Where would you expect the bottom of the next bear market to be?

[retaur]

Not to be all doom and gloom while Bitcoin's pushing new ATHs, but hopefully this can bring some realistic discussion for everyone's expectations with investing in crypto.

The last bear cycle saw the price of bitcoin be just below what it was when it crossed it's ATH in 2017, when it was hovering around $15-17k. This time, I'm more keen on the idea it'll end up slumping down to about $40-60k but I think I'm not sure if I'm being too optimistic thinking that because I normally predict higher than it ends up being (I do think $40-45k was a firmly held level for a while so it'll be interesting if we do touch it/go through it).

[EL MOHA]

Bitcoin is unpredictable and as such we can only speculate, I can tell you today that many people as at when bitcoin was below $20k said it was a fairy tale dream to see bitcoin get to $100k but today bitcoin has actually done close to 7x from that price and will do more again.

The last bear cycle saw the price of bitcoin be just below what it was when it crossed it's ATH in 2017, when it was hovering around $15-17k. This time, I'm more keen on the idea it'll end up slumping down to about $40-60k but I think I'm not sure if I'm being too optimistic thinking that because I normally predict higher than it ends up being (I do think $40-45k was a firmly held level for a while so it'll be interesting if we do touch it/go through it).

My prediction for the next bear market will be heavily influenced by the fact that bitcoin volatility is seriously reducing and as such as we don’t expect bitcoin to fly high as it was doing in the early days we also do not expect it to actually be dumping too using same volatility as the early days. Before in a full blown bearish market, bitcoin can dump to almost 80% from an ATH it sets just like in 2022 when it dip to $15k. But currently with less volatility creeping in I definitely do think that bitcoin will not lose 80% at most my prediction is for at least 60% of the price depending on the ATH set so yeah I agree with the $40k-$45k price range

[BitMaxz]

There are a lot of things that change on the market; this cycle might be different since we already have a Bitcoin ETF, and it got more exposure to big investors. So I don't think the price would just drop to the $40k zone or even $60k.

According to my current analysis, the dip price is around $98k to $100k if the price breaks the previous support under $107k.
But if these zones are ignored during a bear market, the $64k would be the bottom since that was the previous ATH the past last cycle.

I'm not thinking about it yet because my gut tells me it won't drop below $100k.

[aoluain]

There are a lot of things that change on the market; this cycle might be different since we already have a Bitcoin ETF, and it got more exposure to big investors. So I don't think the price would just drop to the $40k zone or even $60k.

According to my current analysis, the dip price is around $98k to $100k if the price breaks the previous support under $107k.
But if these zones are ignored during a bear market, the $64k would be the bottom since that was the previous ATH the past last cycle.

I'm not thinking about it yet because my gut tells me it won't drop below $100k.

Yes since 2017 a lot of "water has passed under the bridge" and there is a lot more
interest in Bitcoin from different sectors, governmental and financial which circa 2017
wasnt the case.

There has been talk that the likes of the "super cycles" being a thing of the past mainly due
to the aforementioned interest so yea we may not see a $40 to $60 range, more
like a $100k range. It will also be interesting where the market pulls back from.

[Wiwo]

Not to be all doom and gloom while Bitcoin's pushing new ATHs, but hopefully this can bring some realistic discussion for everyone's expectations with investing in crypto.

The last bear cycle saw the price of bitcoin be just below what it was when it crossed it's ATH in 2017, when it was hovering around $15-17k. This time, I'm more keen on the idea it'll end up slumping down to about $40-60k but I think I'm not sure if I'm being too optimistic thinking that because I normally predict higher than it ends up being (I do think $40-45k was a firmly held level for a while so it'll be interesting if we do touch it/go through it).

Bear market that will eat up bitcoin down half 50% of current price is going to be a long walk and we may likely not be seeing such with bitcoin, the price could probably down to around 80k-90k but anything below that price shouldn't be expected within the next few bitcoin halving cycles  time lines.

So that brings us to the conclusion that bitcoin will never fall to somewhere around 50k again, at least not in the next 8 years which should be around 2 bitcoin cycles.

Anyways such speculations are always expected, but in doing that we have to be very realistic with ourselves to the point that we start placing our priorities on the realities as we expect it to happen.

