Ever had a “100% sure” pick… and then it lost badly?

[topbitcoin]

But I get your point, too. If we are not sure, why would we even place the bet in the first place? He refers to it as a fuel that would make a judgment feel right even if the result is not what was expected. Thus, in my opinion, the confidence itself is not the issue; rather, it is the measure of that confidence. It is okay to be confident but let that not make us forget about the reality that in betting, anything can be a surprise.

It's understandable why we take a gamble when we're unsure, but in some moments, if we feel that the profits we've made are sufficient, it's okay to cash out even if the odds are still 50:50 in this case.

Personally, I often cash out even when the game is still ongoing.
It doesn't mean I doubt my initial choice in the initial bet, but ultimately, as long as the winnings we feel are sufficient for us, why be too greedy with the possibility that the odds are still equal between profit and loss?
Even if we might feel regret after cashing out because the bet we made was correct, we've already experienced the win before, so why dwell on it?

[passwordnow]

I did experienced that, almost 100% of sureness that I am going to win that match because that's what the community and other bettors were telling. But that means overconfidence for me as well and that made me lose that bet because the match didn't go as expected and lost me money. It happens and that's one thing that we can learn in sports betting, even if the odds says of high chance of winning and it's low odd. It doesn't mean that we're going to win those bets 100% because in every game, there could be unexpected turn.

[junder]

I did experienced that, almost 100% of sureness that I am going to win that match because that's what the community and other bettors were telling. But that means overconfidence for me as well and that made me lose that bet because the match didn't go as expected and lost me money. It happens and that's one thing that we can learn in sports betting, even if the odds says of high chance of winning and it's low odd. It doesn't mean that we're going to win those bets 100% because in every game, there could be unexpected turn.

I hope almost everyone, if not all players, has experienced something like this: they were confident they could win, but the outcome turned out to be the opposite. This kind of thing is frustrating, as I've experienced it myself. But, it's gambling, and winning is uncertain, so even if the outcome is disappointing, we should accept it, not dwell on it, as dwelling on it won't change the situation. Regardless, gambling can also have unexpected outcomes, as you mentioned. Sometimes we play haphazardly and end up winning.

[bubilas]

I did experienced that, almost 100% of sureness that I am going to win that match because that's what the community and other bettors were telling. But that means overconfidence for me as well and that made me lose that bet because the match didn't go as expected and lost me money. It happens and that's one thing that we can learn in sports betting, even if the odds says of high chance of winning and it's low odd. It doesn't mean that we're going to win those bets 100% because in every game, there could be unexpected turn.

At the same time, all these unexpected turns are extremely surprising to everyone. But generally, I like to watch matches when the odds are close, and at those moments I know there's a strong showdown about to happen. Such matches are always especially entertaining; they don't feel like a one-sided battle.
The potential winner can change five times during a match. And after watching this, I feel like a squeezed lemon. But happy

[xenomorfo]

I did experienced that, almost 100% of sureness that I am going to win that match because that's what the community and other bettors were telling. But that means overconfidence for me as well and that made me lose that bet because the match didn't go as expected and lost me money. It happens and that's one thing that we can learn in sports betting, even if the odds says of high chance of winning and it's low odd. It doesn't mean that we're going to win those bets 100% because in every game, there could be unexpected turn.

It also happens in some poker hands, especially with Texas Holdem, many people think they have a good hand and in fact in those we have more fun since we fight more, so i understand your experience
I too have had exceptional hands at times and lost
I once lost with a full house of aces, just think

[Sanitough]

It also happens in some poker hands, especially with Texas Holdem, many people think they have a good hand and in fact in those we have more fun since we fight more, so i understand your experience
I too have had exceptional hands at times and lost
I once lost with a full house of aces, just think

I thought scenes like this only happen in movies, but as I see from your expereince, it can really happen in real life. You’re too confident, go all in, then boom.. someone shows a better card. That’s how unpredictable poker is. Sometimes bluffing wins you the pot, but when you’re holding a strong hand, it’s that moment you’d even bet your house. I said “I only see this in movies” because I’m not really a poker player myself, but I’ve felt that same thing in sports betting, being so confident that I thought my bet couldn’t lose.

[Cityhunter34]

It has been said several times here that there is no guarantee of winnings in gambling because is always a game that luck plays a significant role in determining the final outcome. Though, being confidence in gambling is putting yourself into more denger because your confidence can never guarantee you winnings, rather it will still result to more losses at the end of the day. However, we should always considered any amount put in gambling as an entertainment or having fun because it's a game that is full of unpredictable.

