Ever had a “100% sure” pick… and then it lost badly?

[traderethereum]

Overconfidence blinds us in betting and we will difficult to accept the result. We think we can win because our analysis says that but unfortunately, everything changes and makes us lose. We forget that the match can change anytime and lead us getting lose. That can attract us to place more and not be careful in analysis because we want to get our money back. If we feel too sure, we might not think clearly because we believe we can win. That leads us to underestimate the opponent and forget that the weak team can beat the strong team.

[Cointxz]

Overconfidence blinds us in betting and we will difficult to accept the result. We think we can win because our analysis says that but unfortunately, everything changes and makes us lose. We forget that the match can change anytime and lead us getting lose. That can attract us to place more and not be careful in analysis because we want to get our money back. If we feel too sure, we might not think clearly because we believe we can win. That leads us to underestimate the opponent and forget that the weak team can beat the strong team.

It’s not over confidence if you think you have a 100% sure pick rather it’s a total dumbness considering there’s no such thing as 100% pick on sports betting or else bookie will not offer it to bettor to avoid loss.

Even if the odds is 1.01 it’s still not a 100% winning percentage since this bet can be result to lose on bad days.

I have a lot of this high confidence bet that lose for some bad luck reason. When this bad luck force is within you it’s very hard to break this losing streak.

[fredericktaylor]

Overconfidence blinds us in betting and we will difficult to accept the result. We think we can win because our analysis says that but unfortunately, everything changes and makes us lose. We forget that the match can change anytime and lead us getting lose. That can attract us to place more and not be careful in analysis because we want to get our money back. If we feel too sure, we might not think clearly because we believe we can win. That leads us to underestimate the opponent and forget that the weak team can beat the strong team.

Right It is not right to be overconfident while betting, through this we can lose self-control over ourselves, we forget that the result of the match may not be as per our expectations, due to overconfidence it is very difficult to accept these things, due to this the chances of losing money can increase manifold. We cannot say anything for sure about betting, based on overall considerations we can only guess nothing more, we have to depend on luck to win by betting.

[Slow death]

Overconfidence blinds us in betting and we will difficult to accept the result. We think we can win because our analysis says that but unfortunately, everything changes and makes us lose. We forget that the match can change anytime and lead us getting lose. That can attract us to place more and not be careful in analysis because we want to get our money back. If we feel too sure, we might not think clearly because we believe we can win. That leads us to underestimate the opponent and forget that the weak team can beat the strong team.

In my opinion, the problem isn't just feeling 100% confident, because anyone can feel that way, as long as they don't put their entire bankroll on the one bet they feel 100% confident in. The problem lies precisely when people gamble with everything they have at once or gamble with amounts of money they can't afford to lose.

For example, if someone has a $100 bankroll, they look at the Manchester City vs. Manchester United game. Manchester United is currently a terrible team, but Manchester City isn't doing so well either. But since Manchester United is much worse, the person feels 100% confident, so they put their entire $100 on Manchester City to win and lose the bet. That's very stupid. If the person only put $5, then if they lost, they'd have a $95 bankroll, and everything would be fine.

[rachael9385]

get that feeling. It happens to everyone who bets. Even when all the stats and logic point one way, the outcome can still flip. That’s the nature of sports and gambling: uncertainty is always there. The key is not to let one bad result kill your confidence, but also not to risk everything on a single “sure thing.”

You are right, there's no such thing as a sure game to begin with, no matter how certain you are that the game would have a particular outcome that bettor must also remember that there are lots of factors that can affect the game. Sometimes it can be the injury of a particular player  or some unexpected tragedy. Every bettor that's experienced with gambling has gone through this, it's nothing new

[o48o]

I want to share something that really messed with my head. There was this game where I felt absolutely certain about my pick. Everything lined up, stats, form, recent performance, even my gut feeling. It was one of those moments where I thought, this is it, no way this loses. I even felt like going all in because I believed the outcome was already written.

But when the game played out, the result was completely the opposite of what I expected. Not just a close loss, but a result that made me feel like I had read everything wrong from the start. It really shook my confidence, because I wasn’t just guessing..  I felt 100% sure and still got burned badly.

so allow me to raise this questions.

• Does overconfidence blind us in betting, making us ignore the possibility that anything can happen?
  
• When we feel “too sure,” is that actually a red flag that we’re not thinking clearly?

