🏈🐶 Nutildah's NFL Upset of the Week Competition 🏈🐶

[nutildah]

AKA, "When Dogs Fly"



This is mainly for my own amusement and to serve as a reason for learning extra tidbits about teams and games to try to get some kind of betting edge here and there.

So basically, for each week of the season (starting week 2 obviously), I will pick 1 matchup that I think has the best chance of causing the biggest upset.

For example, this week I am choosing the Jacksonville Jaguars to not only cover a -3.5 spread but to win the game outright, as well. There are definitely bigger upsets that could happen in Week 2 (Browns beating the Ravens comes to mind), but I think this is the one that has the biggest chance of actually pulling it off.

Why do I think this? Here's some reasons why the Jags could will beat the Bengals on Sunday:

• Bengals beat the Browns - not a high-powered team by any expectations - by just 1 point last week despite the line being -4.5 pts. On the other hand, the Jags easily stomped all over the Panthers, winning 26-10.
• Trevor Lawrence's performance last game suggests he is on the path to make up for several inefficiences that plagued his team last year. Joe Burrow put up decent numbers against Cleveland but was sacked 3 times, suggesting his 0 line isn't very strong.
• Burrows has a "slow start" phenomena where he tends to lose his first 4 games (3-8 over the last 3 years).

Counterpoint intangible: Burrow is 20-5 while playing at home, and 2-0 against the Jags.


Given this is a Jacksonville home game (edit: its not) and coming off a win where they showcased a lot of their strengths, as opposed to Bengals who barely beat the Browns, I'm feeling that Jags are not only going to cover a spread of +3.5 but also win the game outright, which makes the Jags my first official Upset of the Week.

Disagree with anything, or have something to add to this analysis? Feel free to let me know! If you think a bigger upset may happen, make the case for it here! We will keep honest track to see how my (and anyone else's) predicitons are going. Some kinda special merit award for those who pick the biggest upset each week. How does that sound?

Wall of Fame/Shame - correct/incorrect picks

nutildah - 3-6
Heuristic - 0-3
DireWolfM14 - 0-1
jeremypwr - 0-2
ChiBitCTy - 1-1
bbc.reporter - 1-2
yahoo62278 - 1-3

[Hueristic]

Jets > Bills

[DireWolfM14]

The upset I'm expecting this week is Bears over Detroit.  The other one; the Niners are still favored over the Saints in New Orleans, even though Brock Purdy and George Kittle are out.  That could turn into an upset, but I hope I'm wrong.

I'm struggling with the Browns at Ravens game on the pick-em pool.  Not because I think the Browns are going to win, but I don't know if the Ravens are going to cover +11.5.  I hate big spreads like that, they scare me.  The Ravens are a dominant team in NFL terms, but very few games are out right blow outs like that.

[nutildah]

Jets > Bills

That's a spicy take. First of all, Jets got cleaned out by the Bills in their last faceoff, 14-40. I just don't see it happening but if it does, it will be a bigger upset than my game.

The upset I'm expecting this week is Bears over Detroit. 

Hmm.. another interesting choice. Line is currently -5.5 Detroit, so it would indeed be quite an upset. I dunno, a rookie QB vs. Goff. Kind of interestingly, Detroit won the last 10 games in a row after getting a loss, which they did get in Week 1. And Detroit is 4-1 in the last 5 matchups against Chicago.

The other one; the Niners are still favored over the Saints in New Orleans, even though Brock Purdy and George Kittle are out.  That could turn into an upset, but I hope I'm wrong.

Yeah who knows, Niners have a bunch of injuries plaguing their team on both sides of the field. Saints were projected to be one of the worst teams going into the season. The line has come down from -7 to -3 Niners, so anything is possible at that low of a spread.

[jeremypwr]

I'll take the home dog Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 and the moneyline for Game 2 of Monday Night Football

First round rookie running backs (Ashton Jeanty for LV) and (Omarion Hampton for LAC) will look to show out on the national stage

AFC West rivalries tend to be closer 

[Hueristic]

The other one; the Niners are still favored over the Saints in New Orleans, even though Brock Purdy and George Kittle are out.  That could turn into an upset, but I hope I'm wrong.

Yeah who knows, Niners have a bunch of injuries plaguing their team on both sides of the field. Saints were projected to be one of the worst teams going into the season. The line has come down from -7 to -3 Niners, so anything is possible at that low of a spread.

LOL, this was DW.

[Hueristic]

I'll take the home dog Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 and the moneyline for Game 2 of Monday Night Football

First round rookie running backs (Ashton Jeanty for LV) and (Omarion Hampton for LAC) will look to show out on the national stage

AFC West rivalries tend to be closer 

Hot take for sure!

