Ever had a “100% sure” pick… and then it lost badly?

[Sammye3]

For the safety of your mental health,  do not take any played game as a won game until the final outcome. You can't be 100% certain about a game because gambling outcome is unpredictable.

This could be seen in a multiple bet with multiple game selections, so even in a case where you pick five selection and one game loses,  the game entirely loss. This is why it could be advised to bet on games with the best input and risk management.

[Lida93]

I've gad that experience before this is what made me learn not to depend on betting in anything, there are bets that we are sure of but in my experience don't allow this make you stake beyond your limit or way too high. There is no guarantee of winning any bet that you place amd ot doesn't matter if you do proper analysis, this doesn't really matter sometimes. Gambling is mostly a game of luck and don't think that you can always make profits because you analyze and do everything right, always remember that winning is not always possible.

I have also had so many crazy experiences in the past that had made me not to ganble anyhow like the way I used to gamble before. I don't believe in sure bet or anything to tell me that a game is going to be 100% winning because I know that anything can happen when you gamble without the full understanding that gambling is not always profitable.

in gambling I don't agree that there's any full understanding of any game that you would have to be making sure predictions about the expected outcome of the games. NOTHING is sure when it's gambling except you are talking about leagues where games are rigged and the gambler is being tipped with an early information about the rigging of the game and he quickly takes advantage of it by betting with huge cash to get high profits. But even in such scenarios you still have to be careful because it can't be a misleading information.

[nara1892]

Your experience can serve as a lesson and strong evidence that anything can happen at the end of the game. This is also why boundaries should always be set.

On the other hand, overconfidence can blind you to the risks that lurk along the way. This mentality can actually create ongoing risks because the higher your confidence, the greater the disappointment. This can, of course, invite greater emotions, which indirectly lead to aggression out of revenge.

[Julien_Olynpic]

The most dangerous thing about calculating gambling probabilities is 100% certainty. Experience tells us that you can never be 100% sure of any near-probability. On the other hand, if we move from bookmakers to prediction platforms, you can indeed find extremely unlikely events there. For example, the second coming of Christ. What percentage would you rate the probability of such an event? I would estimate it at 0%. And when it comes to football matches, I'm almost never 100% sure of anything.

[Makus]

Your experience can serve as a lesson and strong evidence that anything can happen at the end of the game. This is also why boundaries should always be set.

On the other hand, overconfidence can blind you to the risks that lurk along the way. This mentality can actually create ongoing risks because the higher your confidence, the greater the disappointment. This can, of course, invite greater emotions, which indirectly lead to aggression out of revenge.

Overconfidence is the reason why a lot of gamblers take big risks, they get too sure of the outcome forgetting that gambling is a game of uncertainty. Like you said, the higher the confidence the greater the disappointment. A lot of gamblers think that just because they applied a strategy that works they think they can always get positive results from it but that's not really how gambling works. Losing out of overconfidence can lead to frustration and this is the reason why a lot of gamblers end up not being able to accept their losses.

[Asuspawer09]

I feel like this happened to most of the gamblers, I mean you would totally going to increase your bet if you know that you have a higher chances of winning, I do this to some of the card games when you get the right cards and you know that you have like 90% chance of winning, there are also times that there are only one card that you need to avoid in order to win, but end up losing and drawing that one card that you are avoiding, thats a huge bad luck right.

For sure overconfidence is going to blind us when it comes to betting, but for me it's a worth it bet since you know somehow even though your still not 100% sure maybe like 90% sure I think it is still worth it to like increase your bet, maybe not all in but atleast increasing could be worth it since chances are increasing so the bet could make a little more room.

I dont think that being too sure could be the red flag, but the red flag is on the betting discipline. If you are going to just ignore the possibility of losing and just throw it all in on your money, that could be the red flag, since you're already losing your focus and discipline.

[Fredomago]

Your experience can serve as a lesson and strong evidence that anything can happen at the end of the game. This is also why boundaries should always be set.

On the other hand, overconfidence can blind you to the risks that lurk along the way. This mentality can actually create ongoing risks because the higher your confidence, the greater the disappointment. This can, of course, invite greater emotions, which indirectly lead to aggression out of revenge.

Overconfidence is the reason why a lot of gamblers take big risks, they get too sure of the outcome forgetting that gambling is a game of uncertainty. Like you said, the higher the confidence the greater the disappointment. A lot of gamblers think that just because they applied a strategy that works they think they can always get positive results from it but that's not really how gambling works. Losing out of overconfidence can lead to frustration and this is the reason why a lot of gamblers end up not being able to accept their losses.

Thinking that they've got the advantage and the right sets of knowledge about the game that's why they place huge amount (most of the time) and ended up losing, it's always better to stay calm and just stake the amount that you can let go, though there are instances that you will feel that you can make a big one but moving forward just in case you missed one better to go back with your usual betting habits and not to fall to any type of aggression that will lead you to bet more.

[Smartprofit]

The most dangerous thing about calculating gambling probabilities is 100% certainty. Experience tells us that you can never be 100% sure of any near-probability. On the other hand, if we move from bookmakers to prediction platforms, you can indeed find extremely unlikely events there. For example, the second coming of Christ. What percentage would you rate the probability of such an event? I would estimate it at 0%. And when it comes to football matches, I'm almost never 100% sure of anything.

On prediction platforms (such as Polymarket), in addition to the wording of the bet terms themselves, you should also carefully read the additional conditions under which the bet is considered a winner or loser. 🙋

For example, a bet might be worded like this: "Aliens will visit planet Earth by January 1, 2027." The additional conditions under which the bet is considered a winner or loser might read: "The bet is considered a winner if one of the leading American newspapers publishes the relevant information." In my opinion, this contains a serious logical trap. Consider the following scenario: Suppose the editor of the relevant newspaper learns of the bet and publishes an ad, for example, in the "Humor" section. And technically, the bet wins!

Therefore, in my opinion, one should always be very careful when claiming that a bet will win or lose with 100% probability. For me, the expression "100%" is an absolute no-no.  I never use this in either written or spoken language. The only expressions worse than this are "120%," "150%," and so on (applied to the probabilities of various events). I don't even talk to people who say this. If I hear something like this, I immediately get up from my chair and leave the room. I realize that this person is either an idiot or thinks I'm one. And I don't like that. 🙅