''BTC has completed its 2025 cycle''

[Junii]

So people are saying that btc has made its 2025 top.What do you guys think ?I personally don't believe that because there still two rate cuts expected one in 28 october and other in december,so i don't think the top is in yet.

[uchegod-21]

So people are saying that btc has made its 2025 top.What do you guys think ?I personally don't believe that because there still two rate cuts expected one in 28 october and other in december,so i don't think the top is in yet.

How did they arrive at this conclusion? BTC this period is so unpredictable and we should be prepared to expect the unpredictable at any time. These past weeks, there have been lots of speculations concerning the price of BTC for the remains months of these year which the current state of bitcoin now has left many disappointed.

Just like you, I don't think this is the right time to write off this year's cycle. This might just be a temporary pullback. I am still optimistic that a new ATH will still be reached before this year runs out.

[rat03gopoh]

So people are saying that btc has made its 2025 top.What do you guys think ?

That makes sense if we can assume the pattern of previous cycles. However, 2025 is not 2021 or 2017; macroeconomic variables, liquidity, and institutional adoption are fundamentally different, which I believe will lead to a new pattern. Furthermore, two expected interest rate cuts this year contribute to the general perception that this bullish cycle will last longer.
I remain optimistic that the recent $224k wasn't the new ATH.

[Faisal2202]

So people are saying that btc has made its 2025 top.What do you guys think ?I personally don't believe that because there still two rate cuts expected one in 28 october and other in december,so i don't think the top is in yet.

Interest rates are good catalyst, but sometimes you know the news sells earliers, so if the community is already aware of the rate cuts, like majority of it, that means the news has already been sold, so now there is no point in speculating this factor, although when the rates will actually but cut that day, market will be volatile, like it can go up or down.

But you can be right about the market's cycle, because I have seen, the market usually dumps after 15th of October, this time it has not, which is showing the base has been stronger than before, why I beleive the market starts bear cycle till 15th of october, because of the past events and patterns.

It does not matter market dumps or pumps, because the time to the next bull run is very short now, that I can bear it, can you?

[bangjoe]

Currently it is quite difficult to conclude whether the cycle has ended early or not for Bitcoin's peak because today we are in quite deep confusion with the market situation, seeing how bad sentiment from the US and China conflict is, looking at the market reaction yesterday makes us pessimistic about whether this will be the end or not, because Bittcoin prices above $100k are already high prices, this is very vulnerable to sentiment that the cycle has finished and will face a bearish market.

On the other hand we can also see that there is still the possibility of getting another increase because there are still two months left for bitcoin in the 4 year cycle, I am not referring to cutting interest rates because that is really a bad thing if it is used as a reference for you.

[Swordsoffreedom]

If you believe the bull market is not over yet, bitcoin price has not peaked yet, you just need to stick to your stance. You don't need to listen to others or argue with them when they can't guarantee anything. Moreover, that’s simply the nature of financial markets, bulls and bears coexist. So don't be surprised when many people think the opposite of you.

By the way, to determine whether the bull market is over or not, you need more data and more in-depth analysis. Relying on the Fed cutting interest rates is not enough to prove that the bull market is not over.

[CryptoBuds]

I'm with you, I also don't believe the bull season is over, and we're entering the bear season. But I think those who say bitcoin has peaked and btc has completed its cycle are not wrong. Because in all fairness, no one knows what's going on and what's going to happen next.

What evidence do we have that the bull run will continue and bitcoin will hit ATHs? What guarantees that lowering interest rates will boost bitcoin prices? Like the last rate cut, Bitcoin not only did not go up, but fell. Likewise, they have no evidence that bear season has arrived. So it's still too early to conclude who is right and who is wrong.

Let's wait and see what happens next.

[ginsan]

So people are saying that btc has made its 2025 top.What do you guys think ?

That makes sense if we can assume the pattern of previous cycles. However, 2025 is not 2021 or 2017; macroeconomic variables, liquidity, and institutional adoption are fundamentally different, which I believe will lead to a new pattern. Furthermore, two expected interest rate cuts this year contribute to the general perception that this bullish cycle will last longer.
I remain optimistic that the recent $224k wasn't the new ATH.