Even when i know there's no such thing as 100% sure, i have bet my money on something i thought would win for sure.

Even bookmakers seem to think it was obvious and multiplier was insignificant, and i didn't do it for gains anyway, but purely for grinding my vip level higher (as you get 3x points with sports betting).

Sadly it was a rather big bet compared to usual bets, but i thought that risk was so tiny, that i rather take it then place 10 bets with bigger risk. Live and learn i guess, although i am not sure if i learned anything.

Answering to your 2 questions:

1: Obviously
2: Yes, but so is overthinking. Problem isn't with the wrong choice when it comes to winner, because if you haven't broken your budget, you are going to be fine anyway.

[@nn@_pen9]

Sometimes, as bettors, we're also big fans of a certain team. This makes us too confident, we only look at analysis from one side and ignore other important info. For example, we might feel really sure that a team will win, already did some research, and have a strong feeling, so we place the bet early. But because we're too confident, we forget to check key things like the team formation or which players will actually play.

I’ve been there myself. I was 100% sure Madrid would win. I did my analysis and felt really confident. But I forgot to check the formation and the starting players. In the end, Madrid lost badly. It was disappointing because I thought the bet was a sure win, but it turned out to be a total loss.

I've experienced something similar. It's not just the players; many other factors influence the course of a match, and it can all go wrong. Tactical and strategic clashes can sometimes affect the outcome. Adaptation or player rotation can even affect the players' morale. Even pressure from fans can completely change the course of a match. This is why we sometimes over-analyze what we see before a match. I think this is a very common occurrence for most people, as matches are inherently difficult to predict.

[Jaycoinz]

Well this is not something new , I mean everyone must have experience this one way or the other because if you are a gambler that plays and make predictions often to then there must be this one particular time that you would have gotten or experience this certainty of a game where you will feel that there is no way there are going to play anything opposite but in the end of everything just as football is filled with surprises the end result showed this particular feature of surprise.

[Pi-network314159]

Does overconfidence blind us in betting, making us ignore the possibility that anything can happen?

From your explanation I believe that overconfident makes us ignore the warning signal of Lost or that possibility of anything to happen.
There are several times I have booked game and seen that such game may not play but at a point i become confused of what to play weather the prediction will play out or not, just like instinct work but later  I still lose and regret why I didn't follow the first step. So sometimes we can't blame ourselves because overconfident helps and sometimes it fails or disappoint.

When we feel “too sure,” is that actually a red flag that we’re not thinking clearly?

Sometimes not that feeling too sure is bad, but the facts is that nature is unpredictable and even when you are sure that something will happen with %99.9, there is still possibility that it will still disappoint you expecialy in Gambling. So it's hard to classify that word "sure" because we might clearly but since Gambling prediction is not a sure, it turns us down.

[Fredomago]

get that feeling. It happens to everyone who bets. Even when all the stats and logic point one way, the outcome can still flip. That’s the nature of sports and gambling: uncertainty is always there. The key is not to let one bad result kill your confidence, but also not to risk everything on a single “sure thing.”

You are right, there's no such thing as a sure game to begin with, no matter how certain you are that the game would have a particular outcome that bettor must also remember that there are lots of factors that can affect the game. Sometimes it can be the injury of a particular player  or some unexpected tragedy. Every bettor that's experienced with gambling has gone through this, it's nothing new

A common factor where even how sure you are doing your research if there's injuries that take place or a coach did not play the system so well or the players themselves not showing eagerness to win, even a heavy underdog can upset them. In gambling, there's no sure thing even how big the chance to win and even how bookies place that heavy odd advantages there's still chance that the game will go the other side.

Each gamblers including those experienced gamblers who are betting with high chance according to their deep research and knowledge about the game, they also have that upset experienced, the only thing that give them edge is they are not dealing with it with heavy regret or they are not getting emotional, they accept the outcome and will try doing another research to pick games that may give them good result.

[CryptopreneurBrainboss]

• Does overconfidence blind us in betting, making us ignore the possibility that anything can happen?
  
• When we feel “too sure,” is that actually a red flag that we’re not thinking clearly?

Not every situation that you feel too sure is a red flag, but some times that should be a more reason why you should go for that bet although always be conscious to not bet more than you're willing to lose.

