Ever had a “100% sure” pick… and then it lost badly?

[Peanutswar]

Scores and current standing are just a reflection of their skills and statistics its easy to make a prediction on the game if ever there is a good numbers we saw so there is a potential came up that they have a higher chance to win the game but of course its a sports game still there is a chance that they might lose its on their decision making upon the game could be a wrong call and just single mistake can make a table turn. I do experienced that kind of problem every time I bet in EPL last season there is a chance they win but ended up a draw or a penalty goal.

[Strongkored]

Even with odds of 1.01, it's still not a "100% sure" pick. Or, if we choose a player with low odds based on their statistics because they consistently perform convincingly, it still won't be a "100% sure" pick, because nothing is certain in sports betting.
Statistics are just statistics to help us choose what is likely to happen in a match, not what will definitely happen.

[Jody.Drummer]

Sure picks can be tantamount to spending money in the dream. And some times I tage it day dreaming.
This facts that one feel very sure of his or her prediction does not mean that it will come out as fully predicted, winning as we should all know that gambling or betting are game of luck, today may be good as the wining brings overwhelming joy, and coming again another time there is losses and sudden mood swings sets in. Even suit sayer can't predict it outcome.

As far as I’m concerned, there’s no pick that’s 100%, only overconfidence can make you that much optimistic that you’ll surely win that pick. Except you wanna tell me that you’re a psychic or somehow knows exactly what the future holds, then I’ll believe that your picks are indeed 100% sure, but if not? Then it’s nothing but a product of overconfidence.

The 100% right choice is just a thought that occurs to players who are very confident in their gambling that it will result in a win, so they don't hesitate to gamble because they are confident that their bets will produce satisfactory results in line with their expectations. And as you said, it is indeed just a matter of excessive confidence. In fact, this is not good because it can cause players to bet again and again. Excessive confidence is not a state that can make things better.

[bubilas]

I want to share something that really messed with my head. There was this game where I felt absolutely certain about my pick. Everything lined up, stats, form, recent performance, even my gut feeling. It was one of those moments where I thought, this is it, no way this loses. I even felt like going all in because I believed the outcome was already written.

But when the game played out, the result was completely the opposite of what I expected. Not just a close loss, but a result that made me feel like I had read everything wrong from the start. It really shook my confidence, because I wasn’t just guessing..  I felt 100% sure and still got burned badly.

so allow me to raise this questions.

• Does overconfidence blind us in betting, making us ignore the possibility that anything can happen?
  
• When we feel “too sure,” is that actually a red flag that we’re not thinking clearly?

This perfectly describes the same situation that I had about 2 years ago, when I managed to make a very good income on betting and my bankroll was huge. And then there was the match that I had been waiting for for a very long time, because all the stars coincided: all my analytics argued that it was necessary to bet, the opinion of gambler friends coincided with mine, and even the AI claimed that the chances were as great as ever.
And I bet 75 percent of the yuancroll because I was sure that the moment had come in my life when I should be lucky. After all, I've never had much luck before. And in the end, I lost. It took me months to recover from my sad state.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

It hasn't happened to me, but that's because a bet that is 100% sure (not really, it's more like 99%) is actually a bet that gives a very low return. I don't bet on low returns. It's another thing if you have a hunch and believe it's 100% certain, but that's subjective.

This perfectly describes the same situation that I had about 2 years ago, when I managed to make a very good income on betting and my bankroll was huge. And then there was the match that I had been waiting for for a very long time, because all the stars coincided: all my analytics argued that it was necessary to bet, the opinion of gambler friends coincided with mine, and even the AI claimed that the chances were as great as ever.
And I bet 75 percent of the yuancroll because I was sure that the moment had come in my life when I should be lucky. After all, I've never had much luck before. And in the end, I lost. It took me months to recover from my sad state.

That's the problem: if you bet on something you think is a sure thing and you lose, it can really get you down. But in your case, the problem was betting so heavily.

[POPOLUV]

I believe that if ther are still people out there operating on convincing people that there are sure odds and more of the odds reach 100 percent sure to benefit once you stake their games, this sure odds can only work for those newly gamblers that has been experiencing lossing and then they to give it a second thought of considering of buying sure odds because i know that those odds is not advertised freely so for that they think they can experience winning by buying those odds, it will be advisable to note that as far as gambling is concerned there is know sure odds till you are lucky to see the game play the you predicted them, as a gambler never be in a hurry to be rich overnight through gambling.

[Dunamisx]

We keep claiming that we can have a pure and trusted pick in gambling, but we should be very mindful that things like this do not always happen, instead, they might be occasional occurrences, which is why in gambling we cannot do more than we can manage to cope, as long as we are yet to see the last result of a bet, then everything concerning it still remains a probability of winning or losing.

