Ever had a “100% sure” pick… and then it lost badly?

[Russlenat]

I want to share something that really messed with my head. There was this game where I felt absolutely certain about my pick. Everything lined up, stats, form, recent performance, even my gut feeling. It was one of those moments where I thought, this is it, no way this loses. I even felt like going all in because I believed the outcome was already written.

But when the game played out, the result was completely the opposite of what I expected. Not just a close loss, but a result that made me feel like I had read everything wrong from the start. It really shook my confidence, because I wasn’t just guessing..  I felt 100% sure and still got burned badly.

so allow me to raise this questions.

• Does overconfidence blind us in betting, making us ignore the possibility that anything can happen?
  
• When we feel “too sure,” is that actually a red flag that we’re not thinking clearly?

[Charles-Tim]

I do not think you are new in betting. All bettors that are no more new in betting would have experienced this before. They will think that they would win a bet and they will be confident about it, but at the end they will lose. This is normal part of human nature, but as they lose such bet, they will know that no game is certain for winning. It is part of the experience bettors will have while betting.

[Solosanz]

There's no such 100% sure pick, if it's 100% sure, then the odds would be 1.00x which mean you didn't earn anything in return if you win the game. Even 1.01x odds isn't a sure bet, it's 99.01% chance to win.

Overconfidence is normal and it might help us to predict better because that means we have experience and familiar with the game.

Your mistake is believing your bet 100% will win.

[Justbillywitt]

• Does overconfidence blind us in betting, making us ignore the possibility that anything can happen?
  

Yes it does, it is that overconfidence that makes us to lose bets, because at that point we are just convinced and fully focused on that sole outcome that we had projected in our minds without thinking of other possible outcome.

[/li][li]When we feel “too sure,” is that actually a red flag that we’re not thinking clearly?[/li]
[/list]

With my experience in gambling, when you are too sure about a particular game, don't play it that option you initially had in your mind, look for another possible outcome and play it. Just forget that initial possible outcome you were expecting that made you to be so sure about that game. [/list]

[lovesmayfamilis]

I often repeat to myself one truth: it's not scary to be confident in something, but it is scary to be overconfident. In the OP's case, the latter was the case. We can't be confident in gambling; if confidence dominates our choices, then we can say self-deception is at work, and it sometimes overshadows all other considerations. Something we call chance or human error can always happen, but when it comes to gambling, luck must always be added to our confidence.

[salad daging]

Hmm, you were 100% sure you would win, but in the end you lost badly? We've experienced something like this with odds of 1.20.

The course of the game changed due to a red card, causing the game to become unstable and resulting in defeat, even though it was the favorite team but still, being 100% sure doesn't guarantee anything in betting.

The point is, with odds of 1.20, the chance of winning is 80%, so there's still a possibility of losing, even though the chance of losing is small.

[mindrust]

I had a bunch of those bets years ago before I learned that there isn't any 100% sure picks. I consider those lost bets an expensive lesson. Now I know that if it looks too good to be true, it usually is. Means, there is something I don't know about that bet probably and that's why it looks that good. Now I have lost my overconfidence in my bets. I know that any of that can fail anytime. Unless I do arbitrage/ev betting, I can't be sure of anything and as you know these strategies are banned by the casinos mostly. What I need is good enough, and these bets often end up winners. Think about it, the winner is ahead by 2 goals and there are less than 10 minutes to the game's end and the bookie is offering 1.30 odds... That's such a good deal. I took a similar bet deal recently and won. It doesn't mean of course I will win every one of these bets but it was just an example. It looked good enough and it won. I seriously cannot ask for more.

[blomen]

there is never 100% certainty in gambling. if there is 100% certainty, you can't call it gambling. recently, i've started to think that this is being misunderstood in a few topics i've seen. if there is no risk involved, it is not gambling. if it is gambling, even if you think there is no risk, there is risk involved.

do you think casinos would give you the chance to bet on an event with a 100% chance of happening?

[Fivestar4everMVP]

I want to share something that really messed with my head. There was this game where I felt absolutely certain about my pick. Everything lined up, stats, form, recent performance, even my gut feeling. It was one of those moments where I thought, this is it, no way this loses. I even felt like going all in because I believed the outcome was already written.

