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Author Topic: Help me understand the August jobs report  (Read 72 times)
Vod (OP)
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September 07, 2025, 01:06:11 AM
 #1

The US apparently added 22,000 jobs in August, which apparently is as low as the pandemic numbers.   They scream the economy is in trouble because so few jobs are added.   I agree with that.   But I don't understand where the economy gained so many?

All we hear nowadays are people being laid off or deported.   Students weren't looking for jobs in Aug.  I'm sure there is some number trickery in there I don't understand.    Undecided

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franky1
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September 07, 2025, 01:21:20 AM
 #2

the number is the net aggregate

EG (demo numbers)
120,000 new roles minus 98,000 old roles removed from industries = 22,000
33,000 new roles minus 11,000 old roles removed from industries = 22,000

so it could be many new jobs, but then killing off many old trades(replaced by AI) or it could be not many new roles, but also not many job loses

back in the days of pandemic people were coming on and off employment social security due to remote/freelance jobs like ubereats, telesales replacing standard hospitality/tourism

just wait for october when the D.O.G.E actions of thinning the dead wood kicks in for federal employees that were given X months pay to leave in spring, but kept on as 'employed' until october

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September 07, 2025, 08:46:38 PM
 #3

The US apparently added 22,000 jobs in August, which apparently is as low as the pandemic numbers.   They scream the economy is in trouble because so few jobs are added.   I agree with that.   But I don't understand where the economy gained so many?

All we hear nowadays are people being laid off or deported.   Students weren't looking for jobs in Aug.  I'm sure there is some number trickery in there I don't understand.    Undecided

Most leftist political commentators point out this is nothing but a sign of economical deacceleration in the country and probably the beginning of more signs of a recession. On order to keep a growing economy, new jobds need to be added continuously and more production needs to be added as well. The population growth is steeping down and immigration as well, because of policies harbored by Trump, so the American economy cooling down it completely expected.
It will just matter of time untill MAGA economist cannot keep their delusion and admit their need immigrants to keep the machinery of the country going.

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September 08, 2025, 09:20:10 AM
 #4

Think of the jobs report as iceberg math. Payrolls are net hires minus quits/layoffs. Every month around 6M get hired and around 6M leave, +22k is just the cherry on top. Headlines about layoffs are just one slice, the hires rarely make news.

There are two instruments playing: the establishment survey (payrolls) and the household survey (employment/unemployment). These can disagree in any single month. Seasonals and revisions also matter -- August gets revised later; teachers, students, and temp work make the filters twitchy.

Population growth means you need ~150–200k a month just to tread water. I'd say +22k feels weak, not mysterious.
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September 08, 2025, 10:22:16 AM
 #5

the other thing to note, when its a good numeric stat.. the government tries to word it that the "government created X jobs"
when its a bad numeric stat, "industry is scaling back"

the fact is governments dont create majority of jobs. industry/retail private business does

but when government mess with taxes and employment restrictions. they affect the private businesses that want to grow/hire, so when government inflation causes a restriction on consumer spending ability. this negatively hurts businesses who then have to economise and replace personnel with PC's(AI)
and yes businesses independently decide to just economise the workforce purely to gain profit to spend on other business endeveurs and greed. so they too choose to replace personnel with AI

we are at the crucial point of where inflation where interest rates have not been lowered. meets with AI new tech that replaces employees, both culminating in a statistic that has not shown good jobs growth due to many lay off's/economising

however i still think the november release of the october results will be of more interest due to the public sector lay-offs

I DO NOT TRADE OR ACT AS ESCROW ON THIS FORUM EVER.
Please do your own research & respect what is written here as both researched opinion & information gleaned from experience. many people replying with insults but no on-topic content substance, automatically are 'facepalmed' and yawned at
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