NFL Weekly 3: pick 3 teams most likely to cover the spread each week

[nutildah]

This section needs more NFL threads. And I have yet another idea for a thread that I think is pretty good. The premise is simple: choose the 3 teams each week that you are confident will cover their spreads. That way if 2 or 3 picks are correct you will have profited. If only 1 is correct then yeah you take a small loss and of course 0 is a total loss.

I should have started this thread earlier to capture more data, but what can we do, its Week 4 of the season already, and I feel like I have an idea of whats going on. Let's see if I can prove that right, or wrong.

There is no reward for participation except for the pride of knowing you guessed correctly in public; perhaps even multiple times.


So for example, here's my 3 picks for Week 4, taking into account a $100 bet (example) on each pick and showing the potential winnings:

Chargers to cover -6.5 against the Giants (-110): $90.91
Jets to cover +2.5 against the Dolphins (-110): $90.91
Jaguars to cover +3.5 against the 49ers (-110): $90.91

So if 2 of 3 games hit, that is a net profit of $81.82. The $$ figure is arbitrary, I just picked a round number to show an example of how hitting 2 of 3 bets is profitable. This is an experimental week. I'm not actually betting on these games. But if 2 or 3 picks hit then I will consider it for Week 5.

[nutildah]

Uh oh, I'm 1-1 so far:

Chargers to cover -6.5 against the Giants (-110): $90.91
Jets to cover +2.5 against the Dolphins (-110): $90.91
Jaguars to cover +3.5 against the 49ers (-110): $90.91

It all comes down to today's Jets/Dolphins game, which just started, and the Dolphins are already up by 3. When I "ran the numbers", it looked like an easy cover for the Jets. Especially taking into consideration that they almost beat the Buccaneers last week (they lost by 2 points at the end of the game), and the Bucs isn't that bad of a team. As a matter of fact they are currently 3-0.

Well it will be interesting to see how this first in a series of experiments concludes. At least it won't be a total wash.

[nutildah]

Jets did not cover against the Dolphins so that means I only got 1/3 games and it would have been a losing proposition.

OK, going to do another one for research. I'm gonna be doing them all season but that doesn't necessarily mean I'm actually placing bets.

Let's try it again.

For week 5, here's 3 picks where if 2 or more hit the bet is profitable:

Eagles to cover against the Broncos (-3.5, -120)
Commanders to cover against the Chargers (+3, -115)
Chiefs to cover against Jaguars (-3, -118)

So if all 3 bets win, $100 on each pick would yield a profit of $255.04. 2 of 3 bets would yield between $68.08 and $71.71, depending on which team lost. So basically it takes about 3 wins to cover 2 losses... Shouldn't be undoable. C'mon, let's go.

[ralle14]

I'd like to give it a try as well since we have a lot of interesting handicaps this week.

Vikings -3.5 vs. Browns for 1.97 odds
Titans +7.5 vs. Cardinals for 1.87 odds
Saints -2.5 vs Giants for 1.92 odds

Even though the Vikings have burned me in the previous rounds, I believe they got this one in the bag, considering the Browns haven't been scoring for more than 20 points.

If every one of them covers, it'd be $275 worth of profit, but that kind of assumption is too good to be true.

[yahoo62278]

Jets did not cover against the Dolphins so that means I only got 1/3 games and it would have been a losing proposition.

OK, going to do another one for research. I'm gonna be doing them all season but that doesn't necessarily mean I'm actually placing bets.

Let's try it again.

For week 5, here's 3 picks where if 2 or more hit the bet is profitable:

Eagles to cover against the Broncos (-3.5, -120)
Commanders to cover against the Chargers (+3, -115)
Chiefs to cover against Jaguars (-3, -118)

So if all 3 bets win, $100 on each pick would yield a profit of $255.04. 2 of 3 bets would yield between $68.08 and $71.71, depending on which team lost. So basically it takes about 3 wins to cover 2 losses... Shouldn't be undoable. C'mon, let's go.

1-1 so far with chiefs to go. Looks like you're gonna need some more experimenting, but I like the idea.

I'd like to give it a try as well since we have a lot of interesting handicaps this week.