Bitcoin's cycle is likely to change significantly starting in 2025, considering the macroeconomic environment, the growing number of market players, continued adoption, and the entry of companies and governments into Bitcoin. As you rightly point out, liquidity is much greater, and the Fed has a dominant influence on Bitcoin's price direction. This will be similar to the S&P with much higher volatility, and that's the part that benefits most from "volatility."

$224,000 is too high. I apologize for your expectations. $150,000 is already a high point to reach, and it's very difficult to reach it. How can your thesis suggest $224,000? Isn't that too much given the current situation? That number sounds unrealistic at this current moment, and I think it's lower than $150,000.

[Alpha Marine]

So people are saying that btc has made its 2025 top.What do you guys think ?I personally don't believe that because there still two rate cuts expected one in 28 october and other in december,so i don't think the top is in yet.

Is this the first time we're hearing this during this bull season? They said it when Bitcoin got down to about $109k in August or thereabout, only for it to go up to $124k a few weeks later. Even before that, people have been talking about how the cycle is over or "the bull run is over", but we still see a new ATH again after that, so it's not new.

People can only speculate when it comes to Bitcoin, and no matter how experienced a person can be with Bitcoin or how good at predicting prices he might be, he can never be certain about the future price of Bitcoin. There is always a margin for error. That is why it's best to just keep bitcoin for the long term and forget about the day-to-day prices. When you're holding bitcoin for the long term, you won't be bothered by what the price will be by month end except you had plans to see by that time.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

What do you guys think ?

I am thinking more and more about that possibility. I have been very bullish all year, but even the supposed Uptober is proving disappointing. I am not ruling out a big rise between now and the end of the year, but at this point I think it is more likely that the price will fluctuate sideways as it has been doing all year.

[STT]

You dont have to guess too much on the news aspect, we dont know how many cuts but Federal reserve chief is heading out next spring so he is likely to be more sensible then normal and cut less imo.
  Inflation getting out of control was a big deal last time and its hard to put the genie back in the bottle so he is leaving a situation that could possibly get out of control just as he steps down.

  Thats my guess on the news but I would suggest just watching the dollar index.   At present there is a series of higher lows but without a sequence of highs leading us past 100 on the index reliably, I dont think Dollar is especially strong hence a halt to BTC trend is not so likely.
  There is an indication that BTC resolves higher drawing on conclusions on multiple time frames, such as the 200 day average which is below the BTC price today for example.  That long term conclusion is likely superior to evidence we have available of a more short term basis.

[Awaklara]

So people are saying that btc has made its 2025 top.What do you guys think ?I personally don't believe that because there still two rate cuts expected one in 28 october and other in december,so i don't think the top is in yet.

The market situation may change and undergo adjustments as government enthusiasm and institutional participation in the market increase. Some people may already be preparing for the upcoming downturn cycle, especially when looking at the decline that occurred some time ago.
However, we cannot yet accurately predict Bitcoin's next move. It is possible that we are not done for this year and may still see the next pump occur. But we can wait to see what will actually happen towards the end of this month and going into the end of the year.

[aoluain]

Well based on historical timing around this time after the halving is when the cycle ends
so personally I wouldnt be shocked because I am kind of expecting it.

Its possible that the recent down turn in the market has triggered this thinking. I could
also be way too early to call a "Bear market" also maybe external factors like rate cuts etc.
could  send the markets into more of a decline.

[BitHodlers]

Bitcoin has never completed a top in October, so you should use your head and not open these threads. You could have easily figured out this yourself by looking at the charts from the past.

I am thinking more and more about that possibility. I have been very bullish all year, but even the supposed Uptober is proving disappointing. I am not ruling out a big rise between now and the end of the year, but at this point I think it is more likely that the price will fluctuate sideways as it has been doing all year.

What exactly was supposed to happen in your Uptober? We were already at twice the price of the ATH from the previous cycle. A small leg up would get us closer to 3x, at around $150k.

[Ruttoshi]

What do you guys think ?

