Ever had a “100% sure” pick… and then it lost badly?

[pawanjain]

I want to share something that really messed with my head. There was this game where I felt absolutely certain about my pick. Everything lined up, stats, form, recent performance, even my gut feeling. It was one of those moments where I thought, this is it, no way this loses. I even felt like going all in because I believed the outcome was already written.

But when the game played out, the result was completely the opposite of what I expected. Not just a close loss, but a result that made me feel like I had read everything wrong from the start. It really shook my confidence, because I wasn’t just guessing..  I felt 100% sure and still got burned badly.

so allow me to raise this questions.

• Does overconfidence blind us in betting, making us ignore the possibility that anything can happen?
  
• When we feel “too sure,” is that actually a red flag that we’re not thinking clearly?

I know how that feels because I have been there myself and thought that this bet or this trade would definitely go in my favor but it ended up going opposite.
It's quite common to see such things happening. It's all about probabilities and if there is even the slightest probability of it happening then it will happen at some point of time.
If it happened with you then just call it a bad day and may be try some other day but always bet or trade within your limits.
Never go all in just thinking that you are 100% sure because you never are.

[mcdouglasx]

You yourself proved your point, bets are never going to be 100% certain, maybe your intuition was the most logical, maybe your choices were the ones with the best probability, but the fact that you lost doesn't mean that you did wrong, but rather that the unexpected happened. I think your mistake was mostly forgetting about that possibility and putting it aside, since that can make you bet more money than you really should.

[mirakal]

Reality is, no one should be too sure with gambling. Because aside that the outcomes are unpredictable, it’s also the nature of gambling that keeps the thrill and excitement for gamblers. So if you think you’re overconfident with your bets, it’s just normal especially if you know the game well but believe me that’s not a good practice, it will only lead to a bigger losses instead.

I’m saying not because it’s the fact with gambling, but because this is from my real-life experience. And most of the highly confident gamblers, they end up crossing their lines and lose too much.

[aoluain]

Reality is, no one should be too sure with gambling. Because aside that the outcomes are unpredictable, it’s also the nature of gambling that keeps the thrill and excitement for gamblers. So if you think you’re overconfident with your bets, it’s just normal especially if you know the game well but believe me that’s not a good practice, it will only lead to a bigger losses instead.

I’m saying not because it’s the fact with gambling, but because this is from my real-life experience. And most of the highly confident gamblers, they end up crossing their lines and lose too much.

No we shouldnt be too sure about our bets because there is always a chance
we are wrong in sports betting. There is no such thing as a "sure bet" nobody
can tell the future and because there is human involvement - anything can happen
which can either support or destroy our bets even in cases where all the proper
research and analysis is done beforehand.

I would say every gambler has encountered this!

[Hatchy]

But when the game played out, the result was completely the opposite of what I expected. Not just a close loss, but a result that made me feel like I had read everything wrong from the start. It really shook my confidence, because I wasn’t just guessing..  I felt 100% sure and still got burned badly.

This happens a lot while gambling. Some of the games you have such full confidence over, you bet a lot of money they usually end up in the gutter. Most times such games might come from a trusted party, someone who we have seen on a long term gambling and makes good amount from his games. If such person were to give us a game, many people would get over confident and go all in. And this is the point where we end up losing a lot.

It's not bad to be confident in our games, but it's bad to think that's nothing can go wrong. We shouldn't forget that we are in a world of probability. Where nothing is certain. One minute to the end of a match your whole game can go into blaze.

[moneystery]

Overconfidence often leads to significant losses for bettors, for example, in yesterday's Chelsea vs. Brighton match, many bettors were overly confident that Chelsea would win easily due to their performance and reputation. However, Brighton won 3-1. As a result, many bettors lost, as many believed Chelsea would win the match.
This is an example of how overconfidence can cloud objective judgment and cause bettors to ignore other factors, which can turn a seemingly safe bet into a major loss. And therefore, don't be too overconfident in one bet, always leave room for doubt, so that when you lose you won't be shocked and experience significant losses.

[junder]

In gambling, winning is inherently uncertain, so even if we're absolutely certain we'll win, losing is perfectly normal. For some, it might seem unreasonable, but there's no other option but to accept it. Thinking about it will only stress us out.
I don't think being overconfident in gambling can make us unable to accept defeat, even though losing is inevitable.

[Antotena]

• Does overconfidence blind us in betting, making us ignore the possibility that anything can happen?
  
• When we feel “too sure,” is that actually a red flag that we’re not thinking clearly?

