Ever had a “100% sure” pick… and then it lost badly?

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

I just commented on another similar thread, there is no such thing as, "100% sure pick" in gambling, gambling itself implies a game of luck and this element of luck can always backfire, one should keep this element of luck in mind before making a bet, no matter how certain you feel.

I think some gamblers just intentionally love to take the risk of losing the amount that they are not comfortable with because a gambler is supposed to know that without luck, there's nothing like a 100% sure pick, only luck can make the expectations to come true. Even some low odd game which one could think that because it's a low had, it has a high chance of being successful, those low odds still turn out to be a disappointment most of the time. I  used to have same mindset before but ever since I became more enlightened about gambling, I stopped believing in any thing as sure pick.

[bakasabo]

Such stories as «was 100% sure», «that bet is going to win for sure», «I am definitely winning that bet» always remind be a story when a person bet millions with 1.008 bet, which seems to impossible to lose, and had lost it anyway. It reminds me that in gambling, you can never be sure and there are lots of outcomes and factors that you cant influence, which will lead to losing or winning.

[Uhwuchukwu53]

The truth remains that, the word 100% sure if wining a bet can never exist, except in a case where the variable outcome of the game is already revaile to the gambler.
Gambling has always remain a prediction that the outcome is unpredictable and depends on luck, when a gambler is hundred 100% sure of the game there is no uncertainty, and where uncertainty occurs, a few gambler can closed down the casino because they will win beyond measure.

I laughed whenever a gambler will claim of hundred percent sure of game as confidence overrated on probability which outcome is uncertainty. This argument occur between me and one gambler who nook a bet told me his hundred percent sure of the bet after series of argument, I left him base on his ignorance and the bet he claimed is hundred percent sure cut about three games inside the bet. Conclusively no one can be of hundred percent sure in gambling one can run into luck but that doesn't means is as result of the gambler been sure of the bet.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

There’s no such thing as a 100% pick even if you think it is, otherwise there wouldn’t be a gambling industry with any longevity.

There will always be outsiders winning unexpectedly. Just be careful and don’t gamble with more than you can afford to lose.

[DaNNy001]

There's no such 100% sure pick, if it's 100% sure, then the odds would be 1.00x which mean you didn't earn anything in return if you win the game. Even 1.01x odds isn't a sure bet, it's 99.01% chance to win.

Overconfidence is normal and it might help us to predict better because that means we have experience and familiar with the game.

Your mistake is believing your bet 100% will win.

I'm wondering, is there anything lower than 1.00 on gambling, because you said it isn't sure, I haven't witnessed any game that played below this odd not even casino games...but still a gamble is a gamble, just because you know that it's refundable doesn't mean you should stake too high on it, for a game like crash 1.00 can be lost when it's been affected by network, so nothing is 100 percent achievable in gambling

[Emeraldo]

But when the game played out, the result was completely the opposite of what I expected. Not just a close loss, but a result that made me feel like I had read everything wrong from the start. It really shook my confidence, because I wasn’t just guessing..  I felt 100% sure and still got burned badly.

No one can really outsmart this aspect of a game  even with sure prediction there's a certainty that you can't get a 100%  pick and over confidence really blind one of knowing the truth. You can't get a game play out as planned because basically it's depended on luck anything can happen and the possibility of the odds is just 1:10  that the outcome would always be 50/50.

Sure picks can be tantamount to spending money in the dream. And some times I tage it day dreaming.
This facts that one feel very sure of his or her prediction does not mean that it will come out as fully predicted, winning as we should all know that gambling or betting are game of luck, today may be good as the wining brings overwhelming joy, and coming again another time there is losses and sudden mood swings sets in. Even suit sayer can't predict it outcome.

[Achalugo BTC]

Sure picks can be tantamount to spending money in the dream. And some times I tage it day dreaming.
This facts that one feel very sure of his or her prediction does not mean that it will come out as fully predicted, winning as we should all know that gambling or betting are game of luck, today may be good as the wining brings overwhelming joy, and coming again another time there is losses and sudden mood swings sets in. Even suit sayer can't predict it outcome.

As far as I’m concerned, there’s no pick that’s 100%, only overconfidence can make you that much optimistic that you’ll surely win that pick. Except you wanna tell me that you’re a psychic or somehow knows exactly what the future holds, then I’ll believe that your picks are indeed 100% sure, but if not? Then it’s nothing but a product of overconfidence.

[freedomgo]

As far as I’m concerned, there’s no pick that’s 100%, only overconfidence can make you that much optimistic that you’ll surely win that pick. Except you wanna tell me that you’re a psychic or somehow knows exactly what the future holds, then I’ll believe that your picks are indeed 100% sure, but if not? Then it’s nothing but a product of overconfidence.

