Poland should reserve the right to down Ruzzian drones over western Ukraine

[paxmao]

There are some sources stating that Ruzzia sent more than 10 drones in East Poland. If that is true, what would be the right NATO response?

Since some Ruzzian drones ended in Poland, it seems like the right moment to have a NATO backed "drone exclusion" zone 100 km from the Polish border - even over Ukranian airspace.

It would be the right response as Ruzzia either attacks Poland voluntarely or they need "help" keeping their drones in the right place. Well, the right place will be in their arses, but you know what I mean.

[franky1]

most countries only have a 24mile zone before its open "international" area. so a 100km no-go zone is not gonna happen
i think you are picking a number based on the barrier between atmosphere vs space. rather than some military/maritime barrier of diplomacy and territory control

as for poland needing nato to swoop in.. poland should have its own defence.
russia/nato relations do not exist, russia is not in nato so russia does not need to listen to any nato orders. this would have to be a UN thing

obviously to legally protect itself (should a drone owner(russia) cry foul of a bad shoot/damage/declaration of war..) poland would need to have done some kind of investigation to declare good reason to shoot it down. EG it came within polish borders.. if poland said it was 100km away from poland, russia could call it a message from poland declaring war on russia.. which would be a bad case to initiate

again poland could if spotting a foreign drone within polish borders would have to surveil it and decide if its an actual viable threat, and then shoot it down. if not a threat or in international space or other things then poland can just watch and report and gather more evidence to strengthen viability for future incursions to be probable threats

[Lida93]

I also heard about this information in one of our local news channel and in my thinking I was like this is a show of might from Russia having their drones hover over the Poland airspace. An action that goes against international policy which can escalate the situation of the existing war.

On the other hand, Israel recently made an attack on HAMAS leadership on the Qatar soil in the middle of an ongoing negotiation that was being handled by the Qatar authority. This another action just like that of Russia drone over Poland airspace that also goes against international policy and can be taken as a slap on Qatar's face by Israel.

As a neutral entity who wishes to air his views on the two events, I am thinking that the US regime of Donald Trump isn't helping in genuinely trying to make for peace in this different waring zones. Where sanctions are meted on Israel for certain violations of international extant laws and even the UN do nothing about it but only makes statements condemning the act and it ends there, and Russia under Vladimir Putin watching what's happening would feel that he can act in his own might on the neighbouring countries without considering what the consequences are, because if Israel could always get away with theirs then why can't Russia.

I think the US and UN are not doing enough genuinely in their supposed efforts in finding a lasting peace in these regions and they've to do better otherwise we will continue having these similar events unfolding which can lead to a WW, God forbid.
These are just my thoughts though.

[paxmao]

most countries only have a 24mile zone before its open "international" area. so a 100km no-go zone is not gonna happen
i think you are picking a number based on the barrier between atmosphere vs space. rather than some military/maritime barrier of diplomacy and territory control


[...]

if poland said it was 100km away from poland, russia could call it a message from poland declaring war on russia.. which would be a bad case to initiate

All that international law is exactly what Ruzzia violated. Do you fail to realize this is a proportional response to an act of war? Of course Ruzzia does not have to follow "instructions", the drones would be destroyed from Poland over Ukraine - so Ruzzia is effectively not attacked. Unless Ruzzia wants to claim sovereignty over any bit of airspace they occupy with an unmanned flying bomb.

You do not attack Ruzzia - so no escalation, but you can perfectly agree with Ukraine to accept this and destroy drones over Ukraine, which cannot be classed as "escalation" as Ruzzia or Ruzzian assets are not destroyed.

You need some distance to intercept a drone, 100 km is good enough, but if you want 200 or 300. If Ruzzia decides to send a ballistic missile then 500 km I guess.

Again poland could if spotting a foreign drone within polish borders would have to surveil it and decide if its an actual viable threat, and then shoot it down. if not a threat or in international space or other things then poland can just watch and report and gather more evidence to strengthen viability for future incursions to be probable threats

Yes that is correct. They will assess the threat and based on previous experiences, anything getting 100 km from the border is a threat.

I also heard about this information in one of our local news channel and in my thinking I was like this is a show of might from Russia having their drones hover over the Poland airspace. An action that goes against international policy which can escalate the situation of the existing war.

On the other hand, Israel recently made an attack on HAMAS leadership on the Qatar soil in the middle of an ongoing negotiation that was being handled by the Qatar authority. This another action just like that of Russia drone over Poland airspace that also goes against international policy and can be taken as a slap on Qatar's face by Israel.