There is nothing guaranteed in any bets even if it's a 9 players against 11, you can get surprise that 9 can play and win an 11 players on the field. You can do all the best analysis about the game you had plans to play but by the time they come to the field, you see by the time they start the game, a player get injure, this things you don't plan them and they are not expected but if it come, it can change every settings of your bet, it can ruin everything.

Whatever you do in bets, make sure to have a back up to get your wager back, this strategy doesn't work all the time but you can utilize it very well eventually if you don't win anything at the end of the day, you can get more what you wager or even more than what you wager by staking two difference games, one should be less games and simple option, low risk and that's it. If it turned to be win games, you are going to have your both money in the bag.

[Mr. Magkaisa]

I will give you one of the most painful bet (out of many). this is recent

Filipina tennis star Alex Eala bowed out of contention in the Jingshan Open after a loss to New Zealand's Lulu Sun in the semifinals, Saturday afternoon.

The 24-year-old Sun (RANK 146)  overcame a loss in the opening set to eliminate Eala, 3-6, 6-4, 6-2, and advance to the finals of the WTA125 competition.

1 Set in favor of PH pride tennis prodigy of the country, but did not win the game. I thought It was 100 percent win but came up short!
Theres no 100 percent in sports unless the time ran out or the game ended.

[tsaroz]

I want to share something that really messed with my head. There was this game where I felt absolutely certain about my pick. Everything lined up, stats, form, recent performance, even my gut feeling. It was one of those moments where I thought, this is it, no way this loses. I even felt like going all in because I believed the outcome was already written.

But when the game played out, the result was completely the opposite of what I expected. Not just a close loss, but a result that made me feel like I had read everything wrong from the start. It really shook my confidence, because I wasn’t just guessing..  I felt 100% sure and still got burned badly.

so allow me to raise this questions.

• Does overconfidence blind us in betting, making us ignore the possibility that anything can happen?
  
• When we feel “too sure,” is that actually a red flag that we’re not thinking clearly?

Yes it does happens.
I generally don't gamble on very low odds so I'm always ready in my mind that I could lose but sometimes there are instance when I believe some game are 100% going one sided and bet on it or rather add it as a parlay as my bookmaker gives bonuses on having as many parlay bets. So, if I'm having 3 or 4 parlay bets, I look for sure wins even if they are 1.01 just to add up to my parlay numbers to get better bonuses and yes sometimes the least expected ones would fail you.
Being overconfident or eeling too sure is a red flag that may destroy our betting strategies and even led to unexpected losses.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

In gambling, winning is inherently uncertain, so even if we're absolutely certain we'll win, losing is perfectly normal. For some, it might seem unreasonable, but there's no other option but to accept it. Thinking about it will only stress us out.
I don't think being overconfident in gambling can make us unable to accept defeat, even though losing is inevitable.

For old and experienced gamblers, they should already know that gambling losses on sure games can still turn out to be bad, it doesn't matter whether the person did the prediction properly or not, what must be, must be, and those who are experienced in gambling already have it in mind that even a game believed to be 100% sure can still be a lose, so they will stake with only an amount that they can afford to lose.

[Slow death]

I will give you one of the most painful bet (out of many). this is recent

Filipina tennis star Alex Eala bowed out of contention in the Jingshan Open after a loss to New Zealand's Lulu Sun in the semifinals, Saturday afternoon.

The 24-year-old Sun (RANK 146)  overcame a loss in the opening set to eliminate Eala, 3-6, 6-4, 6-2, and advance to the finals of the WTA125 competition.

1 Set in favor of PH pride tennis prodigy of the country, but did not win the game. I thought It was 100 percent win but came up short!
Theres no 100 percent in sports unless the time ran out or the game ended.

In my case, last week I placed a bet on 7 games. It was a parlay. All 6 games had odds above @1.60, and the total odds were very good, over @6.00. However, I saw that the team I like would win easily because they would be playing against a weak opponent. So, I added the team I like that had odds of @1.05, and to my dismay, I got the 6 games right that had odds above @1.60, but I was wrong precisely in the game with odds of @1.05. And worse, I watched that game.

The team I like was winning until the 90th minute, plus 5 minutes. I got up to celebrate and saw a shot from the opponent and the ball went into the goal of the team I like. Man, I was speechless. I couldn't believe what I was seeing. I lost my bet because of a game with odds of @1.05.

[Fredomago]

I will give you one of the most painful bet (out of many). this is recent

Filipina tennis star Alex Eala bowed out of contention in the Jingshan Open after a loss to New Zealand's Lulu Sun in the semifinals, Saturday afternoon.

