Financial collapse of the Russian economy

[bitLeap]

In essence, the Central Bank has acknowledged what the West has long been saying: Russia is critically dependent on oil—and without it, the entire economy collapses. Sanctions are working—they are hitting income, exports, and investment. Reserves are dwindling, and Moscow will soon be unable to meet its obligations. Living standards are falling, inflation is burning through savings, and the domestic market is shrinking.

This is not the first time that we have heard that the Russian economy will collapse. At the beginning of this invasion, some economists predicted that with the sanctions from the US and Europe, Russia might not be able to finance the war for more than six months. But Putin has been able to build a sanctions-proof economy. Regardless of the sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, Russia knows how to bypass them. They have been selling their oil to other countries through middlemen. I do not doubt that the war is really draining the economy of Russia, but I don't think the economy will collapse anytime soon.     

This means that it is about the resilience of the Russian economy that will survive until Ukraine loses or vice versa. But if I think back that I have heard from various talks in the world economic channel about 1 year ago about the Russian economy that will be destroyed but until now Russia has survived even in the midst of world sanctions. Therefore Russia seems to have thought about it long ago and has been prepared with all the threats including to maintain the country economy.

[Mate2237]

Instead of us trying to say that the Russian economy is collapsing it's better we should be more concerned about how the Russians have been able to keep their economy running despite the huge sanctions they have faced since the war on Ukraine started some years ago. Russia has been able to survive without the European Union and even American. This is one big lesson that nations should learn especially developing countries which wants to stand on their own, the west and America will always come up with one story just to destroy the economy of any country that wants to challenge the status quo.


To me any economic measures that Russia is trying to put in place is in their best interest because at this present point in time what is most important is saving their economy which they have been able to do over the years, this is something they have to go through for the sake of the interest of the Russia because, this whole war with Ukraine is a war that if lost or won  will decide the future of Russia.

[imthegreat]

The Russian economy is tied to oil. It's essentially a huge "banana republic" dependent solely on oil and gas, and if they can't sell these commodities, the country will have problems. Because other countries profit enormously from technology like South Korea, or tourism like Turkey or the Dominican Republic, or from a banking system like Switzerland, or an open labor market like India and China. But Russia has none of these things.
The fact is, it's not just Russia itself that depends on oil; many other countries depend on purchasing this oil and gas.

[Marvell1]

The Russian economy is tied to oil. It's essentially a huge "banana republic" dependent solely on oil and gas, and if they can't sell these commodities, the country will have problems. Because other countries profit enormously from technology like South Korea, or tourism like Turkey or the Dominican Republic, or from a banking system like Switzerland, or an open labor market like India and China. But Russia has none of these things.
The fact is, it's not just Russia itself that depends on oil; many other countries depend on purchasing this oil and gas.

Every country has its own strengths, not just Russia. Although the Russian economy is tied to and dependent on oil, and they would be in trouble if they could not sell oil. The same will happen in other countries around the globe such as Japan and South Korea. These two countries do not have mineral resources so instead they orient their economies towards manufacturing and exporting technology or in other words they are dependent on technology.
If I remember correctly, Japan's economy depends on auto and machinery exports while South Korea depends on semiconductors. What would happen to those two economies if the US and Europe could produce those things themselves?

Similar to other countries, each country has its own strengths, no country is perfect and can be self-sufficient in all aspects to survive.

By the way, Russia is one of the world's largest energy suppliers while energy like oil and gas are extremely important. So the scenario that they cannot sell oil sounds ridiculous, and only the Western press can make up such stories.

[Disconnecting]

The Russian economy is tied to oil. It's essentially a huge "banana republic" dependent solely on oil and gas, and if they can't sell these commodities, the country will have problems. Because other countries profit enormously from technology like South Korea, or tourism like Turkey or the Dominican Republic, or from a banking system like Switzerland, or an open labor market like India and China. But Russia has none of these things.
The fact is, it's not just Russia itself that depends on oil; many other countries depend on purchasing this oil and gas.

It is true that the Russian economy is mainly dependent on oil and gas but that is not why it can be called a “banana republic”. Russia does not survive only by selling energy, they also play a significant role in exporting military equipment, nuclear technology, agricultural products and minerals. Although oil and gas are the backbone of their economy, many countries in the world market are dependent on these resources, such as Europe, China and even India. Therefore, if Russia cannot sell oil, then not only theirs but also the economic structure of many countries will collapse because no economy can survive alone in the modern era because it basically has to survive by depending on each other. Russia has made that reality its own because despite Western sanctions, they have created alternative markets and trade routes. Therefore, calling it simply an “oil-dependent weak economy” is nothing more than belittling the reality.