[hyudien]

Not to be all doom and gloom while Bitcoin's pushing new ATHs, but hopefully this can bring some realistic discussion for everyone's expectations with investing in crypto.

The last bear cycle saw the price of bitcoin be just below what it was when it crossed it's ATH in 2017, when it was hovering around $15-17k. This time, I'm more keen on the idea it'll end up slumping down to about $40-60k but I think I'm not sure if I'm being too optimistic thinking that because I normally predict higher than it ends up being (I do think $40-45k was a firmly held level for a while so it'll be interesting if we do touch it/go through it).

While Bitcoin is unpredictable, I'm not convinced the price drop you predict will actually occur. Furthermore the current cycle appears to be different, bitcoin appears to be creating a new pattern so it's unlikely to follow previous patterns and the current increase in adoption is causing Bitcoin to slowly stabilize. This is why I believe that even if a bear market occurs the decline won't be too sharp, or 50% of the current price.

[Katrinewilliams]

As for me I think the bear market will highly increase in the sense that, since bitcoin price rose above $100k it has never reduced to $40k
I know bitcoin is unpredictable but I can still bring to conclusion that bitcoin will never fall up to $40k anymore not even in the next 2 bitcoin cycles which is 8 years.

[philipma1957]

Not to be all doom and gloom while Bitcoin's pushing new ATHs, but hopefully this can bring some realistic discussion for everyone's expectations with investing in crypto.

The last bear cycle saw the price of bitcoin be just below what it was when it crossed it's ATH in 2017, when it was hovering around $15-17k. This time, I'm more keen on the idea it'll end up slumping down to about $40-60k but I think I'm not sure if I'm being too optimistic thinking that because I normally predict higher than it ends up being (I do think $40-45k was a firmly held level for a while so it'll be interesting if we do touch it/go through it).

I figure 135 to 150k. Should be around dec or nov 2027

[retaur]

I figure 135 to 150k. Should be around dec or nov 2027

How'd you get there, I'm still expecting a decent drop.... Is that with or without that drop?

I'm not thinking about it yet because my gut tells me it won't drop below $100k.

100k is very near the current price of Bitcoin, that almost means you don't expect it to fall at all?

I know bitcoin is unpredictable but I can still bring to conclusion that bitcoin will never fall up to $40k anymore not even in the next 2 bitcoin cycles which is 8 years.

Yeah I think it's reasonable to expect we won't fall below the low of this next cycle in the cycle after unless something catastrophic occurs.

I still think it's hard to assume Bitcoin will never fall back to $40k though as I never expect a fall when we're on a bullrun normally until it happens and I wait for a second or third peak to surpass the last one.

[Issa56]

The last bear cycle saw the price of bitcoin be just below what it was when it crossed it's ATH in 2017, when it was hovering around $15-17k. This time, I'm more keen on the idea it'll end up slumping down to about $40-60k but I think I'm not sure if I'm being too optimistic thinking that because I normally predict higher than it ends up being (I do think $40-45k was a firmly held level for a while so it'll be interesting if we do touch it/go through it).

We haven’t started experiencing bear market, but you already making prediction on how low bitcoin price is going to go during the bear, I just feel you should calm down, don’t be in a rush, let’s wait for the bear to start before we start making predictions like this. What you should know about bitcoin is that nobody knows how high bitcoin price will go, and body knows how low bitcoin price will go during the bear, so let’s just keep observing the market, don’t be surprise that bitcoin might not dump so much during the bear market.

[BitMaxz]

I'm not thinking about it yet because my gut tells me it won't drop below $100k.

100k is very near the current price of Bitcoin, that almost means you don't expect it to fall at all?

Yeah, it's near, but that's currently the major support. If you are in the chart, you should be able to see that that is the lower channel line of the uptrend since last year. Every time the price hit that lower channel of the trend, it bounced.
If I am wrong and the price drops at that zone, then that is a strong sign of a bearish season for BTC because the major support broke.

Just added the image below to understand and point you to what I mean:

[LogitechMouse]

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The last bear cycle saw the price of bitcoin be just below what it was when it crossed it's ATH in 2017, when it was hovering around $15-17k. This time, I'm more keen on the idea it'll end up slumping down to about $40-60k but I think I'm not sure if I'm being too optimistic thinking that because I normally predict higher than it ends up being (I do think $40-45k was a firmly held level for a while so it'll be interesting if we do touch it/go through it).