But when the game played out, the result was completely the opposite of what I expected. Not just a close loss, but a result that made me feel like I had read everything wrong from the start. It really shook my confidence, because I wasn’t just guessing..  I felt 100% sure and still got burned badly.

so allow me to raise this questions.

• Does overconfidence blind us in betting, making us ignore the possibility that anything can happen?
  
• When we feel “too sure,” is that actually a red flag that we’re not thinking clearly?

Ive had exactly the same experience in the past, but mine was so bad because the over confidence I had for the out come of that match made me go all in, and eventually, I lost every single penny I had spent over six years saving, it's was a very crazy experience to be honest, one that completely changed my perspective towards gambling forever.

And to answer your question..

1. I do not know about other gamblers out there, but when this happened to me, overconfidence did made me lose my entire sense of reasoning, I was completely deaf to the fact that anything can happen, I only came back to my senses and to this realization after I had lost my money.

2. Feeling too sure may not directly be a red flag per say, because some times, we still win the games we are very sure about. And I also won't say that we are not thinking clearly, we simply are not thinking aright, this means that our thinking is in the wrong direction, not that its not clear.

[danherbias07]

Many, many times this had happened to me.

There was a time I made a 3-game parlay, and I was so sure it would hit. But the results are so bad that I was so down when I saw it happen. All in basketball games that I have good knowledge of, and any one of those games was never close to what I predicted.

I know there will be times like that if we are sports gamblers betting almost every day, but that is the worst that I have encountered. Sometimes I get 1 of 3 or 2 of 3. But 3 out of 3 unbelievable mistakes are just pure bad luck, and it's like all the games were rigged.

[KTChampions]

I want to share something that really messed with my head. There was this game where I felt absolutely certain about my pick. Everything lined up, stats, form, recent performance, even my gut feeling. It was one of those moments where I thought, this is it, no way this loses. I even felt like going all in because I believed the outcome was already written.

But when the game played out, the result was completely the opposite of what I expected. Not just a close loss, but a result that made me feel like I had read everything wrong from the start. It really shook my confidence, because I wasn’t just guessing..  I felt 100% sure and still got burned badly.

so allow me to raise this questions.

• Does overconfidence blind us in betting, making us ignore the possibility that anything can happen?
  
• When we feel “too sure,” is that actually a red flag that we’re not thinking clearly?

You can never be sure of anything, my record is losing a bet with odds of 1.04   I didn't even consider it risky, it was just a "free" 4% that cost me the body of the bet intended for the "main" outcomes.
But this is mathematics, 1.04 does not equal 1 for a reason. And bookmakers make a good profit even on such rare outcomes.
As for confidence, I don't see a problem with it. On the contrary, I think the main problem with bettors is that they often try to make "safe" bets instead of taking risks. I think it's better to take a favorite to win with a -1 or -2 handicap than a "reliable" double chance on the favorite.

[Zigabel]

so allow me to raise this questions.

• Does overconfidence blind us in betting, making us ignore the possibility that anything can happen?
  
• When we feel “too sure,” is that actually a red flag that we’re not thinking clearly?

Overconfidence does blind us, when we believe so much in our analysis and become like so sure we then forget it is gambling and nothing is every 100% sure over here, we should always have that in mind always that even when the stats and analysis are expressing so much certainty, do not drop your guard, you may gwt shocked at the end results especially of it is a football match, always know and have in mind that at anytime, anything can happen and there are so many other circumstances that are never reflected in the statistics and possibly in your analysis, so factoring this will help you think in probability even when you seem sure.

Whenever you feel too sure , it's a time to have a rethink, I will not call it a red flag but I will say it's a sign that you need to do a recheck and tred even careful. Gambling is not supposed to be a place where you focus more on your certainty but to focus on your risk wherein you build your advantage because the casino is always steps ahead of you so you need to look for a way to protect yourself.

[Oluwa-btc]

But when the game played out, the result was completely the opposite of what I expected. Not just a close loss, but a result that made me feel like I had read everything wrong from the start. It really shook my confidence, because I wasn’t just guessing..  I felt 100% sure and still got burned badly.

