Will Satoshi move any Bitcoins in 2025?

[adaseb]

So I found this on the prediction markets. I don't want to post the link but you all know what prediction website this is. Start with a P.

Currently there is a 6% chance that Satoshi will move some Bitcoins in 2025. Seems like its a risk free way to make 6%.

However what I noticed was that someone that bought around 341000 shares at around 11 cents, so someone is betting $37K, that some coins will be moved. Another user bet $25K that he also will move some coins.

So is there some conspiracy theory here, where someone close to Satoshi is betting on this market to score big? It can't be Satoshi himself because why turn $37K into $340K when you can just sell your billions of Bitcoin.

[xmrhopium]

So I found this on the prediction markets. I don't want to post the link but you all know what prediction website this is. Start with a P.

Currently there is a 6% chance that Satoshi will move some Bitcoins in 2025. Seems like its a risk free way to make 6%.

However what I noticed was that someone that bought around 341000 shares at around 11 cents, so someone is betting $37K, that some coins will be moved. Another user bet $25K that he also will move some coins.

So is there some conspiracy theory here, where someone close to Satoshi is betting on this market to score big? It can't be Satoshi himself because why turn $37K into $340K when you can just sell your billions of Bitcoin.

This is what you talking about?



I’m wondering if coins from old wallets dating back to the Satoshi era are ever moved would that gonna be considered the job done by Satoshi himself?
 
Though it's been a 15 years and the well known wallet coins remain untouched, if the real Satoshi wanted to return for the their coin, they'd have done it long ago.

Tbh, I don’t think they ever planned to return back, and it seems unlikely they will. They’ve mentioned moving on to other things, which could be a hint for the bitcoin communities that they won’t be coming back.

Probably it's possible that some old wallets might move this year but that doesn’t mean the coins are being moved by Satoshi.

[Ambatman]

So is there some conspiracy theory here, where someone close to Satoshi is betting on this market to score big? It can't be Satoshi himself because why turn $37K into $340K when you can just sell your billions of Bitcoin.

I really don't understand why you reading too much into this.
The user that did is a gambler and have lost almost $70K you can check their profile
And the highest holder on the no section is in Millions profit https://polymarket.com/@ilovecircle

Not saying profit shows knowledge and experience but it's a factor in measuring it

Besides it could be pure manipulation. Just see how interested you were and even considering may be possible

There are People that placed a bet on Jesus coming this year
They had an insider knowledge too?

Probably it's possible that some old wallets might move this year but that doesn’t mean the coins are being moved by Satoshi.

No they won't. They are considered satoshis coin because of something called the patoshi pattern
You can check it out.
Even if Satoshi is alive and plans on selling, why sell now cheaper when there's room for growth.

[mindrust]

I don’t think he will. If he did, it would cause catastrophic events. People would panic because they would think he is about to take a dump on us. There simply isn’t enough liquidity in the markets to counter that dumping. It would be a bath of shit. We would be swimming in shit. Btc to $100 probably.

And that’s exactly why it won’t happen. I might take that bet and make easy money if some people think satoshi will move his coins in 2025. Sounds easy enough to me.

[FinneysTrueVision]

The odds went as high as 15% a few days ago. 6% returns might seem small by comparison, but considering there is less than 80 days left in the year that would be a nearly 29% APR. There aren’t many investments that can give you those kinds of returns without taking on significant risk.

The true odds of Satoshi moving his coins is probably a fraction of 1%, so I don’t know what people are thinking buying YES shares. It could be manipulation, but I don’t really see there being much benefit to doing this.

[ABCbits]

So I found this on the prediction markets. I don't want to post the link but you all know what prediction website this is. Start with a P.

Currently there is a 6% chance that Satoshi will move some Bitcoins in 2025. Seems like its a risk free way to make 6%.

I think sharing the direct link on this forum is fine, https://polymarket.com/event/will-satoshi-move-any-bitcoin-in-2025. But the text "6% chance" is misleading, when AFAIK refer 6% of total money/people bet on Satoshi will move any Bitcoin.

However what I noticed was that someone that bought around 341000 shares at around 11 cents, so someone is betting $37K, that some coins will be moved. Another user bet $25K that he also will move some coins.

So is there some conspiracy theory here, where someone close to Satoshi is betting on this market to score big? It can't be Satoshi himself because why turn $37K into $340K when you can just sell your billions of Bitcoin.

