Dormant Bitcoin Wallet Moves $44M After 12 Years

[woez]

I don’t know why it should be a thing of surprise in my opinion, i have always tried to stretch out that most of the bitcoin on dormant addresses are not lost coins but rather belongs to holders who are holding for a very long time and when this moves happens it is either for investor to actually take profit or even most often move to other wallet where for security reasons both of which shouldn’t be a thing of concern.

Let's say he used all his money to buy gold and didn't buy the 400 BTC. My estimate, based on prices 12 years ago, is that he would have only 12 kg of gold, and if he cashed it in today, it would be worth around USD $1.6 million. If he cashed in his entire BTC holding, he would have around USD $42–45 million.

A significant difference in ROI between GOLD VS BTC with a 12-year waiting period.

[Sanitough]

Let's say he used all his money to buy gold and didn't buy the 400 BTC. My estimate, based on prices 12 years ago, is that he would have only 12 kg of gold, and if he cashed it in today, it would be worth around USD $1.6 million. If he cashed in his entire BTC holding, he would have around USD $42–45 million.

A significant difference in ROI between GOLD VS BTC with a 12-year waiting period.

Thanks for the computation. I already knew BTC was more profitable if you had invested in the early days, but seeing the actual figures really shows the difference. Now my question is, with the current price today, do you think Bitcoin will still be more profitable than gold if we hold it for another 12 years?

[Localhostspeed]

Thanks for the computation. I already knew BTC was more profitable if you had invested in the early days, but seeing the actual figures really shows the difference. Now my question is, with the current price today, do you think Bitcoin will still be more profitable than gold if we hold it for another 12 years?

Bitcoin in the last 4 years has done a least 4 times it's growth while Gold hasn't done 100% of its price. I can't predict the future but I can tell that Bitcoin can do another 10x from here in the next 10 years and Golf is going to be stuck where it has been for years. We should not forget that Bitcoin market cap and that of the Gold isn't the same, Gold is still 10x bigger than Bitcoin which means more opportunities for Bitcoin to compete in coming years.

[Hazink]

A valuable lesson, and not in vain. Twelve years is not a short time for him to hold BTC, and it certainly requires a great deal of patience. But whatever it is, in my opinion, he didn't actually cash it all out; he just distributed it to several other addresses in varying amounts.

Holding for this long requires a lot of hard patience; it's not easy to hold for that long without being tempted to sell off. These wallets that wake up once in a while and move their holding into another wallet are a perfect reason for us to question and not conclude that any bitcoin is lost forever unless it's located on an address for which there is no private key because the owner can just decide to move their holding out of anything.

[blockman]

I would panic only if some Satoshi related wallets would suddenly start moving Bitcoin.

Yes, me too. That's the only time that will make me panic whenever or by any chance the real satoshi's wallet starts moving. There is no other reason why it will move and that's for it to get dumped. More than a million of bitcoins are there and so, that's what is more panicking to see.

All other cases are normal and can be anything.

Definitely. All of them are no brainer normal transfers and about to get sold for hodling that long.

[AmoreJaz]

I would panic only if some Satoshi related wallets would suddenly start moving Bitcoin. All other cases are normal and can be anything.

There are a ton of very early coins that don't move, but I don't think anyone thinks he stopped mining when he removed himself from here so there are no doubt be plenty of coins that were mined by him and have moved (many times) since then.  

We dont know the history of this transaction. Who knows after so many attempts, the owner accessed his wallet? But whatever it is, it is none of our business. It means, additional bitcoin supply in the market. And that's good as we all know, there are so many forgotten coins already.
So whatever the reason is, just be grateful that the owner remember perhaps or those coins went back again to circulation. Because most dormant coins were already forgotten and not considered to be part of the supply in the market anymore. So such movement is actually good to the market.

[coupable]

When wallets this old suddenly “wake up,” it usually sparks speculation, such as..