No one can really outsmart this aspect of a game  even with sure prediction there's a certainty that you can't get a 100%  pick and over confidence really blind one of knowing the truth. You can't get a game play out as planned because basically it's depended on luck anything can happen and the possibility of the odds is just 1:10  that the outcome would always be 50/50.

[Proty]

• Does overconfidence blind us in betting, making us ignore the possibility that anything can happen?
  
• When we feel “too sure,” is that actually a red flag that we’re not thinking clearly?

Yes over confidence can really make one not to think or see gambling as a game of chance that there is chances of losing as well as the chances of winning. So overconfidence can make one even to borrow money or sell one valuable to gamble.
 In the case of feeling too sure about a game , I won't say is a red flag but we should always know that no matter how sure we make feel about a game that the tendency of losing is there . Therefore the best advice is to always gamble with what you can afford to lose since no one can say with all certainty that they sure or certain of the success of any game

[Porfirii]

-snip-

so allow me to raise this questions.

• Does overconfidence blind us in betting, making us ignore the possibility that anything can happen?
  
• When we feel “too sure,” is that actually a red flag that we’re not thinking clearly?

I've recently lost a football bet I thought I was going to win for sure: it was the minute 89 with a single goal advantage but with clear dominance of the team that was winning, so I places my bet for it, with very little potential game but I didn't mind because it was a "safe" bet. But in a couple of minutes the team that was losing scored a goal, tied the match, and I lost all my money.

There's nothing like a "sure" bet, so overconfidence is not a reasonable mindset when it comes to sports betting, and yes, I have experienced myself that this is a red flag that should prevent you from placing a big bet even if the perceived risk is low.

[Oasisman]

Your words is kind of confusing, because there's no such thing as 100% winning probability when it comes to gambling. No matter how good a team against the worst team is in sports betting. The possibility of upset are just around the corner. I don't think you're new to gambling, and I think you're completely aware of it.
I think you're just a bit upset and frustrated about the result as you overestimated your bet.

[Cointxz]

• Does overconfidence blind us in betting, making us ignore the possibility that anything can happen?
  
• When we feel “too sure,” is that actually a red flag that we’re not thinking clearly?

Depends on the number of outcome like this. Do you frequently lose on bets that you have confidence? If this is just an isolated case then it’s normal because no one can predict when will a team choke especially if they are consistent in the past.

Even the greatest team or player have a bad game which is no one can predict since even the player itself don’t know that.

Again if this event is just few cases and not happening every time I think there’s no need to be concerned about it.

[rdluffy]

Of course, hahaha
In fact, last week I was 100% sure I would win a bet
It was on my favorite team, Corinthians, and played against the last-placed team in the table, which had only won one game in 23 matches, just one (Sport)
I bet big
And the result?

My team lost 0-1 to a team that hadn't won in several rounds 

That happens

[purple_sparkles]

• Does overconfidence blind us in betting, making us ignore the possibility that anything can happen?
  
• When we feel “too sure,” is that actually a red flag that we’re not thinking clearly?

Depends on the number of outcome like this. Do you frequently lose on bets that you have confidence? If this is just an isolated case then it’s normal because no one can predict when will a team choke especially if they are consistent in the past.

Even the greatest team or player have a bad game which is no one can predict since even the player itself don’t know that.

Again if this event is just few cases and not happening every time I think there’s no need to be concerned about it.

It also depends on the amount of the bet. If it’s a small amount, for example, the price of a cup of coffee, I don’t think such losses will significantly affect your financial well-being. But if you’re betting large sums of money, then in that case it’s important to change your strategy and your attitude toward the game, since it directly impacts your financial situation.

[tvplus006]

Does overconfidence blind us in betting, making us ignore the possibility that anything can happen?
When we feel “too sure,” is that actually a red flag that we’re not thinking clearly?

You can't be 100% sure of the outcome of a match, as there may be a lot of unforeseen events that could affect the outcome. Accordingly, excessive self-confidence can lead to unjustified losses. Therefore, no matter how confident we are about the outcome of the match, we still need to adhere to risk management.