As a neutral entity who wishes to air his views on the two events, I am thinking that the US regime of Donald Trump isn't helping in genuinely trying to make for peace in this different waring zones. Where sanctions are meted on Israel for certain violations of international extant laws and even the UN do nothing about it but only makes statements condemning the act and it ends there, and Russia under Vladimir Putin watching what's happening would feel that he can act in his own might on the neighbouring countries without considering what the consequences are, because if Israel could always get away with theirs then why can't Russia.

I think the US and UN are not doing enough genuinely in their supposed efforts in finding a lasting peace in these regions and they've to do better otherwise we will continue having these similar events unfolding which can lead to a WW, God forbid.
These are just my thoughts though.

Ruzzia hit a building, it was not "flying over".

The UN is at this point unoperative - there is no enforcing capability.

Regarding Israel, I agree that they cannot legally attack a foreign country without a declaration of war.

The real solutions are the agreements for disarmament from all sides, but that is currently impossible.

[franky1]

Again poland could if spotting a foreign drone within polish borders would have to surveil it and decide if its an actual viable threat, and then shoot it down. if not a threat or in international space or other things then poland can just watch and report and gather more evidence to strengthen viability for future incursions to be probable threats

Yes that is correct. They will assess the threat and based on previous experiences,
..
Regarding Israel, I agree that they cannot legally attack a foreign country without a declaration of war.

The real solutions are the agreements for disarmament from all sides, but that is currently impossible.

declarations of war are towards the country(government, military, citizens as intended targets) that the strike happened in. however there are other laws that allow "pre-emptive strikes" "military actions" and such, to take out specific intended targets that are not part of the wider host nation.. without it leading or needing a declaration of war, if such strike has significant military defence strategy and mitigating risk/loss of the host country housing the military threat that was a intended target different to the host nation, it can be deemed as a pre-emptive strike/"military action" and not lead to war. especially (emphasis) when the intended targets of the strike were not that of citizens nor military nor government of the host country the targets hide in

[LTU_btc]

There is some possibility that these drones were jammed by Ukrainian REB systems and they accidentally went into Poland.
But I think it's not very likely. Russia is just testing Poland's reaction. And IMO, reaction wasn't great. There is different numbers, but most resources says that Poland managed to shoot down only 4 drones from 19. And they used very expensive rockets for these cheap drones.
And I'm afraid that after this attack nothing won't change. I don't believe that Poland is going to start shooting drones in Western Ukraine.

[franky1]

There is some possibility that these drones were jammed by Ukrainian REB systems and they accidentally went into Poland.

get a map!
poland is not beside russia, it was not a simple bad turn from russian border or bad turn from ukraine due to jamming.. there is belarus and lithuania/latvia buffering poland away from russia..

if anything it could be russia using the baltic sea as incursion border and hopes to then go south east unnoticed over poland to enter ukraine.. or go noticed to poke/provoke poland (one drone found inn olesno(north poland (near baltic sea))

..
the drones were not that of military/weaponised drones. but more so wood/foam decoy drones*. so not really a threat to poland.. more of just a psychological poke

*the drones were Chinese-designed 'Gerbera' drones, but used before by russia and have Cyrillic alphabet and numeric printed on them (not chinese)

[BADecker]

First, are we sure it was Russia? There have been many downed Russian drones in Ukraine. With a little adaptation, Ukraine could be the one who resurrected and then sent these drones into Poland, afterward blaming Russia.


There are only two things that keep any country or anybody from doing whatever they want:
1. Lack of strength to do it;
2. Their honoring of their agreements - written or unwritten - with others to NOT do it.

Depending on who they have agreements with, and the details of the agreements, this could take some time to determine. They need to hash over the wording and the intent (spirit) of the agreements.


If it was indeed Russia that sent the drones on purpose... Russia doesn't do this without provocation. Since Poland seems to be sending troops to fight in Ukraine against Russia, Poland has set itself up to be an enemy of Russia. If Poland hasn't done this directly, they need to monitor their borders better, to keep Polish mercenaries from going into Ukraine, at least through the Polish-Ukraine borders.

[paxmao]

Poland has now started shoting drones, locations to be confirmed.