Is the owner just reorganizing funds for security reasons? Or does this mean a potential dump is coming?

Indeed, i don't see any benefit from asking such questions while we already know the owner of those addresses and his goal to transfer them. There are many old dormant bitcoins stored in old generated addresses. Each time some of them moves we will try to get answers to those questions? This is somehow childish. Even if the owner decided to sell his fortune, the value of those 400$m worths nothing compared to the actual circulating volume in exchange markets.
You have enough time and expertise to track those bitcoins, go ahead. I am pretty sure that you will obtain nothing in return even if you can prove that they belong to Satoshi himself (almost impossible).

[FinneysTrueVision]

I'm not sure if this is relevant or not,


https://mempool.space/address/1ArUGfCLfuopJpmvXJoE5aKfYFLpxzwaWT

Some shady company has been sending these notices to old wallets with large holding hoping that they can legally seize those assets. Maybe they are trying to attract investors with false promises of having legal ownership of a lot of Bitcoin. Even if some court decided their claims had some validity, there would be no way of enforcing any action as long as the owners of the BTC remain unknown.

The whale was spooked enough by the notice that they moved their funds just in case.

[rdluffy]

Some people are bothered by this news, but I find it very interesting to observe these whales, just out of curiosity and perhaps even entertainment 

I always wonder if it's someone who lost their seed and finally found it, if it's some BTC billionaire who has dozens of wallets that have been untouched for several years and is selling some of them and converting them into fiat, or just whales making moves for security and organization purposes

Although 44 million is a very significant amount, it is not something that would cause any significant movement in the market, with BTC currently having a market cap of over 2 trillion 

[woez]

Thanks for the computation. I already knew BTC was more profitable if you had invested in the early days, but seeing the actual figures really shows the difference. Now my question is, with the current price today, do you think Bitcoin will still be more profitable than gold if we hold it for another 12 years?

Welcome Sir,  , it's a bit confusing to answer this, because the price was certainly different 12 years ago than it is now. But in my understanding, it depends on the mentality of its holders. If BTC remains resilient and isn't considered obsolete by established new projects, and has fundamentals like ETH, SOL, and others, I believe it's safe and won't change people's views on this attractive asset.

A temporary shift in position is possible, especially if the geopolitical climate becomes unhealthy, leading to increased tensions, coupled with persistent deflationary issues in various regions, then a shift in asset choices will inevitably occur. Many people will choose gold, which carries minimal risk temporarily, even if the increase is not significant.

The most common answer now is which is more attractive, gold or BTC. If someone were still invested in BTC in the next 12 years with all the supporting factors, such as massive mass adoption and favorable regulations. It's not impossible BTC could still be more profitable though diversification with gold might be wise for stability just the mentality of its holders that is questionable.

[Lanatsa]

I may be crazy when I say that 400 bitcoin is a lot to hold for 12 years, and the amount of profit that has been made over that time is something to be jealous of, but the truth is that how many people are actually willing to hold for 12 years? You see people holding for months, and then they start complaining about it, possibly due to a change in the market. Financial discipline is crucial to being able to archive something like this.

In terms of recognizing funds, the decision is actually justified because one of the reasons people invest in Bitcoin is to make money, so he must have decided to take a profit. The good thing is that we are learning from all of this, and taking this much money out of the market might cause things to pick up a little because 400 is a lot of money.
They are known as whales because they constantly monitor the market without warning, and bitcoin is a beautiful investment.

Holding 400 bitcoin for 12 years is almost unimaginable for most people because financial discipline on that level is rare the temptation to sell during dips or even after small gains is strong and many investors lack the patience to see through an entire cycle let alone more than a decade that is why stories like this stand out they show what is possible when someone has both vision and iron discipline. Taking profit after such a long time is completely justified at the end of the day the purpose of investing is to turn potential into realized value a holder who kept faith for 12 years already achieved what most traders only dream of their exit is not weakness but a recognition of the goals they set when they entered.