[passwordnow]

I did experienced that, almost 100% of sureness that I am going to win that match because that's what the community and other bettors were telling. But that means overconfidence for me as well and that made me lose that bet because the match didn't go as expected and lost me money. It happens and that's one thing that we can learn in sports betting, even if the odds says of high chance of winning and it's low odd. It doesn't mean that we're going to win those bets 100% because in every game, there could be unexpected turn.

I hope almost everyone, if not all players, has experienced something like this: they were confident they could win, but the outcome turned out to be the opposite. This kind of thing is frustrating, as I've experienced it myself. But, it's gambling, and winning is uncertain, so even if the outcome is disappointing, we should accept it, not dwell on it, as dwelling on it won't change the situation. Regardless, gambling can also have unexpected outcomes, as you mentioned. Sometimes we play haphazardly and end up winning.

While the frustration is there. We shouldn't expect that 100% of winning when it's with gambling. We can understand each other on this because it's a way to make us confident with the bets we do. But at some point if it doesn't go the way we want it to be, we have to accept it.

I did experienced that, almost 100% of sureness that I am going to win that match because that's what the community and other bettors were telling. But that means overconfidence for me as well and that made me lose that bet because the match didn't go as expected and lost me money. It happens and that's one thing that we can learn in sports betting, even if the odds says of high chance of winning and it's low odd. It doesn't mean that we're going to win those bets 100% because in every game, there could be unexpected turn.

It also happens in some poker hands, especially with Texas Holdem, many people think they have a good hand and in fact in those we have more fun since we fight more, so i understand your experience
I too have had exceptional hands at times and lost
I once lost with a full house of aces, just think

Yes, that's common there. Thinking that they have that 99% of winning but then, they're not expecting that someone bluffs them and raises to an amount that they are scared to fight for. And so, they loses that hand. Also in the early phases of the cards given, thinking that you've got those aces or threes but then the other hand has got full house.

[boltz]

I call that blind faith or wrong feeling  because sometimes you are so certain of an outcome for a certain event that you cannot hold yourself back from not placing a bet on that game and just like the rest of times , the outcome is different but I must admit sometimes I do follow this "sure" pick like you call it and sometimes you can end up winning great based on your feeling.

I also had bets on 1.01 odds on Dota 2 this TI and lost badly from 99.99% chance to win ...so yea ...I experienced both ways of "sure" picks/wins.

[Muba20]

• Does overconfidence blind us in betting, making us ignore the possibility that anything can happen?
  

Being overconfident is not really positive for a gambler. There are some gamblers who do good analysis and place bets after getting the right idea about the bet, but when a gambler becomes overconfident, he will make biased analysis on some important issues which will be responsible for the gambler's loss. Although we will never win for sure in gambling, but if we take decisions after analyzing normally, it is possible to get comparatively good results. Being overconfident increases the chances of loss.

[lionheart78]

I think it is not your fault, it is possible that you calculated it alright.  All the statistics and previous fights points to what you had analyzed but upset do happen in sports.  Like for example, in a sports of boxing, there are lots of matches that upset happens.  Those who are underdogs beats the favorite badly, or the one losing opponent got a lucky punch and knocked out the one leading in score, just like what happened in the fourth match of Manny Pacquiao and Juan Manuel Marquez.  Manny Pacquiao was leading on the fight and had Manuel Marquez nose show signs of being broken (bleeding), but in the last second of a certain round(can't remember the round), Manny got hit by a well timed punched (other called it lucky punch) and render him not able to continue the fight.

• Does overconfidence blind us in betting, making us ignore the possibility that anything can happen?

In predicting fight nothing is certain, and everything can happen.  It is the future and no one can tell what will happen next. Even if we pinpoint all the possibilities, we still have tho chose among the options, we have to chose only one since bookmaker will block any bet that will cancel out the existing bet.

• When we feel “too sure,” is that actually a red flag that we’re not thinking clearly?

No,it is a sign that we are familiar with the team performance and have confidence in our choices.

[xenomorfo]

I thought scenes like this only happen in movies, but as I see from your expereince, it can really happen in real life. You?re too confident, go all in, then boom.. someone shows a better card. That?s how unpredictable poker is. Sometimes bluffing wins you the pot, but when you?re holding a strong hand, it?s that moment you?d even bet your house. I said ?I only see this in movies? because I?m not really a poker player myself, but I?ve felt that same thing in sports betting, being so confident that I thought my bet couldn?t lose.