There is some possibility that these drones were jammed by Ukrainian REB systems and they accidentally went into Poland.

get a map!
poland is not beside russia, it was not a simple bad turn from russian border or bad turn from ukraine due to jamming.. there is belarus and lithuania/latvia buffering poland away from russia..

if anything it could be russia using the baltic sea as incursion border and hopes to then go south east unnoticed over poland to enter ukraine.. or go noticed to poke/provoke poland (one drone found inn olesno(north poland (near baltic sea))

..
the drones were not that of military/weaponised drones. but more so wood/foam decoy drones*. so not really a threat to poland.. more of just a psychological poke

*the drones were Chinese-designed 'Gerbera' drones, but used before by russia and have Cyrillic alphabet and numeric printed on them (not chinese)

Are you deliberately being obtuse? Drone flies over wester Ukraine, gets jammed, goes Poland.

[tvbcof]

Russia could (and should) fly chainsaw-engined plywood decoys all around EU countries, maybe with a few accidental intrusions from time to time due to 'jamming' or whatever.  Then they should laugh like hyenas when NATO countries spend what money they have left on 'defenses' which cost 20 times what they are worth and must be purchased from the Americans.  Russia/US could play that game all day long.

[franky1]

Are you deliberately being obtuse? Drone flies over wester Ukraine, gets jammed, goes Poland.

are you obtuse..
so they are(in your view) able to fly into ukraine, from the east border with russia. get jammed.. and instead of crashing or running out of fuel.. continue through ukraine for 800 miles. never shot down by any military in ukraine. just continue on. continue on.. and then once in poland suddenly they are spotted where some are shot down and some just crash.. and some make it all the way up north(many more hundreds of miles)..

i dont think you ar really trying to think about it. but just wanting to post-repeat whatever you seen on social media, which link to limited investigated reports from news media.

maybe try to join some dots together like how a drone was seen near the baltic sea border, but none seen in ukraine, belarus, latvia or lithuania before being spotted in poland

..
there are seedlings of rumours and gossip suggesting that belarus launched the drones on behalf of russia .. but this is mostly conjecture trying to cause more countries to be involved. trying to push for more countries to be seen adversarial. EG trying to entice a false aggression between belarus and poland.

but when wreckage is found in northern poland by the baltic sea which is known to harbour russian ships that can and have launched drones before.. [Occam's razor] the simplest logical version based on available information usually turns out to be the truth

[paxmao]

Are you deliberately being obtuse? Drone flies over wester Ukraine, gets jammed, goes Poland.

are you obtuse..
so they are(in your view) able to fly into ukraine, from the east border with russia. get jammed.. and instead of crashing or running out of fuel.. continue through ukraine for 800 miles. never shot down by any military in ukraine. just continue on. continue on.. and then once in poland suddenly they are spotted where some are shot down and some just crash.. and some make it all the way up north(many more hundreds of miles)..

Does not matter where they come from or how far they flew. Drone ends up in western Ukraine, gets jammed, goes Poland. This is a posibility of among others.

And BTW some of them do go for hundreds of km unchecked or pass by mere saturation of defences, plus and the ones in Poland carried an extra fuel "bag" instead of warheads.

But if the point is that this could be a provocation, sure and it does not really matter where they come from if they are Ruzzian, which nobody questions, and are in Polish airspace.

before.. [Occam's razor] the simplest logical version based on available information usually turns out to be the truth

Then it is a provocation. But Occam's does not always work with Ruzzia - sometimes the most abstract "reason" is their "reason".

[tvbcof]

Russia should program their drones with something like the following:

Code:

------------------
Continue programmed mission to strike Ukraine, or delete mission and continue on present trajectory? [Y/n]

Please confirm mission delete with special super-secret 4-digit pin: ____
------------------

If the drone get's hacked by the super-hackers that Ukraine is so well known for and directed across the border, oh well.

[franky1]

Does not matter where they come from or how far they flew. Drone ends up in western Ukraine, gets jammed, goes Poland. This is a posibility of among others.

