Is It Really 50/50 When You Bet on 2.00 Odds?

[Natalim]

A lot of bettors think that when they bet on 2.00 odds, it’s a fair 50/50 chance, like flipping a coin. But in reality, that’s not true. The implied probability might say 50%, but the real probability is usually around 46–47%, and that small gap is exactly where the bookies make their money.

We don’t really notice it because the numbers look balanced, but that hidden margin is what keeps the sportsbook profitable long-term. So even if you win sometimes, over many bets, that small percentage difference starts to add up in their favor, not yours.

What do you guys think.. is it still worth betting on “even odds” when the real chances are already tilted against us? Or do you try to find value elsewhere instead of chasing the illusion of 50/50 bets?

[Oshosondy]

I am tired of 'odd even' discussion. I think this is the third thread about such threads.

Betting should just be for fun, people should know that the betting sites are not for the business owners to lose but for the bettors to lose while the betting site owners will make money.

This is beyond 'even odd' but it is also applicable to other bet odds and also existing in casinos.

[joeperry]

What do you guys think.. is it still worth betting on “even odds” when the real chances are already tilted against us? Or do you try to find value elsewhere instead of chasing the illusion of 50/50 bets?

For some of us, yes. Because you really can't find a fair 50/50 so the only thing you can do is to accept that you won't be able to have the 50% probability. Personally I don't usually look at the odds, I know that there will always small gap in the real probability and if I really want a 2.00 odds, I usually look for higher odds to achieve it. I many of the gamblers are not familiar with this, when I started I thought that the house edge is only applicable in casinos or provably fair games I didn't thought that they do have bookies margin in the sports bet.

[Natalim]

I am tired of 'odd even' discussion. I think this is the third thread about such threads.

Betting should just be for fun, people should know that the betting sites are not for the business owners to lose but for the bettors to lose while the betting site owners will make money.

But I believe this is more of a technical discussion, since we’re talking about real probability and implied probability, something that serious sports bettors who want to go deeper into their craft should understand.

It’s not really for casual bettors who just play for fun. This kind of talk is for those who want to dig deeper and figure out how to find the true value behind the lines and odds available.

This is beyond 'even odd' but it is also applicable to other bet odds and also existing in casinos.

Let's make it specific to sportsbook only since the topic is about sports betting.

[danherbias07]

Nah, I don't think so either.

It's not 50/50 but more like 30/70. We are 30 as a gambler. Anyway, that's why they put handicap in when it's about sports betting. We can take advantage of those handicaps and increase the chance of winning.

x2.00 is actually high, and whenever I make a parlay, I stick with x1.50 - x1.70 and that's it. In singles, I will take a x1.80 - x1.90 but never a x2.00. For me, that's kind of difficult to win considering the spreads are also available.

[ZeroVinsonN]

As much as they want us to believe that we actually have 50/50 chance, and as long as there are people who actually believe this then the betting companies will always keep making money out of us, of course people will always gamble, placing bets over the smallest of things is one nature we might never be able to beat and the bookies know this so they will always exploit the inherent limitation we have as human to their advantage, it's left oft us to understand the difference, we are here to make them rich not the other way around, the usual wins every once in a while keeps coming it just to keep us in the game.

[Sanitough]

x2.00 is actually high, and whenever I make a parlay, I stick with x1.50 - x1.70 and that's it. In singles, I will take a x1.80 - x1.90 but never a x2.00. For me, that's kind of difficult to win considering the spreads are also available.

You’d still lose anyway if you keep taking odds around 1.80–1.90 and your win rate isn’t above 55%.

With odds at 2.00, even a 51% win rate can already make you profitable as long as you manage your bankroll properly. It might sound complicated for those who don’t understand how to spot value in the lines, but for bettors who’ve been into sports betting for a while, this is already a basic factor to consider.

[Odusko]

Odds are technical and have to be done under special analysis, odds most times doesn't determine the outcome of a game, don't let the book makers deceive your with odds offering that can be very inconsistent, so I will say that I bet to disagree with such a wrong assumption that 2.0 odds means 50% chances, some of which we can definitely say is wrong to assume so.

[Haunebu]

Firstly, you can find lots of value on various bets in soft sportsbooks regularly where the odds beat the CLV, but it won't be easy to find them without using softwares and you will get limited/restricted if you bet on them regularly.

Secondly, you can find bets with very little vig/margin on certain sites like Pinnacle and betting exchanges like Betfair(Small commission on wins). Here odds of 2.0 is more like 1.98 - 1.99 true odds.

Thirdly, promotions help soften the blow on soft sportsbooks where the vig is usually between 4 - 6%.

[Ziskinberg]

Odds are technical and have to be done under special analysis, odds most times doesn't determine the outcome of a game, don't let the book makers deceive your with odds offering that can be very inconsistent, so I will say that I bet to disagree with such a wrong assumption that 2.0 odds means 50% chances, some of which we can definitely say is wrong to assume so.

Bookies will always offer odds for every available game, but as bettors, we don’t need to bet on all of them, only when we see value in the odds being offered. It’s as simple as that.

However, for bettors who don’t analyze, it’s easy to assume that odds of 2.00 automatically mean a 50% chance of winning, which isn’t exactly true. Odds over 2.00 don’t necessarily mean you have more than a 50% chance, it just means the payout is higher if you win, but whether it’s good value or not depends on your analysis and the real probability of that outcome.

[Dunamisx]

A lot of bettors think that when they bet on 2.00 odds, it’s a fair 50/50 chance, like flipping a coin. But in reality, that’s not true. The implied probability might say 50%, but the real probability is usually around 46–47%, and that small gap is exactly where the bookies make their money.

