Ever had a “100% sure” pick… and then it lost badly?

[DaNNy001]

This is not a new experience for people that have been betting for a while...old gamblers know that there is no such thing as a sure bet in sports...you are betting on humans not machines, it's possible for anything to happen at the end of the day...This is the reason why it is advisable to always stake what you can afford to lose no matter how sure you think the bet might seem..gamble responsibly

[Fivestar4everMVP]

This is not a new experience for people that have been betting for a while...old gamblers know that there is no such thing as a sure bet in sports...you are betting on humans not machines, it's possible for anything to happen at the end of the day...This is the reason why it is advisable to always stake what you can afford to lose no matter how sure you think the bet might seem..gamble responsibly

You are absolutely right, but before the old gamblers came to the knowledge that there are absolutely no sure bets in sports betting, they must have experienced it, they must have tried and lost and this is where the experience came from...

I don't know if I mentioned this in my previous comment on this thread, but I myself have had my own first hand experience, found a game I already knew very well who the winner would be, at the end, the team I was looking very down on ended up winning that match.
So yeah, there is nothing like a sure game in sports betting, because the big team definitely stand a better chance of beating the smaller, but the smaller also have a chance of beating the big team, this is the beauty of sports.

[TheUltraElite]

Its gambling and you can never be 100% sure, which is the only thing to be sure of.

Games often turn out bad and not in your favour even if it might have seemed a no brainer. You can say it was your bad luck or break your head over the reasons why it might have gone bad.

Recoup the loss and continue is what people will suggest. Dont feel regret and limit your capital.

[Ziskinberg]

Recoup the loss and continue is what people will suggest. Dont feel regret and limit your capital.

It’s not something I should be putting in my mind, because that just feels like I’m chasing losses, and that’s exactly what leads to addiction. I’m not going to do this anymore, since I’ve already experienced the downside in the past when I wasn’t responsible with bankroll management.

The focus should be on winning, but in a slow and steady way. That’s why bankroll management exists. It’s fine to be confident, but at the end of the day what matters is the actual outcome. If we track it properly on a spreadsheet, we’ll clearly see the results.

[Shinpako09]

In gambling, there’s no such thing as 100%. Maybe that’s just what our brain processes when we get overconfident. That overconfidence interrupts us from thinking straight. All the analysis, stats, and numbers don’t guarantee a sure win. From my years of gambling, I can say there’s no such thing as a 100% win, whether in sports betting or casino games. No matter how sure you feel about your bet, it’s still never guaranteed. That’s gambling.

[swogerino]

I want to share something that really messed with my head. There was this game where I felt absolutely certain about my pick. Everything lined up, stats, form, recent performance, even my gut feeling. It was one of those moments where I thought, this is it, no way this loses. I even felt like going all in because I believed the outcome was already written.

But when the game played out, the result was completely the opposite of what I expected. Not just a close loss, but a result that made me feel like I had read everything wrong from the start. It really shook my confidence, because I wasn’t just guessing..  I felt 100% sure and still got burned badly.

so allow me to raise this questions.

• Does overconfidence blind us in betting, making us ignore the possibility that anything can happen?
  
• When we feel “too sure,” is that actually a red flag that we’re not thinking clearly?

I am long past such stat in my gambling "career" and I don't miss any of those times to be honest. At first when I was playing sport betting and missed an 1.30 to 1.50 odd I was heavily surprised but then after I got used to it for me it was not a problem at all anymore. What I want to share here is how I got past it, fairy simple, I started taking notes of result of soccer games and saw that for every week there were quite a lot of surprise results in any league during the weekend for a period of 3 months that I kept monitoring these results. After that I told myself that is worthless playing when so many surprise results happen every week, I can understand a surprise result or a couple of them but when a lot happen then it is clear indication one need to stop.

[Sandra_hakeem]

I want to share something that really messed with my head. There was this game where I felt absolutely certain about my pick. Everything lined up, stats, form, recent performance, even my gut feeling. It was one of those moments where I thought, this is it, no way this loses. I even felt like going all in because I believed the outcome was already written.

