Suspicious/weird outrights

[KTChampions]

I don't bet on this market, but I enjoy watching how bookmakers' opinions change over time.
Quite often, I notice odds that seem strange (in my subjective opinion) appear from time to time, for example:

Top 6 Borussia Dortmund - 1.04

Top 3 Liverpool - 1.13

Top 3 Napoli 1.29

What would have to happen for Dortmund to miss out on the top six?! Which three (!) teams would Liverpool have to lose to in order to fall outside the top three? Considering that Liverpool is currently five points ahead of their nearest rival. Napoli also lead Serie A with a 100% record.
These bets literally look like bets against plane crashes or something similar.
If you place a multiple bet on these events, the profit over 8 months will be 51.6% 
Don't these quotes seem strange to you?

[bitbollo]

Interesting point...
My suggestion is to make a search on betting exchange in uk. they have mostly the best odds for western countries.
some asian book, that accepts larger bets, would show probably the lowest or "the real" odds for big amounts.

Actually we are just at season start. It could always possible to have some issue or change during the season.
It's true there is an huge chance that these odds are the odds that win but ... you are not still sure.

Exchanges allow to "buy" this high odd and "sell" later... just pay attention to liquidity of these markets...

[Lannakosa]

I don't bet on such long-term events either, but you're right that the odds are very good. I completely agree with Dortmund, but I think the odds are too low to bet on them. Of these teams, I have almost no doubt that Napoli will be in the top - 3, and the odds are good for that. Perhaps the bookmakers are taking into account that this is just the beginning of the season, and things could change later, although I can't imagine what would have to change for the team to start losing, if they're in good form right now.

[Rashlyowl]

Outrights give you an edge, but it has to be played over the long term. You have a subjective opinion, as do I. I don't think this type of betting is worth trying for those looking to make significant profits from football betting. It's suitable for those who want to place a safe bet while monitoring the progress of the teams.

[KTChampions]

I don't bet on such long-term events either, but you're right that the odds are very good. I completely agree with Dortmund, but I think the odds are too low to bet on them. Of these teams, I have almost no doubt that Napoli will be in the top - 3, and the odds are good for that. Perhaps the bookmakers are taking into account that this is just the beginning of the season, and things could change later, although I can't imagine what would have to change for the team to start losing, if they're in good form right now.

Yep. 4% seems like a small amount, but it depends on what you compare it to. That's 4% over 8 months; if you compare it to an annual percentage rate, that's 6% per annum—better than what banks offer. Plus, as we can see, if you combine several of these reliable options, you can get 10%, 20%, and, as I've shown, even 50%.
Overall, I'm still thinking and can't figure out where the catch is. It could just be that you're freezing your money for a relatively long period of time, and bettors don't like that.

[Jawhead999]

Didn't the odds change after you place your bet?

I think it's not worth it when the odds during you place a bet is high, then after 8 months or near end of the season, the odds change drastically because everyone already know which team will finish at top 3 or 6 based on the possibility of few match left.

That's what I know, I have never place this kind long term bet.

[Agbamoni]

The bookmakers will always, I repeat will always set odds to be in their favor. Liverpool are the favorite to win the Premier League, what different does it change when the odds is fucking low. The odds look safe as "betting against plane crash", but the extent to which it keeps reducing when the outcomes goes their way shows how unlikely the bookmakers think failure is. Football is a game where sometimes we dont what to expect because the unexpected do happens. In situations like this, Ill prefer to bet on the opposite it will be much higher and if lucks happens you win big.

[Frankolala]

It's clear that the odd given to these clubs by the bookmaker is low because the chance of those clubs finishing on the those spots is highly possible in the long run. However, we don't know the uncertainties that will befall on these clubs that will limit their chances of finishing on top three or top six on the table as predicted by the bookmakers. Injuries can be a big challenge and other factors.

[KTChampions]

I don't bet on this market, but I enjoy watching how bookmakers' opinions change over time.
Quite often, I notice odds that seem strange (in my subjective opinion) appear from time to time, for example:

Top 6 Borussia Dortmund - 1.04

Top 3 Liverpool - 1.13

Top 3 Napoli 1.29

What would have to happen for Dortmund to miss out on the top six?! Which three (!) teams would Liverpool have to lose to in order to fall outside the top three? Considering that Liverpool is currently five points ahead of their nearest rival. Napoli also lead Serie A with a 100% record.
These bets literally look like bets against plane crashes or something similar.
If you place a multiple bet on these events, the profit over 8 months will be 51.6% 
Don't these quotes seem strange to you?

It's time to rethink these arguments 
What happened to Liverpool (5 defeats in a row and further shitty play until the end of the tournament) really looked like a plane crash, could it have been foreseen?
Napoli also proved unreliable, and if not for even worse opponents, they could have finished outside the top three.
The only one who really lived up to expectations was Dortmund, but 4% in 8 months is not something worth betting on.
In general, I conclude that, as always in murky outcomes, the Yes side is overvalued, and unfortunately, traditional bookmakers do not have the opportunity to bet on the No side and there is a reason for that haha.