[Lucius]

~snip~
When a warring state is unable to even maintain its own armed forces, it's not just a crisis—it's a financial collapse. To avoid becoming a permanent colony of China, Russia has only one option: end the war and save the economy. Which path will Russia choose, given that ending the war in Ukraine is mortally dangerous for both Putin himself and his regime as a whole?

You forgot to mention one very important fact that benefits Russia, and that is the hundreds of thousands or even millions of expendable people that it sends and will continue to send to die for the political goals of the crazy emperor Putler. Therefore, regardless of the bad economic indicators, there should be no doubt that the war will continue, because Russia has enough weapons and more than enough people to wage war as long as it seems necessary.

Maybe some people want to show that sanctions work, but if the West wanted to seriously break Russia, then it would have introduced serious sanctions a long time ago, and everything that the US or the EU is doing in this regard is unlikely to harm Russia to the extent that its economy will be so shaken that it will agree to negotiations or an end to the war.

[Argoo]

Instead of us trying to say that the Russian economy is collapsing it's better we should be more concerned about how the Russians have been able to keep their economy running despite the huge sanctions they have faced since the war on Ukraine started some years ago. Russia has been able to survive without the European Union and even American. This is one big lesson that nations should learn especially developing countries which wants to stand on their own, the west and America will always come up with one story just to destroy the economy of any country that wants to challenge the status quo.


To me any economic measures that Russia is trying to put in place is in their best interest because at this present point in time what is most important is saving their economy which they have been able to do over the years, this is something they have to go through for the sake of the interest of the Russia because, this whole war with Ukraine is a war that if lost or won  will decide the future of Russia.

Almost any sanctions can be circumvented in numerous ways, which is precisely what Russia is doing. But this doesn't mean they don't harm its economy. Russia also prepared for war and accumulated significant reserves, but these aren't bottomless.

The first budget deficit of 1.2 trillion rubles was announced in 2025. This figure is usually adjusted in October, but in May it was announced that the deficit would grow to 3.8 trillion rubles. Now the deficit exceeds even that figure, so the 2026 budget states that the final deficit will be 5.8 trillion rubles. If Putin wants to continue the war, he will need to find the money to continue it, but the economic situation for Russia is becoming increasingly dire, and the further it goes, the fewer even the worst-case scenarios become. From here on, only catastrophic...

[Smack That Ace]

The Russian economy is tied to oil. It's essentially a huge "banana republic" dependent solely on oil and gas, and if they can't sell these commodities, the country will have problems. Because other countries profit enormously from technology like South Korea, or tourism like Turkey or the Dominican Republic, or from a banking system like Switzerland, or an open labor market like India and China. But Russia has none of these things.
The fact is, it's not just Russia itself that depends on oil; many other countries depend on purchasing this oil and gas.

It is true that the Russian economy is mainly dependent on oil and gas but that is not why it can be called a “banana republic”. Russia does not survive only by selling energy, they also play a significant role in exporting military equipment, nuclear technology, agricultural products and minerals. Although oil and gas are the backbone of their economy, many countries in the world market are dependent on these resources, such as Europe, China and even India. Therefore, if Russia cannot sell oil, then not only theirs but also the economic structure of many countries will collapse because no economy can survive alone in the modern era because it basically has to survive by depending on each other. Russia has made that reality its own because despite Western sanctions, they have created alternative markets and trade routes. Therefore, calling it simply an “oil-dependent weak economy” is nothing more than belittling the reality.

The Russian economy is very diversified, not only dependent on the energy sector. But the truth is energy exports are seen as the lifeblood of the economy and a symbol of Russia's power. If they lose this source of income, the country's economy will collapse and other industries will not be able to compensate. But the important thing is that energy is an essential need and the lifeblood of the global economy.

Meanwhile, Russia is the world's second largest energy supplier after Saudi Arabia. So if they stop supplying oil, the global economy will fall into chaos, not just their economy. So the scenario of Russia stopping oil supply will never happen.

