Bear market in october?

[Dave1]

The problem with this guy is that he mixes a fact that would be more of a fundamental analysis, like this one, with his technical analysis. I would bet quite heavily that bitcoin will not fall to $50,000 as he predicts in one of his scenarios.

Anyone want to bet?

I don't know when the bear market will come but I believe it will happen in the future and once it happens bitcoin will be dumped and easily drop to 50k$-40k$.

And that is what he actually saying here, and just like the every else who has been in the market for so long. This is going to be the likely scenario. In 2026, the price will go down hard to $50k.

Many would argue that since the government and Wall Street institutions are already in the market, they would never let the price of bitcoin drop that much because it would not be in their interest. But in my opinion, they are in the market for profit and there is no regulation to prevent them from dumping the market. So even if the 4 year cycle is broken and once the bear season comes, bitcoin will still be dumped as usual.

That we really don't know as this is the first time that we have seen institution in the market, with their ETF and billions of dollars of investment. Can they control the market to not go down? Are the market going to be different now? Will there be supercycle as others have predicted?

So it's very hard to really predict because the market has change and open up in this bull market.

We even have a new all time high prior to the halving itself, that's why many thinks that this cycle could set a new pattern.

[Orpichukwu]

Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of crypto analytics platform Alphractal has made his assumptions clear as he shares his expectations of bitcoin. He noted how bitcoin has corrected 15% from its ATH already and if this continues we might see bitcoin start the bear market starting from next year. He also noted how this cycle can't be judged the same way as previous ones because of involvement of ETFs and other major investors. But we all know how in all previous years, the last quarter of the year is when bitcoin usually pumps. So the chance of bitcoin correcting and pumping next month is possible. Are you waiting for that pump? or have you already been affected by FUD?

Maybe my math is too bad; if not, the bitcoin price is not yet down up to 15% from its all-time high. It has touched there before, but with the current price, it's not close to a 15% drop, but that's not the case here though, and in the area where he talked about the bitcoin circle, it can't be followed like before. I agree with him; we have so much in play now, which can contribute to the bitcoin price, which was not there before. In the past, when making our prediction, we should not forget about those things.

[philipma1957]

Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of crypto analytics platform Alphractal has made his assumptions clear as he shares his expectations of bitcoin. He noted how bitcoin has corrected 15% from its ATH already and if this continues we might see bitcoin start the bear market starting from next year. He also noted how this cycle can't be judged the same way as previous ones because of involvement of ETFs and other major investors. But we all know how in all previous years, the last quarter of the year is when bitcoin usually pumps. So the chance of bitcoin correcting and pumping next month is possible. Are you waiting for that pump? or have you already been affected by FUD?

Maybe my math is too bad; if not, the bitcoin price is not yet down up to 15% from its all-time high. It has touched there before, but with the current price, it's not close to a 15% drop, but that's not the case here though, and in the area where he talked about the bitcoin circle, it can't be followed like before. I agree with him; we have so much in play now, which can contribute to the bitcoin price, which was not there before. In the past, when making our prediction, we should not forget about those things.

124.5x.85=105.825

so the op is wrong we did not drop 15%

124.5x.87=108.315 a bit more that 13% since the high

maybe we got to 107.8

right now we are 111k which is

124.5x.89=110.805 about 11%


so the op is off by a lot.

i have a question other than the covid flash crash the market has been up since late 2008.

so a 17 year streak of pretty good news.

and gold has been up since 2001 a 24 streak of good news.


so far btc has not been anywhere near 17 year up lifts or 24 year uplifts.

so maybe we are about to witness a five or six or seven or eight year upstreak for btc.

and the so called bear is nowhere in sight for a long time.


why post negative garbage because one day it will happen.

based on that we should all jump off a tall building since we are all going to die one day.

[tabas]

So the chance of bitcoin correcting and pumping next month is possible. Are you waiting for that pump? or have you already been affected by FUD?