[leea-1334]

It's time to rethink these arguments 
What happened to Liverpool (5 defeats in a row and further shitty play until the end of the tournament) really looked like a plane crash, could it have been foreseen?
Napoli also proved unreliable, and if not for even worse opponents, they could have finished outside the top three.
The only one who really lived up to expectations was Dortmund, but 4% in 8 months is not something worth betting on.
In general, I conclude that, as always in murky outcomes, the Yes side is overvalued, and unfortunately, traditional bookmakers do not have the opportunity to bet on the No side and there is a reason for that haha.

I miss it when guys like you and @buway post about odds and value,,, I skipped forum a few years and so glad to see you guys still do it. I tagged along a few times and really benefited.

This one I did not see in time however,,, and good for me  

I find it rare that bookies get things wrong,,, but they really got relegation odds wrong for Tottenham towards the end after being right most of the season. Unless it was intentional like what you showed for the top 3,,, and bookmakers knew this kind of shift will tempt losers to lose more money.

[freedomgo]

Bookmakers probably just want to give you a problem or make you fall into the trap, but honestly, none of those odds are really interesting to me.

You know, bookies are very smart. They know how we think, so they also know what kind of lines they should offer. We can question those lines, but at the end of the day, those will remain as the odds. So it is still up to us if we will take it or just pass. Not every line is worth betting on, even if it looks tempting at first.

[Fortify]

I don't bet on this market, but I enjoy watching how bookmakers' opinions change over time.
Quite often, I notice odds that seem strange (in my subjective opinion) appear from time to time, for example:

Top 6 Borussia Dortmund - 1.04

Top 3 Liverpool - 1.13

Top 3 Napoli 1.29

What would have to happen for Dortmund to miss out on the top six?! Which three (!) teams would Liverpool have to lose to in order to fall outside the top three? Considering that Liverpool is currently five points ahead of their nearest rival. Napoli also lead Serie A with a 100% record.
These bets literally look like bets against plane crashes or something similar.
If you place a multiple bet on these events, the profit over 8 months will be 51.6% 
Don't these quotes seem strange to you?

There is mostly automatic calculation and number crunching that goes into these odds, which may get "corrected" later on by manual teams but you'll often find that they end up fairly consistent across bookmakers. My question would be, if you found these low odds so outrageous then why don't you try to find some way which gives you the reverse of these odds, because presumably they are overly generous and would be making you a lot of money. However bookmakers are not immune to choosing bad odds, just look how far horse racing bets change from 3 days out up until the race. The thing is if you are too effective at picking good bets then your account is likely to get limited as a method to knock out your profits.

[KTChampions]

It's time to rethink these arguments  
What happened to Liverpool (5 defeats in a row and further shitty play until the end of the tournament) really looked like a plane crash, could it have been foreseen?
Napoli also proved unreliable, and if not for even worse opponents, they could have finished outside the top three.
The only one who really lived up to expectations was Dortmund, but 4% in 8 months is not something worth betting on.
In general, I conclude that, as always in murky outcomes, the Yes side is overvalued, and unfortunately, traditional bookmakers do not have the opportunity to bet on the No side and there is a reason for that haha.

I miss it when guys like you and @buway post about odds and value,,, I skipped forum a few years and so glad to see you guys still do it. I tagged along a few times and really benefited.

This one I did not see in time however,,, and good for me  

I find it rare that bookies get things wrong,,, but they really got relegation odds wrong for Tottenham towards the end after being right most of the season. Unless it was intentional like what you showed for the top 3,,, and bookmakers knew this kind of shift will tempt losers to lose more money.

I saw in the other thread where you also mentioned me, pay attention to the odds in buwaytress bets - 3.95 on Crystal Palace against the champions and 7 on Aston Villa against City away. Previously it would have been something like a 7 and 10+ for City in Pep's farewell game. Now these quotes are one and a half times lower, there is no value here, I'm glad that he won, but he was underpaid   I don't know, maybe, given all the circumstances, the odds are fair (and still lacking value), but tournaments nowadays are designed to create an endless, homogeneous mess where the favorites don't strive to fully realize their potential. That's why we talk about value less often.

[Sandra_hakeem]

It's time to rethink these arguments  
What happened to Liverpool (5 defeats in a row and further shitty play until the end of the tournament) really looked like a plane crash, could it have been foreseen?

There's no way anyone would have thought that they'd suck so bad at competing in that level. All they needed to do was stay at the top, but I blame Bournemouth for losing their final play against Nottnham Forest. They just missed their only opportunity to have featured in the Uefa champions League next season.

Back to your post, I don't know if this is suspicious in any way, but when the odds are too tempting, it's clearly a trap.

You know, bookies are very smart. They know how we think, so they also know what kind of lines they should offer. We can question those lines, but at the end of the day, those will remain as the odds. So it is still up to us if we will take it or just pass. Not every line is worth betting on, even if it looks tempting at first.

