El Salvador's bitcoin

[Davidvictorson]

Now Bukele has found out about this and seems to be hinting on social media. But do you genuinely believe El Salvador can magically get to a billion worth of bitcoin? They currently have over $700 Million. They would only need $300 million more. To me it seems a lot. To a country like El Salvador, that isn't easy money either. Would you bet on this?

If the president has already found out about this, then in my estimation he will want to get a billion worth of bitcoin and make the prediction true. It will make him more popular and in the political sphere, it is a popularity contest. Popular among his people, popular among other politicians both within and outside the nation. They can attract the kind of foreign investment that will bring them to the goal of $300 million. I do not know the political space of the country so well, but I believe that this is possible.

[Ryu_Ar1]

Their chance is still very possible of course especially with the remaining time that is currently still a few months left before the end of 2025 and consistent continuous purchases with a DCA of 1 bitcoin / day clearly they still have the opportunity to improve their condition to have $1 billion in bitcoin at the end of the year of course with some notes.

El Savador is still very serious about the development of bitcoin in their country so even if they don't achieve that then I don't think it's a big deal but as long as they want to do it then they will work hard to create that which even if there are many people who say it's impossible but they will still make it possible.
But regardless of the outcome we will just have to wait and see whether or not this speculation will become a reality in the end in a few months.

[Mia Chloe]

~snip

Actually I look at this El Salvador bet and see a lot of hype. They're at $700 million and need another $300 million to hit a billion by 2025. Yeah Bitcoin's price could do all the work for them and Bukele's tweets are more like a showman's trick to influence the market. But I'm still not touching that "yes" bet. The odds aren't good enough and there are too many variables like the IMF and wild price swings and when everyone's betting on the same thing it usually means the smart money has already cashed out.

I'd be looking to bet "no" hoping for a surprise price drop or a change in their strategy because the real value is in betting against the crowd sometimes.

[Mrbluntzy]

Just $300 million to get to $1 billion, I think that can be achieved before the end of 2025 but that's if the El Salvador government only wants to meet up with that target by the end of the year. What if the bet is even rigged, I mean if the betting platform secretly tell el Salvador not to buy more Bitcoin until after this year, just so that bettors can lose their bets. If it plays out fairly, I would bet on El Salvador holding to reach $1 billion before end of 2025 because I assume they can buy more Bitcoin before next year.

[348Judah]

Not sure if this should be under bitcoin topic or here lol. But there have been platforms, namely kalshi's prediction market and polymarket, have listed similar bets about El Salvador's bitcoin holdings. Both platforms have listed that El Salvador will have a total of $1 Billion worth of bitcoin by the end of 2025. The odds are pretty interesting. Now Bukele has found out about this and seems to be hinting on social media. But do you genuinely believe El Salvador can magically get to a billion worth of bitcoin? They currently have over $700 Million. They would only need $300 million more. To me it seems a lot. To a country like El Salvador, that isn't easy money either. Would you bet on this?

If they could invest to this extent, then I don't think that $700 million is something smalll that they cannot acheive having more in the future to any extent, all it may require is time, except they never wanted it, while as for those gambling this, I guess they already knows about the things happening over there in El-Salvador and their future plan to buy more investing, but to me it's still a risk game to predict on uncertainty, but people can gamble on anything and am not surprised at all on this.

[EluguHcman]

Nah I can not afford to bet on such poly market because it can be manipulated. How about if the El Salvador Bitcoin reserve administrators are behind the bookmaker providing this event in their sites with the interest of extracting money from the masses in the name of gaming? Will really be a massive failure for bettors betted on one direction in accord to if they can achieve the $1B worth of Bitcoin before the year or not.

To be honest, I am skeptical about this kind of bets because the bookmaker could keep users on track in corporation with the El Salvador Bitcoins administrators and reacts to their Bitcoin portfolios against the majority of bettors which means the El Salvador and the bookmakers in connection might be unfair.

But I can freely tell it that El Salvador can hold up to that amount of $1B in the stipulated time I'd they want as a federation. So the risk to bet on this event will be very high.

[coin-investor]

The odds are pretty interesting. Now Bukele has found out about this and seems to be hinting on social media. But do you genuinely believe El Salvador can magically get to a billion worth of bitcoin? They currently have over $700 Million. They would only need $300 million more. To me it seems a lot.

If they manage to reach $700 million, which is already a substantial amount, then they can also break into the $1 billion mark. They are motivated and do not consider the risks inherent in the cryptocurrency market.

