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Author Topic: Major correction to rally coming...  (Read 10168 times)
ineededausername
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December 24, 2011, 04:47:54 PM
 #1

There's been a rally for an entire month... time for a correction.  I'm going to predict a target of around $2.5-3 for this correction, but definitely not <$2.  The correction will probably come in the next week or two.

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December 24, 2011, 04:51:09 PM
 #2

4.25 is next target...

fyi  Cheesy

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December 24, 2011, 04:58:42 PM
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The macro picture will determine which of you is right.  It's foolish to think bitcoin is completely separate from the rest of the economy.  However, the uncertainty in the wider picture combined with the steady rise for the past month makes me lean bullish.

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December 24, 2011, 05:09:09 PM
 #4

4.25 is next target...

fyi  Cheesy

+1

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December 24, 2011, 05:24:06 PM
 #5

correction to 3-3.2 with following spike to 4.5-5 and back to 3.8-4

dec-jan
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December 24, 2011, 05:29:57 PM
 #6

correction to 3-3.2 with following spike to 4.5-5 and back to 3.8-4

dec-jan

That would be fantastic.  My bot loves volatility.

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December 24, 2011, 06:01:52 PM
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Oh no, I'm beginning to think if we drop below 3.61, we're going down below 2

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December 24, 2011, 06:06:46 PM
 #8

Too much renewed faith in the system to let it drop that low..  doubt it will hit below 3 for a long long time..

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December 24, 2011, 08:00:34 PM
 #9

There's been a rally for an entire month... time for a correction.  I'm going to predict a target of around $2.5-3 for this correction, but definitely not <$2.  The correction will probably come in the next week or two.

ever think the "rally" we have been seeing is a price correction, form the many months of value drop?
I think we'll see huge ups all year, next year
and even bigger ups the year after that.

for my new year resolution; I plan to spend some money in the bitcoin economy!  Wink

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December 24, 2011, 08:34:24 PM
 #10

I have buys around 3.6 because of the trendline S3052 identified, so if we correct I would expect it to be hit

Of course, if it is broken we could have a larger correction

Either way I'm long term bullish
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December 24, 2011, 08:49:23 PM
 #11

We'll probably be trading in a rather tight range until around 3-5th of January, where I will expect it to start another rally.

Edit: More like 4-6th of January after taking a second look.

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ineededausername
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December 24, 2011, 09:08:08 PM
 #12

We'll probably be trading in a rather tight range until around 3-5th of January, where I will expect it to start another rally.

Edit: More like 4-6th of January after taking a second look.

How are you obtaining that figure?  Just tracing S3052's trendline up?

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December 24, 2011, 09:12:51 PM
 #13

I had a quip but it turned into a slope Smiley

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December 25, 2011, 12:04:23 AM
 #14

From another thread:

1. up Dec  1 - $3.14
2. dn Dec  4 - $2.63 (50% retrace)
3. up Dec 19 - $4.5
4. dn (pick your own retrace target) 50% would be =~$3.57
5. up ~$5.8+ target


This sounds similar to what I'm thinking.  Going to $6, guys.

What caused the about turn in your forecast?

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December 25, 2011, 12:07:35 AM
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From another thread:

1. up Dec  1 - $3.14
2. dn Dec  4 - $2.63 (50% retrace)
3. up Dec 19 - $4.5
4. dn (pick your own retrace target) 50% would be =~$3.57
5. up ~$5.8+ target


This sounds similar to what I'm thinking.  Going to $6, guys.

What caused the about turn in your forecast?

he's short on bitcoinica? What else makes anyone bearish on this forum. lol
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December 25, 2011, 12:15:01 AM
 #16

Almost all of the posts in this subforum are propaganda. However, despite the likely bias of the OP, I tend to agree with his analysis. I think we will probably be seeing $3.20 again very soon, with further falls to about $2.60 over the next week or two. I don't think it will go much further than that. I liquidated some of my own holding earlier today, and am tentatively considering moving into fiat in the short term.

