Ever had a “100% sure” pick… and then it lost badly?

[DubemIfedigbo001]

• When we feel “too sure,” is that actually a red flag that we’re not thinking clearly?

"Feeling too sure" is when people makes the biggest mistakes from my experience. They may tend to use bigger amounts to gamble since they are totally convinced they would win the bet, then they forget that there is no guarantee in gambling and some stupid gamblers may even go to unnecessary lengths of gambling outside their budgets or even getting loans to bet one sure game but reality dawns on them when such bets looses.

"Feeling too sure" have landed some people into serious financial challenges, and some very bad debts, so the next time you start "feeling too sure" about a game, just be sure to stake it only with what you can afford to loose.

[Odogwu-Blockchain]

This cause of this might be match fixing especially clubs in English premier League and some other leagues that practice match fix, the board of directors behind certain match usually bribe the coach or the ref to manipulate the outcome to their own favor, causing bet to be sure of winning going opposite.

This normally happens too which isn't new in the betting industry, you find it surprising to see underdogs winning a one goal difference against the bigger boys.

It hurts.

[batang_bitcoin]

When we feel “too sure,” is that actually a red flag that we’re not thinking clearly?

If we have a history of being too confident and too sure with the bets we're making and in the end we have won, we won't be thinking that clearly anymore because we trust ourselves a lot and the guts pertains to those bets. So, we can't blame and stop those gamblers who are overconfident of themselves and it doesn't have to go through thorough inspection for them to check each bet that they're making. Everyone who's good in sports betting have their own losing streak as well, so what happens are not new but it's a fair thought that we're having.

[iBaba]

You yourself proved your point, bets are never going to be 100% certain, maybe your intuition was the most logical, maybe your choices were the ones with the best probability, but the fact that you lost doesn't mean that you did wrong, but rather that the unexpected happened. I think your mistake was mostly forgetting about that possibility and putting it aside, since that can make you bet more money than you really should.

The moment you convince yourself to think that a particular bet is 100 percent sure that is exactly when the reality of gambling becoming unsure and uncertain finally decides to hit you and humble you. It's like a case of being sure that Brazil will win over Cameroon only to find out Cameroon winning or the case of being sure that Real Madrid will beat Atletico Madrid only to find out that Atletico Madrid flogged Real Madrid with 5 goals. No matter how good you think you understand the stats or forms, there is always that unpredictable factor in sports that can flip every thing in the other direction you never thought of. We should always train our minds to be very firm about the fact that gambling no matter how good and lucky your predictions are always, is a game of luck and chances. Your predictions can fail and not work so there's no any certain or 100 percent sure approach to gambling.

[Kelward]

You yourself proved your point, bets are never going to be 100% certain, maybe your intuition was the most logical, maybe your choices were the ones with the best probability, but the fact that you lost doesn't mean that you did wrong, but rather that the unexpected happened. I think your mistake was mostly forgetting about that possibility and putting it aside, since that can make you bet more money than you really should.

It's not wrong to believe in your bets, a little confidence is needed to keep you positive but that shouldn't make you to be 100% certain. We shouldn't underestimate the power of luck when we gamble, everything might seem perfect for the favorite to effortlessly win but surprisingly the underdog will upset your perfect plan by winning. Gambling is a game of chance, you need to be lucky to position yourself in the perfect timing to win. You can use the exact strategy that gave you a win but you will lose your money so don't blame yourself when you lose.

[andywolfer]

get that feeling. It happens to everyone who bets. Even when all the stats and logic point one way, the outcome can still flip. That’s the nature of sports and gambling: uncertainty is always there. The key is not to let one bad result kill your confidence, but also not to risk everything on a single “sure thing.”

[Porfirii]

get that feeling. It happens to everyone who bets. Even when all the stats and logic point one way, the outcome can still flip. That’s the nature of sports and gambling: uncertainty is always there. The key is not to let one bad result kill your confidence, but also not to risk everything on a single “sure thing.”

In addition, "100% sure picks" usually offer little winnings in return, so it depends in each gambler's style, but I personally prefer to make smaller yet riskier bets, assuming the worst, than risking a lot of money in the so called sure picks that can lead to great disappointment in case the unforeseen happens. And rest assured that this will happen sooner or later.