It actually happens, i assure you, you make plays where you slaughter each other and fight
With normal poker a hand like this happens very rarely, with Texas Hold'em it happens more often and in my opinion i find it more fun
I recommend it to you, with friends, it's cheap and you'll have a lot of fun

[STT]

Everyone should be a poker player, it teaches you something like playing chess can.  It should be taught in schools really
   The whole dynamic of you thought you had it then learning you can never really be sure absolutely is a valuable lesson.  It definitely carries over for gamblers, it will raise your game play outside of just cards imo and my argument its a good life lesson in risk and reading people generally.

[LUCKMCFLY]

Generally, in gambling, I don't see anything as sure or perfect, and that's why I have trained my heart to expect anything. Just anything can happen, nothing is surest.

And that is a great motto, nothing like expecting anything from anyone or anything, that is why in casinos when we play we know very well that everything depends on luck, we can have the best strategy in the world, but if there is no luck we will win nothing, unless we are betting on sports , then everything changes, but while we are in a casino playing any game it is focused only on luck.

[sompitonov]

Everyone should be a poker player, it teaches you something like playing chess can.  It should be taught in schools really
   The whole dynamic of you thought you had it then learning you can never really be sure absolutely is a valuable lesson.  It definitely carries over for gamblers, it will raise your game play outside of just cards imo and my argument its a good life lesson in risk and reading people generally.

I played a lot of poker, and it gave me a great foundation for understanding the risks I could take, as well as mathematically calculating pot odds, reading my opponent's emotions, their tells, and so on. I think this even helped me in life and gambling, so I thought through my actions more carefully and didn't rush into losing my bankroll, because poker teaches you to control your bankroll as you move up in limits. Of course, not everyone will learn these things, but every player will gain something useful, especially that you can never be 100% sure. When I thought I had a strong hand and went all in, my opponent turned out to have a stronger hand with a rare combination of cards.

[GiftedMAN]

It has been said several times here that there is no guarantee of winnings in gambling because is always a game that luck plays a significant role in determining the final outcome. Though, being confidence in gambling is putting yourself into more denger because your confidence can never guarantee you winnings, rather it will still result to more losses at the end of the day. However, we should always considered any amount put in gambling as an entertainment or having fun because it's a game that is full of unpredictable.

No doubt there is no guarantee in gambling but there are games you play with full assurance that you are going to smile after the game due to the teams you combined and their opponents, I know that it is not good to trust every team but when you play against a very small team you would be expecting a positive outcome but when you realized that the trusted games ends up losing and making you to lose money you have nothing to do rather than to let go and never trust any team.

[rachael9385]

there is never 100% certainty in gambling. if there is 100% certainty, you can't call it gambling. recently, i've started to think that this is being misunderstood in a few topics i've seen. if there is no risk involved, it is not gambling. if it is gambling, even if you think there is no risk, there is risk involved.

do you think casinos would give you the chance to bet on an event with a 100% chance of happening?

You are right about that, there's always a risk involved even though it might seem like it's certain to you. Casino games are designed to favour the house more than gamblers, so there's no way they would make a game available for gamblers to stake on if gamblers know they have a hundred percent chance of winning. The main reason why gamblers are so certain about some of their bets is just overconfidence

[bhadz]

I call that blind faith or wrong feeling  because sometimes you are so certain of an outcome for a certain event that you cannot hold yourself back from not placing a bet on that game and just like the rest of times , the outcome is different but I must admit sometimes I do follow this "sure" pick like you call it and sometimes you can end up winning great based on your feeling.

Yeah, most likely a a blind faith. We are sure that it's going to win but we don't consider that there's still a chance of losing it so, we follow it and that blind faith of us determines the wrong decision that we do. We have these bets that we are so sure with and we follow our guts because of our blind faith that we know everything.

I also had bets on 1.01 odds on Dota 2 this TI and lost badly from 99.99% chance to win ...so yea ...I experienced both ways of "sure" picks/wins.

That is a good example of picking a sure bet and with that odd, it surely is giving the vibe of having 99.99% of winning but the still ended up losing.

[Julien_Olynpic]

Yes, overconfidence is likely a red flag, especially if you rely on that confidence to make a rash and hasty financial decision involving large sums. Furthermore, if you think about it, what grounds might we have for overconfidence? Statistics and a good knowledge of the teams? But knowing the teams or players well isn't the same as successfully predicting match outcomes. We can all cite numerous cases where the favorites lost to the underdog. Here's a rule: no matter how confident you are of a match outcome, you should leave a small chance for an unlikely outcome.

[libert19]

I just commented on another similar thread, there is no such thing as, "100% sure pick" in gambling, gambling itself implies a game of luck and this element of luck can always backfire, one should keep this element of luck in mind before making a bet, no matter how certain you feel.