Odds and chances differences, let's closes this damn debate forever!!!!

[nakamura12]

I always thought about odds that it's all about how much money the bettor will win and the probability that it will happen so I was surprised that there is a debate if odds and chances are the same. I'd say that odds is like a multiplier in slot games where higher odds offer higher payment compared to lower odds.

[Johnlomape]

I always thought about odds that it's all about how much money the bettor will win and the probability that it will happen so I was surprised that there is a debate if odds and chances are the same. I'd say that odds is like a multiplier in slot games where higher odds offer higher payment compared to lower odds.

Odds changes and sometimes the best time to get the best odds from sport bets is when the match or game is far from when it's taking place. When the match get closer the odds reduces till the very day the match will take place. The higher the odd does not mean that you are going to make profit for yourself. There are some odds that are high and could guarantee a winning for you that small odds that might still make you lose your money. Luck is the most important feature you need to make money from betting whether it's a high or low odd.

[stompix]

I always thought about odds that it's all about how much money the bettor will win and the probability that it will happen so I was surprised that there is a debate if odds and chances are the same.

You just said that odds are the probability of that thing happening.
Now if one bookie has PSG at 2.15 and one Bookie has PSG at 2.3 against Bayern next week, how do you calculate the probability? Because by definition, you can have two probabilities of an event happening 

I agree with you that in gambling, the concept of chance is not the same as the concept of odds on a sporting event. However, in my opinion, these two concepts are interconnected. That is, there is no identity, but there is a correlation... 😌

Correlation doesn't imply causation!
Live bets on events like elections, Oscars and other stuff are the perfect example. Trump had the same "chances" before the polls closed and one hour after, his ods on winning and going down after the event happened and it was immutable, is proof of them not being connected to the probability of that happening.

[Free Market Capitalist]

I think I got not just tired but over the top bored and annoyed with the constant discussion on odds and chances of that happening.

...

I think that anyone with a working brain would realize it's impossible for the guy to have different chances of winning the match!  

Well, I see many non working brains in this section. I think you're talking to a brick wall. How many times have we explained here how bad a method like the Martingale can be? Countless times. However, every now and then we come across a post with someone commenting on their experience, or believing they have found a new variant that will beat the casino.

I mean, this is a good and informative thread, but I doubt how effective it can be. And judging by some replies, it seems I'm right.

[shasan]

I feel the chances are always equal, like 50 50 for each team because anything can happen and a team can get victorious regardless of the strength of their squad. There are chances of the stronger team getting a red card or injuries and it favors the underdogs to win peacefully.

The odds actually determine how much you get which is the odds given to a team multiplied by your stake just like you illustrated. Its clear and I wish this thread settles the misconception.

I do not agree with you that the chance of winning is 50% for each team. The chance of winning is higher of the tema who is strong than the weak team. ANything can happen but usually weak team loses and strong teaam wins. If the team of Argentina play football with the team of Bangladesh/India/Pakistan than we can say easily that the team of argentina will be winner.

[Haunebu]

This is a complicated one. Firstly, odds are pretty much the implied probability of an event which is directly equivalent to the implied chance of it happening. Secondly, bookmakers set odds based on their own factors due to which they tend to differ.

Sharp books like Pinnacle and exchanges like Betfair usually set the tightest odds which are the true chances of the event occurring(Back) or not occurring(Lay). Decimal odds can literally be converted into percentages(chance) through converters.

[stompix]

Firstly, odds are pretty much the implied probability of an event which is directly equivalent to the implied chance of it happening.  Firstly, odds are pretty much the implied probability of an event which is directly equivalent to the implied chance of it happening.

Nope! Implied of implied isn't happening here!
Chances is something people assume, probability is math, odds are derived from probability and bets.
Again, if I were to rush now and bet 1 million on Union Berlin against Bayern and move the odds 0.2 or 0.3 that would not mean a thing, it will not change the chances of Bayern winning the game! Odds are not tied to any mathematical probability they are derived from and thus can't imply anything.
It's probability > money thrown at > odds!

[Haunebu]

Nope! Implied of implied isn't happening here!
Chances is something people assume, probability is math, odds are derived from probability and bets.
Again, if I were to rush now and bet 1 million on Union Berlin against Bayern and move the odds 0.2 or 0.3 that would not mean a thing, it will not change the chances of Bayern winning the game! Odds are not tied to any mathematical probability they are derived from and thus can't imply anything.
It's probability > money thrown at > odds!

Literally everything about sports betting is based on assumption which is its core foundation. Odds, chances, percentages, probabilities etc all are basically doing the same thing in this context.

Potato-Potahto etc basically. Everyone in the sports betting world literally interchange all of these terms randomly which itself says everything. I understand your perspective here, but that is shared by a very small minority for good reason.

[stompix]

Odds, chances, percentages, probabilities etc all are basically doing the same thing in this context.

Nope, and simply because
- Chances are what a human perceives and me tossing 1 grand on a team can't affect the chances someone in the US thinks the team has
- Probability is a mathematical equation and again me throwing money  at itis not part of constructing it, nor will it lower the probability of Mbappe scoring, for example
- Odds are a reward a bookie is able or is willing to pay for you to risk your money on, and which people can influence even without knowing what they bet on

I understand your perspective here, but that is shared by a very small minority for good reason.

In most cases, when it's not about religion, politics and sexuality, is way better to be part of a minority