"They know how we think"... My favourite part of your post. Truth is, they program a sort of boundary that guards your whole psyche and thoughts, in a way that you don't make any predictions outside what's in their control.

[Fivestar4everMVP]

Outrights give you an edge, but it has to be played over the long term. You have a subjective opinion, as do I. I don't think this type of betting is worth trying for those looking to make significant profits from football betting. It's suitable for those who want to place a safe bet while monitoring the progress of the teams.

I agree with your opinion, and we have to also understand that it's humans as well who come up with the odds even before bettors start to decide which side they believe will win and which side the believe will lose, odds won't and can't be perfect all the time, there some odds you see and it leaves you wondering if the casino or sports book actually know what they are doing because the odds is no different from a giveaway/free money.

While on the other hand, there are also some odds you see and you wonder if the casino had started stealing money from their users.
So all of this are quite normal, odds where it is very easy to win and make money from is what many refer to as value odds or bets, some bettors can spend a whole day looking for such type of odds but unfortunately, its not one that appears all the time.
And while odds like this may appear to be a safe bet, one still have to be careful though because there are no guarantees.

[Ayers]

What happened to Liverpool (5 defeats in a row and further shitty play until the end of the tournament) really looked like a plane crash, could it have been foreseen?

I find it rare that bookies get things wrong,,, but they really got relegation odds wrong for Tottenham towards the end after being right most of the season. Unless it was intentional like what you showed for the top 3,,, and bookmakers knew this kind of shift will tempt losers to lose more money.

Looking back you can understand that you should never bet on odd. I bet on small odds and took the free money Football is not that easy, man. Such collapse of liverpool team and Napoli's form show that due to player injury, climate, coach's tactical mistakes or fatigue of a packed fixture even the chariot of any hot favorite team can come into a standstill form anytime. That is why, what initially looks like a safer game like betting on a plane crash turned out to be biggest trap hidden there

The only one who really lived up to expectations was Dortmund, but 4% in 8 months is not something worth betting on.

Getting 4% profit after 8 month mean that in many countries this is close to the inflation rate, lol.
It is much more sensible to place a short term value bet. Or if that money had been invested into other market for this long term then it would have made a much better profit with a much better risk/reward ratio I think

[Doan9269]

When it comes to bookmakers, do you understand the procedures because they are being professional in what they do, everything will go in line with how they intended to place those odds for the benefits of gambling but by gamblers, this is why I often warn that Gambler should not focus more on the odds when they want to gamble and choose their prefect team with any market option they want to go for, odds may be deceiving or set as a trap if you don't know, the bookmakers are more strategical in setting odds in a professional manner.

[Questat]

When it comes to bookmakers, do you understand the procedures because they are being professional in what they do, everything will go in line with how they intended to place those odds for the benefits of gambling but by gamblers, this is why I often warn that Gambler should not focus more on the odds when they want to gamble and choose their prefect team with any market option they want to go for, odds may be deceiving or set as a trap if you don't know, the bookmakers are more strategical in setting odds in a professional manner.

In general, there is what we call implied probability and true probability. Implied probability is based on the odds being offered, while true probability is based on our own evaluation of whether those odds are overvalued or undervalued.

If we see value there, that is when we place the bet. That is why it is always necessary to consider these things, because it helps us make better decisions instead of just betting based on feeling. Some odds may look crazy, and we can think that way, but bookies would not care. They might even like us thinking that way because it means the odds they created are interesting to the public.

[KTChampions]

The only one who really lived up to expectations was Dortmund, but 4% in 8 months is not something worth betting on.

Getting 4% profit after 8 month mean that in many countries this is close to the inflation rate, lol.
It is much more sensible to place a short term value bet. Or if that money had been invested into other market for this long term then it would have made a much better profit with a much better risk/reward ratio I think

I'll tell you more, in some countries (and I think in fact in most countries) these 4% do not even compensate for the level of inflation. The only argument in favor of such a bet might be that you can make it in bitcoin and thus increase your savings in a deflationary asset, but even this bet was risky, so everyone must decide whether to take the risk for such a return or not. This is also not an obvious choice, by the way, since you expect bitcoin to return more than 4% per year on average, so is there any point in risking for 4% bonus interest?

[Botnake]

, by the way, since you expect bitcoin to return more than 4% per year on average, so is there any point in risking for 4% bonus interest?

I think it cannot really be compared with Bitcoin because even if we say that 4% is real and you can expect that return, sports betting is different.

You are betting on the future. Once you place that bet, your money is already stuck there and it will only be judged after the season ends or after the champion is decided. So Bitcoin is still more favorable in that matter because it is very volatile. At some point, it could even give over 100% return while your sports bet is still waiting for the final result.

That is why I don’t think they are the same. In sports betting, your money is locked until the outcome happens, while with Bitcoin, you still have more flexibility depending on the market movement.