[Orpichukwu]

I guess the reason it messed with your head badly was because you threw a bigger amount in it due to over confidence. Well it's was another bitter experience to remind you that there is no 100% game prediction. Every game has a good possibility of losing. I've been in that situation where I thought I was 100% certain of an outcome and got disappointed so I'm always very cautious of being driven by over confidence and throwing big sums into single games.

Once the confidence level on a game is very high most of the time, that's how the disappointment will also hit differently. The rule of the game is never to be too confident no matter how clear a game might appear to be; that little chance of it losing can turn out to be why the chance of winning reduces drastically. This is gambling we are talking about here; if all of us can treat it friendly and never put too much on a game because we allow our confidence level to go high, we will save ourselves from some big disappointment.

[Ojima-ojo]

You yourself proved your point, bets are never going to be 100% certain, maybe your intuition was the most logical, maybe your choices were the ones with the best probability, but the fact that you lost doesn't mean that you did wrong, but rather that the unexpected happened. I think your mistake was mostly forgetting about that possibility and putting it aside, since that can make you bet more money than you really should.

The moment you convince yourself to think that a particular bet is 100 percent sure that is exactly when the reality of gambling becoming unsure and uncertain finally decides to hit you and humble you. It's like a case of being sure that Brazil will win over Cameroon only to find out Cameroon winning or the case of being sure that Real Madrid will beat Atletico Madrid only to find out that Atletico Madrid flogged Real Madrid with 5 goals. No matter how good you think you understand the stats or forms, there is always that unpredictable factor in sports that can flip every thing in the other direction you never thought of. We should always train our minds to be very firm about the fact that gambling no matter how good and lucky your predictions are always, is a game of luck and chances. Your predictions can fail and not work so there's no any certain or 100 percent sure approach to gambling.

Don't let anyone decieve your thoughts and try to mess around your mental stability, the fact about gambling is that is a game of uncertainty, so having the thought that there could be some pre match fixing that give you some form of advantage is just a falacy and ways to take your money in exchange for some random predictions codes that may never amount to any winnings.

Betting is subject to luck and chances, so no one knows which bet will end up winning and which will be loses in the first place, so why deceive and waste yourself time.

[boyptc]

I won't flag it as a red flag if I am thinking too sure with the bets that I am about to do. Mentally and emotionally, that's doing me good because of how I think.

If I ignore some important things then I'll have to make sure that I won't be feeling sorry about my decisions if I think of 100% assurance of my bet.

It is my decision and opinion on how my bets shall be but if I lose, I'll just take it responsibly and that's part of it to increase our pride when we bet.

[len01]

Sometimes, as bettors, we're also big fans of a certain team. This makes us too confident, we only look at analysis from one side and ignore other important info. For example, we might feel really sure that a team will win, already did some research, and have a strong feeling, so we place the bet early. But because we're too confident, we forget to check key things like the team formation or which players will actually play.

I’ve been there myself. I was 100% sure Madrid would win. I did my analysis and felt really confident. But I forgot to check the formation and the starting players. In the end, Madrid lost badly. It was disappointing because I thought the bet was a sure win, but it turned out to be a total loss.

[STT]

This is why I prefer bets the other way round, bet against the people who are scared of losing to the extent they bet on 'sure thing' only to find out nothing is for sure not even the top teams are always winning no matter what.
  The underdog bets are always far more contested and all options open including the skip the bet, its a bad bet where as the sure thing bets are usually bad odds because people bet no matter what when its bad value and not worth it.

[happybitcoinph]

Does overconfidence blind us in betting, making us ignore the possibility that anything can happen?

When we feel “too sure,” is that actually a red flag that we’re not thinking clearly?[/li][/list]

1. Being overconfident is just a common behaviour, especially if our analysis ends up sounding perfect and has a higher percentage to win based on our own factors. It means our final pick passed our criteria of analysis.

2. Can we end up in a bet that "too sure" if we didn't analyze it properly? Therefore, we are thinking clearly that way and just trust it.

Not because we end up losing our sure bet, it doesn't mean we are too confident. Always remember that sports betting is gambling, and particularly in sports, upsets always happen and there's also a thing called "unexpected turning point".

Instead of thinking too much about that, just come back betting again next time.

[Coin_info]

• Does overconfidence blind us in betting, making us ignore the possibility that anything can happen?
  

