Cycle Counting, If We Can Choose.

[Obim34]

We've talked about Bitcoin cycle severally, but I would like to know what we would prefer when counting.

How we calculate the four years cycle.

1. Prefer we begin from 2009 and forward, that is 2009-2012, 2013-2016... ETC

2. Prefer we begin from when the lowest dip happened - when we achieve our ATH.

[PrivacyG]

It depends really.  Are you talking about Market cycles or Halving cycles?  If you choose any of the two then you already have the answer for your question.  Market cycles are APPROXIMATELY four years long but I believe that is except 2009 to 2012.  Bitcoin was swinging way more at the time.

I typically talk about Halving cycles when I say 'cycle'.  Because the Market cycles are approximately four years long, it does not make much sense to separate the two in my opinion.

[Mia Chloe]

We've talked about Bitcoin cycle severally, but I would like to know what we would prefer when counting.
How we calculate the four years cycle.
1. Prefer we begin from 2009 and forward, that is 2009-2012, 2013-2016... ETC
2. Prefer we begin from when the lowest dip happened - when we achieve our ATH.

You can personally choose when the lowest dip happened as the start point for your calculation of the 4-year cycle however the original and correct calculation is starting from approximately 2009. What the 4 year cycle actually means according to the Bitcoin protocol is how halving occurs slashing block rewards in half after every successfully mined 210,000 blocks so it's not based on four years literally rather on block count.

However it just so happens that the total blocks to be mined before the next halving usually happens around 4 years owing to the fact that the network difficulty adjusts as more miners join or leave.

[I_Anime]

We've talked about Bitcoin cycle severally, but I would like to know what we would prefer when counting.

How we calculate the four years cycle.

1. Prefer we begin from 2009 and forward, that is 2009-2012, 2013-2016... ETC

2. Prefer we begin from when the lowest dip happened - when we achieve our ATH.

Both methods have logic behind them . When come to cycle( 2009-2012, 2013-2016..) ties directly to the halving schedule , which is the core of bitcoin’s design . That’s why most of the time we  say  in every 4 years bitcoin halving will take place , and that same four years period represents a whole cycle . Which means that bitcoin has undergo the total of four cycles.

[Gozie51]

How we calculate the four years cycle.

1. Prefer we begin from 2009 and forward, that is 2009-2012, 2013-2016... ETC

2. Prefer we begin from when the lowest dip happened - when we achieve our ATH.

In the midst of these two, I consider the first to be the proper circle count because it has connection with halving count and that is traceable to btc history from 2009. More reason to this is that ATH doesn't happen in isolation. Btc ATH happens always after a halving, that when we get a new ATH record. So I think that's the proper circle count for btc. For example, how do we begin to calculate how many times the ATH has been overtaken by new price in a circle? Just this few months this year from may,  we have had different and the most memorable are two that I still remember, that is the bitcoin pizza day in May 22 and the recent $122k ATH that crashed back to $104k. So it is going to look complicated and confusing to calculate bitcoin circle using ATH instead of halving circle.

[kotajikikox]

It depends really.  Are you talking about Market cycles or Halving cycles?  If you choose any of the two then you already have the answer for your question.  Market cycles are APPROXIMATELY four years long but I believe that is except 2009 to 2012.  Bitcoin was swinging way more at the time.

I typically talk about Halving cycles when I say 'cycle'.  Because the Market cycles are approximately four years long, it does not make much sense to separate the two in my opinion.

It wouldn't make sense to separate them because the bear cycles and the bull cycles are often signified by halving event. For example, when the halving event happened after that is the start of bull cycle. So they come hand in hand and their timelines aren't that much different.

[Richbased]

We've talked about Bitcoin cycle severally, but I would like to know what we would prefer when counting.

How we calculate the four years cycle.

1. Prefer we begin from 2009 and forward, that is 2009-2012, 2013-2016... ETC

2. Prefer we begin from when the lowest dip happened - when we achieve our ATH.

I rather prefer we start from the first halving event which occurred on November 28, 2012 after which you can count 4 years from the previous halvings which makes up a cycle and so on.

If we are to go by the lowest DIP i think that should be in June 2011 when the price of bitcoin dropped from close to $30 to $2 during the Gox Flash Crash, i think it should be the lowest DIP of all time because the price of bitcoin almost crashed by 99%.

