3... but it's hard to get a larger sample size in the larger movements of Bitcoin markets Tongue
Also, it changes rarely, but when it changes, it has predicted 33-60% decreases, which is pretty damn interesting, if not completely predictive, in my book.
4. It's gone up, up, up for a month... it's simply time for a correction, which we haven't had on a large scale yet.
was't all that true before the jump on the 19th? what is different now?

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December 25, 2011, 01:48:33 AM
 #24

My analysis is based on these points:

1. Elliott waves.  I have a feeling that what we just experienced (1 month long rally) might've been II.b.1 (or however you say it).  Of course, Elliott waves are rather unreliable.
2. RSI at 70 for a while.
3. Daily parabolic SAR, a reliable indicator of massive selloffs, is approaching the price.  Last three times this happened:
(a) August selloff.  $13 -> $5.7
(b) Early September selloff.  $8 -> $4.2 low
(c) Mid-November selloff.  $3 -> $2
Yeah, yeah, sample size 3... but it's hard to get a larger sample size in the larger movements of Bitcoin markets Tongue
Also, it changes rarely, but when it changes, it has predicted 33-60% decreases, which is pretty damn interesting, if not completely predictive, in my book.
4. It's gone up, up, up for a month... it's simply time for a correction, which we haven't had on a large scale yet.

so you think we are on a downtrend still or an uptrend like you said on another thread? II.b.1 being the wave you think we are in.. but it's unreliable.. Maybe you have some bids up? Smiley

This section of the forum is quite fun to keep up with. Interesting to read what people put up here based on btc market conditions.

Either way, I guess if you think past selloffs are indicative of future btc performance then it seems safe to assume you think we are still in bear territory and rally was just a correction of the long half year long downtrend. I hope we are past that though and finally moving upwards in the coming year.
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December 25, 2011, 01:52:55 AM
 #25

What scares me the most, and I must discount until a certain price point, is the amount of unused BTC. The price is getting set by a relatively small amount of transactions based on the total BTC of 7.48 Million. I would try to apply the increase in volume activity with an increase in Ask volume to try and decide at what price points do people start to sell to claim profits.

The reason I discount the unused BTC, is if it wasn't heavily sold at $30, it probably will not be sold at anything <$30.

Although, I do wonder why? it wasn't sold at $30 in greater volume. Of course we had the 'crash', which I would have thought should have happened naturally rather than by a 'hack'.

The application of supply and demand of the miners, for me somewhat plays a role, since they removed the ability to mine from the GUI client. If they put that back in, then the supply and demand price means little since if miners can't afford to mine, the difficulty goes down possibly to a point of CPU client mining. Technically one could meet their own demand in a sense or at least with relatively a small amount of miners.

BTW, I didn't expect you to give away your analysis for anyones benefit, but just explain a little. Obviously if you find a correlation that works for you, you wouldn't tell a soul. Smiley

I know some discount TA as a joke in this market, but I do believe that when certain things occur others must happen. I.E. If it is 0º (F) the water will be frozen whether the temperature is going up or down and when it reaches a certain point it will melt.

It is the dam Timing, that screws with everything Smiley

Anyways, thanks for your views.

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December 25, 2011, 01:53:33 AM
 #26

My analysis is based on these points:

1. Elliott waves.  I have a feeling that what we just experienced (1 month long rally) might've been II.b.1 (or however you say it).  Of course, Elliott waves are rather unreliable.
2. RSI at 70 for a while.
3. Daily parabolic SAR, a reliable indicator of massive selloffs, is approaching the price.  Last three times this happened:
(a) August selloff.  $13 -> $5.7
(b) Early September selloff.  $8 -> $4.2 low
(c) Mid-November selloff.  $3 -> $2
Yeah, yeah, sample size 3... but it's hard to get a larger sample size in the larger movements of Bitcoin markets Tongue
Also, it changes rarely, but when it changes, it has predicted 33-60% decreases, which is pretty damn interesting, if not completely predictive, in my book.
4. It's gone up, up, up for a month... it's simply time for a correction, which we haven't had on a large scale yet.

so you think we are on a downtrend still or an uptrend like you said on another thread? II.b.1 being the wave you think we are in.. but it's unreliable.. Maybe you have some bids up? Smiley

I've actually reevaluated my count.  I don't think it's III anymore, because it's entirely possible that netrin's count was actually wrong but this is still II.b.  I was led to believe that it was III through a false dichotomy that I established for myself, unfortunately.