Large moves like unloading 400 btc do ripple through the market whales have the power to create shifts in sentiment or liquidity but over time bitcoin has shown it can absorb even massive sales as adoption grows and demand spreads to more players every big sell event also becomes a lesson for smaller investors to understand how the market works. What this reinforces is that bitcoin is both a test of patience and conviction those who can endure the volatility and noise tend to come out with life changing profits while those who chase quick wins often burn out the whale mindset is about seeing bitcoin as a long term store of value not just a trade and that perspective is what makes it such a beautiful but demanding investment.

[Catenaccio]

Holding 400 bitcoin for 12 years is almost unimaginable for most people because financial discipline on that level is rare the temptation to sell during dips or even after small gains is strong and many investors lack the patience to see through an entire cycle let alone more than a decade that is why stories like this stand out they show what is possible when someone has both vision and iron discipline.

It's number of bitcoins stored in a single Bitcoin address and we never know that the person owns that Bitcoin address only has that one or also has more bitcoins in the other Bitcoin wallets and other Bitcoin addresses. It is a common challenge for all on-chain analytics companies that they can not identify total Bitcoin owners as it is an impossible task.

I agree that it's unbelievable if a person only has 400 bitcoins in one wallet and that address did not move it in 12 years and did not sell any fraction of 400 bitcoins during those years. It's super challenging mentally to go through 4 market cycles and did not take profit either partially or entirely with 400 bitcoins.

https://charts.bitbo.io/yearly-candles/

[mirakal]

This is another solid piece of evidence indicating that investing in Bitcoin is more profitable in the long term than any other form of investment. Many old wallets are moving their coins after a long time of sleep, and their patience has paid off.

But this also has the negative impact of getting into the direction of being considered as currency because people are buying not for that reason but for profit already. People are keeping Bitcoin not for future use when adoption comes but rather for fortune and financial freedom.

[Catenaccio]

This is another solid piece of evidence indicating that investing in Bitcoin is more profitable in the long term than any other form of investment. Many old wallets are moving their coins after a long time of sleep, and their patience has paid off.

But this also has the negative impact of getting into the direction of being considered as currency because people are buying not for that reason but for profit already. People are keeping Bitcoin not for future use when adoption comes but rather for fortune and financial freedom.

The yearly candle chart and the ROI table of Bitcoin over many years clearly show that it is a very good investment asset by beating all traditional assets in ROI over recent years.

https://casebitcoin.com/
https://charts.bitbo.io/yearly-candles/

ROIs.

Year	|	Bitcoin	|	Gold	|	S&P 500	|
1 year	|	+96%	|	+45%	|	+18%	|
2 year	|	+329%	|	+112%	|	+58%	|
3 year	|	+513%	|	+126%	|	+77%	|
4 year	|	+144%	|	+122%	|	+55%	|
5 year	|	+1,024%	|	+102%	|	+98%	|
6 year	|	+1,356%	|	+156%	|	+128%	|
7 year	|	+1,724%	|	+221%	|	+131%	|
8 year	|	+2,680%	|	+203%	|	+163%	|
9 year	|	+19,427%	|	+204%	|	+210%	|
10 year	|	+49,449%	|	+240%	|	+240%	|
11 year	|	+36,524%	|	+224%	|	+240%	|
12 year	|	+97,453%	|	+194%	|	+298%	|
13 year	|	+937,987%	|	+116%	|	+359%	|
14 year	|	+2.6 million%	|	+135%	|	+480%	|

[X-ray]

I always interpret dormant wallet suddenly moving bitcoin in big amount as the result of OTC deal.

Probably got some deals behind the scene and the wallet owner finally moving the bitcoin to the designated address by the buyers, nothing more.

In other words, just a whale taking profit but not a big deal at all for the entire crypto market.

The ROI is really massive if you think about it, divide the ROI by the years he's holding it and you got something that an instrument from tradfi could rarely compete.