I am not affected by any FUD this time. We're in a bull run, and it's still firm. Whether it goes back to $120k+ or not, the price remains stronger than last year. And if there is FUD that will come out ,then usually it is for someone else's gain and interest. Don't be too soft with any FUD that comes out, most especially if it's about the prices, because they'll play out with your emotions. I'm still waiting for the next round of pump and that's probably the reason why I am still optimistic before this bull run ends although I think we still have several months before it does end.

[STT]

Defining bear market by 15% or similar move is an attempt to be too precise and quick to judge.   15% can happen in a day is the Bitcoin Im more familiar with which makes me think trying to judge it so finely is going to lead to false conclusions.

BTC could pull back the entire month of October and I wouldn't especially believe it to be negative overall.  Price to me is a secondary indicator of strength it matters but its more of a reflection of stronger factors elsewhere.
  Price is decided in the market by bids and offers and if it just so happens on one day everyone turns the same direction then its a big sell the price will move alot but it doesn't have to mean more then any other price being correct or not, we can assume too much certainty in a plain number & prices can vary in accuracy so context matters.

[Free Market Capitalist]

BTC could pull back the entire month of October and I wouldn't especially believe it to be negative overall.  Price to me is a secondary indicator of strength it matters but its more of a reflection of stronger factors elsewhere.

I'm not so sure about that. At this point in the cycle, the price should really start to take off. If we have a kind of sideways September and in October the price drops 15%, we will be in uncharted territory where it is not clear why, at this point in the cycle, the ATH of the previous cycle has not been doubled, especially with all the institutional demand that there is.

It should be remembered that, according to previous cycles, the peak would have been reached in December/January, and from then on, the price would have fallen. This cycle does not have to repeat the previous ones, but if it does not, that is why I say that we would find ourselves in uncharted territory.

[mich]

Well I do not think we will be entering a 'bear market' in this next month of October. Maybe we will not see a 'bull market' but I do think price of Bitcoin will stay where it is.

There is alot of support at 110k. And right now price is 111k and Bitcoin did see gains in this week. I did read there is a bottom target of 50k for the next month. But I do not think we will see a price like that.

[LogitechMouse]

---
He also noted how this cycle can't be judged the same way as previous ones because of involvement of ETFs and other major investors. But we all know how in all previous years, the last quarter of the year is when bitcoin usually pumps. So the chance of bitcoin correcting and pumping next month is possible. Are you waiting for that pump? or have you already been affected by FUD?

Well, I will throw back what he said to us. We can't judge the same way as the previous ones, so there's also a chance that the last quarter of the year might be the start of the bear market just like what he said.

On the flip side, I'm leaning towards the fact that the final quarter of the year will be a bullish one especially during the month of October where Bitcoin is very bullish during this month in all of the bull run years (2013, 2017 & 2021). I'm still waiting for the FED cutting down interest rates then from there, I will make a short term decision on what will I do with my assets. TBH, I might be selling some during the final week of September and all throughout October, and will keep some for November and December.

Overall, I'm still waiting for that pump to happen, but we need a catalyst for that to happen. WSJ said that we might see the FED cutting down interest rates TWICE, and that might be the catalyst that we are waiting.

[Zanab247]

Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of crypto analytics platform Alphractal has made his assumptions clear as he shares his expectations of bitcoin. He noted how bitcoin has corrected 15% from its ATH already and if this continues we might see bitcoin start the bear market starting from next year. He also noted how this cycle can't be judged the same way as previous ones because of involvement of ETFs and other major investors. But we all know how in all previous years, the last quarter of the year is when bitcoin usually pumps.

I will not doubt the prediction of Joao wedson toward next month prediction , because the sign of the bear is spreading already for people to know that bear run is approach to hit the market. Even this rising and falling of BTC price people are seeing right now, will not make the price of BTC to pump higher above the price we have seen in the bull run, because the green light is no longer stable like the way it was stable for the price to cross above $123k few months ago.

People will continue to involve in BTC investment, because they know that there will be bear and bull market that will give them the opportunity to achieve their goal from BTC. For those waiting for October bear market, I guess it will surely come to pass for the price to dump below $89k for both long time investors and short time investors to buy again and hodl for bull market to occur before they can sell to earn profit.

