Is the bull run over for bitcoin? Is it time to rotate into gold?

[headingnorth]

Bitcoin has been good to me as a holder of eight years. But I believe the bull run may have run its course this cycle.

It was probably cut short by the Trump tariff chaos and some other factors. The release of bitcoin Core 30 didn't help either.
Many have lost trust in the development team. Core has become a magnet for spammers, scammers and malware.
Until that changes I would not consider getting into bitcoin again. I will probably keep holding a smaller amount of bitcoin
but nowhere near what I used to until things improve. But for now do not trust it for holding any large amounts.

Gold outperformed everything this year and has proven to be the only true decentralized safe-haven asset.  
Bitcoin went up about 20% this year which is the same performance as the NASDAQ so it is still trading like a tech stock.
There is still two months left in the year but I think it is unlikely for bitcoin to do much better. I think there is more chance for
the bitcoin price to collapse 20% or more than to go much higher and I don't want to take the risk. It is showing a lot of weakness.

Or it could just keep trading sideways for the next several months or even years.

But gold is up 50% so far this year and has performed far better than anything else. Gold has been the only thing that isn't subject
to the whims of the stock market or a random tweet from a government official. And I no longer want to be holding anything that is so
closely correlated to those things at this time. Trump is still causing a great deal of chaos in the markets with his trade wars that has no end in sight.

In times of great uncertainly people have always turned to gold which is why it has gone up like crazy like this year.
One thing I realize is the market for bitcoin is still very small compared to gold.

The average person on the street still has no idea what bitcoin even is or understand why anyone would invest in it.
On the other hand, you can walk up to any random person on the street, and any 90-year old grandmother or any random
homeless person can tell you what gold is and explain why it is valuable.

That really is the simple explanation for why the upside potential for bitcoin is limited. That may change in the future
with greater time, public awareness and education but for now bitcoin is still a very hard thing for most people to understand.

People who are new to bitcoin also tend to get distracted by the millions of shitcoins. They start to throw away their money into
the shitcoin casino that they don't understand instead of bitcoin because their greed often gets the better of them.
They think they can get rich quick with 100x gains by gambling with XRP, fartcoin or dogecoin, etc. So bitcoin is constantly losing
potential new investors to the shitcoin casino further limiting its potential.

[Darker45]

I think the hype hasn't died down yet. The short-term potential remains vast. Huge institutions aren't done with their integration yet. I don't know how true the news are but if they are, there's still Morgan Stanley planning to offer Bitcoin trading in the first half next year. There's JPMorgan planning to allow institutional clients to use Bitcoin as collateral. There's Rumble planning to launch Bitcoin tipping feature. These and more.

As to your issues involving Core, I don't think the larger market is cognizant of that. That lack of education may actually be a blessing in disguise. Are those who are buying ETFs, for example, even aware of what's going on within the development team? I doubt. What they probably know is that Bitcoin is rising.

[headingnorth]

I think the hype hasn't died down yet. The short-term potential remains vast. Huge institutions aren't done with their integration yet. I don't know how true the news are but if they are, there's still Morgan Stanley planning to offer Bitcoin trading in the first half next year. There's JPMorgan planning to allow institutional clients to use Bitcoin as collateral. There's Rumble planning to launch Bitcoin tipping feature. These and more.

As to your issues involving Core, I don't think the larger market is cognizant of that. That lack of education may actually be a blessing in disguise. Are those who are buying ETFs, for example, even aware of what's going on within the development team? I doubt. What they probably know is that Bitcoin is rising.

The ETF investors are probably not aware of the Core disputes, but the hardcore Bitcoiners are because they tend to follow such things.  
And they are still a pretty significant part of the market.

There have been tons of stuff coming out all year long that should have been very bullish news catalysts for bitcoin.
But still the price has barely moved in reaction to any of it. It seems the tariff chaos and great economic uncertainty,
concerns with the ever-growing $38 trillion national debt, poor jobs numbers, etc. is taking precedent over everything else.

Jamie Dimon recently said something about finding cockroaches in the economy that really spooked the entire market.