When it looks too good to be true, then it's most likely not. Your guts will only get stronger on what your mind choses to believe, but you were too exited so you doubted those little "what-ifs" and kept it going.

But when the game played out, the result was completely the opposite of what I expected. Not just a close loss, but a result that made me feel like I had read everything wrong from the start. It really shook my confidence, because I wasn’t just guessing..  I felt 100% sure and still got burned badly.
so allow me to raise this questions.

• Does overconfidence blind us in betting, making us ignore the possibility that anything can happen?

Obviously, yes. When we do a thing and it works exactly like we planned, we'll always feel like we can do it again without any limitations. Well, that's not true!

[/li][li]When we feel “too sure,” is that actually a red flag that we’re not thinking clearly?[/li]
[/list]

Of course... There's never a thing like sure games; if the bookies don't even know who's winning, then who predicts "sure games"?

[Nahl]

Being over confidence is not always be bad because in my opinion as a gambler i think we should believe in ourself when decide to placing the bets and it's necessary to ensure we will bets on the right pick but this is gambling that i have said before although we were fully confident with our bets slip but don't mean it will have 100% winning rates because there is always a chance of losing our money even it is small percentages

For sport betting sometimes we have seen strong teams were playing bad and lost although they have good statistics from their previous games and on the paper they will surely beat their opponents but sometimes the outcomes was beyond our expectations and as i said before although we were fully confident but we cannot control our bets results

[knowngunman]

so allow me to raise this questions.

• Does overconfidence blind us in betting, making us ignore the possibility that anything can happen?
  
• When we feel “too sure,” is that actually a red flag that we’re not thinking clearly?

I think you should know already that overconfidence even in other aspects of life mostly lead to disappointment, not only in gambling. When you are too confident, you're likely to overlook the area you're supposed to make adjustments thinking everything is under your control.

And yes, when you feel too sure it means one is not thinking clearly because if you think clearly, you'll realise that nothing is too sure in this industry except assurance to lose your money in a slightest chance.

[bubilas]

so allow me to raise this questions.

• Does overconfidence blind us in betting, making us ignore the possibility that anything can happen?
  
• When we feel “too sure,” is that actually a red flag that we’re not thinking clearly?

The favorite effect is incredibly powerful. I don't know how it happens, but every time I see a favorite with very low odds, I, like many other bettors, simply have no doubt they'll win. But that's wrong, because then the match wouldn't even exist. You've probably experienced this alluring effect yourself. And when the dark horse starts winning, I'm sometimes so surprised I can't believe my eyes.

[YOSHIE]

Ever had a “100% sure” pick… and then it lost badly?

Not often, but once it is the most annoying gambling bet for me, where I believe the bet can win 100% actually ends with defeat, this is really the most annoyed bet that I have ever lived.

That is the nature of gambling, we really cannot use instinct, predictions, predictions, analysis and so on perfectly gambling really demanded luck when doing their activities.

Situations like that we understand, if where the lucky days in gambling sided with us, all dreams can be achieved, that is the real gambling.

[PrivacyG]

• When we feel “too sure,” is that actually a red flag that we’re not thinking clearly?

This is probably the smartest way to think about it.  There is no such thing as 'too sure' in gambling.  The only things we must be too sure about are our chances and the way the gambling works.  I am very sure that I will statistically hit about 20 out of 100 rolls if I play a 20 percent win chance Dice game and other loss will be due to the house.

If there are other variables such as teams, there is no way you can be 'too sure'.  In fact.  I believe I was the most wrecked when I was way too sure of my own betting choices.

[adultcrypto]

I cannot count how many times I have played a game I thought was a sure pick and ended up losing serious money to the game. At some point the surer I am about my picks, the more I fail which means the games I play casually with little money are those that do give me winning. Now I simply pay more attention to the amount I'm betting and try not to be too sure about any game since there is no certainty in the business.