[fillippone]

I am very interested in knowing more about the russian economy.
Of course, every news source I have bumped into so far is selling a specific agenda: international sources are trying to depict the economy as struggling and failing.
Local sources are instead claiming the economy is going well as usual, the Central Bank is as strong as ever with all the gold they bought, and life in Moscow is as beautiful as it could be elsewhere.
Which unbiased news outlet would you recommend?

[Lucius]

~snip~
Local sources are instead claiming the economy is going well as usual, the Central Bank is as strong as ever with all the gold they bought, and life in Moscow is as beautiful as it could be elsewhere.
Which unbiased news outlet would you recommend?

It's hard to find an objective source of information because Russia has been attacking an independent country for three years and doesn't even call it a war, and on the other hand, what will the EU bureaucrats say after the xx package of sanctions, which in my opinion are mostly irrelevant and late. The truth is probably somewhere in between.

As for life in the big cities of Russia, there is a semblance of normality, because as in every war, the elites live as before, while mostly the poor take up guns and do the hardest part of the work. When you look at what Russian soldiers look like, you can't escape the impression that they are mostly members of national minorities and peoples who come from remote parts of Russia. They are expendable and do not disturb the "peace" of life in big cities.

[SilverCryptoBullet]

Local sources are instead claiming the economy is going well as usual, the Central Bank is as strong as ever with all the gold they bought, and life in Moscow is as beautiful as it could be elsewhere.
Which unbiased news outlet would you recommend?

It's hard to have full truth about what's going on in Russia by lack of unbiased independent sources of information but if skipping things related to economy, I believe that the lives of Russians and many families in that nation have been no longer as good as before their 2020 war and invasions against Ukraine.

Nobody, no family can feel good and comfortable when there are children, husbands, and the loved ones died or injured severely over the last 3 years. Again, I believe that there is no need of knowing the exact number on how many Russians died or injured for this "Putin war", the fact is many people have suffered severe consequences from this war, that's more than enough to say about life quality in the nation.

Perhaps even Putin deeply inside himself also feels unwell but he is mad and wants to get what he wants with all cost when his life is counting down and even his regime in Russia is counting down.

[MFahad]

I am very interested in knowing more about the russian economy.
Of course, every news source I have bumped into so far is selling a specific agenda: international sources are trying to depict the economy as struggling and failing.
Local sources are instead claiming the economy is going well as usual, the Central Bank is as strong as ever with all the gold they bought, and life in Moscow is as beautiful as it could be elsewhere.
Which unbiased news outlet would you recommend?

Finding the unbiased information of Russia’s economy is very difficult. There are two narratives on the base of local and international sources. The international media is emphasizing that Russia’s economy is struggling while Russia’s media highlight that there is high employment, partnerships with china and India are becoming strong. But what is truth no one knows as it lies in between these two. But a stablity in Russia’s economy has been stated due to energy exports and state intervention but there are still challenges such as less investment. If we want to get a knowledge on the base of reality or facts we have to consult outlets like Reuters, BBC or The Financial Times which rely on data not on opinion. Some graphs of cross checking, GDP growth and inflation rates can clearly provide us a result.

[sunsilk]

They are dependent to themselves and with few allies, so I think that Russia should just be fine.

Remember when the US has sanctioned them with all of the financial related partners and payment processors? The US has cut them all to Russia but what Russia did?

They're able to stand on its own and they have better alternatives that works for them even if they go against the world.

Their good ties with China is also going to keep them up with the primary resources that they need, food, oil, arms, etc.

[DrBeer]

Judging by the cries of my relatives living in russia a terrorist country, the situation there is really bad.
Prices are rising rapidly, the government continues to spend reserves on the terrorist war, and social budgets are being actively reduced. But the population that supported Russian imperialism found itself hostage to its own choice
Do you want to complain about high food prices? No problem! The “tsar” and his minions are preparing a decree to “make prices low!” You asked for it, we did it! But a decree is just a piece of paper, especially one signed by the Russian authorities, it's a piece of paper that is worthless. When complainers come to the store and find that prices have not only not fallen but have risen, they realize that there is nowhere to go! The reason is simple: the government has “taken care of it,” and the fact that someone (or rather, everyone) has not lowered prices is of no interest to anyone. And if you say that the authorities are inactive, or weak and ineffective, you will be labeled either an enemy of the people or an agent of the enemy
The second “solution” in terms of quality is the usual, stupid lie for powerless slaves: “We have the lowest prices and one of the highest incomes in the world.” Not so long ago, someone from the government proved that in russia a terrorist country, the average salary is more than $3,000 He deftly manipulated the figures, GDP, and everyone seemed to be happy, but when they got home, they realized that they had been fooled again
 