And BTW some of them do go for hundreds of km unchecked or pass by mere saturation of defences, plus and the ones in Poland carried an extra fuel "bag" instead of warheads.

before.. [Occam's razor] the simplest logical version based on available information usually turns out to be the truth

Then it is a provocation. But Occam's does not always work with Ruzzia - sometimes the most abstract "reason" is their "reason".

the  'Gerbera' drones only have normal fuel load to do ~200m(300km) or... ~400m(600km) "with extra fuelbag"
now run the math.. see how far you get.. literally
definitely not russia -> east to west ukraine-> southeast to north poland

hint: your math/estimates are yet again a HUGE stretch of imagination. so much they cant even be called estimates

Does not matter where they come from

emphasis: it very much does matter. because if there is gossip/congecture to say:
a. it came from ukraine and mistakenly due to jamming ended up all over poland
b. came from baltic sea and just danced around poland
c. came from belarus and danced around poland

can cause alot of different international diplomacy issues depending on which narrative goes viral
for instance (c) can end up trying to bring belarus and poland into aggressiveness with each other
for instance (a) poland see it as a pre-emptive poke from russia to declare war on poland
for instance (b) oh well mistakes happen, no threat

[o48o]

-cut-
obviously to legally protect itself (should a drone owner(russia) cry foul of a bad shoot/damage/declaration of war..) poland would need to have done some kind of investigation to declare good reason to shoot it down. EG it came within polish borders.. if poland said it was 100km away from poland, russia could call it a message from poland declaring war on russia.. which would be a bad case to initiate

Why would they need to legally protect themselves? Russia denied sending them, so why would Russia even mind? And which court you think would defend individual doing this?

But Russia already attacked Poland's Embassy in Kyiv, so this seems like a pattern where they are testing how Poland responds.
Which means that best response should be quick and swift. Otherwise Russia will just up their stakes and see where their line is, like a child testing boundaries.

[franky1]

-cut-
obviously to legally protect itself (should a drone owner(russia) cry foul of a bad shoot/damage/declaration of war..) poland would need to have done some kind of investigation to declare good reason to shoot it down. EG it came within polish borders.. if poland said it was 100km away from poland, russia could call it a message from poland declaring war on russia.. which would be a bad case to initiate

Why would they need to legally protect themselves? Russia denied sending them, so why would Russia even mind? And which court you think would defend individual doing this?

no country, including poland can just shoot anything without reason. lets make up a country lets call it "dogwagtailistan" now lets say dogwagtailistan decided to airstrike a 'google street' aircraft or high altitude starlink satellite(none weaponed reconnaissance aircraft).. they need to justify the strike especially if its one countries attack on another countries property, the international courts would mediate/judge this. by showing intel. they can justify the attack and close the case/squash the court action before it goes that far, deeming it justified

as for individual doing this.. well the height the drones can achieve i dont think it would be some 'individual' shooting it down with a handgun..
,, but when it comes to military actions they need to classify the attack via intel and such to justify the hit on a drone as a military concern. else it could be seen as a declaration of war instead of self defense

most idiots in this forum keep thinking war is just random attacks intent on killing anyone. they dont understand nor want to looking into military strategy, tactics and the rules of battle that determine if an incident is self defence, a military act, a intentful attack, and other such details like if there were any mitigating factors or intel to show how concerning the risk of the target can be.

by ignoring this. they want to exaggerate any and all  attacks as terrorist or genocide or other buzzwords.

[paxmao]

-cut-
obviously to legally protect itself (should a drone owner(russia) cry foul of a bad shoot/damage/declaration of war..) poland would need to have done some kind of investigation to declare good reason to shoot it down. EG it came within polish borders.. if poland said it was 100km away from poland, russia could call it a message from poland declaring war on russia.. which would be a bad case to initiate

Why would they need to legally protect themselves? Russia denied sending them, so why would Russia even mind? And which court you think would defend individual doing this?

no country, including poland cant just shoot anything. lets make up a country lets call it "dogwagtailistan" now lets say dogwagtailistan decided to airstrike a 'google street' aircraft or high altitude starlink satellite(none weaponed reconnaissance aircraft).. they need to justify the strike especially if its one countries attack on another countries property, the international courts would mediate/judge this. by showing intel. they can justify the attack and close the case/squash the court action before it goes that far, deeming it justified

as for individual doing this.. well the height the drones can achieve i dont think it would be some 'individual' shooting it down with a handgun..
,, but when it comes to military actions they need to classify the attack via intel and such to justify the hit on a drone as a military concern. else it could be seen as a declaration of war instead of self defense
[...]

The point is that since there is a precedent of those drones hitting Poland, the justification is much easier. You set an intervention / drone exclusion zone of 100 km or whatever, and you advise Ruzzia that anything on this range is considered a threat based on their previous actions. Hardly an escalation, as it is merely defensive, but quite proportional.

Poland is not downing a random object or a civil or military plane, They are downing an explosive, unmanned object over the territory of Ukraine, not over Ruzzia, so that can hardly be classified as an act of war.

My guess is that NATO is going to respond very blandly in appearance, but be sure there will be quite a bit of "retaliation" under the radar.

