Btc less profitable than Nasdaq 100 YTD

[Don Pedro Dinero]

Can anyone explain this? I think it breaks all the models we had based on previous cycles. Bitcoin is less profitable this year than the Nasdaq 100, when we are in the post-halving year and we haven't even doubled the previous cycle's all-time high.





It's 'just' 3% less profitable than Nasdaq 100 but not what one would have expected.

[EqualTowel2294]

The explanation is simple. If you ask me if you check and compare both both markets, you will notice that Bitcoin has become more volatile than it usually does over the years since the involvement of more institutional investors, bitcoin price movement is not more actively linked to tech and stock as it usually does in the past based on my observation.

Let's check for the bitcoin halving event. In the last circle, if we check price movement during the time for bitcoin halving, we often experience a move either by 2 X or even more on bitcoin price, but now the market is more dominated by institutional investors as they control the demand, adding to the fact that governments have picked interest in the same market.

In the past one year, bitcoin has been less volatile than almost company which is under Nasdaq100. Let's also not forget to include the Trump administration involvement in crypto, which makes his moves have an effect on the market, more like an indirect manipulation of the market, and how panic sellers easily react to his tariff hike announcement when it could have hold little to no effect on the market.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

You don't know anything, my friend EqualTowel2294. You'd better find out how things work before you start spouting opinions, otherwise you'll end up on ignore lists, starting with mine. Since you're a newbie, I'll do you the courtesy of responding.

The explanation is simple. If you ask me if you check and compare both both markets, you will notice that Bitcoin has become more volatile than it usually does over the years since the involvement of more institutional investors,

Rubbish, 2025 is for bitcoin the least volatile year.

bitcoin price movement is not more actively linked to tech and stock as it usually does in the past based on my observation. 

Well, profitability is quite similar YTD.

Let's check for the bitcoin halving event.

You just have to wait for almost 3 years.

In the last circle, if we check price movement during the time for bitcoin halving, we often experience a move either by 2 X or even more on bitcoin price, but now the market is more dominated by institutional investors as they control the demand, adding to the fact that governments have picked interest in the same market, 

This is just generic rubbish that doesn't mean anything.

[_act_]

What that really matters to us is that bitcoin is an asset of value. Where the price is today will not be where the price would be after a long period of time, the price would have increased and it would be significantly.

Also with Bitcoin, I have the full control of my money is another thing, what stocks can not give me. I totally prefer bitcoin.

[philipma1957]

Until BTC loses it 10 year hodl and make a ton of profit there is nothing to worry about.

high to high

2009 to 2019  1 cent to    11,600
2010 to 2020 30 cent to     3,900
2011 to 2021  4.46   to     69,100
2012 to 2022 13.21 to      44,000
2013 to 2023 1300 to       43,000
2014 to 2024.   820 to    106,300
2015 to 2025    400  to   126,300


when this streak ends you can worry about btc  as you can see in every case the gains are 30x or more

so in 2017 we were 19200 which means in 2027 we are very likely to pass 192,000

[Don Pedro Dinero]

What that really matters to us is that bitcoin is an asset of value. Where the price is today will not be where the price would be after a long period of time, the price would have increased and it would be significantly.

Also with Bitcoin, I have the full control of my money is another thing, what stocks can not give me. I totally prefer bitcoin.

Agreed but this year is performing worse than what we expected. That's what I wanted to highlight.

Until BTC loses it 10 year hodl and make a ton of profit there is nothing to worry about.

<...>
so in 2017 we were 19200 which means in 2027 we are very likely to pass 192,000

Well, but what you've put in bold is what isn't happening this year. I'm OK if the return from now on is less than we would have expected, because as _act_ says, if you manage it with your passwords, you're in control. Apart from the fact that it's totally limited. But the fact that it's performing very similarly to the Nasdaq 100 this year gives me pause for thought.

[logfiles]

Sometimes, it's all just a matter of perspective, depending on the conditions of the different markets at any given time. Bitcoin is not going to be more profitable than Nasdaq 100 at all time frames or all the time. Obviously, in certain time frames, Nasdaq 100 will appear more profitable. For example, most people considered October as a good month for Bitcoin (Uptober) according to past occurrences until this year's October

If we really want a proper perspective, let's do a 4 year, 6 year or 10 year time frame comparison.

[rat03gopoh]

When discussing this year's performance, both must be measured through December 31st to be fair. After all, Bitcoin's long-term growth potential remains; I still don't see spectacular "explosion" like 2024 when it first surpassed $100k. The race is still alive.

[stompix]

Can anyone explain this?

Yup , pretty easy!


Assuming record constant growth for anything is a mistake, just as is believing in cycles.
Bitcoin is not some magical item that would be able to outperform everything, most of its explosive growth came because it wasn't priced at anything, had it been priced like stocks are at the start it would not have been worth 1 cent or a dollar and it would have been had a far more normal growth trajectory. Now it's just entering the mainstream stuff where investment and profit taking from those investments align it with traditional, like commodities stock and others.