[Ever-young]

The 100% right choice is just a thought that occurs to players who are very confident in their gambling that it will result in a win, so they don't hesitate to gamble because they are confident that their bets will produce satisfactory results in line with their expectations. And as you said, it is indeed just a matter of excessive confidence. In fact, this is not good because it can cause players to bet again and again. Excessive confidence is not a state that can make things better.

Self Confidence in something as unpredictable and full of randomness as gambling can be very disastrous and mostly have negative impacts on the gambler. It’s only people who do not really understand gambling that’ll resort to feeling too confident in their skills. No matter how logical and clear your analysis may seem, winning still depends pretty much on luck and chances, and while our skills may actually increase our chances, luck is the main factor that determines whether or not we’ll win, and the sooner we understand this, the sooner it’ll be for us to start setting realistic expectations.

[giammangiato]

That's the problem: if you bet on something you think is a sure thing and you lose, it can really get you down. But in your case, the problem was betting so heavily.

In my head and beliefs she was 200% sure (makes me laugh when I think about it now) I bet what I had in my gambling account (fortunately as little as ever) on that occasion I lost miserably (I remember being very hurt by it).
It was hard, but with mistakes you learn the best lessons, I was okay with not wasting so much money. 

[Odusko]

Even with odds of 1.01, it's still not a "100% sure" pick. Or, if we choose a player with low odds based on their statistics because they consistently perform convincingly, it still won't be a "100% sure" pick, because nothing is certain in sports betting.
Statistics are just statistics to help us choose what is likely to happen in a match, not what will definitely happen.

Only the most gullible bettors will pay attention to such a claim of sure bets where none exist, just as you pointed out no matter how low the odds are, one can still lose and that is why it is called gambling in the first place is a game of unpredictability which means you can lose at any point and with any odds at all.

[NurseHub]

‎Even though you are the footballer, how sure are you to win against the other team, which is more of a game of entirely different people from different training grounds?

I believe you are not new to betting, and I am sure you already know or have heard of people saying there is no sure game in gambling. Gambling doesn't have a sure game, any one who gives you that a game can be 100% guarantee just lied to you and now you have confirm it. Maybe next time you won't be so guaranteed to stake a game and hope to win because it's a sure game. Gambling is a game of luck, it's not a club based win. Sometimes too it has to happen to us so we can learn better.

[ovcijisir]

Even with odds of 1.01, it's still not a "100% sure" pick. Or, if we choose a player with low odds based on their statistics because they consistently perform convincingly, it still won't be a "100% sure" pick, because nothing is certain in sports betting.
Statistics are just statistics to help us choose what is likely to happen in a match, not what will definitely happen.

It happened to me a few times, to bet on game with extremely low odds and still lose. Luckily I didn't bet large amounts an, but still felt bad because I was assuming that I'll win that bet with 100% chance. But now I'm avoiding to make such "safe" bets because potential profit is small and it is just not worth of risk.

[Jody.Drummer]

The 100% right choice is just a thought that occurs to players who are very confident in their gambling that it will result in a win, so they don't hesitate to gamble because they are confident that their bets will produce satisfactory results in line with their expectations. And as you said, it is indeed just a matter of excessive confidence. In fact, this is not good because it can cause players to bet again and again. Excessive confidence is not a state that can make things better.

Self Confidence in something as unpredictable and full of randomness as gambling can be very disastrous and mostly have negative impacts on the gambler. It’s only people who do not really understand gambling that’ll resort to feeling too confident in their skills. No matter how logical and clear your analysis may seem, winning still depends pretty much on luck and chances, and while our skills may actually increase our chances, luck is the main factor that determines whether or not we’ll win, and the sooner we understand this, the sooner it’ll be for us to start setting realistic expectations.

The negative effects of gambling won’t arise unless we invite them; excessive behavior is one way of inviting those negative consequences, including overconfidence. Clearly, anything done in excess tends to end badly even positive things outside of gambling. I agree with what you said: winning at gambling still depends on luck and probability, so having strong self-confidence doesn’t increase your chances of winning it just makes us gamble more aggressively. Unfortunately, not everyone who gambles understands the role of luck; they tend to ignore it or chase after it.

[Doan9269]

Personally I don't do this, but have friends that always fall a victim to something similar like this, they will always come to me and share their experience on what happened, this is where I also don't compare myself to other gamblers because everyone has their own strategy to gambling and what they can manage to adapt with, always depending on sure picks could mean that The Gambler does not have much experience in gambling or playing a particular game, and therefore may always request for external assistant each time he is gambling.

[nimogsm]

That's the problem: if you bet on something you think is a sure thing and you lose, it can really get you down. But in your case, the problem was betting so heavily.