[irhact]

But we all know how in all previous years, the last quarter of the year is when bitcoin usually pumps. So the chance of bitcoin correcting and pumping next month is possible. Are you waiting for that pump? or have you already been affected by FUD?

The last quarter of the year in a bull market year is supposed to be the period inwhich Bitcoin starts pumping and making we investors profits but with the rate in which the market has being bearish recently, I can't say if the bull market is going to start from October or not. The market has been so confusing recently that I don't know how to make predictions again. Right now what I'm just doing is waiting on the market to give us it's own directions without trying to predict it. It doesn't matter how long it takes, the bull market will definitely happen and that's the only hope I have and that's why I'm still hodling.

[EarnOnVictor]

, founder and CEO of crypto analytics platform Alphractal has made his assumptions clear as he shares his expectations of bitcoin. He noted how bitcoin has corrected 15% from its ATH already and if this continues we might see bitcoin start the bear market starting from next year. He also noted how this cycle can't be judged the same way as previous ones because of involvement of ETFs and other major investors. But we all know how in all previous years, the last quarter of the year is when bitcoin usually pumps. So the chance of bitcoin correcting and pumping next month is possible. Are you waiting for that pump? or have you already been affected by FUD?

Joao Wedson should be disregarded on this, and this is not the first time he has missed in his predictions. I tell you, these guys are regular people like you and me, but they are merely privileged to have the resources and popularity. As for me, for now, Bitcoin is too indecisive to be accurately predicted. And if I may ask you, hasn't the bearish retracement you mentioned that was supposed to happen in October already happened in August till date? Bitcoin's selling from about $125,500 to almost $107,000 is no joke. What should we call that?

[Tmoonz]

Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of crypto analytics platform Alphractal has made his assumptions clear as he shares his expectations of bitcoin. He noted how bitcoin has corrected 15% from its ATH already and if this continues we might see bitcoin start the bear market starting from next year. He also noted how this cycle can't be judged the same way as previous ones because of involvement of ETFs and other major investors. But we all know how in all previous years, the last quarter of the year is when bitcoin usually pumps. So the chance of bitcoin correcting and pumping next month is possible. Are you waiting for that pump? or have you already been affected by FUD?

It is only certain that historical statistics might not necessarily repeat itself and this is kind saying that the market has flexibilities to adapt to innovative changes in the overall Bitcoin ecosystem, we can only anticipate the possibility of pumping next month but there is still no guarantee, am not waiting for the pump because it will happen when it will and might not be when we are expecting it, for the majority of us that are still very early in our accumulation journey thinking long term is the best rather than been affected by fear of uncertainty.

[Out of mind]

Since the market has been growing steadily and has created a new one. Moreover, the market is still at a high point and we are expecting the market to pump a lot again. But if it happens that there is a possibility of a decline in the market towards the end of the year, then it may go down as we have seen in the past years. I think that the Bitcoin market may move to create another new ATH next month, and then the market is more likely to move down. Many are waiting to see Bitcoin's highest high again and many have planned to sell their funds.

[traderethereum]

That could happen. But I don't panic if that happens next month or next year. That will be good because I can start saving Bitcoin and have a good chance of having many Bitcoins.

I am still waiting for the pumping of the Bitcoin price and still guess that it will happen soon. If that does not happen by the end of this year, it could happen in the first quarter or second quarter. Then, we will see the bear market coming.

I don't get affected by FUD but I search for my benefit from the situation. So I can adapt to the situation and take advantage of that.

[Oshosondy]

do you really know it will happen?

do you posses time travel?

are you certain that the four year cycle will stand?

I am only speculating and I do not only just want to believe what I read about analysts and other people saying that there will not be bear market. I still think bitcoin is mostly made up of people that are buying it directly and ETFs. I mean people that might later sell it for bear market to occur. But may be wrong because I am not God and I do not know the future.

