Gold -> Bitcoin paradigm shift is starting?

[DrBeer]

This chart is not mine, but was posted and reposted in X.

 👀



Shower thought. Is this where the paradigm shift starts from a main Store Of Value such as Gold transfer to Bitcoin? If the markets is used as a measure of this, then let the market speak. Bitcoin may never stop surging until it reaches the total market value of Gold, and continue surging over that.

We can assume that we are simply observing (on the chart) the transfer of some investments from one asset to another. I assume that the charts for gold and Bitcoin over the last month will look no less revealing. But this is the market, this is manipulation, this is normal.

[Darker45]

I'm not, either. I'm having that opinion simply because it seems to me Bitcoin isn't a foundational technological infrastructure, therefore, dispensable in a way. I mean, it isn't a technology whose absence would mean the collapse of global vital systems or way of life or whatever. I'm hesitant whenever Bitcoin is compared with the internet, for example.

I think even this ultra-optimistic view as "Bitcoin as the Internet of Money" isn't completely out of reach, although I also don't think it's a really super-likely scenario.

This could happen if really the Bitcoin (or Lightning) wallet becomes "a must-have" where people and economic supply chains depend on to work. It would be intensely connected to the "Bitcoin as a currency" scenario, about which we don't know if it will ever materialize to the extent some early Bitcoiners have described it. But taking into account three factors which could take us there:

1) cryptocurrencies are the only really neutral and censorship resistant form of money (in terms of "nobody can prevent you to hold and transfer it"), besides perhaps cash and physical substitutes like gold which are much more clumsy to handle and will thus probably lose importance.
2) Bitcoin will be probably for decades the most important, most secure and widely accepted cryptocurrency,
3) If a second layer infrastructure develops and gets traction, Bitcoin could become the most efficient form of money too. Merchants would ask you to pay in BTC to save costs.

I agree that gold wouldn't collapse overnight also if this scenario materializes, but it would probably be enough to put its leadership as an asset in danger, with the main contender being Bitcoin.

I'm not comfortable going on arguing against Bitcoin, but this is all just for argument's sake.

Anyway, "Bitcoin as the Internet of Money" is indeed ultra-optimistic, and for a number of theoretical and practical reasons. It's probably more realistic to envision it as the native currency on the internet, but still very optimistic. However, the fact that there's none right now makes it the top contender. And, of course, just like the internet, it's global, running 24/7, permissionless, and so on. Looking at the reality, however, it appears Bitcoin is taking the route to becoming a digital gold instead.

As to your three factors, for 1, could be Monero, for example, right? For 2, could still be Monero, or is it totally impossible that one day a fork becomes more preferred? For 3, would it be equally decentralized as the base layer? To reach a certain speed as "the most efficient form of money", for example, would there be no necessary trade-offs? If merchants, being businesses, are to prioritize saving costs, would they not prefer internal transfers? CEx-to-CEx is free.

Anyway, it's quite funny we're talking about a paradigm shift, a transfer of value from gold to Bitcoin, a surge going toward gold's market cap and then Bitcoin fell below $100,000.

[stompix]

Well, I definitely can see a paradigm shift in here:



As usual, this is what happens when you cherry-pick dates and intervals, it takes then than a few months and in some cases just weeks for things to go south and bite you in the ass. But as much as I enjoy this moment, if we go below 90k and the dollar keeps strengthening, it will be some funn,y not quite that funny situation.

This could happen if really the Bitcoin (or Lightning) wallet becomes "a must-have" where people and economic supply chains depend on to work.

Here is the thing, supply chains work only with stability.
You bring anythign else, a shutdown, an economic trade war, currency exchange problems in the mix, and they fail.
My family business works on 3-5% margins, we are getting paid by suppliers on 3 and 6-month intervals on delivery, imagine we would have got paid now in crypto, it would have meant loss of profit for a 2-5 years depending on how you toss the dates!
With such volatility, will not happen!

[Franctoshi]

Shower thought. Is this where the paradigm shift starts from a main Store Of Value such as Gold transfer to Bitcoin? If the markets is used as a measure of this, then let the market speak. Bitcoin may never stop surging until it reaches the total market value of Gold, and continue surging over that.

Personally, I don't think money from Gold will shift to bitcoin. I believe money from US treasuries (dollar) will flow to gold and bitcoin.

Central banks all over the world are selling their US treasuries and buying Gold. But they may also buy bitcoin soon.

Even if it is a small amount, just a few trillions would make bitcoin skyrocket.

Bitcoin and gold will coexist, they are not competing, in my opinion.