And the third option, to show that “everything is fine,” is to simply deny price increases or high prices. This is done simply: a representative of the administration comes out and reads, “Carrots are 15 rubles, milk is 25 rubles, potatoes are 9 rubles, etc.,” and so on.  And very seriously concludes - “the research was conducted by the Tax Service, the Federation Council Committee, it was researched in 100,500 cities and towns, and the data is CORRECT! And if you don't believe the state, you are an enemy of the people, or ”rocking the boat of stability" :)P

[Argoo]

This means that it is about the resilience of the Russian economy that will survive until Ukraine loses or vice versa. But if I think back that I have heard from various talks in the world economic channel about 1 year ago about the Russian economy that will be destroyed but until now Russia has survived even in the midst of world sanctions. Therefore Russia seems to have thought about it long ago and has been prepared with all the threats including to maintain the country economy.

The Russian Ministry of Finance has acknowledged that the Russian budget is rapidly losing revenue due to falling oil prices and tightening sanctions. In October, revenues fell by 27% compared to the previous year.

However, as practice has shown, the most effective sanctions are those applied by the Ukrainian Armed Forces against an aggressor country.

For example, in 2025, the Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully struck 160 Russian oil production and refining facilities. In September and October of this year alone, 20 such facilities were hit. These included six oil refineries, two oil terminals, three oil depots, and nine oil pumping stations. As a result, according to the analytical company Kpler, seaborne exports of petroleum products fell by half a million barrels per day, reaching a five-year low of approximately 2 million barrels per day.

As a result of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' retaliatory actions, Russia has experienced a more than 20% shortage of petroleum products on the domestic market, 37% of its refineries are idle, there are shortages of petroleum products in 57 regions, and a ban on gasoline exports until 2026. Russia, a gas station powerhouse, has itself begun purchasing petroleum products from China, Belarus, and other countries.

Almost every night, factories explode and burn throughout Russia, ensuring the continuation of the war in Ukraine. Furthermore, as Russia, on the eve of winter, began actively attacking gas production facilities, energy companies, and anything else intended to deprive residents of heat, gas, and electricity, Ukraine has begun to respond with retaliatory measures.

[fillippone]

~snip~
Local sources are instead claiming the economy is going well as usual, the Central Bank is as strong as ever with all the gold they bought, and life in Moscow is as beautiful as it could be elsewhere.
Which unbiased news outlet would you recommend?

It's hard to find an objective source of information because Russia has been attacking an independent country for three years and doesn't even call it a war, and on the other hand, what will the EU bureaucrats say after the xx package of sanctions, which in my opinion are mostly irrelevant and late. The truth is probably somewhere in between.

As for life in the big cities of Russia, there is a semblance of normality, because as in every war, the elites live as before, while mostly the poor take up guns and do the hardest part of the work. When you look at what Russian soldiers look like, you can't escape the impression that they are mostly members of national minorities and peoples who come from remote parts of Russia. They are expendable and do not disturb the "peace" of life in big cities.

"In war, the first casualty is truth"
Information has always been a powerful weapon, and today is actually even more so.
As bot hinvolved parties know that, everyone is using all the available tools to spread their own agenda.
Finding unbiased reporters is becoming more and more difficult for an external observer. This is the reason of my original request.

[ultrloa]

~snip~
Local sources are instead claiming the economy is going well as usual, the Central Bank is as strong as ever with all the gold they bought, and life in Moscow is as beautiful as it could be elsewhere.
Which unbiased news outlet would you recommend?

It's hard to find an objective source of information because Russia has been attacking an independent country for three years and doesn't even call it a war, and on the other hand, what will the EU bureaucrats say after the xx package of sanctions, which in my opinion are mostly irrelevant and late. The truth is probably somewhere in between.

As for life in the big cities of Russia, there is a semblance of normality, because as in every war, the elites live as before, while mostly the poor take up guns and do the hardest part of the work. When you look at what Russian soldiers look like, you can't escape the impression that they are mostly members of national minorities and peoples who come from remote parts of Russia. They are expendable and do not disturb the "peace" of life in big cities.

"In war, the first casualty is truth"
Information has always been a powerful weapon, and today is actually even more so.
As bot hinvolved parties know that, everyone is using all the available tools to spread their own agenda.
Finding unbiased reporters is becoming more and more difficult for an external observer. This is the reason of my original request.