In betting, anything is possible so that should be at the back of your mind before you place your bet. There's always two outcomes to every bet you're making so don't be too sure that you put in too much money that you won't be willing to lose.

Betting should be fun and entertaining and that should be your target whenever you're gambling. If you put too much attention on the profiting aspect of gamble, you mightn't find any success because you'll always be disappointed with the outcomes you keep getting.

Bet like you're having fun and not like you're hustling for money.

[taufik123]

A real experience I had in real life in football betting.
I am really sure that the football team I support will win in the last round because it was still a draw before.

Went all in to bet on that game and I was sure the win would happen, But in the last minute my confidence collapsed because the team I supported conceded 1 goal in the last minute
and that made me regret with too much confidence too early and made this all this very stupid bet.

Losing the capital money I collected from other bets and losing the match I believed I would win.

The lesson I learned, don't be too sure of winning before you see the final result and don't put all your money into one bet, it's a stupid act.

[maydna]

That happened to me in the past. I am sure with my analysis that my favorite team can win but after the match runs 20 minutes, the situation changes. My team missed many good spots to kick and the opponent takes control of the field. I felt overconfident and said that my analysis was right.

Overconfidence can lead to thinking out of rationally and difficulty in accepting reality. Perhaps that gives a positive thing where we will not feel inferior but still, we should not have to feel overconfident. Feeling 100% of winning can make us difficult to believe that our team was beaten by the opponent and that can lead to anger or may doing bad things.

We may be far from thinking clearly if we feel overconfident. We should think that anything can happen in the field. Our team will not always win so there is no such thing. If we can think clearly, we will see what may happen and we will be careful selecting our bet.

[mirakal]

Reality is, no one should be too sure with gambling. Because aside that the outcomes are unpredictable, it’s also the nature of gambling that keeps the thrill and excitement for gamblers. So if you think you’re overconfident with your bets, it’s just normal especially if you know the game well but believe me that’s not a good practice, it will only lead to a bigger losses instead.

I’m saying not because it’s the fact with gambling, but because this is from my real-life experience. And most of the highly confident gamblers, they end up crossing their lines and lose too much.

No we shouldnt be too sure about our bets because there is always a chance
we are wrong in sports betting. There is no such thing as a "sure bet" nobody
can tell the future and because there is human involvement - anything can happen
which can either support or destroy our bets even in cases where all the proper
research and analysis is done beforehand.

I would say every gambler has encountered this!

That is because our luck only knows if we're going to win. And this is unpredictable. Sometimes it comes when we are hopeless and aren't giving effort. Yes, it is funny, but it happens to me when I don't think about my bet. That is why I don't get serious about gambling, and as much as possible, I divert my mind in order not to pressure myself. Well, as I've said, our luck never comes always. So despite doing it, winning still doesn't have any assurance. However, I don't think it is regrettable because I knew this in the first place.

[Tmoonz]

You yourself proved your point, bets are never going to be 100% certain, maybe your intuition was the most logical, maybe your choices were the ones with the best probability, but the fact that you lost doesn't mean that you did wrong, but rather that the unexpected happened. I think your mistake was mostly forgetting about that possibility and putting it aside, since that can make you bet more money than you really should.

It's not wrong to believe in your bets, a little confidence is needed to keep you positive but that shouldn't make you to be 100% certain. We shouldn't underestimate the power of luck when we gamble, everything might seem perfect for the favorite to effortlessly win but surprisingly the underdog will upset your perfect plan by winning. Gambling is a game of chance, you need to be lucky to position yourself in the perfect timing to win. You can use the exact strategy that gave you a win but you will lose your money so don't blame yourself when you lose.

I got your point about making use of strategy that we can be comfortable with so we don't get to blame ourselves in the case of losing fo course we need that confidence even when the games are ongoing because that is the fun we do talk about, infact I don't gamble or bet without my self believing though without being 100 percent sure and probably may not bet alone I will give out my bet to friends and families that cares and sometimes we get lucky to secure a winning yeah we already knew it can't work out all the times so we don't get much worried about it perhaps we don't have the power to decide the final scores we gamble and hope luck shine our side.

[sompitonov]

That is because our luck only knows if we're going to win. And this is unpredictable. Sometimes it comes when we are hopeless and aren't giving effort. Yes, it is funny, but it happens to me when I don't think about my bet. That is why I don't get serious about gambling, and as much as possible, I divert my mind in order not to pressure myself. Well, as I've said, our luck never comes always. So despite doing it, winning still doesn't have any assurance. However, I don't think it is regrettable because I knew this in the first place.