When you become too overconfident especially in analysis that you do not want to listen to other opinions or even check out other facts and consider other possibilities that can happen, you may find yourself in a very bad position because Over confidence can be a weapon against success. This is why it's advisable that you watch your confidence level that it does not become overconfidence. I do not think there is anything as a 100 percent sure pick in betting especially since events can become unpredictable based on certain factors. This is why as an individual you have to be cautious not to become too overconfident and always entertain other opinions and possibilities while still being cautious that entertaining these opinions and possibilities do not create doubt. This will help you to evaluate the choices you've made and ensure that you are making them from a position of proper analysis and not just emotionally.

[Fivestar4everMVP]

This is why I prefer bets the other way round, bet against the people who are scared of losing to the extent they bet on 'sure thing' only to find out nothing is for sure not even the top teams are always winning no matter what.
  The underdog bets are always far more contested and all options open including the skip the bet, its a bad bet where as the sure thing bets are usually bad odds because people bet no matter what when its bad value and not worth it.

I believe it's only those who are new to gambling often have such believe that there are sure bets where losing is none existent or almost non existent, I made this type of mistake before and it costed me a lot of money, I had to learn in a hard way, now, I usually don't need a soothsayer to tell me that there are never any form of guarantees of winning so long it's gambling we are talking about..

One thing most people fail to understand is that, if there were really sure bets, like bets where you win no matter what, who in gambling will willingly want to lose their hard earned money betting on risky games where they stand a chance of losing money? Every one will alway wait and look for sure bets and only bet when they see one or more of such opportunities available in the market.

[Julien_Olynpic]

I always talk about a rule I formulated for myself long ago: "No matter how confident you are in something, there's always a chance (even a small one) that it won't happen, or that something opposite of what you're confident in will happen." Therefore, confidence itself isn't generally worth much. What matters most is what underlies that confidence. As a rule, the evidence that strengthens our confidence isn't significant enough to warrant betting large sums of money on it or abandoning risk management. Risk management is what can save our bankroll from the consequences of foolish overconfidence.

[Samlucky O]

Does overconfidence blind us in betting, making us ignore the possibility that anything can happen?

Sometimes overconfident blinds us in betting, And this often makes us think that nothing will happen, and it often results to disappointment and failure.

When we feel “too sure,” is that actually a red flag that we’re not thinking clearly?

It is vise versa, because sometimes Feeling too sure makes us get it straight while sometimes feeling too sure will mislead us. So we can't be sure even if we sure.

[TheUltraElite]

In addition, "100% sure picks" usually offer little winnings in return, so it depends in each gambler's style, but I personally prefer to make smaller yet riskier bets, assuming the worst, than risking a lot of money in the so called sure picks that can lead to great disappointment in case the unforeseen happens. And rest assured that this will happen sooner or later.

Spoken like a true gambler, indeed that unforeseen circumstance will come in front anytime and hence there is nothing call 100% pick. It might be that we are confident about the pick but we cannot be fully sure thag the opposite is not going to happen.

Riskier bets are usually big, but I guess you are keeping the capital low to avoid losses or keep the losses to minimum.

Its all personal spin to gambling. We might take small risky bets or big safer bets. At one point everyone ends in the red den.

[tread93]

I want to share something that really messed with my head. There was this game where I felt absolutely certain about my pick. Everything lined up, stats, form, recent performance, even my gut feeling. It was one of those moments where I thought, this is it, no way this loses. I even felt like going all in because I believed the outcome was already written.

But when the game played out, the result was completely the opposite of what I expected. Not just a close loss, but a result that made me feel like I had read everything wrong from the start. It really shook my confidence, because I wasn’t just guessing..  I felt 100% sure and still got burned badly.

so allow me to raise this questions.

• Does overconfidence blind us in betting, making us ignore the possibility that anything can happen?
  
• When we feel “too sure,” is that actually a red flag that we’re not thinking clearly?

If you listened to your gut then good on you for taking the risk on yourself. Its also an eye opener that even a sure thing in your own mind can be a dud. Its important to consult with some other people knowledge in the sport or game but dont let it deter you from the next one, you could  be right! Dont deviate from your gut instincts, hopefully next time youll hit it!

[fruktik]

This has happened to me many times. I've caught myself thinking I was incredibly wrong when everything went wrong. No, now confidence has faded into the background. I can no longer rely on myself and my own conclusions. Why? It's gambling. What kind of confidence can we even talk about? All of that should be put aside. Even intuition doesn't help with making the right choice. It's a delusion, nothing more.