Just as Bitcoin benefited from a hype to reach these levels, the hype is moving towards AI right now and AI-related stocks.
The price can't grow without money, and big money is now looking somewhere else.

2013 to 2023 1300 to       43,000
2014 to 2024.   820 to    106,300
2015 to 2025    400  to   126,300
when this streak ends you can worry about btc  as you can see in every case the gains are 30x or more

Exactly what the extrapolation stuff is about, based on this, the next price should be 50x times higher than the high in 2016, which would mean for it to be actually lower than today, at around $60k.

[d5000]

The reason is a mix of two issues (one of them is actually positive, and the other one is neutral):

- First, volatility reduction. We don't see neither extreme crashes nor extreme bullruns anymore. Some volatility still exists (see the mid-October flash crash) but it seems all big moves have a limit, where some big user (whale? institutional investor?) group will either buy or sell massively. I think this is positive and will help us in the next bear market too.
- Second, the very bullish early bull market. The big bullish moves happened either before the halving or relatively shortly afterwards, and were news-driven.

As a conclusion, this year's price movement is another hint to the decreasing importance of miners on the supply side, and thus the halvings as "drivers of price". People are shifting focus to adoption (as SoV primarily currently) and to the generally sound supply model of Bitcoin, away from some possible post-halving dynamics.

[henmark]

You meant that there are 3% difference between bitcoin and Nasdaq? What about this comparison with bitcoin's current ATH of 125k? Will we have better chance to equal? I guess that we are not yet done and we will continue our rally toward 150k so I believe that we do not need to worry about where Nasdaq is heading, we can comfortably will beat Nasdaq. I am saying this because we are in a bullish year and there are enough time left for this year to take bitcoin to further higher price levels.

Nvidia's recent rapid growth is the key behind Nasdaq whereas NYSE Composite Index is showing only 13.6% growth in this year and S7P500 is with 15.4%. So, bitcoin is doing fine in my opinion for the context that you brought here.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

You meant that there are 3% difference between bitcoin and Nasdaq? What about this comparison with bitcoin's current ATH of 125k? Will we have better chance to equal? I guess that we are not yet done and we will continue our rally toward 150k so I believe that we do not need to worry about where Nasdaq is heading, we can comfortably will beat Nasdaq. I am saying this because we are in a bullish year and there are enough time left for this year to take bitcoin to further higher price levels.

I don't understand why you want to compare apples and oranges. If I compare the price of the Nasdaq 100 from 1 January to today, I'm not going to compare it to when Bitcoin reached its all-time high, which is not today (or if hypothetically in the future it will the ath again) . At the time bitcoin reached its all-time high, I imagine it outperformed the Nasdaq 100, but the point of the thread was not so much to show whether one is slightly more or slightly less profitable than the other, but rather how disappointing this year 2025 has been, at least to date.

[adaseb]

Well Bitcoins market cap is huge, it takes large and large sums of money these days to move Bitcoins price. The Nasdaq on the other hand, its in an AI bubble.

I don't know if you follow stocks but its like the 2001 Dot com crisis all over again, and its all centered around AI and Nvidia. You got stocks like Oracle, AMD, Nvda, all breaking new ATHs because they all got some partnership with one another to build for chips. These stocks are getting pumped to unbelievable numbers and its scary when the dominos all go falling down.

When will this happen? Who knows. Took years to burst the Dotcom bubble and the GFC of 2008, so this can go on for many more months or even a year.

[Don Pedro Dinero]

Well Bitcoins market cap is huge, it takes large and large sums of money these days to move Bitcoins price. The Nasdaq on the other hand, its in an AI bubble.

I don't know what you mean by saying that the Nasdaq is an AI bubble. If you consider that the market cap of bitcoin is 2.15 trillion, you should realise that the Nasdaq 100 is much larger, at 34.27 trillion.

I don't know if you follow stocks but its like the 2001 Dot com crisis all over again, and its all centered around AI and Nvidia. You got stocks like Oracle, AMD, Nvda, all breaking new ATHs because they all got some partnership with one another to build for chips. These stocks are getting pumped to unbelievable numbers and its scary when the dominos all go falling down.

When will this happen? Who knows. Took years to burst the Dotcom bubble and the GFC of 2008, so this can go on for many more months or even a year.

Yes, I do follow stock but even the S&P 500, which hasn't so much technological weight, is more profitable than bitcoin YTD. I am not going to post screenshots again but currently btc 16% YTD, S&P 500 17%. You can check for yourself. Apart from the fact that no one has a magic wand to know whether the growth of technology companies is a bubble that will burst, or if it does, when it will happen.