The 24-year-old Sun (RANK 146)  overcame a loss in the opening set to eliminate Eala, 3-6, 6-4, 6-2, and advance to the finals of the WTA125 competition.

1 Set in favor of PH pride tennis prodigy of the country, but did not win the game. I thought It was 100 percent win but came up short!
Theres no 100 percent in sports unless the time ran out or the game ended.

Seems a secure bet if basing from their rankings and from the way Alex is playing, though just like what you said it was a great first set from her but the 2 remaining was taken by Sun to advanced it was a hard fought for Alex but it's not for her to win, moving back to the topic, as a fellow countrymen I also support her by placing small amount of my spare money while waiting for the outcome, I also in the impression that she will continue her winning streaks as she comes from a previous title win back in Brazil.

[rachael9385]

I do not think you are new in betting. All bettors that are no more new in betting would have experienced this before. They will think that they would win a bet and they will be confident about it, but at the end they will lose. This is normal part of human nature, but as they lose such bet, they will know that no game is certain for winning. It is part of the experience bettors will have while betting.

Someone who is already used to that system isn't supposed to ask that question because it's a norm in betting. Overtime bettors have grown confident because informations and stats are all over and they give us vital updates necessary to predict a game but does this mean that we can always get it correctly? If there are hundred percent sure as some bettors claim then that shouldnt be considered as a bet or gamble anymore

[_BlackStar]

If this is the question - then I am sure all gamblers have experienced it.
In gambling, there is no such thing as a guarantee of winning even if we are absolutely sure about the odds. Some day ago I was sure that Liverpool would end the match with a win against Galatasaray - the probability was very high, but what happened was the opposite. Galatasaray managed to win when they were not the favorites - Liverpool actually lost to the favorites in that match.

[LUCKMCFLY]

• Does overconfidence blind us in betting, making us ignore the possibility that anything can happen?
  
• When we feel “too sure,” is that actually a red flag that we’re not thinking clearly?

For me both things are very dangerous, neither is certain and we should not be too sure about Events that are probable or possibilities, any event can be easily changed due to the Slightest change in a detail , that is why we should not be a believer in such things, that is why in Chance there is no mathematical formula that models the exact behaviors of Games.

[Issa56]

so allow me to raise this questions.

• Does overconfidence blind us in betting, making us ignore the possibility that anything can happen?
  

When you are gambling you shouldn’t be so confident that you are going to win, even if you are sure that you are going to win, always have it in mind that anything can happen, so you have to be so careful. I have placed bet in some matches, and I was so sure that my prediction will be right, but at the end, I ended up losing, it has happened to me multiple times, so whenever I want to place a bet and am sure about the bet, am still always cautious, I don’t gamble with the amount which I think will affect me Incase I lose it because I know anything can happen, I might be sure, but at the end my prediction will be wrong. [/list]

[Perfectbaby]

If this is the question - then I am sure all gamblers have experienced it.
In gambling, there is no such thing as a guarantee of winning even if we are absolutely sure about the odds. Some day ago I was sure that Liverpool would end the match with a win against Galatasaray - the probability was very high, but what happened was the opposite. Galatasaray managed to win when they were not the favorites - Liverpool actually lost to the favorites in that match.

That is why I said there are too much manipulation in gambling because sometimes you could be that sure that a game is going to win due to the teams playing the match and when betting you could bet against the weaker team without knowing that the weaker team could actually win. I have personal experience this before where I think the lower team loses the match but at dying minutes the game just changes without knowing what was happening and that was how I lost the game entirely.

[MystPhysX]

Oh yeah I definitely have had "100%"'s fall through. I very quickly learned that there would be no point betting on an outcome if it truly was 100%, because much smarter people figure out the odds and there would be no benefit to be had on a sure outcome.

[Gozie51]

• Does overconfidence blind us in betting, making us ignore the possibility that anything can happen?
  

Yes it does. Many people were confident that PSG would defeat Chelsea including myself but just few people felt otherwise. Those who felt PSG would win with such confidence increased their bet but were disappointed at the end. So many times it has happened that way and we get disappointed because of over confidence. However, it is still what we need to bet on a pick. If you don't have the confidence, you won't bet on it.

• When we feel “too sure,” is that actually a red flag that we’re not thinking clearly?

I don't think it is suppose to be a red flag because you actually need some level of certainty to bet on a game. You will have confidence in the pick before you finally bet on it. But the dangerous thing is that we don't need to empty our bankroll because we feel confident about some games because anything can still happen, we need to be conscious of unnecessary picks.