Planning to Compound Bet on NBA There will be Overtime Market

[xLays]

Since the NBA season is about to start this coming October 22, I’m planning to do compound betting strategy on the "There will be Overtime" market bet in NBA games.
Usually, the odds for No Overtime market are around 1.02 to 1.05. My base bet will be start only $25. Let’s say I consistently bet on 1.05 odds for all 82 games of no overtime market if I manage to hit all 82 bets without a single loss, my compounded $25 would grow to around $1400 by the end of the season.

Do you think it’s worth the risk? Would you do the same? Has anyone here on bitcointalk tried doing this kind of compounding strategy before and successfully reach the desire amount?
Your thoughts please.

[Cointxz]

Season   OT Games
2014‑15   76
2015‑16   77
2016‑17   70
2017‑18   62
2018‑19   67
2019‑20   69
2020‑21   56
2021‑22   58
2022‑23   79
2023‑24   59

That’s the stats of the previous OT games based on statmuse. According to AI OT games is roughly 6%-9% of the total games.

I believe it’s worth the shot but the real pain is the motivation to continue halfway if you already have a decent win accumulated. 

[danherbias07]

I once had an idea of betting the other way. The "Will there be an Overtime- Yes", but I never went for No Overtime because I think there's no profit in it. Unless what will be done is like your idea.

Still, have you tried at least putting some 5-10 Overtime that will happen in the whole season? I mean, minus that from the profits, of course. How much will it be? How about 10-20 games with overtime? Will it still be profitable? It could happen, and looking at how balanced the teams are today, it will be scary to be for a "no overtime" option.

[Russlenat]

You can’t outsmart them, the odds are never in your favor, so it’s not really safe. And if you keep compounding your bets, it’ll just mess with your mood, especially when you’ve built up a good streak and then the game suddenly goes into overtime.. everything you worked for can disappear in seconds. For me, that’s not a good strategy. Just keep it simple, focus on mastering your picks and getting a good win percentage on point spreads and totals, with solid bankroll management of course.

The easiest way is to start with a decent bankroll and aim small. Doing the opposite.. starting small and aiming big - usually ends in failure.

[rbynxx]

Do you plan to just stick it on a single team or you want to bet it on all games if it's the latter I guess that's a lot of games. Let's say you manage to make it in the first month winning but I think just few losing streaks you'd be in a loss. If this is just an experiment I think sticking with a single team for now is a great step, you can level it up if you think you've got your system good. Last season the team with least overtime appearances was Boston Celtics, just 5-6 games.

[xLays]

Do you plan to just stick it on a single team or you want to bet it on all games if it's the latter I guess that's a lot of games. Let's say you manage to make it in the first month winning but I think just few losing streaks you'd be in a loss. If this is just an experiment I think sticking with a single team for now is a great step, you can level it up if you think you've got your system good. Last season the team with least overtime appearances was Boston Celtics, just 5-6 games.

I can stick to one team that’s why I mentioned 82 games. Or I might go with the team that’s currently at the bottom of the standings, like the one with the lowest wins this season. For my first five bets, I’ll go with Dallas since they got the No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft.

I never really checked NBA overtime stats because my way of choosing teams to bet on doesn’t rely on that. I don’t think it matters much.

Whatever happens, I’ll just go with it. Once I start, I’ll post my progress here so we can see how far my bets go. If I lose, I’ll lock this thread.

[rbynxx]

I can stick to one team that’s why I mentioned 82 games. Or I might go with the team that’s currently at the bottom of the standings, like the one with the lowest wins this season. For my first five bets, I’ll go with Dallas since they got the No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft.

I never really checked NBA overtime stats because my way of choosing teams to bet on doesn’t rely on that. I don’t think it matters much.

Whatever happens, I’ll just go with it. Once I start, I’ll post my progress here so we can see how far my bets go. If I lose, I’ll lock this thread.

Well, I thought it's just a single team you're betting on considering you said it was 82 games which happens to be the games played by all teams in NBA and you said by the end of the season. By that this will be done in just a month I guess if you're just aiming for 82 games randomly. Well, the floor is yours and I think it would be for the best interest of the community if you post here your bets beforehand maybe we'd be interested on it.

[stadus]

If you play by probability, according to the article
https://www.binomialbasketball.com/p/probability-of-nba-overtime-over

the chance of a game going into overtime is around 6% (rounded off). but you’re only getting odds between 1.02 to 1.05, which means you’re not getting the true implied probability, the odds are actually against you.

the real probability is about 94%, so technically the odds should be around 1.06 in decimal.

https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html