Of course, no one knows whether they'll win, and a player's 100% certainty of winning a bet shows that they're simply creating a positive scenario in their head, and these reasons are, in most cases, simply imaginary. For example, I might have thought this way before and bet a little more than usual if I thought I was about to win, but over time, I realized that I can't predict where my luck comes from, even if everything points to it. Today, I think the more professional a player is, the more they understand that nothing is 100% certain in gambling, and vice versa.

[rachael9385]

Does overconfidence blind us in betting, making us ignore the possibility that anything can happen?
When we feel “too sure,” is that actually a red flag that we’re not thinking clearly?

You can't be 100% sure of the outcome of a match, as there may be a lot of unforeseen events that could affect the outcome. Accordingly, excessive self-confidence can lead to unjustified losses. Therefore, no matter how confident we are about the outcome of the match, we still need to adhere to risk management.

Risk management is very important in gambling, some people neglect it because they are certain about a certain prediction,  no matter how certain we might be it doesn't change the fact that it's still gambling. A friend of mine lost over 300 dollars on a game, he normally bets with a moderate amount but according to him he saw an opportunity and he decided to take advantage of it because he was sure of it unfortunately he lost.

[Bigjoe33]

I want to share something that really messed with my head. There was this game where I felt absolutely certain about my pick. Everything lined up, stats, form, recent performance, even my gut feeling. It was one of those moments where I thought, this is it, no way this loses. I even felt like going all in because I believed the outcome was already written.

But when the game played out, the result was completely the opposite of what I expected. Not just a close loss, but a result that made me feel like I had read everything wrong from the start. It really shook my confidence, because I wasn’t just guessing..  I felt 100% sure and still got burned badly.

so allow me to raise this questions.

• Does overconfidence blind us in betting, making us ignore the possibility that anything can happen?
  
• When we feel “too sure,” is that actually a red flag that we’re not thinking clearly?

Straight to your second question. My answer is No. Feeling to sure about a game isn't bad, after all, it plays right just as you have felt or predicted, so it's never a red flag. The only red flag is not knowing or having the consciousness that any game, just any game, even the surest of them all can loss woefully than you can ever imagine.

To your first question, well, any gambler who is gambling and dismissing the fact that any game can loss or play against your predictions has not started and is not serious, yea. So for me, there is nothing like overconfidence and blinding my eyes to the fact that any game out the surest ones I have picked can mess up. I pick games with hopes that the options I have selected will play accordingly, but wouldn't forget that ita football, and anything can happen, yea.

Generally, in gambling, I don't see anything as sure or perfect, and that's why I have trained my heart to expect anything. Just anything can happen, nothing is surest.

[silpersurfer]

Hahaha, now that’s a dumb but very real question!    It’s the truth in the betting world, nothing can ever be full-proof guaranteed. What ‘surely’ seems to be ‘sure’ – statistics, the players, and our inner selves – is really just maybe, not definitely. Many times, it’s precisely when we’re most confident that the universe seems to conspire to show us that this is a game of chance, not absolute certainty.

But I get your point, too. If we are not sure, why would we even place the bet in the first place? He refers to it as a fuel that would make a judgment feel right even if the result is not what was expected. Thus, in my opinion, the confidence itself is not the issue; rather, it is the measure of that confidence. It is okay to be confident but let that not make us forget about the reality that in betting, anything can be a surprise.

[Nightwalker(NW)]

Of course, no one knows whether they'll win, and a player's 100% certainty of winning a bet shows that they're simply creating a positive scenario in their head, and these reasons are, in most cases, simply imaginary. For example, I might have thought this way before and bet a little more than usual if I thought I was about to win, but over time, I realized that I can't predict where my luck comes from, even if everything points to it. Today, I think the more professional a player is, the more they understand that nothing is 100% certain in gambling, and vice versa.

You can only predict and the rest of the game is in the hands of the coach, players and referee that's what I have come to understand. I believe that everyone that makes a prediction already will feel that the bet has been won until the match starts that's when you sometimes see that what you predicted is going opposite to what is playing out. I am very sure that anyone who's involved in betting has experienced this over and over again.