You're right and I totally agree with you, base on how we're seeing the recent surging of Gold to $4000 plus in the price,it still shows that investors are still heavily investing on gold and not Bitcoin alone. Both assets will coexist and serve their different purposes, Bitcoin is digital and gold is physical they're quite two different asset classes that the world keep will demanding of them.

[Wind_FURY]

This chart is not mine, but was posted and reposted in X.

 👀

I got very excited about that chart, and it made me believe that the "paradigm shift" from Gold to Bitcoin will be happening soon.

I wasn't thinking about the practical question, "Would Gold investors actually buy Bitcoin after selling Gold"?

I believe that, you, my fellow plebs already know the answer to that question. It was stupid of me to believe that they would sell Gold to buy Bitcoin this cycle.

[abhiseshakana]

This chart is not mine, but was posted and reposted in X.

 👀

I got very excited about that chart, and it made me believe that the "paradigm shift" from Gold to Bitcoin will be happening soon.

I wasn't thinking about the practical question, "Would Gold investors actually buy Bitcoin after selling Gold"?

I believe that, you, my fellow plebs already know the answer to that question. It was stupid of me to believe that they would sell Gold to buy Bitcoin this cycle.

I read the chart pattern as follows:
Gold peaked in 2020, then corrected, and BTC began a major rally.
Gold peaked again in 2025, with the potential for a correction emerging, and assumptions emerged that BTC was poised to begin a major rally in 2025. Visually, it does appear as though rotational flow from gold to Bitcoin has occurred, but market patterns are insufficient structural evidence. Charts only reflect price behavior, not capital movement intention.
I'm not sure the chart depicts a shift from gold to Bitcoin, but rather a macro-rotation due to monetary policy. When gold peaked, the Fed/ECB pivoted, increasing liquidity, and Bitcoin became a new liquidity magnet. So, it wasn't money moving from gold to Bitcoin, but new money flowing into Bitcoin. Bitcoin's rally was caused by increased global liquidity, investors emboldened to take risks, increased institutional adoption, and the halving and scarcity narrative (CMIIW).
So, Bitcoin's rise after gold peaked wasn't due to a direct capital shift, but rather because global liquidity shifted from defensive assets to risky assets as the monetary cycle changed.

The paradigm shift from gold to Bitcoin (if it actually occurs) won't occur in a single cycle, but rather through a partial substitution phase, where the perception of Bitcoin as digital gold emerges. Many view Bitcoin's outperformance and gold's price stagnation as cannibalization, though that's not necessarily the case. The phenomenon of institutions and governments beginning to recognize BTC as a strategic asset with its function as a risk-on store of value, in my opinion, is a sign of a coexistence phase. When Bitcoin becomes a global reserve asset and it siphons off part of the gold market, while gold retains its status as hard money, it's a sign that Bitcoin has undergone a structural rebalancing. So, the paradigm shift isn't that gold is being replaced by Bitcoin, but rather that Bitcoin is stealing some, not all, of gold's functions.

I believe that Bitcoin's market cap could reach gold's size even without gold falling, although Bitcoin's current position is still significantly below gold's. Bitcoin doesn't need to compete with gold through gold outflows; it will achieve this through new capital growth (sovereign funds, pension funds, global liquidity, digital economy growth, long-term monetary debasement).

I tried asking my wife (a small gold investor) if she would sell gold to buy Bitcoin. The answer is no, for now, and I've discovered something that broadens my understanding: the risk profiles of gold and Bitcoin investors differ. My wife is conservative, seeking stability. Meanwhile, I (representing Bitcoin investors) am growth-oriented and embrace volatility. And our differences are minimal. Demographically, gold investors are baby boomers, unlike millennials and Gen Z, who are Bitcoin-minded. Capital transfers between two different generations won't be instantaneous (buying Bitcoin en masse in a single cycle is nearly impossible). Unlike gold, which has physical utility, Bitcoin has no physical utility, so it replaces its monetary function, not its material one.

[Wind_FURY]

This chart is not mine, but was posted and reposted in X.

 👀

I got very excited about that chart, and it made me believe that the "paradigm shift" from Gold to Bitcoin will be happening soon.

I wasn't thinking about the practical question, "Would Gold investors actually buy Bitcoin after selling Gold"?

I believe that, you, my fellow plebs already know the answer to that question. It was stupid of me to believe that they would sell Gold to buy Bitcoin this cycle.