[LTU_btc]

are you obtuse..
so they are(in your view) able to fly into ukraine, from the east border with russia. get jammed.. and instead of crashing or running out of fuel.. continue through ukraine for 800 miles. never shot down by any military in ukraine. just continue on. continue on.. and then once in poland suddenly they are spotted where some are shot down and some just crash.. and some make it all the way up north(many more hundreds of miles)..

i dont think you ar really trying to think about it. but just wanting to post-repeat whatever you seen on social media, which link to limited investigated reports from news media.

maybe try to join some dots together like how a drone was seen near the baltic sea border, but none seen in ukraine, belarus, latvia or lithuania before being spotted in poland

..
there are seedlings of rumours and gossip suggesting that belarus launched the drones on behalf of russia .. but this is mostly conjecture trying to cause more countries to be involved. trying to push for more countries to be seen adversarial. EG trying to entice a false aggression between belarus and poland.

but when wreckage is found in northern poland by the baltic sea which is known to harbour russian ships that can and have launched drones before.. [Occam's razor] the simplest logical version based on available information usually turns out to be the truth

Considering that there was almost 400 targets in Ukrainian space during that attack, it's normal that not everything was shot down, unfortunately Ukrainian air defense doesn't have such capabilities.
After all, I would say that jamming version isn't very likely. Looking at visual of drone movement, it's visible thatdrones have made maneuvers in territory of Poland. Jammed drone would fly in straight direction until falling down.. So, I would say that it was intentional Russian attack or provocation.
Belarus launching drones is least likely scenario IMO. They don't  want escalation. Belarus part even said that they shot down several drones and also informed Poland about approaching drones;
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/belarus-says-it-shot-down-some-drones-that-went-astray-during-russia-ukraine-2025-09-10/

[Jet Cash]

It seems certain that Ukraine took control of these drones and redirected them to Poland. This requires a high degree of control and power, and need multiple sources to jam and take control. Ukraine has installed these points and has been using them. The US has monitoring stations, and is aware of everything that happened. It will be interesting to see if they publish the truth. I gather Ukraine has been warned not to do it again. I expect the next stage will be for Russia to attack the control relay points to minimise the possibility of these false flag attacks that are intended to start world war 3 to increase the bankers' control.

[BADecker]

It seems that the so-called, militarily-prepared Polish military, was only able to shoot down 3 of the 19 Russian drones that entered Polish airspace. Is this the way all of the European NATO countries are prepared?

Crash goes NATO.


The Five Most Likely Outcomes From The Russian Drone Incursion Into Poland


https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/five-most-likely-outcomes-russian-drone-incursion-poland
NATO forces directly intercepted Russian drones for the first time since the special operation began after some of them veered into Poland earlier this week, with this unprecedented incident arguably being due to NATO jamming as explained here.

Some commentators on both sides think that this might lead to World War III, but that's a far-fetched scenario since NATO isn't expected to kinetically respond by bombing Russia (even just Kaliningrad) and/or Belarus. The five most likely outcomes are actually that:

* The "EU Defense Line" Becomes A "Drone Wall"

The "Baltic Defense Line" and Poland's "East Shield", which are collectively known as the "EU Defense Line" that functions as the new Iron Curtain, might soon be outfitted with cutting-edge anti-drone capabilities as suggested by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. She spoke about creating an "Eastern Flank Watch" that would also become a "drone wall", which the Baltic States have wanted for a while, and it makes sense to expand this program in both directions to Poland and Finland.

* Poland Expands Its Military Influence In The Baltics

As the most populous and prosperous formerly communist country in Central Europe, which has already built the third-largest army in NATO, Poland could easily expand its military influence over the region on the pretext of "defending against Russia". New President Karol Nawrocki implied over the summer that the "Three Seas Initiative" would be the means towards this end and even declared during his latest trip to Lithuania that "we are responsible for entire region of Central Europe, including the Baltic States".

* The US Expands Its Military Presence In Poland

Poland has been asking for more US troops for years, and Trump seemed willing to satisfy this request when he said during Nawrocki's visit last month that "We'll put more there if they want." That might be what he had in mind when he tweeted "Here we go!" on Wednesday. As was assessed earlier this year, "Poland Is Once Again Poised To Become The US' Top Partner" and "Trump Is Unlikely To Pull All US Troops Out Of Central Europe Or Abandon NATO's Article 5", so this is within the realm of possibility.
...