Vikings -3.5 vs. Browns for 1.97 odds
Titans +7.5 vs. Cardinals for 1.87 odds
Saints -2.5 vs Giants for 1.92 odds

Even though the Vikings have burned me in the previous rounds, I believe they got this one in the bag, considering the Browns haven't been scoring for more than 20 points.

If every one of them covers, it'd be $275 worth of profit, but that kind of assumption is too good to be true.

Perfect score, hope you made bets on the games.

[ralle14]

Perfect score, hope you made bets on the games.

It wasn't the exact bet, but I did something similar (Vikings to win, Titans+10, and Saints to win) and threw them all in a parlay.  



I surely thought the Titans would've lost that game after seeing the Cardinals lead 21-3 around the first half. Once Kyler stepped out for a bit around the second half, their offense just lost the momentum.

[nutildah]

1-1 so far with chiefs to go. Looks like you're gonna need some more experimenting, but I like the idea.

Yeah I am gonna need more practice for sure. I just wanted a way to concretely timestamp my predictions in public to see if I can perform under pressure 

Its not going so well but its only been 2 weeks. Holding out some home that the Chiefs won't let me down. They only need 4 points, shouldn't be impossible against the Jags.

It wasn't the exact bet, but I did something similar (Vikings to win, Titans+10, and Saints to win) and threw them all in a parlay.  

Nice... Yeah taking Saints -2.5 was pretty hairy for a 0-4 team but in the end betting on them to win was also a win. So congrats. 

[ralle14]

I forgot to post the spreads i've got for this week, but here they are anyway.

Broncos -6.5 vs. Jets for 1.78 odds
Patriots -3.5 vs. Saints for 1.90 odds
Rams -6.5 vs. Ravens for 1.79 odds

I wanted to try and experiment with buying a point, since it could come down to that one final drive if the game state becomes very close throughout the first three quarters.

Another perfect run would pay $247, but that might be too much to ask after last week's 3/3.

[yahoo62278]

I like

Colts -8.5
Dal -3
Pit -6

Colts have been crushing it and Kyler Murray is out. Jacoby Brissett will be starting. Colts should cover 8.5. Dallas record makes them look bad but this is the best Dak has been in his career. Aaron Rodgers is playing great football as well and as long as he can get time to throw they will cover this easily.


**EDIT**

Looks like only Pittsburgh is going to cover for my picks. Arizona D played well and Jacoby played better than Kyler would have in the Colts game. Dallas couldn't beat the Panthers, yuck.

[nutildah]

I got a bit distracted last week but I wanna keep it going. Needed to get my picks in today because I really like the Steelers to cover -5 (-115) today against the Bengals.

For the other 2 lets take

Bears -4.5 (-115) and
Colts +1.5 (-105)

So far I am in the hole but lets see if I can make up for it this week.

Broncos -6.5 vs. Jets for 1.78 odds
Patriots -3.5 vs. Saints for 1.90 odds
Rams -6.5 vs. Ravens for 1.79 odds

Pretty close, 2 for 3.

I like

Colts -8.5
Dal -3
Pit -6

1 for 3

[yahoo62278]

I got a bit distracted last week but I wanna keep it going. Needed to get my picks in today because I really like the Steelers to cover -5 (-115) today against the Bengals.

For the other 2 lets take

Bears -4.5 (-115) and
Colts +1.5 (-105)

So far I am in the hole but lets see if I can make up for it this week.

I'm on the opposite side in the Steelers vs Bengals

Cincy+5.5
Giants +7
Colts+1.5

Not even sure how the Colts are underdogs vs the struggling Chargers. Feels like free money.

[ralle14]

Pretty close, 2 for 3.

I almost thought losing that first pick was the start of my regression, but i'm glad the next two picks delivered.

After last week's matches, that puts my record to 5-1 with $344 profit, assuming it's $100 per pick.

Rams -3.5 vs. Jags @2.02 odds
Vikings +2.5 vs Eagles @1.90 odds
Panthers -1 vs Jets @1.90 odds

I couldn't be bothered buying points since it didn't matter last week, and I want to test the Vikings again, given these fishy odds against the SB champs.

[nutildah]

I got a bit distracted last week but I wanna keep it going. Needed to get my picks in today because I really like the Steelers to cover -5 (-115) today against the Bengals.