I think Chargers are sneaky good this year and if their D can hold things together it should be Herberts best year ever.

[nutildah]

I'll take the home dog Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 and the moneyline for Game 2 of Monday Night Football

First round rookie running backs (Ashton Jeanty for LV) and (Omarion Hampton for LAC) will look to show out on the national stage

AFC West rivalries tend to be closer  

I'm a fan of both Raiders and Chargers but I just don't see Raiders winning this one after how well the Chargers played against KC last week. Its still too early to tell how a rookie will do but Jeanty's 2 yard per carry average last week wasn't very compelling. If he has a huge breakout this game that could swing things in the other direction. Also the Raiders will need to utilize Max Crosby as well as they did against the Pats.. if he can force a turnover or two that would also bode well for a Raiders victory.

In any case, if you really put a bet in, good luck!

[yahoo62278]

Browns offense sucks but their Defense is spectacular. You kind of had to expect the game to be low scoring. If I were to pick a game this week I would probably pick the Denver/Indy game. No way Daniel Jones has as good a game as week 1 against Denvers defense. Indy underdogs by 2.5 but it may as well be 20 as I think if they won it would be a miracle.

[ChiBitCTy]

The Bucs over Texans at +2.5 -130 is my pick of the week by far.  I just can't wrap my mind around this one.  Every year, for about 3-4 weeks the Vegas odds makers tend to be a little less dead on, like they usually always are.  They don't make the kinda money they do not being good at what they're doing lol.  That said, for many  years now I've noticed this trend and it's paid off nicely being that I'm balls deep in NFL to a level of being considered sad, maybe.  I dunno.  Anyways now that I say this the Texans will win by 45 points, just watch.  I'm putting my heaviest bet in years down on this one.  We shall see.

[Mr. Magkaisa]

For example, this week I am choosing the Jacksonville Jaguars to not only cover a -3.5 spread but to win the game outright, as well. There are definitely bigger upsets that could happen in Week 2 (Browns beating the Ravens comes to mind), but I think this is the one that has the biggest chance of actually pulling it off.

Counterpoint intangible: Burrow is 20-5 while playing at home, and 2-0 against the Jags.

Given this is a Jacksonville home game and coming off a win where they showcased a lot of their strengths, as opposed to Bengals who barely beat the Browns, I'm feeling that Jags are not only going to cover a spread of +3.5 but also win the game outright, which makes the Jags my first official Upset of the Week.

This is something I want to see, Checking to bet now coz i need to do 1 and make a preiction with BetPanda predicition contest. I want to give a good gamble for the win with out the +3.5 but its not that big for the prize.



I was expecting over x3 with out the +. but ill just go with +3.5 and +3.

[nutildah]

The Bucs over Texans at +2.5 -130 is my pick of the week by far.  I just can't wrap my mind around this one.  Every year, for about 3-4 weeks the Vegas odds makers tend to be a little less dead on, like they usually always are.  They don't make the kinda money they do not being good at what they're doing lol.  That said, for many  years now I've noticed this trend and it's paid off nicely being that I'm balls deep in NFL to a level of being considered sad, maybe.  I dunno.  Anyways now that I say this the Texans will win by 45 points, just watch.  I'm putting my heaviest bet in years down on this one.  We shall see.

Sounds like a probable scenario. QB matchup is definitely in your favor, Texas looked absolutely pitiful on O last game. It all hingest on whether Stroud and Chubbs decide to show up this time. Honestly I don't know why Texas is favored at all, even if only by 2.5 pts. I suppose all of that is the home team factor.

Damn now I'm thinking about how I should take this bet as well.  

This is something I want to see, Checking to bet now coz i need to do 1 and make a preiction with BetPanda predicition contest. I want to give a good gamble for the win with out the +3.5 but its not that big for the prize.

Well if you really did put these bets in, good luck to you, hope we both win. In case if it needs to be said this is not financial advice  and don't gamble more than you can afford to lose. There, I think that covers it.

[Mr. Magkaisa]

The Bucs over Texans at +2.5 -130 is my pick of the week by far.  I just can't wrap my mind around this one.  Every year, for about 3-4 weeks the Vegas odds makers tend to be a little less dead on, like they usually always are.  They don't make the kinda money they do not being good at what they're doing lol.  That said, for many  years now I've noticed this trend and it's paid off nicely being that I'm balls deep in NFL to a level of being considered sad, maybe.  I dunno.  Anyways now that I say this the Texans will win by 45 points, just watch.  I'm putting my heaviest bet in years down on this one.  We shall see.