In my head and beliefs she was 200% sure (makes me laugh when I think about it now) I bet what I had in my gambling account (fortunately as little as ever) on that occasion I lost miserably (I remember being very hurt by it).
It was hard, but with mistakes you learn the best lessons, I was okay with not wasting so much money. 

I think everyone has been through this. And I want to say that this is the best lesson when I learned it the hard way. I also bet on the favorite to win against a very weak team, and they ended up drawing. I remember that my surprise simply knew no bounds.And then I realized that it is simply impossible to be 100% sure, since gambling is definitely not about guarantees.

[justdimin]

I think everyone has been through this. And I want to say that this is the best lesson when I learned it the hard way. I also bet on the favorite to win against a very weak team, and they ended up drawing. I remember that my surprise simply knew no bounds.And then I realized that it is simply impossible to be 100% sure, since gambling is definitely not about guarantees.

This is quite common, it happens all the time. My biggest that I have always talked about was the time I made a mistake by not cashing out early on a huge parlay. I did a "fun" one based on a bonus that a sportsbook was giving, it had a bonus for anyone who does 10 bet parlay, it could have been all different but for me I just did 10 football games, 10 different matches that I just picked the winner that's it nothing more.

And 9 of them were wins and I could have cashed out and made more than ten times the money. But what happened? Well 10th game was Bayern, and if it was a win, it would skyrocket to 100x more than what I bet thanks to both one more win but also the bonus odds as well, and Bayern lost to some stupid relegation team instead, I was super shocked.

[Sonia_123]

I want to share something that really messed with my head. There was this game where I felt absolutely certain about my pick. Everything lined up, stats, form, recent performance, even my gut feeling. It was one of those moments where I thought, this is it, no way this loses. I even felt like going all in because I believed the outcome was already written.

But when the game played out, the result was completely the opposite of what I expected. Not just a close loss, but a result that made me feel like I had read everything wrong from the start. It really shook my confidence, because I wasn’t just guessing..  I felt 100% sure and still got burned badly.

so allow me to raise this questions.

• Does overconfidence blind us in betting, making us ignore the possibility that anything can happen?
  
• When we feel “too sure,” is that actually a red flag that we’re not thinking clearly?

There is no assurance or guarantee in gambling wins, overconfident gave him double assurance of winning which ended him up in disappointment as there is no 100% certainty that he was going to win the game, gambling has a lot of risk and so we have to bear that in mind and that is why we need to be careful and vigilant not to stake once or make withdrawal if  you feel that you will not make any win .

[leonair]

I do not think you are new in betting. All bettors that are no more new in betting would have experienced this before. They will think that they would win a bet and they will be confident about it, but at the end they will lose. This is normal part of human nature, but as they lose such bet, they will know that no game is certain for winning. It is part of the experience bettors will have while betting.

Yes, no one ever bets thinking that he will lose the money he is betting. Everyone has a hope that he will win his bet. This is really normal and no one has any other hope. But even though everyone has an expectation that he will win, everyone claims that he is gambling only for fun. Yes, it happens that even when gambling for fun, there is an expectation of winning because winning is the only source of joy. Our emotions can never accept losing whether there is money involved or not.

[Yeesha]

I often repeat to myself one truth: it's not scary to be confident in something, but it is scary to be overconfident. In the OP's case, the latter was the case. We can't be confident in gambling; if confidence dominates our choices, then we can say self-deception is at work, and it sometimes overshadows all other considerations. Something we call chance or human error can always happen, but when it comes to gambling, luck must always be added to our confidence.

Overconfident is alien to risks and failure, they always ignore risks as if it doesn't exist, and seems to forget that there is possibility of failure. When an individual is overconfidence he lack the ability to weigh the consequences of his actions. But since the OP has learnt his lesson, it will serve as a great lesson to him, because the mistakes of today is the greatest experience of tomorrow. Being an overconfident person doesn't make you greatest, but you ability to achieve your aim and objectives. While gambling, it is okay to be nervous and scared because you don't know the outcome of the money that you are betting with.

[Cantsay]

There is no assurance or guarantee in gambling wins, overconfident gave him double assurance of winning which ended him up in disappointment as there is no 100% certainty that he was going to win the game, gambling has a lot of risk and so we have to bear that in mind and that is why we need to be careful and vigilant not to stake once or make withdrawal if  you feel that you will not make any win .

I’m well aware of the fact that even an odd of 1.01 can make you lose your bet especially if you’re running a parlay and that game happens to be the last leg and it cuts the entire ticket.

But that aside, there have been times when I saw some picks and had this feeling of “nah! Nothing is going to cut this game” but never have I had the mind to go and stake more than I can afford to lose, I know the risk even if it looks very good and because I’m not ready yet to handle what’s to come if things doesn’t go well, I tend to withdraw and stake little amount. Sometime it does go as predicted while other times it’s just a bs pick.