I'm also thinking that if Bitcoin will at least around $140,000 - $150,000 as it's peak price, when it goes down during the bear market, it will go as low as the price range that you said.

Normally, Bitcoin goes down around 60-70% of it's peak price. Now the question is, will the addition of institutions make a difference when it comes to where Bitcoin's bottom will be during the bear market. I mean with the institutions bagging huge amounts of Bitcoins, there will be less number that will be circulating. What I'm thinking is that, if these institutions will not sell their Bitcoins during the bear market, we might see it's price going down still, but not as steep as what we've seen during the 2018 bear market, and the 2022 bear market. Of course, it will be different if these institutions also sell a portion or worse, all of the Bitcoins that they're holding.

[DanWalker]

If we can't predict the peak, how can we predict the bottom? That is why it is no coincidence that DCA and long-term accumulation are always recommended when buying bitcoin, as well as always having a clear selling target.

Also, because the market depends on many micro and macro factors. So if we want to predict the bottom, we should also wait for the bull cycle to end to determine the top and the cause of the bear season. By then, there will be more data to rely on, making predictions at this point is just random and meaningless guesswork.

[retaur]

If we can't predict the peak, how can we predict the bottom? That is why it is no coincidence that DCA and long-term accumulation are always recommended when buying bitcoin, as well as always having a clear selling target.

  I find the bottoms easier to try to predict tbf. I'm usually not actively trading to reach them though so maybe that's a confirmation bias thing (and I did expect us to bottom out above or around $10k last time so maybe I was still wrong).

If these institutions will not sell their Bitcoins during the bear market, we might see it's price going down still, but not as steep as what we've seen during the 2018 bear market, and the 2022 bear market. Of course, it will be different if these institutions also sell a portion or worse, all of the Bitcoins that they're holding.

This has got me thinking the money in those institutions is essentially off the table and might not even relate to the current price or could diverge from it a bit (particularly if a lot of people are just holding them).

The idea the same number of people might be selling off a smaller amount of Bitcoin/crypto is a bit of a difference to what you've suggested and I guess either could happen.

[Webetcoins]

I am guessing it will go under 40k, not entirely sure if it will crack under 30k, and certain that it will stay above 20k, but I am sure it will crack under 40k. Of course that is only if we assume that 125k is the top, which I do not believe that.

I think we are going to go above 150k during this bull run, should be great. When we do that, then I would say under 50k is possible, but under 30k will become impossible.

Well in theory nothing is impossible, it may go under 10k too, who knows, like if some big hacking happens or whatever, or billions suddenly get sold, if all ETF gets liquidated all at once same day etc etc. But, it's clear that we are talking about normal cases where normal things happen. Then bear market should stay above 30k and that should be fine.

We have seen under 20k last time, and we could stay above 30k this time, maybe even above 40k, and that would prove that we have come a long way if even our bottom is higher.

[OgNasty]

I am guessing it will go under 40k, not entirely sure if it will crack under 30k, and certain that it will stay above 20k, but I am sure it will crack under 40k. Of course that is only if we assume that 125k is the top, which I do not believe that.

I think we are going to go above 150k during this bull run, should be great. When we do that, then I would say under 50k is possible, but under 30k will become impossible.

Well in theory nothing is impossible, it may go under 10k too, who knows, like if some big hacking happens or whatever, or billions suddenly get sold, if all ETF gets liquidated all at once same day etc etc. But, it's clear that we are talking about normal cases where normal things happen. Then bear market should stay above 30k and that should be fine.

We have seen under 20k last time, and we could stay above 30k this time, maybe even above 40k, and that would prove that we have come a long way if even our bottom is higher.

I think that's a pretty good take.  If I were to call top and bottom prices for this cycle, I would say that we peak out somewhere between $140K-$200K in the next 10 weeks and then fall somewhere between $40K-$60K over the following 18 months.  My guess would be that from there we x10 by Q4 of 2029, but that's just hoping the fractal pattern continues.  At some point it won't, but until then, let the drinks flow and the dancers dance.