[EL MOHA]

We've talked about Bitcoin cycle severally, but I would like to know what we would prefer when counting.

How we calculate the four years cycle.

1. Prefer we begin from 2009 and forward, that is 2009-2012, 2013-2016... ETC

2. Prefer we begin from when the lowest dip happened - when we achieve our ATH.

If you look at the years you pointed out on the first case you will notice that they perfectly coincides with halving period, this is not a coincidence but the fact that bitcoin cycle is actually calculated or counted between halving periods as this is the most accurate way of measurement. This halving period to as explained by Mia Chloe is based on the number of blocks mined because time duration mostly differs for mining a block since the time to mine a block isn’t a standard time but rather an average timing.

Using the second option will be bad because some dips might looks like it is beginning of bearish season but they are just corrections and after few days or month you see them back up again

However it just so happens that the total blocks to be mined before the next halving usually happens around 4 years owing to the fact that the network difficulty adjusts as more miners join or leave.

Thoughts it’s about the hash power not necessarily new miners leaving or coming since it’s actually the hashrate that can increase or decrease and this hashrate isn’t really about miners but the mining equipment, so a specific miner can actually replaces less efficient mining equipment with a more efficient mining machine or vise versa to increase or decrease the hashrate and this what the difficulty actually adjusts

[uneng]

Cycles from one halving to another, which usually comprehend a bearish and bullish season, the highs and lows of Bitcoin market. The ideal is to enter during the bearish seasons, so you can profit during the bullish ones. It wasn't that hard to identify the right moment on past cycles, but if the price doesn't change much from now on, it can be tricky to decide when starting to invest. That is why many prefer DCA method.

I still expect a major crash in Bitcoin price, but if the crash doesn't happen, it means we are already in a very new chapter of Bitcoin's story, since the fluctations we are seeing right now are inedit, bringing much more stability to Bitcoin than we had in previous years.

[Cryptomultiplier]

​I believe there is a standard to count cycles in Bitcoin calendar and it basically revolves around the halving event. So anyone who wants to understand the best time in the cycle to invest must look deep into the schedule of the halving and the after results of the halving.

To keep track of the halving dates from start till now is important in cycle counting, but not as important as tracking the block height within the time in between the halving event to be more accurate.

The halving event is often followed by a rather predictable market phase that has almost been a single pattern from the first halving to the fourth and to know the phases between post-bearish seasons to pre-bullish seasons is key in taking advantage of the market in the best cycle season.

Lastly, for a more professional touch and comprehension, one can use on-chain indicators for clearer analysis and it is used with the aim to help to estimate the peak and bottom periods within the halving cycle, so as to help choose correctly when to invest within or know exactly how to calculate the four year cycle by personal understanding.

[The Cryptovator]

We've talked about Bitcoin cycle severally, but I would like to know what we would prefer when counting.

How we calculate the four years cycle.

1. Prefer we begin from 2009 and forward, that is 2009-2012, 2013-2016... ETC

2. Prefer we begin from when the lowest dip happened - when we achieve our ATH.

Cycle doesn't make sense at all. There is no global cycle for Bitcoin growth. Do you believe Bitcoin has to follow any cycle? I don't think so, because each analyser makes their own calculation, and they provide an explanation. So far I am active in a couple of crypto analysis groups, and I noticed each one has a different style. Sometimes they analyse based on cycle, sometimes make string lines, etc. To be honest, it doesn't make sense for me. It might match sometimes, but in the next cycle that won't happen anymore.

For me it does matter how Bitcoin is acting right now. What's the overall global condition, and how would it impact crypto? Bitcoin always moves based on investors' interest, not by following a cycle or an old chart. It doesn't necessarily move the same chart every cycle; it does an easy wash. Follow the public and institutional interest, find the dip and do DCA. That would be better for us.

[Ojima-ojo]

What cycle are you talking about, if I can get you clearly you talking about Bitcoin market cycle calculated based of technical analysis, reading charts and giving a space of 4 years.

This cycle is alot different from the Bitcoin halving cycle, and halving cycle is calculated based on blocks and for that reason until it reaches that block seize that usher in new Bitcoin halving cycle no market price and value can influence that.