Bear market in october?

[dumpsterhawk]

Most of the work by analysts is meaningless. They are not talked about in the media like serious people, it is hot air and random predictions which are completed from previous cycles and dates. Analyst make new predictions every week, how much of their work is accurate?

You are one of the few people here who understands it.

I agree with the statement that the ETF and institutional involvements in bitcoin will definitely make this years bull run to be different and it is already happening as there are indications already that signifies that this years bull run is definitely a bit different, Although it hasn’t actually swayed away from the historical trend but there are things that are making it deter a little bit away, like the month of August ending bearish. One key thing is that this institutions involvement will be heavily affecting the market volatility rather than anything but most historical events will still be unchanged. This is part of the reason why most people think that we could even have an extended bull run as institutions wouldn’t be selling easily

Your post does not make sense to me. You say that indicators are saying that the bull run is different, but at the same time you say that it is not different from the historical trend. Make up your mind, you can't have both. The chart shows quite a strong resemblance to the previous runs, not all details of the bull run have to be the same for it to not really be different.

[Zaguru12]

I agree with the statement that the ETF and institutional involvements in bitcoin will definitely make this years bull run to be different and it is already happening as there are indications already that signifies that this years bull run is definitely a bit different, Although it hasn’t actually swayed away from the historical trend but there are things that are making it deter a little bit away, like the month of August ending bearish. One key thing is that this institutions involvement will be heavily affecting the market volatility rather than anything but most historical events will still be unchanged. This is part of the reason why most people think that we could even have an extended bull run as institutions wouldn’t be selling easily

Your post does not make sense to me. You say that indicators are saying that the bull run is different, but at the same time you say that it is not different from the historical trend. Make up your mind, you can't have both. The chart shows quite a strong resemblance to the previous runs, not all details of the bull run have to be the same for it to not really be different.

Alright I think you need to re read the bolded statement where i said it has not yet actually swayed away from the historical trend we usually use to have. My reply was to actually a quoted post looking at the changes that the ETF or institutions have caused to this platforms and I was like they have affected it a bit with the bull run not volatile or bullish as it use to because in the past we could actually see high volatility but right now there isn’t those highs with months like August which are usually bullish in bull run year turning out different this year.

But even with the not so high volatility the bull run is still happening this year and that is simply following historical trend, so I don’t understand what doesn’t make sense to you, probably read the post I quoted first

[STT]

September seems like it will be positive at least, 114k then 115k to prove and if failing that badly then perhaps the negative extrapolation to October would be fair case scenario.
   If we break past the 50 day average and make for an improvement such that the 50DMA is turned into positive ascension again inside of this decline then we should be changing our mind.   First this time then we'll get some proper directions as to the future near term.  Further out I believe BTC  will gain more but needs confirmation.

[BTCETFInvestor]

Let's turn this subject title around! Instead of Bear market in october? -  let's make it BULL market in October? 

[Zigabel]

Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of crypto analytics platform Alphractal has made his assumptions clear as he shares his expectations of bitcoin. He noted how bitcoin has corrected 15% from its ATH already and if this continues we might see bitcoin start the bear market starting from next year. He also noted how this cycle can't be judged the same way as previous ones because of involvement of ETFs and other major investors. But we all know how in all previous years, the last quarter of the year is when bitcoin usually pumps. So the chance of bitcoin correcting and pumping next month is possible. Are you waiting for that pump? or have you already been affected by FUD?

The circle this time has really moved differently and i cannot agree any less with what Wedson has said with his analysis, ordinarily by the normal cycle we should still be in a ascending pump but it happens that the market be moving sideways and getting many out because of the volatility and the corrective bear move over the week if not months now. personally i am still waiting for the pump because i believe that before the end of October ew should  be up above $130k if the bulls comes in but it is very much worthy of note that it will take some time for Bitcoin to going back to actually respecting its usual cycle we had know it for all this years, or possibly it may even modify its cycle and not move in the exact same way we do see it move before now due to the increase adoption and the interference of ETFs which is actual to the advantage.

This is a very good time to make some buys and HOLD because in the expected time of Pump, buying at that time may not be the best due to the high market price at which you will be buying but if eventually you happen to buy at that time you have to make sure to have you eyes on the market to see the moves and know when to exit and take profit so you don't end up loosing to the market after buying at a very high price.

[Awaklara]

So the chance of bitcoin correcting and pumping next month is possible. Are you waiting for that pump? or have you already been affected by FUD?

We are entering the second week of this month, and the market situation is still good with not many price changes. A decrease in prices or a price spike could happen next month because we see that when movements tend to be sideways for several weeks, there is a possibility we will see a price spike afterwards.
But I think if there is a strong price spike, it may not be much higher than the previous ATH. The same goes for a decrease, it may not be as severe as the bear market we saw before. Whatever happens, I am still considering holding onto my Bitcoin.

