Ever had a “100% sure” pick… and then it lost badly?

[Findingnemo]

The reality is there is no valid bet that is 100% sure pick on one side, it is just our assumption that made us to think that way. Reality is if two players or teams are competing against each other then there will be some chance left to win for the weaker side too. 0The reality check hit us hard of we never thought of the other outcome and may even force us to take a break until we regain our confidence which is common though but trying hard again or betting again on the weaker team and hoping for the same result isn't what we are supposed to do.

[Russlenat]

The reality is there is no valid bet that is 100% sure pick on one side, it is just our assumption that made us to think that way. Reality is if two players or teams are competing against each other then there will be some chance left to win for the weaker side too. 0The reality check hit us hard of we never thought of the other outcome and may even force us to take a break until we regain our confidence which is common though but trying hard again or betting again on the weaker team and hoping for the same result isn't what we are supposed to do.

You said it right, that’s exactly what I meant. I get too sure sometimes that the bet can’t lose, so I double down on my usual range, and then boom, I lose. It’s happened many times already and still I haven’t really learned from it. I guess it’s fine to expect 100% when you’re so certain, but the mistake is in increasing the bet. That’s probably my biggest downfall.

[ralle14]

• Does overconfidence blind us in betting, making us ignore the possibility that anything can happen?
  
• When we feel “too sure,” is that actually a red flag that we’re not thinking clearly?

Once you're used to betting on the good teams, it can make you numb to the possibility of losing and assume they're too good to lose against these teams.

I can't say it's a red flag because sometimes the easiest bets can also be these obvious favorites, so if you overthink too much, then you could miss out on these "too sure" types of bets.
Aside from thinking they're "too sure", i'd also try to imagine the other way around, and consider the angle where they could throw their games.

[rachael9385]

I want to share something that really messed with my head. There was this game where I felt absolutely certain about my pick. Everything lined up, stats, form, recent performance, even my gut feeling. It was one of those moments where I thought, this is it, no way this loses. I even felt like going all in because I believed the outcome was already written.

But when the game played out, the result was completely the opposite of what I expected. Not just a close loss, but a result that made me feel like I had read everything wrong from the start. It really shook my confidence, because I wasn’t just guessing..  I felt 100% sure and still got burned badly.

so allow me to raise this questions.

• Does overconfidence blind us in betting, making us ignore the possibility that anything can happen?
  
• When we feel “too sure,” is that actually a red flag that we’re not thinking clearly?

First of all, there should be nothing like a sure bet when it comes to gambling, understand that anything can happen at anytime that might alter the outcome of the game. We have seen big teams lose times without number and also that options that we are very sure of ends up failing. A friend of mine was sure of real real Madrid winning yesterday so he staked a huge amount on it, that game is clear example of this topic

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

Being too sure or having a great confidence about the outcome of a game that you are betting on is not a bad thing but in what ever you do to bet on that game, always remember that being 100% certain doesn't mean that the game will play in your favour, remember that you are not among the players in the game, so, while betting, use the amount you can afford to lose.

Overconfident can actually blind us to staking with a huge amount that we might not want to lose, because we are so confident that the outcome of the game will be a success but at the end, we get disappointed by the game. No bad to be confident in your games, but stake with amount that you are willing to let go of things goes South.

[ryzaadit]

It's called gambling fallancy.

While you are thinking the chance we are losing are low very low but still can get lost. It's mostly normal and on most average gambling person, these is why never betting all-in even you have a fallane 100% sure.

Never do it.

[Joeboy]

{Edited out}
so allow me to raise this questions.

• Does overconfidence blind us in betting, making us ignore the possibility that anything can happen?
  
• When we feel “too sure,” is that actually a red flag that we’re not thinking clearly?

Some bettors, when they hits like 3 or maybe 4 wins in a row, their level of their confidence increases and most times they stop respectingg the fact that anything could go wrong, it's more like the higher the win, the less careful some persons become and that is most times the foundation of their disaster..... But here is my honest truth, one should bet with the  mindset that lose could occur, and when one adopts this mindset, he/she will bet only the the funds they can afford to lose.