That 100% pick is really just what we believe in our own mind, and no one can take that away from us. But if we try to be realistic, we still need to evaluate our picks over time and see if we actually hit them most of the time.

Because even if it’s not 100% accurate, you can still be profitable if your win rate is good enough. For example, if out of 100 picks you hit around 60%, that’s already a very impressive number.

With that kind of accuracy and the right discipline in bankroll management, anyone could stay profitable in the long run.

[bitcoinbookmakers88]

Yeah, 2020 US president election.. you know, THE ONE. I bet on Trump, not because I support him (definitely not), but because the 'maffs' and the polls made it look like a smart bet at the time. When the Miami-Dade County votes started coming in I was feeling like a total insider, like I had cracked the code. And then the rest of the country reported… yeah. Also bet too much. A true degen move. Still recovering from that one FML

[Questat]

Yeah, 2020 US president election.. you know, THE ONE. I bet on Trump, not because I support him (definitely not), but because the 'maffs' and the polls made it look like a smart bet at the time. When the Miami-Dade County votes started coming in I was feeling like a total insider, like I had cracked the code. And then the rest of the country reported… yeah. Also bet too much. A true degen move. Still recovering from that one FML

That probably came from his first win, when Donald Trump surprised a lot of people. After that, many thought it would be easier for him if he ran again, so you’re definitely not the only one who lost on that prediction. I think a lot of people here probably had the same expectation.

But how about the last election when he won again, did you still back him that time or were you already on the other side?

[EarnOnVictor]

It's gambling we are talking about. Is there anything 100% sure in it? I don't understand why you believe your picks are certain.

• Does overconfidence blind us in betting, making us ignore the possibility that anything can happen?
  

I hear that it blinds some people, but that's not me. What has helped me in gambling so far is my admittance of it for what it is.

[/li][li]When we feel “too sure,” is that actually a red flag that we’re not thinking clearly?[/li]
[/list]

Yes, it's a big red flag, and the obvious one eating deep into the psychology.

[Aanuoluwatofunmi]

Most of us dot tricked by others in telling us that there is a 100% sure picks for the bet they're giving us, but in most cases, I do ask myself whether if truly or these things are real, then they could have been divorced beneficiary themselves before thinking of giving it as an opportunity to other gamblers to also try the same attempt, not even at the worst scenario whereby you discover some are using their money to buy all these.

[bitcoinbookmakers88]

Yeah, 2020 US president election.. you know, THE ONE. I bet on Trump, not because I support him (definitely not), but because the 'maffs' and the polls made it look like a smart bet at the time. When the Miami-Dade County votes started coming in I was feeling like a total insider, like I had cracked the code. And then the rest of the country reported… yeah. Also bet too much. A true degen move. Still recovering from that one FML

That probably came from his first win, when Donald Trump surprised a lot of people. After that, many thought it would be easier for him if he ran again, so you’re definitely not the only one who lost on that prediction. I think a lot of people here probably had the same expectation.

But how about the last election when he won again, did you still back him that time or were you already on the other side?

Nah, I didn’t bet at all. I like looking myself in the mirror in the mornings and I’m not about to explain to kids why Christmas turned into socks and toothpaste. BECAUSE DADDY PUNTS!!!

[junder]

Such stories as «was 100% sure», «that bet is going to win for sure», «I am definitely winning that bet» always remind be a story when a person bet millions with 1.008 bet, which seems to impossible to lose, and had lost it anyway. It reminds me that in gambling, you can never be sure and there are lots of outcomes and factors that you cant influence, which will lead to losing or winning.

From the gambling I have done so far, I have experienced having complete confidence that I would win the next game, but in the end I lost. When I think back on it, I feel annoyed and foolish for daring to do it, even though it was clear that winning at gambling is uncertain. But the reason I did it was because I had high hopes, and the result was that I ended up in a sad situation.

There's a lesson I learned from that experience: it's best not to be too confident when gambling, because being overly confident is the same as being overly self-assured, and that can lead us into more complicated situations with a high probability of unfavorable outcomes.

[Inwestour]

I want to share something that really messed with my head. There was this game where I felt absolutely certain about my pick. Everything lined up, stats, form, recent performance, even my gut feeling. It was one of those moments where I thought, this is it, no way this loses. I even felt like going all in because I believed the outcome was already written.

But when the game played out, the result was completely the opposite of what I expected. Not just a close loss, but a result that made me feel like I had read everything wrong from the start. It really shook my confidence, because I wasn’t just guessing..  I felt 100% sure and still got burned badly.

so allow me to raise this questions.

• Does overconfidence blind us in betting, making us ignore the possibility that anything can happen?
  