[Aanuoluwatofunmi]

Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of crypto analytics platform Alphractal has made his assumptions clear as he shares his expectations of bitcoin. He noted how bitcoin has corrected 15% from its ATH already and if this continues we might see bitcoin start the bear market starting from next year.

I may not doubt about this, because we have already been on a look for how long this season is going to take for the bullrun to remained sustained and when the next season for bear market will launch, this has been what some have already predicted that the market bear may be towards the end of the year or next year after we might have seen the last all time high for the season.

[Accardo]

I may not doubt about this, because we have already been on a look for how long this season is going to take for the bullrun to remained sustained and when the next season for bear market will launch, this has been what some have already predicted that the market bear may be towards the end of the year or next year after we might have seen the last all time high for the season.

The bull did well at resisting the bear, political dramas are yet to slow down around Bitcoin, also, world powers have cryptocurrency in the middle of their lips for multiple reasons and just few hours ago I saw on X that the Russians are worried about US trying to use crypto to excape their $30 trillion worth of loan. The bear season won't have much resistant to the bull, the price fall will be more moderate, because the positive slope on Bitcoin is quite high, more strong officials one way or another add Bitcoin to the subjects of their speech in world politics, hopefully Bitcoin price would sit comfortably at the 100k margin during the next bear market.

[el kaka22]

October seems too quick. I mean it sounds easier if we could end up with a bit later, maybe December? October seems like the moment we can break above the all time high and reach a higher level. That seems like a better chance and shouldn't be that complicated considering what we are seeing.

Of course this isn't really what we are looking for right now, but we are doing a good job holding at the moment, even if we end up with holding stronger then we can get a better job. If that keeps happening then we are going to start going back up again, and we should not be worried about it it. So, do not be worried about it and just keep holding and we should be seeing a better return. Most of the time it is not going to be a trouble for any of us.

[Wakate]

September seems like it will be positive at least, 114k then 115k to prove and if failing that badly then perhaps the negative extrapolation to October would be fair case scenario.
   If we break past the 50 day average and make for an improvement such that the 50DMA is turned into positive ascension again inside of this decline then we should be changing our mind.   First this time then we'll get some proper directions as to the future near term.  Further out I believe BTC  will gain more but needs confirmation.

The market is already in a circular manipulation and you don't have to take a long trade if anyone is trading with few bucks. Traders with big funds are the ones entering the market because they have successfully liquidate other traders that could not leave the market when they saw the red sign of a drawdown in price.
Big market providers have started buying gradually although is like the momentum is not yet massive due to the previous loses some had encountered while other are still waiting to verify if this is a good time to go long or to observe the noise if it's will continue a new bullish part.

[virasog]

Let's turn this subject title around! Instead of Bear market in october? -  let's make it BULL market in October? 

Yeah, that's what everyone is hoping for, that is to see the bull market starting from October, and hopefully it remains throughout the fourth quarter of this year. I think we are in the bull market that will be extended for few months. Not many are talking about it, but the key difference of this cycle from the previous cycle is the "Time Extension and Price Suppression" theory.

If we analyze this cycle, we will find that the price is suppressed for most cryptocurrencies, mainly for the altcoins. We cannot have the end of the bull market with the altseason as for the cycle reset, the bitcoin dominance has to drop and then we may see some real gains in overall cryptos.

[arabspaceship123]

October is happening next month. How many people believe the market will be bear in October. If you follow the cycle you will know how analysts work. The data is available you do not need analysts to tell you when the market will be bear.

[sunsilk]

October is happening next month. How many people believe the market will be bear in October. If you follow the cycle you will know how analysts work. The data is available you do not need analysts to tell you when the market will be bear.

It's a month where mostly a bull will trigger than a bear. These people just want to give everyone an idea that they shouldn't invest.

And that's because it's only for them to take care of everything and have the profits won't scatter to a lot of people.

Like today, many alts have been pumping lately and once the profits of these people flows again to Bitcoin which is most likely what everyone is planning to do.

We'd see that this kind of prediction is only done for their sole and personal purpose and not to give everyone an idea on what they should prepare for instead.

[adaseb]

I dont know whether we will have a bear or bull market but I am expecting that in late October and early November there will be tons of volaility. Either we break the ATH and head into new highs or we will break the weekly support and head lower below the $100K.

There is too much economic events. We might get rate cuts which is bullish but at the same time inflation is still bad and the economy seems to be stalling according to the job numbers. You still got issues with the tariffs and Trump is always finding ways to move the markets.