For the other 2 lets take

Bears -4.5 (-115) and
Colts +1.5 (-105)

Well, the first pick was something of a disaster, I thought for sure the Bengals would do worse than that. But anyway, at least I got 2 of 3 this week.

Let's take a look at how things have played out for my theoretical $100 picks so far, just so I can see how far behind I still am. I'm gonna switch to the other odds format as it makes more sense.

Week 4: $190.91-$300 = -$109.09
Week 5: $186.96-$300 = -$113.04
Week 7: $195.24 + $186.96 - $300 = $82.20

Total as of end of Week 7: -$139.93

So I need 1 3-0 week to get into the green. If I go 2/3, that will definitely help but I'll still be net negative.

[nutildah]

OK gotta get my 3 in for this week. I feel pretty strongly about at least 1 of them. Let's see if we can get into the green finally.

Here are the 3 picks I like for Week 8:

Bears (+2.5) to cover against the Ravens, -105
49ers (+2.5) to cover against the Texans, -115
Titans (+14.5) to cover against the Colts, -110

All underdog this week. I know the Titans are bad but cmon, more than 2 touchdowns? I think when it becomes apparent a team is gonna win, they relax a little bit. So maybe an 11 point win for the Colts. Let's see.

[ralle14]

All underdog this week. I know the Titans are bad but cmon, more than 2 touchdowns? I think when it becomes apparent a team is gonna win, they relax a little bit. So maybe an 11 point win for the Colts. Let's see.

Nice to see you like the dogs too. I also took the Bears and Niners in my top three picks, then the Giants for the third.

Giants +7.5 (1.83)
Niners +2.5 (1.93)
Bears +2.5 (1.95)

Last week ended up being 2/3 with only the Vikings spoiling the perfect run. I'm nervous that this could be the time where i'd have a negative week, but I hope my hunch is wrong.

[nutildah]

Here are the 3 picks I like for Week 8:

Bears (+2.5) to cover against the Ravens, -105
49ers (+2.5) to cover against the Texans, -115
Titans (+14.5) to cover against the Colts, -110

Aw man. For the first time this season, its the giant nothingburger. $300 theoretical dollars all down the drain. Like, none of the games were even close. They were all staunchly in the other direction. It was also a sad showing in the pickem league where I only managed to get 3 out of 12 games... I'm hoping to get #4 by the end of today.

I don't really know where it all went wrong this week. But I won't give up, there's no time for crying, have to keep going and show up every damn week.

[ralle14]

Same here, I knew it was coming, and I still fell for it.

Still ahead by a few wins (5-3 +$44), but it barely matters after that one bad week.

Patriots -4.5 (1.87) vs. Falcons
Colts -3.5 (1.90) vs Steelers
Lions -8.5 (1.87) vs Vikings

I'm done taking the underdogs for now and have switched to all solid favorites that I think should win and cover their spreads.

[nutildah]

Okay, I need to get these in before the first game starts in about 20 minutes. There's a few games I really like this week. Let's hope there's something behind my instincts, I need to work hard to get back to break even.

This is who I like for Week 9:

Broncos vs. Texans - Broncos +2 @ -110 (I feel the most confident about this one)
Panthers vs. Packers - Panthers +12.5 @ -105
Jaguars vs. Raiders - Jaguars -1.5 @ -110

Only 2 minutes to go before the start of the first game, just barely made it. Who do you guys like for Week 9?

[ralle14]

Rolled again by the underdogs, two of them lost straight up, while the Pats barely got away against the Falcons.

My updated record is now in the red (5-6 -$256). Some of these games feel so trappy, but I hope i'm on the winning side.

Buccaneers -2.5 (1.79) vs. Patriots
Ravens -3.5 (1.84) vs Vikings
Seahawks -6.5 (1.83) vs Falcons

I was also liking a few underdogs, but I don't have the same level of confidence in them since they're all road dogs.

[yahoo62278]

Doesn't look like many are interested in this thread, but I think it's a great thread for those who bet the NFL. I like seeing different opinions on games and getting more to think about before betting.

I personally like

Cle -2.5 over the Jets
Chi -4.5 over the Giants
Bal -4.5 over Vikings

I would have put the Colts in there if I had remembered this thread before now, but glad I didn't as the Colts are in a neck n neck race with ATL currently. Atlanta is such a hard team to predict this year. Never know which Falcon team is gonna show up.