$1 billion is a significant achievement; if they still have the funds, they will likely reach their goal and serve as an example to other countries that want Bitcoin to be part of their reserves. They can double the amount they stake if the market turns to their favour.

[Cantsay]

I don’t use polymarket because of some of the bets there which are against my moral beliefs, but for this current market that you brought here @Op.

I think there is a very high probability of El Salvador hitting that target or probably very close like $900 million or just a few million away from $1 billion - so those who are going to support El Salvador’s hitting that target are at an advantage than those who are against it because El Salvador aren’t just quiet about bitcoin; they are constantly making moves and if the movement continues like this they are sure to surpass that target.

[salad daging]

I don’t use polymarket because of some of the bets there which are against my moral beliefs, but for this current market that you brought here @Op.

I think there is a very high probability of El Salvador hitting that target or probably very close like $900 million or just a few million away from $1 billion - so those who are going to support El Salvador’s hitting that target are at an advantage than those who are against it because El Salvador aren’t just quiet about bitcoin; they are constantly making moves and if the movement continues like this they are sure to surpass that target.

I'm not familiar with betting on Polymarket and Kelshi, so I've never bet there, and betting there is a bit strange, contrary to my moral beliefs.

According to some of the comments above, El Salvador now has 700 million and still needs another 300 million to reach 1 billion but I don't know the exact amount right now however it is possible for a country to reach that target, but it depends on how the president handles it.

[livingfree]

Not sure if this should be under bitcoin topic or here lol. But there have been platforms, namely kalshi's prediction market and polymarket, have listed similar bets about El Salvador's bitcoin holdings. Both platforms have listed that El Salvador will have a total of $1 Billion worth of bitcoin by the end of 2025. The odds are pretty interesting. Now Bukele has found out about this and seems to be hinting on social media. But do you genuinely believe El Salvador can magically get to a billion worth of bitcoin? They currently have over $700 Million. They would only need $300 million more. To me it seems a lot. To a country like El Salvador, that isn't easy money either. Would you bet on this?

That's interesting.

They're the first one to adopt bitcoin as a legal tender and so, there could be some real money sitting there if Bukele tries to hit that or not.

He can silently bet under the bet of no, they can't make it. And does nothing until the end of this year. Or opt to make it and then tries to attract investors or lenders to come to him and let him do that.

[Ivystar5]

Not sure if this should be under bitcoin topic or here lol. But there have been platforms, namely kalshi's prediction market and polymarket, have listed similar bets about El Salvador's bitcoin holdings. Both platforms have listed that El Salvador will have a total of $1 Billion worth of bitcoin by the end of 2025. The odds are pretty interesting. Now Bukele has found out about this and seems to be hinting on social media. But do you genuinely believe El Salvador can magically get to a billion worth of bitcoin? They currently have over $700 Million. They would only need $300 million more. To me it seems a lot. To a country like El Salvador, that isn't easy money either. Would you bet on this?

Would not bet but I'm pretty sure El Salvador is getting there already maybe an additional accumulation will increase the already existing chances but if they only rely on the bitcoin they already have I guess they will be having 1 billion soon because we already in the last quarter of the year bitcoin is about to make something magical and the government already is  hoping bitcoin  save them so thous raising another 300 million to get there would seem like a challenge since they owe IMF but I'm pretty sure they will get there.

[terrific]

I'm not familiar with betting on Polymarket and Kelshi, so I've never bet there, and betting there is a bit strange, contrary to my moral beliefs.

According to some of the comments above, El Salvador now has 700 million and still needs another 300 million to reach 1 billion but I don't know the exact amount right now however it is possible for a country to reach that target, but it depends on how the president handles it.

They're also a gambling platform but they're more of the predictions. So, you bet on what might happen in the future.
While some of the bets there are seriously against the moral beliefs of many of us. Because some of the available bets there are about war.
And others that we definitely going to feel bad about it. For the amount of BTC that El Salvador owns, this website[1] show how much they have.
It is currently 6,246 BTC or estimated $701.90M.
[1] https://bitbo.io/treasuries/el-salvador/

[DPHOR]

From your post, if a country has secured 700 million dollars worth of Bitcoin what a heal is 300 million they wouldn't achieve?
To me this I possible to achieve it , it could be that the time frame is too close but certainly they must gained Bitcoin worth of 1 Billion dollars. From my little understanding, that particular country has a deep Love for Bitcoin and they not really ready to give up now rather they are keeping their energy burning to save up lot of Bitcoin in their possession.