[Dave1]

I think the hype hasn't died down yet. The short-term potential remains vast. Huge institutions aren't done with their integration yet. I don't know how true the news are but if they are, there's still Morgan Stanley planning to offer Bitcoin trading in the first half next year. There's JPMorgan planning to allow institutional clients to use Bitcoin as collateral. There's Rumble planning to launch Bitcoin tipping feature. These and more.

As to your issues involving Core, I don't think the larger market is cognizant of that. That lack of education may actually be a blessing in disguise. Are those who are buying ETFs, for example, even aware of what's going on within the development team? I doubt. What they probably know is that Bitcoin is rising.

The ETF investors are probably not aware of the Core disputes, but the hardcore Bitcoiners are because they tend to follow such things.  
And they are still a pretty significant part of the market.

There have been tons of stuff coming out all year long that should have been very bullish news catalysts for bitcoin.
But still the price has barely moved in reaction to any of it. It seems the tariff chaos and great economic uncertainty,
concerns with the ever-growing $38 trillion national debt, poor jobs numbers, etc. is taking precedent over everything else.

Jamie Dimon recently said something about finding cockroaches in the economy that really spooked the entire market.

Not really sure what news all year long that could have push the price of Bitcoin that you're saying. We have reacted to positive news like CZ being pardon lately as it pushed the price to $113k, but eventually settled down to $111k right now as investors are trying to squeeze some money after that huge lost in the last week or so.

I don't know when is the CPI report will be coming for this month or the next month. But if that is a good news, then it could be another catalyst to push the price to even $120k'ish. If that happens then obviously we are still in the bullish state.

But I do agree, if we want to diversify, Gold could be the next best option.

[Oshosondy]

The bull run will be over, the bear market will come but the bear market will be milder than the previous bear market. Bitcoin price will increase back and get to all time high several times. Bitcoin is a deflationary currency that its price and market value will continue to increase after a long period of time.

Just diversify is what I can say because after a some time, bitcoin will hit all time high.

[Lucius]

OP, considering how many times you mentioned gold and that after 8 years you became totally pessimistic about Bitcoin, I would conclude that you haven't actually learned anything important in all that time. If in x years gold does not meet your expectations, I have no doubt that you will react in the same way.

As far as I'm concerned, sell all the BTC you have and buy gold or something else and enjoy what you call the "only true decentralized safe-haven asset." Bitcoin has potential you can't even dream of.

[Zaguru12]

Gold outperformed everything this year and has proven to be the only true decentralized safe-haven asset.  
Bitcoin went up about 20% this year which is the same performance as the NASDAQ so it is still trading like a tech stock.
There is still two months left in the year but I think it is unlikely for bitcoin to do much better. I think there is more chance for
the bitcoin price to collapse 20% or more than to go much higher and I don't want to take the risk. It is showing a lot of weakness.

In times of great uncertainly people have always turned to gold which is why it has gone up like crazy like this year.
One thing I realize is the market for bitcoin is still very small compared to gold.

Sometimes I am usually bewildered how some of you actually just jump on some conclusions, I don’t think the bitcoin market has actually been ever compared to gold and it has always been made clear that both have different volatility. You’re saying bitcoin has a small market but the comparison is with an asset which has been here for so long and has had close to 20 Trillion market cap before bitcoin arrival.

See bitcoin isn’t here to actually rival Gold or be a competition rather and alternative so if your conviction is with gold then kindly move over there, the comparison with price movements is wrong because why wasn’t this done when the market for bitcoin was buzzing. You calculated the market price of gold to have increased this year but do you know according to the market price that bitcoin opened with this year you will still be in profit if you actually still hold

[Mpamaegbu]

Bitcoin has been good to me as a holder of eight years. But I believe the bull run may have run its course this cycle.

The bull hasn't run its course from my speculation. I followed previous circle ATHs and made a decision that if Bitcoin didn't get within $150k–$200k range, I won't be perturbed. Past historical data proved that Bitcoin did at least 3x of previous ATHs to achieve a new ATH. It's yet to do that this circle. I'm optimistic it will do so before the end of this quarters. This is not a financial advice, though. It's what I've used to maintain my hodling position even with all the Trump war and Bitcoin dipping seriously. I remain unperturbed.