• When we feel “too sure,” is that actually a red flag that we’re not thinking clearly?

Over the years I’ve been involved in betting, I’ve realized one thing, there are no 100% guaranteed bets. Even if it seems like the best bet in the world, you still shouldn’t stake more than you normally do on your other bets. Yes, sometimes it feels like such bets should win, and more often than not they do, but imagine what would happen if you put everything you had on that bet and lost. And that is possible, and it happens more often than we think.

[KTChampions]

~
There's a lesson I learned from that experience: it's best not to be too confident when gambling, because being overly confident is the same as being overly self-assured, and that can lead us into more complicated situations with a high probability of unfavorable outcomes.

It's not about confidence at all, you need to look at gambling as a purchase. If you make a good buy, that's good, if you make a bad buy, that's not good. If you apply this to a coin flip, buying a bet on an outcome with odds of less than 2 is always unprofitable, while buying a bet with odds of more than 2 is always profitable. Another problem is that we can accurately understand the odds of a coin flip, but we cannot accurately estimate unique outcomes such as sports games. But it is better to rely on statistics than on emotions in any case.

[AmaGold70]

It is very wrong to over confident and being too sure of your bet is equally a sign of red flag. These two things are common among gamblers including myself. There are times when someone will predict a bet, and you feel over confident, and you are 100% sure that that game will be successful, but eventually, that game will end on the opposite side. I have encountered such thing uncountable times. It is very necessary to gamble with caution, don't say this bet is sure and you go ahead staking with the money you can't afford to loose.
I have lost many times in my most trusted games, and sometimes when I record wins is on games I have less confidence. No matter how sure your predictions might be, gamble responsibly and do not give any bet 100% trust score, doing that will make you loose money because you might be tempted to stake very high on those bets you see as sure bets.

[Cointxz]

It is very wrong to over confident and being too sure of your bet is equally a sign of red flag. These two things are common among gamblers including myself. There are times when someone will predict a bet, and you feel over confident, and you are 100% sure that that game will be successful, but eventually, that game will end on the opposite side. I have encountered such thing uncountable times. It is very necessary to gamble with caution, don't say this bet is sure and you go ahead staking with the money you can't afford to loose.
I have lost many times in my most trusted games, and sometimes when I record wins is on games I have less confidence. No matter how sure your predictions might be, gamble responsibly and do not give any bet 100% trust score, doing that will make you loose money because you might be tempted to stake very high on those bets you see as sure bets.

I experienced this myself not only because of the paper winning percentage but also during the live game. The team that I bet on is leading almost 30+points on 3rd quarter and they bow it big time on the 4th quarter that resulted to lose.

The chance for that to happened is very low but it did. There’s no true sure bet on sports betting unless you bet on both sides with +EV and that is arbitrage betting which is not allowed by the casino.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

Most of us dot tricked by others in telling us that there is a 100% sure picks for the bet they're giving us, but in most cases, I do ask myself whether if truly or these things are real, then they could have been divorced beneficiary themselves before thinking of giving it as an opportunity to other gamblers to also try the same attempt, not even at the worst scenario whereby you discover some are using their money to buy all these.

I guess the "dot" Is a typo error of "got" I was also interested in some predictions page and channels on social media some year back, I was seeing them post the wins of previous bets that they claimed to be sure picks and it was all successful, I felt tempted to pay and get the game but I didn't, I observed something funny with them in how they handled complaints from those that probably lost their bet, so I guess that was why I didn't go ahead with them. These people are more intentional about taking .oney from bettors buying their prediction, they don't care if you lose or win.

[Fredomago]

Most of us dot tricked by others in telling us that there is a 100% sure picks for the bet they're giving us, but in most cases, I do ask myself whether if truly or these things are real, then they could have been divorced beneficiary themselves before thinking of giving it as an opportunity to other gamblers to also try the same attempt, not even at the worst scenario whereby you discover some are using their money to buy all these.

I guess the "dot" Is a typo error of "got" I was also interested in some predictions page and channels on social media some year back, I was seeing them post the wins of previous bets that they claimed to be sure picks and it was all successful, I felt tempted to pay and get the game but I didn't, I observed something funny with them in how they handled complaints from those that probably lost their bet, so I guess that was why I didn't go ahead with them. These people are more intentional about taking .oney from bettors buying their prediction, they don't care if you lose or win.

As there's no assurance that they'll be able to make things right each time that they provide their service, chances of losing is not by far as there's no sure thing in gambling, even how small the odds and how good your analysis if luck go against your direction, you may still lose that bet and those who offers services they can't blame those who buy their service as those people/gambler happens to believe that they can make out easy money after paying but things is unsure and upset happens.