I don't believe any conspiracy theory is happening. Back then, reward of mining block is 50 BTC. The mining reward alone currently is about $5.5 million, which is far higher than amount of involved betting money.

[Catenaccio]

So I found this on the prediction markets. I don't want to post the link but you all know what prediction website this is. Start with a P.

Currently there is a 6% chance that Satoshi will move some Bitcoins in 2025. Seems like its a risk free way to make 6%.

With many years of no movement of bitcoins from Satoshi Nakamoto, at least with addresses are considered as belong to the Bitcoin founder, I believe that those bitcoins will just continue dormination forever.

6% for any movement is still over prediction with me, and I think 0% is more realistic but surely nobody make a prediction market with 0% of Satoshi Nakamoto's bitcoin movements. Even it is 0.1% or 0.5% or 1% with very high odds of winning reward, I still see it is too risky for losing my money. If odds for won reward is very high, I would bet $10 for it, why not?

[AprilioMP]

Yes, I know the website that starts with the letter P that you mean and the title is also the same as shown in the image below the OP.
Regarding conspiracy theories, if there are any in them, I don't really believe in conspiracy theories.
If Satoshi moved it, you can imagine what would happen to the market price.
Even if it is true, Bitcoin remains Bitcoin as a cash system.

[tabas]

So I found this on the prediction markets. I don't want to post the link but you all know what prediction website this is. Start with a P.

I think it's okay to mention polymarket. 

Currently there is a 6% chance that Satoshi will move some Bitcoins in 2025. Seems like its a risk free way to make 6%.

However what I noticed was that someone that bought around 341000 shares at around 11 cents, so someone is betting $37K, that some coins will be moved. Another user bet $25K that he also will move some coins.

So is there some conspiracy theory here, where someone close to Satoshi is betting on this market to score big? It can't be Satoshi himself because why turn $37K into $340K when you can just sell your billions of Bitcoin.

I'm not sure with these insiders and these people couldn't be in any relation of satoshi and they just want to purely gamble. But as we know when someone bets a lot of money, there's a likelihood that they know something, they're cooking something but let's see if this bet is going to go favored to them.

[rat03gopoh]

It's definitely a manipulation. I think the buzz with related hashtags is going on out there to take of end-of-year profits from people who believe in "what ifs" based on myths. Or perhaps there's another, unknown motive? If this trading volume reaches millions of dollars by the time the speculation ends, that's a significant transfer amount.

[Ojinga]

So I found this on the prediction markets. I don't want to post the link but you all know what prediction website this is. Start with a P.

I do not see it that way that satoshi will move any bitcoin because if he wanted to do so, he would have done that far long ago and not now when things are already getting really advanced and secondly, I think the prediction is trying to play a smart game or trick on their site users and now there is a market available for this so there are possibilities that, one member from this site might have placed that huge amount to draw the attention of the people to and bet on that very direction and the more people who bet on that direction will give them more edge over their players and it will be easier for them to regain the two major amounts wagered.

I will say that, the site is just trying to play some trick on their mind if the people and lure them to bet in their direction because I don’t see satoshi moving any coin.

[KiaKia]

When you found something on a prediction market you are not suppose to believe everything especially when its not about crypto price action, its usually all about fun on those platforms so don't take them serious all the time.

If satoshi is still alive I am wondering how he is living without is bag been touched all this while, you can't be sitting on millions and been living like someone who is not rich, but then again I remembered his purpose of creating bitcoin in the first place.

Vitalik is alive and visible to the world, he has his own bag too, I don't see how that affected Ethereum in any way, its on satoshis to make a move if he wants, it won't change anything on my side, he deserves it.

[Die_empty]

I don’t think he will. If he did, it would cause catastrophic events. People would panic because they would think he is about to take a dump on us. There simply isn’t enough liquidity in the markets to counter that dumping. It would be a bath of shit. We would be swimming in shit. Btc to $100 probably.

And that’s exactly why it won’t happen. I might take that bet and make easy money if some people think satoshi will move his coins in 2025. Sounds easy enough to me.

This is exactly what these big bettors who are choosing 'yes' want. They want people to panic and dump some coins, enabling them to manipulate the market and make a profit. But Bitcoin has passed the level where odds or predictions from a betting platform will cause a massive panic. It will take major economic or political decisions in a powerful nation like the US to move the Bitcoin market. I would choose "no" because I don't think Satoshi is moving a single Bitcoin this year.     