[Patikno]

I want to share something that really messed with my head. There was this game where I felt absolutely certain about my pick. Everything lined up, stats, form, recent performance, even my gut feeling. It was one of those moments where I thought, this is it, no way this loses. I even felt like going all in because I believed the outcome was already written.

But when the game played out, the result was completely the opposite of what I expected. Not just a close loss, but a result that made me feel like I had read everything wrong from the start. It really shook my confidence, because I wasn’t just guessing..  I felt 100% sure and still got burned badly.

so allow me to raise this questions.

• Does overconfidence blind us in betting, making us ignore the possibility that anything can happen?
  
• When we feel “too sure,” is that actually a red flag that we’re not thinking clearly?

Well, I think almost every bettor or gambler has experienced the same thing as you, including me. If it has happened (or just happened), the next thing we do is try to calm ourselves down, because we usually experience at least a little stress due to the loss. However, if we want to do the same thing again in the future, it should be better to prepare ourselves for all possibilities, or perhaps we can change our confidence from 100% to 99%, this aims to feel prepared for the loss. In other words, if we want to eat a hot chili, we must be prepared for the consequences, especially we must know what we will do after eating the hot chili. I hope this can be a reminder for us.

[Woodie]

so allow me to raise this questions.

• Does overconfidence blind us in betting, making us ignore the possibility that anything can happen?
  

Yes overconfidence is what makes people lose money actually especially If you leverage the stats to make your pick... otherwise after trying the 1.01 odds and losing several times, I have come to an agreement with myself that all odds are of high risk no matter how small.

• When we feel “too sure,” is that actually a red flag that we’re not thinking clearly?

Sometimes it works, but if its a game of sport other variables play a roll, like bonuses or teams playing out of relegation.. otherwise rule of thumb, you can't be too sure.

[Stalker22]

~

I think you got burned not just because the result was unwritten, but because you walked right into a mental trap.  To me, it looks like a classic case of the Dunning-Kruger Effect mixed with confirmation bias.

You werent totally sure about what would happen, but you were completely convinced you knew what the data meant.  Thats where you went wrong.

Being overconfident can cloud your judgment and feeling too sure should be a warning sign.  It usually means you have stopped thinking critically and are just going with your gut feeling.

[Fiatless]

• Does overconfidence blind us in betting, making us ignore the possibility that anything can happen?
  
• When we feel “too sure,” is that actually a red flag that we’re not thinking clearly?

How were you sure that your picks were sure bets? Did you get the game from an insider, or was it a rigged match? In gambling, there is no overconfidence because even the surest bets are unpredictable. Feeling sure could lead to wins or it can have the opposite outcome. I am careful with my bets even when I think my predictions are products of sound analysis.   

[Hispo]

There have been occasions in which I have felt tempted to wager big in favor of a team which was exceptionally good and was facing abother time which was considered to have no chance to win. The aood are always low, so it encourages bettors to stack a big quantity in order to see some money on their balance at the end of the match.

Anyways, I have never fell over-confidence when comes to betting as I try to recall myself nothing is certain when comes to betting or gambling, but I think I was almost certainly losing money if I had wagered in favor of my country (Venezuela) in the lastest football matches to classify for the incoming world cup. Fortunately, I did not get over-confident and keep my money at bay.

[skarais]

Does overconfidence blind us in betting, making us ignore the possibility that anything can happen?

Overconfidence certainly makes a gambler tend to consider higher risks, but they do not close their eyes to bad possibilities and inappropriate results. All gamblers know that nothing is certain, but there is always a reason why they consider higher risks.

When we feel “too sure,” is that actually a red flag that we’re not thinking clearly?

I don't think there's a definitive answer to this question, it all depends on how lucky a person is with their analysis and choices. High risk means high winnings, but in gambling, even low risk can result in losses. The real danger sign is not how confident you are, but how poorly you manage your time and money.

[Richbased]

• Does overconfidence blind us in betting, making us ignore the possibility that anything can happen?
  

Overconfidence is bad because imagine how disastrous it would have been if you had gone an all in due to your gut feelings and how true it all appeared after you checked stats and all of that. Let's also take it in the other way round if it had played out, you would have regretted why you didn't go an all in which will prompt you to take that decision next time and you may meet your unlucky day.