[Lida93]

Yes, overconfidence in gambling isn't what a gambler should lean on when making his predictions on any game as no game is 100% sure, we have to apply a risk possible event change to it which will help us not go all in with our staking on the game. Because what makes most gamblers especially sport bettors put in funds they can't afford to lose into any game is when they get overconfident on the game playing as they have analysed it to go base on the analysis results. Frankly , It's just a red flag.

[Fredomago]

And overconfidence also lead us to place a certain amount that most of the time we are not willing to let go, a kind of feeling when you lose your pick, you wanted to chase it back since you think that you almost make it, another try may give the chance to recover your loses as quick as possible, it's tough especially when you feel like you already done your part and it's luck that's not permits you to win, still better to keep in mind that gambling is a risky activity and nothing is assured until the last pronouncement that your pick wins it.

[Pandu Geddon]

Does overconfidence blind us in betting, making us ignore the possibility that anything can happen?
When we feel “too sure,” is that actually a red flag that we’re not thinking clearly?

I had a similar experience. I even allocated all my deposits to a single bet that I was very confident would win. Usually, I would split it into several bets, but since I saw there weren't many matches to choose from, I ended up putting it all on one. The result was the same as what you experienced. Confidence can sometimes be misleading. What makes it worse is the feeling after a loss, which is hard to accept. Maybe you feel the same way, it's like not wanting to place any more bets.

[asriloni]

Of course, hahaha
In fact, last week I was 100% sure I would win a bet
It was on my favorite team, Corinthians, and played against the last-placed team in the table, which had only won one game in 23 matches, just one (Sport)
I bet big
And the result?

My team lost 0-1 to a team that hadn't won in several rounds 

That happens

Not only you, but me too. I was 100% sure Chelsea would be winning their game against MU. I got a lot of optimism caused by they statistically better than their opponent, but a red card changed everything.

It gives me a lesson to never fully trust my favorite club even after they gave me some optimism in the previous games. So good for me i decide to pick alternative bet in their game against Brighton, then i won it. 

Our cases are really represent OP's case. Being overcofidence can sometimes kill our expectation, and it's hurt.

[sunsilk]

Does overconfidence blind us in betting, making us ignore the possibility that anything can happen?

Yeah, like what you have been through. We can say that it happens to everyone that when we're overconfident with the bets we put, an opposite result could give us that disappointment because it was unexpected.

And so, when we bet we should have less expectation even if we're so confident that we can win it 100%.

When we feel “too sure,” is that actually a red flag that we’re not thinking clearly?

Not really.

When we feel too sure, that's just us, our feelings that confirms that we're on a better side. While our guts can't be assured at most times but, it's a good way of determining of what we feel.

If it turns out that we're right on that, we will praise ourselves but if not, just go easy on it for easier acceptance.

[Kelward]

so allow me to raise this questions.

• Does overconfidence blind us in betting, making us ignore the possibility that anything can happen?
  
• When we feel “too sure,” is that actually a red flag that we’re not thinking clearly?

From my experience and shared experiences from other gamblers overconfidence is not needed in gambling, it is the fastest way to lose your money. How can you be overconfident when you don't have a say in how a game ends, you can only stake your money and hope that you will win. It doesn't matter how familiar you are and how good you are at analysis you still need luck to win, your familiarity and experiences are not enough. That is why it is highly recommended to always use small amounts to gamble. Overconfidence should be a red flag that you're not in control of the outcome of the game that you want to bet on, it is only your bankroll that you have a total control over.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

I guess the reason it messed with your head badly was because you threw a bigger amount in it due to over confidence. Well it's was another bitter experience to remind you that there is no 100% game prediction. Every game has a good possibility of losing. I've been in that situation where I thought I was 100% certain of an outcome and got disappointed so I'm always very cautious of being driven by over confidence and throwing big sums into single games.

I think a lot of bettors or every sport bettor have had this experience too, because if you are too knowledgeable about a team, you can tell when they are going to win a game without doubt of their performance, staking on such a game means you are sure that they must win that game but in a situation where luck run against them, you will end up losing the bet, not because you were wrong in your prediction but because the team was was not lucky.