[Asiska02]

Bitcoin has been good to me as a holder of eight years. But I believe the bull run may have run its course this cycle.

The bull hasn't run its course from my speculation. I followed previous circle ATHs and made a decision that if Bitcoin didn't get within $150k–$200k range, I won't be perturbed. Past historical data proved that Bitcoin did at least 3x of previous ATHs to achieve a new ATH. It's yet to do that this circle. I'm optimistic it will do so before the end of this quarters. This is not a financial advice, though. It's what I've used to maintain my hodling position even with all the Trump war and Bitcoin dipping seriously. I remain unperturbed.

I am really amazed by your own perception of bitcoin and everything about how you see this bull cycle since it gives you a good reason to hold on to your bitcoin asset and not think of selling yet. As for me, I would say that Bitcoin has run its course for this bull cycle even if it hadn’t gotten to $130K yet but close to it as the present ATH. The Trump war that lead to bitcoin dipping hasn’t shown enough reason for many holders to sell yet, this is why the market is always recovering after every dip as a result of Trump news. Bitcoin does not gives signals or give specific times as to when the bull will be over but following your instincts in such situations is the best.

[Questat]

You don’t have to compromise your bitcoin for the sake of gold. Invest in both, and be patient while waiting for their best outcome after long years of hodling.

Bitcoin bull run is not over yet, wait until the year ends, and you will be surprised with a new amazing price of bitcoin, its new all time high. Although history does not repeat itself, but it’s not bad to stick with bitcoin and have high hopes on it. Bitcoin is bitcoin, it may drop sometimes, but eventually the price will recover again and reaches its new all time high. That’s how amazing bitcoin is.

[Ultegra134]

The four year old cycles aren't exactly four years, it might extend up to 2026. However, I also believe that the momentum was cut short due to Trump's announcements and imposed tariffs. I believe there's still a decent chance we'll see a recovery in the upcoming three months, but personally, it wouldn't make much difference to see it move from the current ATH up to $130,000, it's such a minor "record" from where we currently are.

Throughout these last four years, I've managed to accumulate a decent sum of Bitcoin, and times like these make me wonder what I should do. Sell or simply hold and wait till the next bull period in over four years?

[logfiles]

In the 8 years you have held Bitcoin, compare it with the performance of gold, and then tell us here which of the two assets performed well. You are not going to cherry-pick a certain time frame and then convince us here why gold is better than Bitcoin in terms of investment. Deep down in your heart, you know which one performed much better over the years.

The bull run is on, probably towards the end of the year/festive season. Gold and decentralization in the same sentence sound so stupid to be honest.

[BitMaxz]

I understand that gold has a consistent price increase, but that doesn't mean it outperforms BTC because you've already seen how the price rises.
Because you held BTC for 8 years, you may have purchased it in 2017 when the price ranged between $800 and $17,000.
If you bought at a much lower price, between $800 and $5,000, you should have made a significant profit compared to gold.

For now, at the end of the cycle, maybe we might experience a price drop, but switching to gold isn't a good idea. Maybe the best suggestion here is to have them both because both of them have different ways in how the price rises.

[BALIK]

The bull run will be over, the bear market will come but the bear market will be milder than the previous bear market. Bitcoin price will increase back and get to all time high several times. Bitcoin is a deflationary currency that its price and market value will continue to increase after a long period of time.

Just diversify is what I can say because after a some time, bitcoin will hit all time high.

In theory, with the participation of global financial institutions, Wall Street and ETFs approval. The next bitcoin bear season is expected to be milder and the bear cycle is also likely to end earlier than previous cycles. But I think it's too early to say for sure and it depends.

I mean it all depends on the economy, if the economy unfortunately falls into recession due to geopolitical tensions, wars...and that is the main cause of bear market. The bear market is not going to be any less brutal. Speculative markets like stocks and crypto could face their worst case scenario, Bitcoin could drop 60-70%, this is entirely possible.

So we should not be subjective. But of course, as always in the long run, when the recession ends, bitcoin will almost certainly recover and grow.

[btc_angela]

I understand that gold has a consistent price increase, but that doesn't mean it outperforms BTC because you've already seen how the price rises.
Because you held BTC for 8 years, you may have purchased it in 2017 when the price ranged between $800 and $17,000.
If you bought at a much lower price, between $800 and $5,000, you should have made a significant profit compared to gold.