Now that all the major indicators are saying it's overbought, I think the correction might come soon.

(BFL)^2 < 0
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December 25, 2011, 01:54:33 AM
 #27

I'm with you, I called it as being a trap and I think I'll be proved right soon. 

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December 25, 2011, 03:01:10 AM
 #28


As you can see on the chart, we have had an RSI of over 70 for the past 6 days, with 32 days of positive divergence on the MCAD, and we are currently trading along the top range of the bollinger band. We hit a resistance of $4.5, bounced off it, and have had very weak buying activity since then.


OK, now look at the weekly RSI.

(Not that the RSI and bollinger bands have been the most reliable predictors of bitcoin price changes in the past).

And as for the bounce from $4.5, I prefer to see it as very weak selling activity since then.  Similar to just before, when it was hanging around $3.20 for a while, before the pop to $4.5.

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December 25, 2011, 08:47:17 AM
 #29

I think Santa just bought that $30k wall at $4.00.  

*ahem

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December 25, 2011, 09:12:48 AM
 #30

And I think it was the toothfairy who sold immediately after.

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December 25, 2011, 09:37:25 AM
 #31

And I think it was the toothfairy who sold immediately after.

No, that was just a bot and it was very low volume.  

The buy took out a $30k wall at $4.0 and up to $4.10, it was over $50k in total.  And it was Santa Claus.

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December 25, 2011, 09:54:32 AM
 #32

MtGoxLive shows about 10,000 btc volume at the peak, and about 18,500 at the trough, so the sell was almost equal in magnitude to the buy as far as I can tell.

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December 25, 2011, 10:05:59 AM
 #33

MtGoxLive shows about 10,000 btc volume at the peak, and about 18,500 at the trough, so the sell was almost equal in magnitude to the buy as far as I can tell.

Ah, yes it seems you are correct.  Hmm.. *ponders bot algorithm*

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December 25, 2011, 12:01:46 PM
 #34

Hey guys... Amount bought = amount sold - fees.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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December 25, 2011, 12:16:57 PM
 #35

And amount sold = amount bought + fees. Obviously, there are two parties on the end of every trade. But there is a big difference between a bid and an ask order, as the price is affected differently /stating the obvious.

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December 25, 2011, 01:01:27 PM
 #36

Today I made $782... Thanks santa  Grin

Also just realised I bought 100BTC on tradehill at 2.8 at some point Cheesy ... fuckin tradehill eh?

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December 25, 2011, 01:22:37 PM
 #37

Today I made $782... Thanks santa  Grin

Also just realised I bought 100BTC on tradehill at 2.8 at some point Cheesy ... fuckin tradehill eh?

What do you mean?  Do you mean you had an order execute last night on Tradehill for $2.80?  Or are you saying you forgot you had an order on Tradhill from a month ago that executed?  Either way, rock on!

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December 25, 2011, 02:00:32 PM
 #38

Is this the major correction this thread has been discussing?  Grin

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December 25, 2011, 02:08:01 PM
 #39

Today I made $782... Thanks santa  Grin

Also just realised I bought 100BTC on tradehill at 2.8 at some point Cheesy ... fuckin tradehill eh?

What do you mean?  Do you mean you had an order execute last night on Tradehill for $2.80?  Or are you saying you forgot you had an order on Tradhill from a month ago that executed?  Either way, rock on!


Dec. 16, 2011, 5:12 a.m. Had the order in probably since the 10th (last time it was down that low), but just saw it now, tryna sell it now at 4.35, thats the sell point i made the money off on mtgox today too.

Also just lookin at the charts for Dec 16th, i probably even got lucky buying that low.... veeeery bottom of the barrel, probably very few trades executed below that 2.8 on that day.

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December 25, 2011, 02:15:45 PM
 #40

I got lucky also. I put in a buy at ~$3.80 before going to bed. Woke up to find the price dipped down to my price then rocketed up to $4.28. Santa likes me. Cheesy

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