• When we feel “too sure,” is that actually a red flag that we’re not thinking clearly?
  

Being too sure about your bet is not a red flag but going outside your discretion is what is actually the red flag, no matter how true a game appears, never go above your budget.

[Slow death]

I want to share something that really messed with my head. There was this game where I felt absolutely certain about my pick. Everything lined up, stats, form, recent performance, even my gut feeling. It was one of those moments where I thought, this is it, no way this loses. I even felt like going all in because I believed the outcome was already written.

But when the game played out, the result was completely the opposite of what I expected. Not just a close loss, but a result that made me feel like I had read everything wrong from the start. It really shook my confidence, because I wasn’t just guessing..  I felt 100% sure and still got burned badly.

so allow me to raise this questions.

• Does overconfidence blind us in betting, making us ignore the possibility that anything can happen?
  
• When we feel “too sure,” is that actually a red flag that we’re not thinking clearly?

look at my bet:



In this bet, I honestly considered it a low-risk bet. I didn't expect Real Madrid to be humiliated against Atlético Madrid. Note that I bet on Real Madrid to win or draw, just to be more certain, but what I saw in the Real Madrid vs. Atlético Madrid game was something that shocked me and that I didn't expect.

With that, I want to tell you that in football or sports betting, anything can happen. Even in a game with odds of @1.01, this team can still lose. I've seen this happen many times. That's why you should never bet your entire bankroll because you're convinced you'll win the bet. Don't make this mistake.

[Obim34]

so allow me to raise this questions.

• Does overconfidence blind us in betting, making us ignore the possibility that anything can happen?
  
• When we feel “too sure,” is that actually a red flag that we’re not thinking clearly?

From your explanation, it tells us that overconfidence do blind us, as much as i know that there is no certainty in whatever event i bet on makes me rely on the odds that anything is possible to happen, hopeful to win and ready to incur any loss.  

It is normal to feel some way after losing your bet, but it shouldn't be much for you to get over, if you can't mentally move away from your loss, and pick too many emotions along side then its a big red flag to judgement, you probably will need some time off from gambling.

[Perfectbaby]

Have this in mind and do not forget it for your health safety.. always know that winning comes when you least expected it and never expected winning on a game you think and feels sure of it. I have had similar experiences towards games and I know how I had loses in most games that has clearly written to be winning but at the ends it turns the opposite, and of course I don't have to over worried myself or feels so ashamed of myself because I know that gambling is not a game of certainties rather a game of probability and chances.

For you to have thick skin while gambling, always have what I said above while gambling, and for sure it's actually good to be positive while gambling but at same time have this at the back of your mind that things doesn't go the way you have think in your heart and mind, rather randomness always makes it choices where possibilities is less welcome while probability is highly plays and major roles.

[Z-tight]

I have watched football long enough to know that anything is possible, even an underdog team can pull up a surprise and beat a team with odds of 1.02. This is why i don't believe in a 100% pick, because i have seen it fail so many times.

My parlays are usually made up of decent odds. Those 100% picks are usually very small odds and they could be disappointing, i prefer spreading my net into decent odds and see what happens, at least the possible winnings would be worth my while if i get lucky and win.

[Sticky Bomb]

I guess the reason it messed with your head badly was because you threw a bigger amount in it due to over confidence. Well it's was another bitter experience to remind you that there is no 100% game prediction. Every game has a good possibility of losing. I've been in that situation where I thought I was 100% certain of an outcome and got disappointed so I'm always very cautious of being driven by over confidence and throwing big sums into single games.

[kotajikikox]

I want to share something that really messed with my head. There was this game where I felt absolutely certain about my pick. Everything lined up, stats, form, recent performance, even my gut feeling. It was one of those moments where I thought, this is it, no way this loses. I even felt like going all in because I believed the outcome was already written.

You should have known. Because in sports, there is nothing guaranteed. Literally anything can happen in live sports and sometimes a match can be turned around at the last minute.

• When we feel “too sure,” is that actually a red flag that we’re not thinking clearly?

Not necessarily but if you are too sure, you should lower down your expectations a little bit or else you might end up too disappointed. It happens that you will feel confident because of analysis.