Actually truth is not vanish in times of war its been hidden by victor. They usually write their own narrative and weaponize it for their own benefit.

Information is really a powerful weapon but as long as those bad people take the lead they always throw those narratives which in favor to them and hide the truth that can destroy their reign.

That's why people need to know the intention of those people and find the other story behind on what they are telling so maybe at least they would know if they are been fooled by those people spreading those wrong information's.

[Abiky]

The Russian military sector has ceased to support the economy, and the country is facing financial collapse and rising prices. For the first time in three and a half years of military intervention in Ukraine, the Russian military-industrial complex has ceased to be the main driver of the economy. Production of tanks, armored vehicles, and metal products has plummeted: in September, the decline ranged from 6% to 20%.

Rosstat conceals the scale of the crisis, but even the official figures are staggering: GDP growth has stalled, budget revenues have fallen by 21%, and the deficit is five times higher than planned.

Starting January 1, the Kremlin is raising the VAT rate to 22% and eliminating benefits for small businesses, effectively siphoning off middle-class funds to finance the war. Entrepreneurs are closing their businesses, and Putin can no longer control the situation even in the food market. Gazprom has shifted its losses to the population, the Ministry of Finance is cutting spending, and new US sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil are depriving Russia of the Indian market. The only major buyer is China, but on October 30th in Busan, Trump and Xi will discuss the future of the aggressor country – without Russia.

When a warring state is unable to even maintain its own armed forces, it's not just a crisis—it's a financial collapse. To avoid becoming a permanent colony of China, Russia has only one option: end the war and save the economy. Which path will Russia choose, given that ending the war in Ukraine is mortally dangerous for both Putin himself and his regime as a whole?

The economic impact of Russia's war against Ukraine has been negative. But the country has been able to survive thanks to its partnership with China, India, and surrounding allies. Especially China and India which are the biggest customers of Russian oil. China has been giving tech to Russia, too. Even North Korea assisted Russia in the war.

Many are saying sanctions against Russia have backfired against the West, as Russia has found an alternative to keep supporting its economy. Now it is planning to adopt cryptocurrencies for cross-border payments. All in an attempt to effectively circumvent/bypass sanctions. Since crypto is decentralized, it would be almost impossible to take down. How would Russia be stopped? There is simply no way. Putin will continue with the war until Russia claims victory for good. The West is already losing a lot of money by supplying weapons to Ukraine. Everybody loses in this game. We will see what the outcome of the war will be during the remainder of the year. Here's hoping for the best.

[kasablings]

Russian economy must face a financial collapse, because there no way you are in a war with another country and you expect you economy to be stable.the Russian government puttin regime is sending more time and finance on weapons and amor and other countries are not doing business right now with Russia cause of the war.so they are not stable enough to grow there economy instead they are rebuilding there losses too.thete is no country that will be in war and you expect there economy not to collapse.

[Iranus]

The economic impact of Russia's war against Ukraine has been negative. But the country has been able to survive thanks to its partnership with China, India, and surrounding allies. Especially China and India which are the biggest customers of Russian oil. China has been giving tech to Russia, too. Even North Korea assisted Russia in the war.

Many are saying sanctions against Russia have backfired against the West, as Russia has found an alternative to keep supporting its economy. Now it is planning to adopt cryptocurrencies for cross-border payments. All in an attempt to effectively circumvent/bypass sanctions. Since crypto is decentralized, it would be almost impossible to take down. How would Russia be stopped? There is simply no way. Putin will continue with the war until Russia claims victory for good. The West is already losing a lot of money by supplying weapons to Ukraine. Everybody loses in this game. We will see what the outcome of the war will be during the remainder of the year. Here's hoping for the best.

There is no denying the close ties between Russia, China, India or North Korea. But it should also be noted that they are one of the world's leading suppliers of oil, gas, coal and uranium. That means the world is somewhat dependent on them and this is a mutually beneficial relationship, not that Russia is a passive country in this case.

Not only China, India but even the US cannot stop depending on Russia. They don't need oil and gas, but they are heavily dependent on uranium from Russia.

Even without crypto, Russia still has other solutions, there is no shortage of ways to transact outside the US and EU financial systems.
The war started in 2022 but they officially implemented cryptocurrency as a full alternative in early 2024, which shows Russia is not short of solutions.