Sounds like a probable scenario. QB matchup is definitely in your favor, Texas looked absolutely pitiful on O last game. It all hingest on whether Stroud and Chubbs decide to show up this time. Honestly I don't know why Texas is favored at all, even if only by 2.5 pts. I suppose all of that is the home team factor.

Damn now I'm thinking about how I should take this bet as well.  

This is something I want to see, Checking to bet now coz i need to do 1 and make a preiction with BetPanda predicition contest. I want to give a good gamble for the win with out the +3.5 but its not that big for the prize.

Well if you really did put these bets in, good luck to you, hope we both win. In case if it needs to be said this is not financial advice  and don't gamble more than you can afford to lose. There, I think that covers it.

I really followed your prediction, but no worries i did not bet for 100 dolllars on that just small bets that i need to join a prediction contest on our community.
I just dont have a good game to bet for the Basketball thats why i need to search for other games. Wishing you the best result, coz i will win also

Thanks also for supporting our local community (PH)

[nutildah]

Dang. Lost by 1 point. And the Jaguars were winning through most of the game. Heuristic and DireWolf also had misses, so we're not off to a good start. Maybe ChiBitCTy and jeremypwr can redeem us as a forum if both of their picks are correct tomorrow.

Would you guys mind if I kept a tally of our predictions in the first post? It might be kinda fun to see who gets the most correct underdog picks (and by how many points) over the course of the season.

[Mr. Magkaisa]

Dang. Lost by 1 point. And the Jaguars were winning through most of the game. Heuristic and DireWolf also had misses, so we're not off to a good start. Maybe ChiBitCTy and jeremypwr can redeem us as a forum if both of their picks are correct tomorrow.

Would you guys mind if I kept a tally of our predictions in the first post? It might be kinda fun to see who gets the most correct underdog picks (and by how many points) over the course of the season.

It was nice and to lost by 1 point on that much is acceptable. It was a good run though, I will stll give an eye on your prediction and hopefully next one will be gold

Heuristic and DireWolf also had misses If they just made it


jeremypwr - he will for sure, ill add ChiBitCTy on my following

[Hueristic]

Dang. Lost by 1 point. And the Jaguars were winning through most of the game. Heuristic and DireWolf also had misses, so we're not off to a good start. Maybe ChiBitCTy and jeremypwr can redeem us as a forum if both of their picks are correct tomorrow.

Would you guys mind if I kept a tally of our predictions in the first post? It might be kinda fun to see who gets the most correct underdog picks (and by how many points) over the course of the season.

Go for it, I'll keep picking the longest shots I think might happen.

That was Fields chance to prove himself and he blew it, not champion material that one.

[nutildah]

The Bucs over Texans at +2.5 -130 is my pick of the week by far. 
...
I'm putting my heaviest bet in years down on this one.  We shall see.

Hey, congrats! How did you celebrate? You were the one person to get a correct pick. 


WEEK 3

Here's a list of all the games where the spread is wider than 3 points:

Colts (-4.5) vs. Titans (+4.5)
Falcons (-5.5) vs. Panthers (+5.5) -- believe it or not Panthers opened as -1.5 favorites
Packers (-7.5) vs. Browns (+7.5)
Rams (+3.5) vs. Eagles (-3.5)
Jets (+6.5) vs. Buccaneers (-6.5)
Saints (+7.5) vs. Seahawks (-7.5)
Chiefs (-6.5) vs. Giants (+6.5)
Lions (+4.5) vs. Ravens (-4.5)

We missed the Dolphins vs. Bills game but I don't think that's a problem as nobody in their right mind would pick the Dolphins 

What game do you like this week as the most likely upset? We should just pick underdogs we think are going to win the game (moneyline) for the sake of keeping the theme of the thread simple.

Personally I'm gonna need a day to come up with my answer.

[jeremypwr]

NY Giants on the moneyline

Only cause I wanna see KC start the season @ 0-3

Which hasn't happened since 2011 (they missed the playoffs that year)

[nutildah]

On second thought, I didn't mean to limit possible matches by listing only some of them; you can pick any underdog team you want, regardless of the spread, because spreads are changing all the time.

Regardless I'm going with the Rams over the Eagles, for the main reason that I am a Rams fan. Its my hypothesis that Puka Nacua is going to make quick work of the Eagles secondary. Stafford just needs enough protection from his line to allow Nacua to get open. I also think the Rams defense will do a good job of containing Barkley and Hurts. Will be a good game regardless of who wins.

NY Giants on the moneyline

Only cause I wanna see KC start the season @ 0-3

Which hasn't happened since 2011 (they missed the playoffs that year)

I like it. It is a home game for the Giants. Who knows what can happen on any given Sunday.

[Hueristic]

Giants > Chiefs