Suspicious/weird outrights

[blomen]

this example alone is an absolute proof that there are no guarantees in gambling. i’ve actually kept this topic in the back of my mind just to use as an example. i don’t think anyone would have predicted in late september that liverpool would go through such a rough patch in the middle of the season. and as a result, the bet you placed would have lost at odds of 1.51 after waiting for months. actually, that odds were bad for a losing bet.

[monetizator4]

, by the way, since you expect bitcoin to return more than 4% per year on average, so is there any point in risking for 4% bonus interest?

I think it cannot really be compared with Bitcoin because even if we say that 4% is real and you can expect that return, sports betting is different.

You are betting on the future. Once you place that bet, your money is already stuck there and it will only be judged after the season ends or after the champion is decided. So Bitcoin is still more favorable in that matter because it is very volatile. At some point, it could even give over 100% return while your sports bet is still waiting for the final result.

That is why I don’t think they are the same. In sports betting, your money is locked until the outcome happens, while with Bitcoin, you still have more flexibility depending on the market movement.

Bitcoin's volatility can indeed make it seem like a better long-term play compared to locking money into sports bets for months. But remember, volatility isn't always profitable, it depends on timing and market conditions. Plus, with Bitcoin, there’s no guarantee of returns, just the hope that its value will increase. Sports betting might have its downsides, but it often offers clearer short-term potential

[buwaytress]

I miss it when guys like you and @buway post about odds and value,,, I skipped forum a few years and so glad to see you guys still do it. I tagged along a few times and really benefited.

If you're talking about the thread I used to update almost daily for some years, I've had to (temporarily?) abandon it. Mainly because it's just a lack of time and shifting priorities, but also, and perhaps more importantly, for the reasons KTChampions discusses.

Great thread, by the way, KTC -- I actually bet on outrights strategically (ignoring Liverpool ones which I do out of spite for myself) but rarely look at relegation battles, often I look at pre-seaon winners. The point we see in value is valid even here.

I saw in the other thread where you also mentioned me, pay attention to the odds in buwaytress bets - 3.95 on Crystal Palace against the champions and 7 on Aston Villa against City away. Previously it would have been something like a 7 and 10+ for City in Pep's farewell game. Now these quotes are one and a half times lower, there is no value here, I'm glad that he won, but he was underpaid   I don't know, maybe, given all the circumstances, the odds are fair (and still lacking value), but tournaments nowadays are designed to create an endless, homogeneous mess where the favorites don't strive to fully realize their potential. That's why we talk about value less often.

Couldn't have put it any better -- when in past seasons have we ever seen an away team take only 7/1 against a fully-fit City who were expected to win to give Pep a sendoff? In Champions League games as well, even when I've won, it's barely 10/1 at best whereas just four seasons and more ago, you could easily get 20/1 vs any big team.

Go back 10 years, leea-1334, and you will see how value has been deliberately slashed by an impossible amount. Remember Leicester City 5000/1? This was for a team that finished 14th the season prior.

In the 25/26 season, you could only get max 1000/1 if using specific book promos for a similar team (one that survived relegation in previous season). Now check the odds for next season. Highest is only 750/1 (Sunderland). Odds for the newly-promoted teams? 2000/1 and 3000/1.

Believe me, these odds will keep shrinking every season. That's why we talk about value less often now. Very sad.

[Alphakilo]

The bookmakers will always, I repeat will always set odds to be in their favor. Liverpool are the favorite to win the Premier League, what different does it change when the odds is fucking low. The odds look safe as "betting against plane crash", but the extent to which it keeps reducing when the outcomes goes their way shows how unlikely the bookmakers think failure is. Football is a game where sometimes we dont what to expect because the unexpected do happens. In situations like this, Ill prefer to bet on the opposite it will be much higher and if lucks happens you win big.

Bookmakers make alot of money from these strange looking odds and it is intentional because bettors would bet anyway and whether the outcome is a win or lose, bookmakers would make their profit.
While it may look like free money, we as humans mostly when it comes to betting, we don't place much value in long term variance but prefer to over estimate short term trends, and we do it wrong because we want to defend a 1.04 margin kind of odd many of the times.