For now, at the end of the cycle, maybe we might experience a price drop, but switching to gold isn't a good idea. Maybe the best suggestion here is to have them both because both of them have different ways in how the price rises.

And probably the question is what if Bitcoin goes on and then it parity with gold?

For now, it doesn't sound plausible, but maybe in the next couple of halvings, I'm seeing that there is a big chance that Bitcoin and Gold will be the same market cap and that will be scary as it means that investors are shifting to Bitcoin and Gold are going down.

So with that kind of argument, I will stick with Bitcoin, go all in on this in the next 10-12 years, just saying.

[adaseb]

If you had to choose between the two then you are better of staying with Bitcoin, even if both just peaked.

Look at the long term chart for Gold. You will notice it has a huge rally, and what happens after, it has a very slow decline and even trades sideways for years. It could take decades for Gold to go back down and back up again.

With Bitcoin its different because the cycles are only 4 years. What we had in Gold wasnt normal. Its not normal for Gold to trade like a meme coin. It had way too much volatility and everybody piled in and it eventually corrected.

[NewRanger]

In times of great uncertainly people have always turned to gold which is why it has gone up like crazy like this year.

In investing, losses and profits are common and generally happen to all traders and investors. The current situation may feel that way, but it's only temporary, my friend, and of course, some people fall into this category. This is a dilemma for traders who can't wait for a pullback or correction. Buying when the price is high is quite risky if we don't prepare proper money management. Waiting for a pullback or retesting during a breakout can be a good strategy.

One thing I realize is the market for bitcoin is still very small compared to gold.

Do you regret your achievements in cryptocurrencies?

Many people have experienced the same situation, and even worse. But if you still think the BTC market is small, it sounds less elegant, especially when compared to gold, where changes in direction are a natural occurrence, as well as temporary profit-taking/asset acquisition.

Everything has its time and everything has its time. Relax, my friend, and see how BTC develops next.

[Iranus]

And probably the question is what if Bitcoin goes on and then it parity with gold?

For now, it doesn't sound plausible, but maybe in the next couple of halvings, I'm seeing that there is a big chance that Bitcoin and Gold will be the same market cap and that will be scary as it means that investors are shifting to Bitcoin and Gold are going down.

So with that kind of argument, I will stick with Bitcoin, go all in on this in the next 10-12 years, just saying.

It would not be a bad idea to go all in on bitcoin if you have a long term vision as the growth potential of bitcoin is still huge. Bitcoin is still quite small compared to gold and adoption is still ongoing so in the long run it is safe to say that bitcoin will still provide better returns.

But let's be realistic, it won't be easy for bitcoin to surpass gold's market capitalization and I don't think it will happen. The gap in capitalization and demand between bitcoin and gold is too large, bitcoin will have a hard time catching up.

This only happens if bitcoin gets wider adoption/application in the real world, otherwise forget about it surpassing gold in terms of capitalization.

[Lucius]

~snip~
Throughout these last four years, I've managed to accumulate a decent sum of Bitcoin, and times like these make me wonder what I should do. Sell or simply hold and wait till the next bull period in over four years?

In situations like this, the first question you should ask yourself is "do I need the money for something now or will I need it in a month or two?" If the answer is yes, then sell part of it and use the money for what you need - whether it's buying a new TV or smartphone, or maybe renovating furniture or something similar.

In a month or two, the price could be 20% higher than today, but it could also be lower. I've been holding for about ten years, but from time to time I sell just enough to fulfill a wish, which I consider completely normal.

[Ziskinberg]

I don’t just stick to bitcoin because the market is bullish, or we are in the process of waiting for the final bull run. I stick to bitcoin because I’ve seen and experienced profitable results from it, despite of some tough times like sudden correction and price crash, wherein bitcoin would always find ways to recover and even pursue another all time high.

However, all these positivity I’ve witnessed from bitcoin, I’m also longing to make some investments with gold. And I decided to invest as well and start diversifying. For me, that’s more of a practical decision rather than leaving bitcoin just to get into gold accumulation.