I am thinking more and more about that possibility. I have been very bullish all year, but even the supposed Uptober is proving disappointing. I am not ruling out a big rise between now and the end of the year, but at this point I think it is more likely that the price will fluctuate sideways as it has been doing all year.

October didn't disappoint anyone expecting the price of bitcoin to skyrocket because bitcoin created a new ATH this month and that alone has proven that October is a bullish month for bitcoin despite what the price of bitcoin is currently. You should know that Trump news always affects the market which is the main reason why bitcoin price is on the dip.

However, the price will still bounce back since we are close to the end of the year. We are expecting Fed to cut rate twice before the end of the year, this is will to a good pump in bitcoin price and we might see a new ATH at $130k. The bull run isn't over yet.

[YOSHIE]

So people are saying that btc has made its 2025 top.What do you guys think ?I personally don't believe that because there still two rate cuts expected one in 28 october and other in december,so i don't think the top is in yet.

Bitcoin observers have said, if the government has entered the crypto market and their aim is to adopt it on a certain scale, that's when Bitcoin price speculation will have difficulty. they can play in the market as they want, unlike when five years have passed, the government still thinks Bitcoin is strange.

Overall the price of Bitcoin is currently still a mystery, if we speculate in 2025, the peak may be wrong or right.

[rat03gopoh]

$224,000 is too high. I apologize for your expectations. $150,000 is already a high point to reach, and it's very difficult to reach it.

My bad, I thought I wrote $124k there for the latest ATH, haha!
I also expect Bitcoin to reach the $150k area if the Fed actually cuts interest rates twice, accompanied by gradually increasing liquidity and consistent (but not euphoric) ETF inflow. At least that's the most realistic scenario.

How can your thesis suggest $224,000? Isn't that too much given the current situation?

Well, $224k is actually one of several psychological figures if we can project a more extreme scenario like an aggressive Fed pivot, say they cut interest rates 3 or more times consecutively. Keep in mind that this bullish cycle could be longer, and the most extreme psychological figure among many speculators is $280k in Q2 2026.

[ColdLava40]

So people are saying that btc has made its 2025 top.What do you guys think ?I personally don't believe that because there still two rate cuts expected one in 28 october and other in december,so i don't think the top is in yet.

The recent fiscal disruption associated with the US government shutdown in October has injected a significant measure of exogenous volatility into global markets. This instability primarily impacts the US Dollar’s  standing as a reserve currency, which indirectly influences the Bitcoin market.

We can't definitely be sure where the market is headed now. We just have to let it play out and see what it has for us in the remaining months of 2025. It already did well in the past months. What we should hope for now is bitcoin remaining above the $100k price.

[Jewan420]

So people are saying that btc has made its 2025 top.What do you guys think ?I personally don't believe that because there still two rate cuts expected one in 28 october and other in december,so i don't think the top is in yet.

Don't compare 2025 to 2021 or 2017, you might make a mistake in your prediction. Times have changed and demand has changed, while supply has decreased. So now we can expect to see Bitcoin more bullish than before. Even big institutions or countries are leaning towards Bitcoin. So just because someone says something doesn't mean it's true, everyone can make a guess, but at the end of the day it's just a guess, not a sure thing. I guess we're not through 2025 yet.

[coolcoinz]

So people are saying that btc has made its 2025 top.What do you guys think ?

That makes sense if we can assume the pattern of previous cycles. However, 2025 is not 2021 or 2017; macroeconomic variables, liquidity, and institutional adoption are fundamentally different, which I believe will lead to a new pattern. Furthermore, two expected interest rate cuts this year contribute to the general perception that this bullish cycle will last longer.
I remain optimistic that the recent $224k wasn't the new ATH.

The pattern is completely different. How can it continue in some parts and not in other?

Yes, the number of weeks since the halving would suggest we should have topped already. That's one of the main arguments bears are using right now.

What's different?
First of all we've started the rally before the halving which was the first time in history.
There was no blow-off top.
This is the longest and the weakest bull market in history.
According to the market data, we haven't seen retail interest which also is the first time ever that bitcoin was only pumped by institutions.

I feel like this bull market is completely different and will last much longer than the previous ones.