[lionheart78]

It's definitely a manipulation. I think the buzz with related hashtags is going on out there to take of end-of-year profits from people who believe in "what ifs" based on myths. Or perhaps there's another, unknown motive? If this trading volume reaches millions of dollars by the time the speculation ends, that's a significant transfer amount.

I also see those bets that favor that satoshi will move his Bitcoins are manipulation tactics.  It can be someone who has an agreement with the platform and the bet fund is actually coming from the platform itself, just to lure people into betting yes and make the platform rake huge winnings when the time passed and Satoshi's stash is still untouched.

It has been more than 1 decade, and still satoshi's stash is still untouched.  We don't even have any idea whether Satoshi is still alive, so it is really absurd to think, although not impossible, that Satosh will move his Bitcoin.

[348Judah]

All these are tricks to influence the market into a reaction and some are there positioned to take the Profits of your own loss if you're not careful, now is not the best time to gamble, talking about the Satoshi coins and when he will sell or send his coins, there are so manty things on the internet that could be so misleading except we are being careful to know what the actual nature or instance is.

[Way of a writer]

Why would people react to this? Is satoshis not a human? Man if I am satoshi I would move some money out for myself, this man have made a great sacrifice for the whole world and people want to panic if he decide to have some good time after years of gaining nothing for himself? What a cruel world.

There is no developer today that can make such sacrifice, sit on billions and not take out some money for themselves, I want to live to enjoy the fruits of my labour, i will never stop a man from getting what they deserved after a long time sacrifice, if satoshi want to take some money out so be it.

It seems everyone want satoshi to never spend a single Bitcoin from his holding, they want that amount to be forever locked away, thats not on anyone to decide,  as for what is trending on prediction market it might not be true, this is a good way to cause panic too.

[abaeze]

To me, it seems like a complete marketing with rewards. Some big bettors are trying to attract everyone's attention through hype. Or, in prediction markets, many times big traders want to influence the market and change the "odds". And because of this, a movement will be created in the market and profit will be made from this. Those who do this know very well that if all this news, especially the news of Satoshi Nakamoto's Bitcoin wallet being active or transferred, spreads, others will also buy, the price will increase, later they will sell, and profit will be made. I don't think there is anything like a conspiracy theory here. What is there here is speculation and trading.

[Nothingtodo]

I don't think Satoshi would do something like this. If it did, Satoshi himself knows how the Bitcoin market would change. If Satoshi had understood his own interests, he would have tried to do something with Bitcoin a long time ago, meaning he wouldn't have been in hiding or secretive for fourteen years. However, when the Bitcoin market reached $126k, Satoshi became the ninth richest person in the world. If Bitcoin doesn't move then, then there is no chance of it moving in 25 years. And if Satoshi is dead, there is no possibility of moving it in the future.

[tsaroz]

So I found this on the prediction markets. I don't want to post the link but you all know what prediction website this is. Start with a P.

Currently there is a 6% chance that Satoshi will move some Bitcoins in 2025. Seems like its a risk free way to make 6%.

However what I noticed was that someone that bought around 341000 shares at around 11 cents, so someone is betting $37K, that some coins will be moved. Another user bet $25K that he also will move some coins.

So is there some conspiracy theory here, where someone close to Satoshi is betting on this market to score big? It can't be Satoshi himself because why turn $37K into $340K when you can just sell your billions of Bitcoin.

It's interesting to see such betting markets but I believe Satoshi won't be moving his coins in 2025 or 2026. If he were to move it, he'd have done it earlier.
The way satoshi maintained his anonymity from the very start and how he took every steps with care not to expose himself in any way makes me believe he didn't wanted to be revealed and he (at least the satoshi identity of him) didn't wanted to profit from bitcoin. Moving his coins at this time in history would be against that ideology.
Other probable reason for inactivity could be death, defunct or lost keys which would also make the coins unmovable. So, yes the 6% should be a safe investment.

[Felicity_Tide]

Quite an interesting discussion.
But I strongly believe a large number of people who knows Bitcoin and its History too well don't see this happening anytime soon, but considering the fact that these people are literally betting for a move alone and not a sell makes it a bit interesting. But my question is, how are they going to figure out the particular wallets owned by Satoshi himself?. Are there any particular list of addresses that are available online that this actual prediction is based on?.

I really need to look into how the whole thing came about, and morever, we are less than three months away from 2026, so I can't understand why someone would want to bet on something that doesn't have a certainty.