The odd being 2.00 does not make the risk and chance of wining a 50 by 50 chance, this is not how it is, once you gamble, regardless of the odd, know that you have a more higher chances of losing to that of winning, its not that you cant win at all, but the number of times you could have played will be more of losses than winning, choose whatever odd that pleases you, it changes nothing from you winning or losing.

[YOSHIE]

What do you guys think.. is it still worth betting on “even odds” when the real chances are already tilted against us? Or do you try to find value elsewhere instead of chasing the illusion of 50/50 bets?

This is the same as what the bookie will do in the Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Newcastle United FC, the odds offered are 2.65 for both 3.50 for a draw position, Likewise with the match between West Ham United FC vs. Brentford FC odds offered are the same as above 2.65/1x2/50/50.

For me if the odds in sports betting if the bookie is offering 50/50 I personally would rather back off, I won't place a bet on that, because it could make me confused in my predictions and analysis, of course I don't want to take the risk of the 50/50 odds offered by the bookie.

[Justbillywitt]

This is the first time I am hearing that even odds of 2.00 has a 50/50 chance. I believe no odd is assured of a win, as long as you bet on any odd you stand a 50/50 chance to win or lose. It mustn't be an even odd or not. Any odd can fail you, any odd can give you a win on a day that luck is on your side.  Even odds of 1.25 that many gamblers will see as 95/5 chance of winning, will fuck your bet slip up on a day that you are bound to lose bet.

[mak013]

~
What do you guys think.. is it still worth betting on “even odds” when the real chances are already tilted against us? Or do you try to find value elsewhere instead of chasing the illusion of 50/50 bets?

It depends on analyze. Sometimes 2.0 is enough for me. But mostly i prefer odds 2.5 or higher. And it is bad decision to make a bet using bookie odds analyze.
PS. If we analyze bookie odds, i think that win chance 50% is equal odd about 1.6-1.7, not more. But such odd tells us, that we need to have win rate about 70% just not to lose.

[Z_MBFM]

A lot of bettors think that when they bet on 2.00 odds, it’s a fair 50/50 chance, like flipping a coin. But in reality, that’s not true. The implied probability might say 50%, but the real probability is usually around 46–47%, and that small gap is exactly where the bookies make their money.

We don’t really notice it because the numbers look balanced, but that hidden margin is what keeps the sportsbook profitable long-term. So even if you win sometimes, over many bets, that small percentage difference starts to add up in their favor, not yours.

What do you guys think.. is it still worth betting on “even odds” when the real chances are already tilted against us? Or do you try to find value elsewhere instead of chasing the illusion of 50/50 bets?

Your winning percentage depends on how strong the team you are betting on is and how well they can play against them. Sometimes 2 Odd is a very potential and possible bet, and sometimes even a smaller bet is much riskier and the winning probability is less than 50%. So the percentage of winning chances you will get for 2 odd will depend on the performance and strength of the two teams in that match. But yes, the bigger the odds you bet on, the lower your winning probability will be. Except for sports, if you bet on any casino game at 2 odd, then your winning chance will be 50/50.

[Sim_card]

Following odds can be misleading because I know vividly that sometimes, the casino give out the wrong odd and make those that are after odds lose their bet. Bookmakers don't know it all because a future event is unpredictable due to various factors. I bet based on my own research and analysis not based on the bookie odds. There's no guarantee that 2.00 odds is 50-50.

[Maslate]

This is the first time I am hearing that even odds of 2.00 has a 50/50 chance. I believe no odd is assured of a win, as long as you bet on any odd you stand a 50/50 chance to win or lose. It mustn't be an even odd or not. Any odd can fail you, any odd can give you a win on a day that luck is on your side.

That 50/50 chance only reflects the implied probability, it doesn’t automatically mean that’s the true probability.

If we really understand the difference between the two, we’ll start to see how odds or betting lines can actually be overvalued or undervalued.

Even odds of 1.25 that many gamblers will see as 95/5 chance of winning, will fuck your bet slip up on a day that you are bound to lose bet.

How do you arrive with the  95/5 chance of winning?

you can use this calculator to determine it correctly. https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html

1.25 is only 0.25/1 in fraction with 80% Implied Probability.

[AbuBhakar]

A lot of bettors think that when they bet on 2.00 odds, it’s a fair 50/50 chance, like flipping a coin. But in reality, that’s not true. The implied probability might say 50%, but the real probability is usually around 46–47%, and that small gap is exactly where the bookies make their money.

There’s no such thing as 50/50 with 2.0 odds because of   the house edge. It’s only possible on casino that doesn’t have house edge there’s an error on odds placement.

But on normal betting setup you can’t find a fair offer like that because casino needs to have a guaranteed profit to cover their operating expenses.

What do you guys think.. is it still worth betting on “even odds” when the real chances are already tilted against us? Or do you try to find value elsewhere instead of chasing the illusion of 50/50 bets?

If you enjoy betting that way I believe it’s worth it since we are gambling for entertainment purposes but if you don’t find value on betting on that kind of bet then don’t push it.

[Showlove01]

As much and as long as I know there is nothing like 50/50 in gambling even though people do use that term reason because the chance or the probability of making loss or losing is always higher than that of the winning no matter how the odds of the game appear and even 1 odd sometimes has a higher probability of someone losing because nothing is known or certain,  we only try our luck that is what we do in gambling. And it happens that we are the ones that give ourselves hope and the thought that we have a high chance of winning but it is not wrong though.

[Wiwo]

When i sse this kind of 2 odds games i somewhat have some positive attitude towards them and if a odds of like 1.50 is avaliable and the team is strong you can give it a 50/50 bets speculations but is not still a guarantee bet still everything still depends on your lucks to win.

This is why we always advocate that gamblers should not take sure bet based on odds provisions although odds plays a significant role in winning a bet since odds are divided based on team performance and available fact about the teams playing.