I read the chart pattern as follows:
Gold peaked in 2020, then corrected, and BTC began a major rally.
Gold peaked again in 2025, with the potential for a correction emerging, and assumptions emerged that BTC was poised to begin a major rally in 2025. Visually, it does appear as though rotational flow from gold to Bitcoin has occurred, but market patterns are insufficient structural evidence. Charts only reflect price behavior, not capital movement intention.
I'm not sure the chart depicts a shift from gold to Bitcoin, but rather a macro-rotation due to monetary policy. When gold peaked, the Fed/ECB pivoted, increasing liquidity, and Bitcoin became a new liquidity magnet. So, it wasn't money moving from gold to Bitcoin, but new money flowing into Bitcoin. Bitcoin's rally was caused by increased global liquidity, investors emboldened to take risks, increased institutional adoption, and the halving and scarcity narrative (CMIIW).
So, Bitcoin's rise after gold peaked wasn't due to a direct capital shift, but rather because global liquidity shifted from defensive assets to risky assets as the monetary cycle changed.

The paradigm shift from gold to Bitcoin (if it actually occurs) won't occur in a single cycle, but rather through a partial substitution phase, where the perception of Bitcoin as digital gold emerges. Many view Bitcoin's outperformance and gold's price stagnation as cannibalization, though that's not necessarily the case. The phenomenon of institutions and governments beginning to recognize BTC as a strategic asset with its function as a risk-on store of value, in my opinion, is a sign of a coexistence phase. When Bitcoin becomes a global reserve asset and it siphons off part of the gold market, while gold retains its status as hard money, it's a sign that Bitcoin has undergone a structural rebalancing. So, the paradigm shift isn't that gold is being replaced by Bitcoin, but rather that Bitcoin is stealing some, not all, of gold's functions.

I believe that Bitcoin's market cap could reach gold's size even without gold falling, although Bitcoin's current position is still significantly below gold's. Bitcoin doesn't need to compete with gold through gold outflows; it will achieve this through new capital growth (sovereign funds, pension funds, global liquidity, digital economy growth, long-term monetary debasement).

I tried asking my wife (a small gold investor) if she would sell gold to buy Bitcoin. The answer is no, for now, and I've discovered something that broadens my understanding: the risk profiles of gold and Bitcoin investors differ. My wife is conservative, seeking stability. Meanwhile, I (representing Bitcoin investors) am growth-oriented and embrace volatility. And our differences are minimal. Demographically, gold investors are baby boomers, unlike millennials and Gen Z, who are Bitcoin-minded. Capital transfers between two different generations won't be instantaneous (buying Bitcoin en masse in a single cycle is nearly impossible). Unlike gold, which has physical utility, Bitcoin has no physical utility, so it replaces its monetary function, not its material one.

The chart about 2025 may happen sooner or later, but the there's a good debate against that. Does the person who made that presumption actually believe that Gold sellers, which are presumably Gold Bugs, are actually going to transfer capital to Bitcoin?

If he truly believes the Gold Bugs will sell Gold because they like Bitcoin now, then I'll tell him he IS WRONG. Gold Bugs are like Bitcoin Maximalists.

 

[coolcoinz]

I also believe that money will flow to btc from gold, but this gold run is a sign of big trouble in the fiat system.

On one hand we have a ath in gold slowly starting to correct, which could mean that digital gold will have its run in a few months, but at the same time we have record US debt, easing, trouble in Japan...  In the long run bitcoin will do its thing, but it could take longer if countries start to default.

[Stavri]

This chart is not mine, but was posted and reposted in X.

 👀



Shower thought. Is this where the paradigm shift starts from a main Store Of Value such as Gold transfer to Bitcoin? If the markets is used as a measure of this, then let the market speak. Bitcoin may never stop surging until it reaches the total market value of Gold, and continue surging over that.

I think Bitcoin is still not a value you can really compare to gold. it is still way too open to manipulation. People don’t trust Bitcoin the same way they trust gold. And honestly, the whole crypto market plays a big role in that. The space is still messy and full of ups and downs...

[Lucius]

Never say never, but my opinion is that we are still very far from any global change in the sense that people will start dumping gold to invest in Bitcoin. After 15+ years, we have maybe 2% to max 3% of people in the world who have invested in Bitcoin and it is unlikely that this percentage will exceed 10% in another 15 years.

It's not that Bitcoin as an idea isn't something really unique, but the reason why it hasn't been accepted to a greater extent is that at least 90% of people in the world behave like robots who are programmed to listen to what their rulers tell them. Central banks around the world are still warning against investing in Bitcoin, and encouraging people to invest in government bonds and similar nonsense - and as far as we can see, it's working.

[Wind_FURY]

Gold went through one of its largest DIPs during the current surge. We could be seeing early buyers before the surge selling a large amount of what they bought.

If it is actually the end of its Bull Cycle, THEN we probably could see it DIP more then surge again. BUT the surge will NOT be enough to surpass the current All Time High, THEN it will truly crash.