[bias]

If you have the option that it would not reach that value by December and you wanted to place a bet, then that would be the best option, because I highly doubt that the president of El Salvador will buy $300 million worth of bitcoin by December and I also highly doubt that the price will be able to rise so much that the $700 million will pass $1 billion. That's why my betting option would be that it will not be able to reach $1 billion by December. I don't know if that option exists and what the odds will be at the moment for that option.

Yes, of course exists and you can win almost the same amount if you buy/bet on "No". Not to mention that you can sell any of your bets on any occasion/event/sport.😉

Would you bet on this?

Totally based on the bet odds as of now, it's a 50/50 chance. But since the difficulty of reaching that number is such a short time, I would take the risk and bet on the "No". Sounds more reasonable to my ears.

[retreat]

I don’t think they’ll be able to add another $300 million to their Bitcoin investment by the end of the year. They just secured a $1.4 billion loan from the IMF, and the agreement stipulated that they need to reduce their Bitcoin investment and maintain healthy and stable national finances. And since the loan is being disbursed gradually, they must manage their finances carefully and minimize their Bitcoin exposure to secure future loan disbursements. For this reason, the possibility of them adding another $300 million to their Bitcoin investment by the end of the year is almost impossible, as their financial activities are closely monitored by the IMF.

[Hispo]

Not sure if this should be under bitcoin topic or here lol. But there have been platforms, namely kalshi's prediction market and polymarket, have listed similar bets about El Salvador's bitcoin holdings. Both platforms have listed that El Salvador will have a total of $1 Billion worth of bitcoin by the end of 2025. The odds are pretty interesting. Now Bukele has found out about this and seems to be hinting on social media. But do you genuinely believe El Salvador can magically get to a billion worth of bitcoin? They currently have over $700 Million. They would only need $300 million more. To me it seems a lot. To a country like El Salvador, that isn't easy money either. Would you bet on this?

I would not go near to that market, honestly. It is easily manipulable by a single entity as the government of the El Salvador is...
Bukele could purposely bet on himself managing to get another three hundred million worth of Bitcoin and them proceed to buy that amount of money in Bitcoin, for the sake of getting all the money of bettors for himself and the government of his country. Once the person itself becomes aware of the bets being placed on him/her, it is not longer save to place money on it.

There are better markets if one desires to toss some dollars and see what happens... Bukele could feel too tempted to ignore this chance to get free money...

[suzanne5223]

My answer is that your question is yes, and no.
Yes, in fact that despite how huge the remaining $300 million investment in Bitcoin is for El Salvador to reach a billion dollar worth of Bitcoin holder, they can achieve the $300 million investment fund if they can boost their country's acceptance of BTC as payment, and also do something that will every crypto related businesses see El Salvador as the destination to visit relaxation, business, and fete of experiencing of the use of crypto in the real world.

I like that some casinos use the concept for a gambling experience.

[Alphakilo]

Not sure if this should be under bitcoin topic or here lol. But there have been platforms, namely kalshi's prediction market and polymarket, have listed similar bets about El Salvador's bitcoin holdings.

Prediction markets are growing and are catching the eyes of gamblers and non gamblers alike with very trendy predictions. This is not like a bet though and it is easy to make some money on this one. The data is everywhere and since the president of El Salvador knows of this, well I would say that he will do what is necessary to say in the news for all the right reasons.

Do I think El Salvador will get it? Yes. They will.

[$crypto$]

Just $300 million to get to $1 billion, I think that can be achieved before the end of 2025 but that's if the El Salvador government only wants to meet up with that target by the end of the year. What if the bet is even rigged, I mean if the betting platform secretly tell el Salvador not to buy more Bitcoin until after this year, just so that bettors can lose their bets. If it plays out fairly, I would bet on El Salvador holding to reach $1 billion before end of 2025 because I assume they can buy more Bitcoin before next year.

If the platform secretly cheats on its bets, it will ruin its own reputation in order to win bets, and it is impossible for them to do just that.

The news is that El Salvador has taken out a loan from the IMF. Could it be just for this purpose? I don't think so, because they know what they are going to do.
One way to reach $1 billion is with a drastic increase in BTC at the end of the year.

[laijsica]

Yes, it's a big gamble. When you have to guess the value of a country's total reserves of Bitcoin and bet on it, it can be confusing for a gambler. El Salvador President Nayib Bukele has accepted Bitcoin as legal tender and is regularly accumulating Bitcoin.
As the value of Bitcoin increases the value of the stack in his portfolio will increase enormously. If I were asked to participate in such a bet especially one based on speculation I would not be prepared to take the risk.