So it will be a very intersting fourth quarter to say the least.

[lionheart78]

He noted how bitcoin has corrected 15% from its ATH already and if this continues we might see bitcoin start the bear market starting from next year. He also noted how this cycle can't be judged the same way as previous ones because of involvement of ETFs and other major investors.

Yes, but do you think this is bearish or bullish? Because I think it's quite bullish. If this were the case, the price should moon, because those institutional players are buying in large quantities to HODL.

With the current movement of the market, it looks like Bitcoin is aiming for another record breaking ATH, so I am somehow leaning to bullish market for Bitcoin.  I do not feel that the market is transitioning to bearish market this October.

The problem with this guy is that he mixes a fact that would be more of a fundamental analysis, like this one, with his technical analysis. I would bet quite heavily that bitcoin will not fall to $50,000 as he predicts in one of his scenarios.

Anyone want to bet?

I don't dare to bet since the bitcoin market is too volatile and there are lots of factor to be considered, which is I am not confident about putting a bet with  .  If we are talking about next year's October Bitcoin price of $50k, I believe the guy made his speculation on the historic record of Bitcoin price, where the October of the next year after the ATH plummets to an average of 66.67% (from the current ATH, which is $124,128 decline of 66.67% equals $41,371).  So this is not a random speculation, but rather according to the data of Bitcoin price record's pattern.

[Bitcoin_people]

Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of crypto analytics platform Alphractal has made his assumptions clear as he shares his expectations of bitcoin. He noted how bitcoin has corrected 15% from its ATH already and if this continues we might see bitcoin start the bear market starting from next year. He also noted how this cycle can't be judged the same way as previous ones because of involvement of ETFs and other major investors. But we all know how in all previous years, the last quarter of the year is when bitcoin usually pumps. So the chance of bitcoin correcting and pumping next month is possible. Are you waiting for that pump? or have you already been affected by FUD?

I think the market may come down in October, but it is not yet possible to predict how low the market will go. If this guy is making such a prediction, I think it may not happen, but if the market goes down in October, it may come to $100k. But the way he analyzed it, it may not be possible because it is not that easy to go down to $50k because the market is in a bullish state. However, many people are predicting what level the market will reach, and I think the market will not dump much in October.

[Marvell1]

It's hard to know when bear season will come but we need to be realistic that it's inevitable. No market goes up in a straight line and bitcoin or cryptocurrency is just a financial market and it follows that rule too.

If it doesn't come this quarter, it will come next year. So in my opinion, if people's goal is profit and want to reinvest in the bearish season, taking profit is never wrong because we will not be able to know where the peak of the cycle is.


Also, those who believe in cycle 4 should not be complacent because historically, bear season will come in this fourth quarter.

[cryptomaniac_xxx]

It's hard to know when bear season will come but we need to be realistic that it's inevitable. No market goes up in a straight line and bitcoin or cryptocurrency is just a financial market and it follows that rule too.

If it doesn't come this quarter, it will come next year. So in my opinion, if people's goal is profit and want to reinvest in the bearish season, taking profit is never wrong because we will not be able to know where the peak of the cycle is.


Also, those who believe in cycle 4 should not be complacent because historically, bear season will come in this fourth quarter.

If we think that we are in the bull run, then obviously, there are no concern for us as the price could really take off in the last 3 months or so.

But the problem is that there are too predictions out there that we didn't know what are the intentions. I know that it's just predictions but there are entities that have their own narrative on going to the media and say that we are in the bear market or this is what X price will be and that it's the end of the bull run.

So let's see, we are still on track for the 4 year cycle and if that is true then 2025 is still in the bull run.

[Pandu Geddon]

I think the market may come down in October, but it is not yet possible to predict how low the market will go. If this guy is making such a prediction, I think it may not happen, but if the market goes down in October, it may come to $100k. But the way he analyzed it, it may not be possible because it is not that easy to go down to $50k because the market is in a bullish state. However, many people are predicting what level the market will reach, and I think the market will not dump much in October.

If there is a decline in October, I am also confident that the decline is not a transition to a bear market. What might happen is not much different from the corrections we usually see. There is even a possibility that the market does not fall in October but experiences a slight increase. But we will wait to see if Bitcoin can reach a price spike once again this month or if there is indeed a trend change.

[BABY SHOES]

We don't know if October will be a bear market. Uhh, a famous figure who talks about bitcoin will correct in October. He's like a psychic just by looking at the data at a glance, but actually we're not sure October will be bearish.

We're quite sure it will be bullish in the future even though the price is currently declining... or sideways for a long time, although we have to say that bearish later on is okay, maybe it's time.

Now let's just think positively that bitcoin will be bullish.