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December 25, 2011, 12:41:03 AM
 #17

I like all the 'feelings' and I'm 'thinking' going on. Keep up the good work.  Grin

Personally, I am relying on my weegie board. It says after playing 'Chicago' backwards the price will fall to $3.85  Grin  JK

But seriously,

 Could people state the reasons for said feelings and thinking. I.E. Site statistics are declining, Christmas is coming and people will be converting to cash (although that didn't happen), the RSI is showing overbought and after backtesting (LOL) there should be a 20% correction downwards, etc..., etc...

I like to see these views and opinions other than feelings...

And if you by chance do find a correlation post it immediately so we can make it disappear.  Grin


Corporations have been enthroned, An era of corruption in high places will follow and the money power will endeavor to prolong its reign by working on the prejudices of the people until wealth is aggregated in a few hands and the Republic is destroyed. ~Abe Lincoln 1ApJdWUdSWYw8n8HEATYhHXA9EYoRTy7c4
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December 25, 2011, 12:44:29 AM
 #18

The correction already happened, from $4.5 to $3.5.

The major players are too smart to take a dump on the rally this early, me thinks.  They'll bide their time, and wait till $10, at the least.  If we're going there, it will be sooner rather than later.

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December 25, 2011, 01:07:06 AM
 #19

I would think that you should take the volume and depth at those prices.

Is volume going up or down? If volume is going down and price going down, what does this imply. (and permutations of the two)

What percentage of BTC are being used to purchase durable goods, etc... rather than just transactional.

Is their a 'hydrological cycle', ie Miners pay for their equipment and power bills in BTC and then the suppliers of said services use BTC to purchase their resources, etc... ?

Or is it just a means of moving money from and to one currency and country to another ?  If a combination of both, at what percentages?

Is the market 'Cornered' ?  How do you work within a 'cornered' market?

Can this data: http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/mtgox.com  be put to any use?  Although there are some more detailed stats for Paid Stats.

Or

http://www.google.com/trends?q=mtgox&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all

http://www.google.com/trends?q=bitcoincharts%2Cmtgox%2Cclarkmoody%2Cmtgoxlive&ctab=0&geo=all&date=all&sort=0


Personally,

 I 'feel' a good TA would entail a causation for events. Or at least trying to find the causation for events. Predicting behavior is like a meteorologist predicting weather. He only gets it right more than 50% of the time to win.

Corporations have been enthroned, An era of corruption in high places will follow and the money power will endeavor to prolong its reign by working on the prejudices of the people until wealth is aggregated in a few hands and the Republic is destroyed. ~Abe Lincoln 1ApJdWUdSWYw8n8HEATYhHXA9EYoRTy7c4
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December 25, 2011, 01:14:53 AM
 #20

Could people state the reasons for said feelings and thinking. I.E. Site statistics are declining, Christmas is coming and people will be converting to cash (although that didn't happen), the RSI is showing overbought and after backtesting (LOL) there should be a 20% correction downwards, etc..., etc...

I like to see these views and opinions other than feelings...

I could state the logic behind my opinion, but why should I give you the advantage of my analysis?
Oh yeah, because it might become a self fulfilling prophecy if enough people believe it. Fair enough...



As you can see on the chart, we have had an RSI of over 70 for the past 6 days, with 32 days of positive divergence on the MCAD, and we are currently trading along the top range of the bollinger band. We hit a resistance of $4.5, bounced off it, and have had very weak buying activity since then. Also, you can see a hanging man doji on the candlestick chart 3 days ago. If the price closes below this doji, it is a strong signal to suggest the end of the rally.

In addition, I have been recording a historic market depth log, and the past few days have seen an increase in the ask side of the order book, associated with a significant drop in aggregate demand to the tune of about $150,000. The total demand on MtGox right now is $699,684. The total on the ask side is 202,637 btc. If all of the money on the bid side rushed into the ask side, the average price of a bitcoin would be $3.45, which is 50c below what we are currently trading at.

Since the start of the rally, about 200,000 new coins have been mined yet the total supply on mtgox has been diverging away from the relative total bitcoin supply. We should soon see a correction in this divergence when this month's newly mined bitcoins hit the markets, and this will be associated with a sharp drop in the price.

My opinions are not based on 'feelings' but real data.

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