[As-Soon-As]

I don't know when the bear market will start, but I believe that the price of Bitcoin will be dumped, but many investors will use this dumping opportunity to hold Bitcoin. Currently, everyone from small Bitcoin investors to high-level Bitcoin investors are holding Bitcoin. The MST company that I have seen is making the biggest purchases, usually when the price of Bitcoin is dumped a little, they and other large investors are holding Bitcoin and that for a long time.
So the possibility of dumping the price of Bitcoin is very low, so I can say that the bear market may start, but this is the biggest opportunity for investors to hold.

[Iranus]

I think that the Bitcoin market may move to create another new ATH next month, and then the market is more likely to move down. Many are waiting to see Bitcoin's highest high again and many have planned to sell their funds.

Or the opposite can also happen, Bitcoin has peaked and the bear season is quietly coming without us even knowing it.

To be fair, it's hard to know what will happen next, but if we base it on the 4-year market cycle, the bull season is less than 2 months away. Therefore, predictions of a bear season, or that Bitcoin has peaked, are becoming more and more common, and they are not wrong. We should take note of that instead of stubbornly denying them completely.

[cxtreenal]

Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of crypto analytics platform Alphractal has made his assumptions clear as he shares his expectations of bitcoin. He noted how bitcoin has corrected 15% from its ATH already and if this continues we might see bitcoin start the bear market starting from next year. He also noted how this cycle can't be judged the same way as previous ones because of involvement of ETFs and other major investors. But we all know how in all previous years, the last quarter of the year is when bitcoin usually pumps. So the chance of bitcoin correcting and pumping next month is possible. Are you waiting for that pump? or have you already been affected by FUD?

I think Bitcoin price will be a little less aggressive this month, but the aggressive trend will start from October and the upward trend may continue until the end of this year. Institutions and individuals who predict Bitcoin price can never say for sure and continue their analysis based on speculation, but based on my own analysis, I do not foresee a significant decline.

The possibility of the global economy going into a recession as a result of world trade and war is very low because the war situation between Ukraine and Russia is more likely to stop and the instability in the Middle East will not affect the Bitcoin market in a negative way. Based on previous analysis, it can be said with almost certainty that Bitcoin price will exceed several more ATH in October and November.

[imamusma]

That could happen. But I don't panic if that happens next month or next year. That will be good because I can start saving Bitcoin and have a good chance of having many Bitcoins.

I am still waiting for the pumping of the Bitcoin price and still guess that it will happen soon. If that does not happen by the end of this year, it could happen in the first quarter or second quarter. Then, we will see the bear market coming.

I don't get affected by FUD but I search for my benefit from the situation. So I can adapt to the situation and take advantage of that.

I agree, we don’t need to panic even though Bitcoin experiences a correction, this is nothing new or surprising. What we should do is be patient and continue adopting it according to our own capacity. For now, Bitcoin price has started to slightly recover after experiencing a correction of around 15% from its ATH, and it is now trading around 112K. I’m optimistic that in this cycle Bitcoin can reach 120K again or even surpass its ATH. October might be the peak of the rally, but Bitcoin could also move sideways, anything is possible.

[virasog]

Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of crypto analytics platform Alphractal has made his assumptions clear as he shares his expectations of bitcoin. He noted how bitcoin has corrected 15% from its ATH already and if this continues we might see bitcoin start the bear market starting from next year. He also noted how this cycle can't be judged the same way as previous ones because of involvement of ETFs and other major investors. But we all know how in all previous years, the last quarter of the year is when bitcoin usually pumps. So the chance of bitcoin correcting and pumping next month is possible. Are you waiting for that pump? or have you already been affected by FUD?

Are you saying that the bear market will trigger from next month October ? I don't think that is possible. Bitcoin hasn't topped out yet and still there is real altseason still to come before we will experience a below off top. There are still a few months before all this will trigger so we cannot expect the bear market from next month or so.

I do not believe in these personalities, especially when they predict the bitcoin prices. Usually, what they say, the opposite of that happens